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With its abundant water resources, Scotland has ambitions to become a 'hydro nation'. Hydroclimatological projections indicate that the spatial and temporal distribution of water is likely to change, with parts of Scotland becoming significantly drier. This study looked to identify which regions and sectors may be subject to increased water scarcity pressures in the near-future (2020-2049). Serving as a scoping exercise, this study was conducted in conjunction with the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA). Accounting for more than 99% of (non-public water) surface water abstractions, four key water using sectors were considered: agriculture, aquaculture (finfish), hydropower (with storage; excluding run-of-river (ROR)) and whisky. Drought events, defined by SEPA as a period where daily flow falls below a long-term Q95 threshold for more than 30-days, were profiled in terms of their average frequency, duration and intensity (over a 30-year time slice). Hotspots of future drought and abstraction pressure were identified. The projected impact of the hydropower sector on drought was disproportionate (lower) relative to the volume of water abstracted. Two key hotspots identified were the rivers Spey and Tay, which represent the centres of the Scotch whisky sector and agriculture respectively. A median of three drought events were found to occur on the baseline (1975-2005). Under climate change, this frequency could see a two or three-fold increase (median 2-7 events between 2020-2049). The direction of the change in average duration was more uncertain (median change of 0-4 days per event). The results indicated that abstraction exacerbated the pressure. Capturing different sources of uncertainty, the hydroclimatological data was drawn from two climate ensembles, a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE, parameter uncertainty) and a multi-model ensemble (MME, structural uncertainty). Overall, the PPE was found to have narrower uncertainty bounds overall, though the MME was subject to less uncertainty in specific locales in the north. These results highlight the limitation of focussing on one ensemble type / source of ensemble uncertainty in such a diverse domain. The limitations identified represent significant scope for further work - this is vital in terms of the Scottish islands and west coast, which were not captured by either hydroclimatological ensemble (only 60% of the Scottish mainland was covered by projections). Overall, the paper demonstrates the need for a consistent approach to future water resource planning across Scotland. This planning must consider all sectors consistently and requires cross-sector and cross-disciplinary input and collaboration in order to facilitate wise use of future water resources.
Annie Visser-Quinn; Lindsay Beevers; Tiffany Lau; Richard Gosling. Mapping future water scarcity in a water abundant nation: Near-term projections for Scotland. Climate Risk Management 2021, 32, 100302 .
AMA StyleAnnie Visser-Quinn, Lindsay Beevers, Tiffany Lau, Richard Gosling. Mapping future water scarcity in a water abundant nation: Near-term projections for Scotland. Climate Risk Management. 2021; 32 ():100302.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAnnie Visser-Quinn; Lindsay Beevers; Tiffany Lau; Richard Gosling. 2021. "Mapping future water scarcity in a water abundant nation: Near-term projections for Scotland." Climate Risk Management 32, no. : 100302.
In this paper, we explore how we can use catchment resilience as a unifying concept to manage and regulate catchments, using structured reviews to support our perspective. Catchments are complex systems with interrelated natural, social, and technical aspects. The exposure, vulnerability, and resilience of these aspects (separately and in combination) are the latent conditions, which, when triggered by a hydrohazard, result in catchment impacts. In complex catchment systems, resilience is the ability to bounce back, the ability to absorb, and the ability to transform. When all three abilities are accounted for, we are forced to consider the interactions of the catchment system. Six main complexity concepts can be used to frame how we approach evaluating catchment resilience. These concepts are: natural-social-technical aspects, interactions, spatial scales, time scales, multiple forms of evidence, and uncertainty. In analysing these complexity concepts, we have found that there are several gaps in current practice. Requirements for future methodological approaches are suggested. Central to any effective approach is the incorporation of a linking systems or interaction analysis, which draws together the natural-social-technical system in a meaningful way. If our approaches do not begin to acknowledge the interdependencies and interactions, we may miss substantial opportunities to enhance catchment resilience.
Lindsay Beevers; Melissa Bedinger; Kerri McClymont; Annie Visser-Quinn. Resilience in Complex Catchment Systems. Water 2021, 13, 541 .
AMA StyleLindsay Beevers, Melissa Bedinger, Kerri McClymont, Annie Visser-Quinn. Resilience in Complex Catchment Systems. Water. 2021; 13 (4):541.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLindsay Beevers; Melissa Bedinger; Kerri McClymont; Annie Visser-Quinn. 2021. "Resilience in Complex Catchment Systems." Water 13, no. 4: 541.
With evidence suggesting that climate change is resulting in changes within the hydrologic cycle, the ability to robustly model hydroclimatic response is critical. This paper assesses how extreme runoff—1:2- and 1:30-year return period (RP) events—may change at a regional level across the UK by the 2080s (2069–2098). Capturing uncertainty in the hydroclimatic modelling chain, flow projections were extracted from the EDgE (End-to-end Demonstrator for improved decision-making in the water sector in Europe) multi-model ensemble: five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) General Circulation Models and four hydrological models forced under emissions scenarios Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5 (5 × 4 × 2 chains). Uncertainty in extreme value parameterisation was captured through consideration of two methods: generalised extreme value (GEV) and generalised logistic (GL). The method was applied across 192 catchments and aggregated to eight regions. The results suggest that, by the 2080s, many regions could experience large increases in extreme runoff, with a maximum mean change signal of +34% exhibited in East Scotland (1:2-year RP). Combined with increasing urbanisation, these estimates paint a concerning picture for the future UK flood landscape. Model chain uncertainty was found to increase by the 2080s, though extreme value (EV) parameter uncertainty becomes dominant at the 1:30-year RP (exceeding 60% in some regions), highlighting the importance of capturing both the associated EV parameter and ensemble uncertainty.
Cameron Ellis; Annie Visser-Quinn; Gordon Aitken; Lindsay Beevers. Quantifying Uncertainty in the Modelling Process; Future Extreme Flood Event Projections Across the UK. Geosciences 2021, 11, 33 .
AMA StyleCameron Ellis, Annie Visser-Quinn, Gordon Aitken, Lindsay Beevers. Quantifying Uncertainty in the Modelling Process; Future Extreme Flood Event Projections Across the UK. Geosciences. 2021; 11 (1):33.
Chicago/Turabian StyleCameron Ellis; Annie Visser-Quinn; Gordon Aitken; Lindsay Beevers. 2021. "Quantifying Uncertainty in the Modelling Process; Future Extreme Flood Event Projections Across the UK." Geosciences 11, no. 1: 33.
Floods are the most common and widely distributed natural hazard, threatening life and property worldwide. Governments worldwide are facing significant challenges associated with flood hazard, specifically: increasing urbanization; against the background of uncertainty associated with increasing climate variability under climate change. Thus, flood hazard assessments need to consider climate change uncertainties explicitly. This paper explores the role of climate change uncertainty through uncertainty analysis in flood modelling through a probabilistic framework using a Monte Carlo approach and is demonstrated for case study catchment. Different input, structure and parameter uncertainties were investigated to understand how important the role of a non-stationary climate may be on future extreme flood events. Results suggest that inflow uncertainties are the most influential in order to capture the range of uncertainty in inundation extent, more important than hydraulic model parameter uncertainty, and thus, the influence of non-stationarity of climate on inundation extent is critical to capture. Topographic controls are shown to create tipping points in the inundation–flow relationship, and these may be useful and important to quantify for future planning and policy. Full Monte Carlo analysis within the probabilistic framework is computationally expensive, and there is a need to explore more time-efficient strategies which may result in a similar estimate of the full uncertainty. Simple uncertainty quantification techniques such as Latin hypercube sampling approaches were tested to reduce computational burden.
Lindsay Beevers; Lila Collet; Gordon Aitken; Claire Maravat; Annie Visser-Quinn. The influence of climate model uncertainty on fluvial flood hazard estimation. Natural Hazards 2020, 104, 2489 -2510.
AMA StyleLindsay Beevers, Lila Collet, Gordon Aitken, Claire Maravat, Annie Visser-Quinn. The influence of climate model uncertainty on fluvial flood hazard estimation. Natural Hazards. 2020; 104 (3):2489-2510.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLindsay Beevers; Lila Collet; Gordon Aitken; Claire Maravat; Annie Visser-Quinn. 2020. "The influence of climate model uncertainty on fluvial flood hazard estimation." Natural Hazards 104, no. 3: 2489-2510.
This paper argues that urban systems issues are design problems on a grand scale, and that various disciplines aiming to address them can have only a partial view of the problem. It is necessary to draw boundaries around the detailed analyses of specific issues, but a way to map the wider system, to contextualise and more deeply understand how they are interrelated, is still lacking. Four complexity obstacles related to reasoning about complex systems are in our way, and to our knowledge no existing approach navigates them effectively. We propose a tool called the Abstraction Hierarchy as a way to do just this, in order to frame complex issues on a large scale, in a way accessible to all disciplines. To demonstrate the power of this systems model, the Abstraction Hierarchy is applied to an urban area. Through its application we demonstrate its capability to navigate all four obstacles, and investigate previously unexplored space in urban systems research.
M. Bedinger; Lindsay Beevers; Guy Walker; Annie Visser-Quinn; K. McClymont. Urban Systems: Mapping Interdependencies and Outcomes to Support Systems Thinking. Earth's Future 2020, 8, 1 .
AMA StyleM. Bedinger, Lindsay Beevers, Guy Walker, Annie Visser-Quinn, K. McClymont. Urban Systems: Mapping Interdependencies and Outcomes to Support Systems Thinking. Earth's Future. 2020; 8 (3):1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleM. Bedinger; Lindsay Beevers; Guy Walker; Annie Visser-Quinn; K. McClymont. 2020. "Urban Systems: Mapping Interdependencies and Outcomes to Support Systems Thinking." Earth's Future 8, no. 3: 1.
Hydrological models can be used to assess the impact of hydrologic alteration on the river ecosystem. However, there are considerable limitations and uncertainties associated with the replication of ecologically relevant hydrological indicators. Vogel and Sankarasubramanian's 2003 (Water Resources Research) covariance approach to model evaluation and parameterization represents a shift away from algorithmic model calibration with traditional performance measures (objective functions). Using the covariance structures of the observed input and simulated output time series, it is possible to assess whether the selected hydrological model is able to capture the relevant underlying processes. From this plausible parameter space, the region of parameter space which best captures (replicates) the characteristics of a hydrological indicator may be identified. In this study, a modified covariance approach is applied to five hydrologically diverse case study catchments with a view to replicating a suite of ecologically relevant hydrological indicators identified through catchment-specific hydroecological models. The identification of the plausible parameter space (here n≈20) is based on the statistical importance of these indicators. Evaluation is with respect to performance and consistency across each catchment, parameter set, and the 40 ecologically relevant hydrological indicators considered. Timing and rate of change indicators are the best and worst replicated respectively. Relative to previous studies, an overall improvement in consistency is observed. This study represents an important advancement towards the robust application of hydrological models for ecological flow studies.
Annie Visser-Quinn; Lindsay Beevers; Sandhya Patidar. Replication of ecologically relevant hydrological indicators following a modified covariance approach to hydrological model parameterization. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2019, 23, 3279 -3303.
AMA StyleAnnie Visser-Quinn, Lindsay Beevers, Sandhya Patidar. Replication of ecologically relevant hydrological indicators following a modified covariance approach to hydrological model parameterization. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 2019; 23 (8):3279-3303.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAnnie Visser-Quinn; Lindsay Beevers; Sandhya Patidar. 2019. "Replication of ecologically relevant hydrological indicators following a modified covariance approach to hydrological model parameterization." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 23, no. 8: 3279-3303.
Annie Visser-Quinn. Review of hess-2019-199. 2019, 1 .
AMA StyleAnnie Visser-Quinn. Review of hess-2019-199. . 2019; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAnnie Visser-Quinn. 2019. "Review of hess-2019-199." , no. : 1.
There exists an increasing need to understand the impact of climate change on the hydrological extremes of flood and drought, collectively referred to as ‘hydro-hazards’. At present, current methodology are limited in their scope, particularly with respect to inadequate representation of the uncertainty in the hydroclimatological modelling chain. This paper proposes spatially consistent comprehensive impact and uncertainty methodological framework for the identification of compound hydro-hazard hotspots – hotspots of change where concurrent increase in mean annual flood and drought events is projected. We apply a quasi-ergodic analysis of variance (QE-ANOVA) framework, to detail both the magnitude and the sources of uncertainty in the modelling chain for the mean projected mean change signal whilst accounting for non-stationarity. The framework is designed for application across a wide geographical range and is thus readily transferable. We illustrate the ability of the framework through application to 239 UK catchments based on hydroclimatological projections from the EDgE project (5 CMIP5-GCMs and 3 HMs, forced under RCP8.5). The results indicate that half of the projected hotspots are temporally concurrent or temporally successive within the year, exacerbating potential impacts on society. The north-east of Scotland and south-west of the UK were identified as spatio-temporally compound hotspot regions and are of particular concern. This intensification of the hydrologic dynamic (timing and seasonality of hydro-hazards) over a limited time frame represents a major challenge for future water management. Hydrological models were identified as the largest source of variability, in some instances exceeding 80% of the total variance. Critically, clear spatial variability in the sources of modelling uncertainty were also observed; highlighting the need to apply a spatially consistent methodology, such as that presented. This application raises important questions regarding the spatial variability of hydroclimatological modelling uncertainty. In terms of water management planning, such findings allow for more focussed studies with a view to improving the projections which inform the adaptation process.
Annie Visser-Quinn; Lindsay Beevers; Lila Collet; Guiseppe Formetta; Katie Smith; Niko Wanders; Stephan Thober; Ming Pan; Rohini Kumar. Spatio-temporal analysis of compound hydro-hazard extremes across the UK. Advances in Water Resources 2019, 130, 77 -90.
AMA StyleAnnie Visser-Quinn, Lindsay Beevers, Lila Collet, Guiseppe Formetta, Katie Smith, Niko Wanders, Stephan Thober, Ming Pan, Rohini Kumar. Spatio-temporal analysis of compound hydro-hazard extremes across the UK. Advances in Water Resources. 2019; 130 ():77-90.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAnnie Visser-Quinn; Lindsay Beevers; Lila Collet; Guiseppe Formetta; Katie Smith; Niko Wanders; Stephan Thober; Ming Pan; Rohini Kumar. 2019. "Spatio-temporal analysis of compound hydro-hazard extremes across the UK." Advances in Water Resources 130, no. : 77-90.
Climate change represents a major threat to lotic freshwater ecosystems and their ability to support the provision of ecosystem services. England’s chalk streams are in a poor state of health, with significant concerns regarding their resilience, the ability to adapt, under a changing climate. This paper aims to quantify the effect of climate change on hydroecological response for the River Nar, south-east England. To this end, we apply a coupled hydrological and hydroecological modelling framework, with the UK probabilistic climate projections 2009 (UKCP09) weather generator serving as input (CMIP3 A1B high emissions scenario, 2021 to the end-of-century). The results indicate a minimal change in the long-term mean hydroecological response over this period. In terms of interannual variability, the median hydroecological response is subject to increased uncertainty, whilst lower probability extremes are virtually certain to become more homogeneous (assuming a high emissions scenario). A functional matrix, relating species-level macroinvertebrate functional flow preferences to functional food groups reveals that, on the baseline, under extreme conditions, key groups are underrepresented. To date, despite this limited range, the River Nar has been able to adapt to extreme events due to interannual variation. In the future, this variation is greatly reduced, raising real concerns over the resilience of the river ecosystem, and chalk ecosystems more generally, under climate change.
Annie Visser; Lindsay Beevers; Sandhya Patidar. The Impact of Climate Change on Hydroecological Response in Chalk Streams. Water 2019, 11, 596 .
AMA StyleAnnie Visser, Lindsay Beevers, Sandhya Patidar. The Impact of Climate Change on Hydroecological Response in Chalk Streams. Water. 2019; 11 (3):596.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAnnie Visser; Lindsay Beevers; Sandhya Patidar. 2019. "The Impact of Climate Change on Hydroecological Response in Chalk Streams." Water 11, no. 3: 596.
Climate change is a product of the Anthropocene, and the human–nature system in which we live. Effective climate change adaptation requires that we acknowledge this complexity. Theoretical literature on sustainability transitions has highlighted this and called for deeper acknowledgment of systems complexity in our research practices. Are we heeding these calls for ‘systems’ research? We used hydrohazards (floods and droughts) as an example research area to explore this question. We first distilled existing challenges for complex human–nature systems into six central concepts: Uncertainty, multiple spatial scales, multiple time scales, multimethod approaches, human–nature dimensions, and interactions. We then performed a systematic assessment of 737 articles to examine patterns in what methods are used and how these cover the complexity concepts. In general, results showed that many papers do not reference any of the complexity concepts, and no existing approach addresses all six. We used the detailed results to guide advancement from theoretical calls for action to specific next steps. Future research priorities include the development of methods for consideration of multiple hazards; for the study of interactions, particularly in linking the short- to medium-term time scales; to reduce data-intensivity; and to better integrate bottom–up and top–down approaches in a way that connects local context with higher-level decision-making. Overall this paper serves to build a shared conceptualisation of human–nature system complexity, map current practice, and navigate a complexity-smart trajectory for future research.
Melissa Bedinger; Lindsay Beevers; Lila Collet; Annie Visser. Are We Doing ‘Systems’ Research? An Assessment of Methods for Climate Change Adaptation to Hydrohazards in a Complex World. Sustainability 2019, 11, 1163 .
AMA StyleMelissa Bedinger, Lindsay Beevers, Lila Collet, Annie Visser. Are We Doing ‘Systems’ Research? An Assessment of Methods for Climate Change Adaptation to Hydrohazards in a Complex World. Sustainability. 2019; 11 (4):1163.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMelissa Bedinger; Lindsay Beevers; Lila Collet; Annie Visser. 2019. "Are We Doing ‘Systems’ Research? An Assessment of Methods for Climate Change Adaptation to Hydrohazards in a Complex World." Sustainability 11, no. 4: 1163.
Annie Visser-Quinn. Author response to comments. 2019, 1 .
AMA StyleAnnie Visser-Quinn. Author response to comments. . 2019; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAnnie Visser-Quinn. 2019. "Author response to comments." , no. : 1.
Annie Visser-Quinn. Author response to comments. 2019, 1 .
AMA StyleAnnie Visser-Quinn. Author response to comments. . 2019; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAnnie Visser-Quinn. 2019. "Author response to comments." , no. : 1.
Annie Visser-Quinn. Author response to comments. 2019, 1 .
AMA StyleAnnie Visser-Quinn. Author response to comments. . 2019; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAnnie Visser-Quinn. 2019. "Author response to comments." , no. : 1.
Rivers are among the ecosystems most sensitive to climate change. Whilst methods quantifying the impact and uncertainty of climate change on flow regime are well-established, the impact on hydroecological response is not well understood. Typically, investigative methods are qualitative in nature or follow quantitative methods of limited scope, whilst the effect of uncertainty is frequently minimised. This paper proposes a coupled hydrological and hydroecological modelling framework to assess the impact of climate change on hydroecological response quantitatively. The characterisation and reduction of modelling uncertainties was critical to the development of the framework. The ability of the framework is illustrated through application to a case study river, the River Nar, Norfolk, England, using the UKCP09 probabilistic climate projections (high emissions scenario, SRES A1F1). The results show that, by the 2050s, a reduction in instream biodiversity is virtually certain if future emissions follow the assumptions of SRES A1F1. Disruption to the natural low flow processes, essential to ecosystem functioning, is also indicated. These findings highlight the importance of the framework in water resources adaptation, particularly with respect to future environmental flows management.
Annie Gallagher Visser; Lindsay Beevers; Sandhya Patidar. A coupled modelling framework to assess the hydroecological impact of climate change. Environmental Modelling & Software 2019, 114, 12 -28.
AMA StyleAnnie Gallagher Visser, Lindsay Beevers, Sandhya Patidar. A coupled modelling framework to assess the hydroecological impact of climate change. Environmental Modelling & Software. 2019; 114 ():12-28.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAnnie Gallagher Visser; Lindsay Beevers; Sandhya Patidar. 2019. "A coupled modelling framework to assess the hydroecological impact of climate change." Environmental Modelling & Software 114, no. : 12-28.
Annie Visser-Quinn. Update. 2019, 1 .
AMA StyleAnnie Visser-Quinn. Update. . 2019; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAnnie Visser-Quinn. 2019. "Update." , no. : 1.
Annie Visser-Quinn. Update. 2019, 1 .
AMA StyleAnnie Visser-Quinn. Update. . 2019; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAnnie Visser-Quinn. 2019. "Update." , no. : 1.
Hydrological models can be used to assess the impact of hydrologic alteration on the river ecosystem. However, there are considerable limitations and uncertainties associated with the replication of the required, ecologically relevant hydrological indicators. Vogel and Sankarasubramanian's covariance approach to model parameterisation represents a shift away from the traditional calibration-validation goodness-of-fit paradigm. Using the covariance structures of the observed input and simulated output time-series, the region of parameter space which best captures (replicates) the characteristics of a hydrological indicator may be identified. Through a case study, a modified covariance approach is applied with a view to replicating a suite of seven ecologically relevant hydrological indicators. Model performance and consistency are assessed relative to four comparative studies. The ability of the approach to address the limitations associated with traditional calibration-validation is further considered. Benefits of the approach include an overall reduction in model uncertainty whilst also reducing overall time-demands. Difficulties in the replication of complex indicators, such as rate of change, are in line with prior work. Nonetheless, the study illustrates that consistency in the replication of hydrological indicators is achievable; additionally, the replication of magnitude indices is markedly improved upon.
Annie Visser; Lindsay Beevers; Sandhya Patidar. Replication of ecologically relevant hydrological indicators following a covariance approach to hydrological model parameterisation. 2018, 2018, 1 -24.
AMA StyleAnnie Visser, Lindsay Beevers, Sandhya Patidar. Replication of ecologically relevant hydrological indicators following a covariance approach to hydrological model parameterisation. . 2018; 2018 ():1-24.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAnnie Visser; Lindsay Beevers; Sandhya Patidar. 2018. "Replication of ecologically relevant hydrological indicators following a covariance approach to hydrological model parameterisation." 2018, no. : 1-24.
River systems provide diverse ecosystem services (ES), such as flood regulation (regulating), fresh water (provisioning), nutrient cycling (supporting), and recreation (cultural), among others. The construction of infrastructure (e.g., for hydropower, irrigation) enhances the delivery of tangible ES for example food or energy (generally provisioning) to meet human needs. However, the resulting change to river flows threatens both the ecological health of a river and its ability to provide intangible but vital ES, for example those which support the delivery of other services. Understanding these supporting ES processes in river systems is essential to fully recognise the impact of water resources development on ES delivery. Whilst approaches for assessing instream supporting ES are under development, to date few provide quantitative methods for assessing delivery. Thus, this paper sets out a framework for the assessment of instream supporting ES using hydroecological modelling. It links supporting ES delivery to fluvial hydrological indicators through the use of ecologically relevant hydrological indices and macroinvertebrate flow preferences. The proposed framework is demonstrated on the Beas River basin (Western Himalayas, India), and is flexible enough to be transferred to a basin-wide model, thereby allowing ES relationships to be accounted for in basin-wide water resources planning.
Sikhululekile Ncube; Annie Visser; Lindsay Beevers. A Framework for Assessing Instream Supporting Ecosystem Services Based on Hydroecological Modelling. Water 2018, 10, 1247 .
AMA StyleSikhululekile Ncube, Annie Visser, Lindsay Beevers. A Framework for Assessing Instream Supporting Ecosystem Services Based on Hydroecological Modelling. Water. 2018; 10 (9):1247.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSikhululekile Ncube; Annie Visser; Lindsay Beevers. 2018. "A Framework for Assessing Instream Supporting Ecosystem Services Based on Hydroecological Modelling." Water 10, no. 9: 1247.
Understanding of the hydroecological relationship is vital to maintaining the health of the river and thus its ecosystem. Stepwise selection is widely used to develop numerical models which represent these processes. Increasingly, however, there are questions over the suitability of the approach, and coupled with the increasing complexity of hydroecological modelling, there is a real need to consider alternative approaches. In this study, stepwise selection and information theory are employed to develop models which represent two realizations of the system which recognizes increasing complexity. The two approaches are assessed in terms of model structure, modelling error, and model (statistical) uncertainty. The results appear initially inconclusive, with the information theory approach leading to a reduction in modelling error but greater uncertainty. A Monte Carlo approach, used to explore this uncertainty, revealed modelling errors to be only slightly more distributed for the information theory approach. Consideration of the philosophical underpinnings of the two approaches provides greater clarity. Statistical uncertainty, as measured by information theory, will always be greater due to its consideration of two sources, parameter and model selection. Consequently, by encompassing greater information, the measure of statistical uncertainty is more realistic, making an information theory approach more reflective of the complexity in real‐world applications.
Annie Gallagher Visser; Lindsay Beevers; Sandhya Patidar. Complexity in hydroecological modelling: A comparison of stepwise selection and information theory. River Research and Applications 2018, 34, 1045 -1056.
AMA StyleAnnie Gallagher Visser, Lindsay Beevers, Sandhya Patidar. Complexity in hydroecological modelling: A comparison of stepwise selection and information theory. River Research and Applications. 2018; 34 (8):1045-1056.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAnnie Gallagher Visser; Lindsay Beevers; Sandhya Patidar. 2018. "Complexity in hydroecological modelling: A comparison of stepwise selection and information theory." River Research and Applications 34, no. 8: 1045-1056.
River systems provide a diverse range of ecosystem services, examples include: flood regulation (regulating), fish (provisioning), nutrient cycling (supporting) and recreation (cultural). Developing water resources through the construction of dams (hydropower or irrigation) can enhance the delivery of provisioning ecosystem services. However, these hydrologic alterations result in reductions in less tangible regulating, cultural and supporting ecosystem services. This study seeks to understand how multiple impoundments, abstractions and transfers within the upper Beas River Basin, Western Himalayas, India, are affecting the delivery of supporting ecosystem services. Whilst approaches for assessing supporting ecosystem services are under development, the immediate aim of this paper is to set out a framework for their quantification, using the macroinvertebrate index Lotic-Invertebrate Index for Flow Evaluation (LIFE). LIFE is a weighted measure of the flow velocity preferences of the macroinvertebrate community. Flow records from multiple gauging stations within the basin were used to investigate flow variability at seasonal, inter-annual and decadal time scales. The findings show that both mean monthly and seasonal cumulative flows have decreased over time in the Beas River Basin. A positive hydroecological relationship between LIFE and flow was also identified, indicative of macroinvertebrate response to seasonal changes in the flow regime. For example, high LIFE scores (7.7–9.3) in the winter and summer seasons indicate an abundance of macroinvertebrates with a preference for high flows; this represents a high potential for instream supporting ecosystem services delivery. However, further analysis is required to understand these hydroecological interactions in the study basin and the impact on instream supporting ecosystem services delivery.
Sikhululekile Ncube; Lindsay Beevers; Adebayo J. Adeloye; Annie Visser. Assessment of freshwater ecosystem services in the Beas River Basin, Himalayas region, India. Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences 2018, 379, 67 -72.
AMA StyleSikhululekile Ncube, Lindsay Beevers, Adebayo J. Adeloye, Annie Visser. Assessment of freshwater ecosystem services in the Beas River Basin, Himalayas region, India. Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences. 2018; 379 ():67-72.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSikhululekile Ncube; Lindsay Beevers; Adebayo J. Adeloye; Annie Visser. 2018. "Assessment of freshwater ecosystem services in the Beas River Basin, Himalayas region, India." Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences 379, no. : 67-72.