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Dr. Muhammad Usman
University of Halle

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0 Climate Change
0 Groundwater
0 Water Resources
0 Remote sensing & GIS applications
0 Land Use Land Cover Changes

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Journal article
Published: 01 December 2020 in Water
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This study presented the spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme precipitation events in the Northern Highlands of Pakistan (NHPK). Daily precipitation observations of 30 in situ meteorological stations from 1961 to 2014 were used to estimate the 11 extreme precipitation indices. Additionally, trends in time distribution patterns (TDPs) and return periods were also investigated for event based extreme precipitations (EEP). Results found that the precipitation events with an amount of 160–320 mm and with a concentration ratio of 0.8–1.0 and a duration of 4–7 consecutive days were dominant. The frequency of heavy, very heavy and extremely heavy precipitation days decreased, whereas the frequency of wet, very wet and extremely wet days increased. Most of the indices, generally, showed an increasing trend from the northeast to middle parts. The extreme precipitation events of the 20 and 50-year return period were more common in the western and central areas of NHPK. Moreover, the 20 and 50-year return levels depicted higher values (up to 420 mm) for an event duration with all daily precipitation extremes dispersed in the first half (TDP1) in the Chitral, Panjkora and Jhelum Rivers basins, whilst the maximum values (up to 700 mm) for an event duration with all daily precipitation extremes dispersed in the second half (TDP2) were observed in the eastern part of the NHPK for 20-year and eastern and south-west for 50-year, respectively.

ACS Style

Muhammad Zaman; Ijaz Ahmad; Muhammad Usman; Muhammad Saifullah; Muhammad Naveed Anjum; Muhammad Imran Khan; Muhammad Uzair Qamar. Event-Based Time Distribution Patterns, Return Levels, and Their Trends of Extreme Precipitation across Indus Basin. Water 2020, 12, 3373 .

AMA Style

Muhammad Zaman, Ijaz Ahmad, Muhammad Usman, Muhammad Saifullah, Muhammad Naveed Anjum, Muhammad Imran Khan, Muhammad Uzair Qamar. Event-Based Time Distribution Patterns, Return Levels, and Their Trends of Extreme Precipitation across Indus Basin. Water. 2020; 12 (12):3373.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Muhammad Zaman; Ijaz Ahmad; Muhammad Usman; Muhammad Saifullah; Muhammad Naveed Anjum; Muhammad Imran Khan; Muhammad Uzair Qamar. 2020. "Event-Based Time Distribution Patterns, Return Levels, and Their Trends of Extreme Precipitation across Indus Basin." Water 12, no. 12: 3373.

Review
Published: 01 December 2020 in Water Security
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Irrigated agriculture In the Aral Sea Basin (ASB) is commonly known for its high water consumption, inefficient water management, and dysfunctional irrigation and drainage infrastructure. Since 1991, six states have been engaged in intensive irrigated agriculture in the Aral Sea Basin (ASB), Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. In this region, irrigated agriculture is commonly known for its high water consumption, inefficient water management, and dysfunctional irrigation and drainage infrastructure. Extensive land degradation (e.g., soil salinization) is considered as the main result of mismanagement in the irrigation sector and sustainable solutions are urgently required. This study analysed international peer-reviewed scientific studies based on satellite remote sensing (RS) products and methods addressing potential improvements of irrigation water and land management in the ASB. Ways to transfer RS-based knowledge into practice were discussed using the example of the online tool WUEMoCA that was developed from 2015 to 2019 within the German Water Initiative in Central Asia (CAWa). For the period 2008–2019, a total of 49 studies contributed knowledge about land use, soils and vegetation, crop production and use of irrigation water in the ASB. The use of RS revealed increased diversification of agricultural production, spatial-temporal patterns of land degradation, and effects of varying water availability on cropping intensity. Modelling of crop yields and evapotranspiration at varying scales (i.e., farm to provincial scale) underlined the comparably moderate water productivity in the ASB. One relevant future research task is to intensively collect in-situ data for validation and secondary data and hence to mitigate the situation. In particular, improved socio-ecological and economic information could help to better understand the spatially differing drivers of soil and land degradation. Eventually, this study provides relevant information and data sources for decision-making and requirements for better integration of RS-based information into practice using online-tools like WUEMoCA.

ACS Style

Christopher Conrad; Muhammad Usman; Lucia Morper-Busch; Sarah Schönbrodt-Stitt. Remote sensing-based assessments of land use, soil and vegetation status, crop production and water use in irrigation systems of the Aral Sea Basin. A review. Water Security 2020, 11, 100078 .

AMA Style

Christopher Conrad, Muhammad Usman, Lucia Morper-Busch, Sarah Schönbrodt-Stitt. Remote sensing-based assessments of land use, soil and vegetation status, crop production and water use in irrigation systems of the Aral Sea Basin. A review. Water Security. 2020; 11 ():100078.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Christopher Conrad; Muhammad Usman; Lucia Morper-Busch; Sarah Schönbrodt-Stitt. 2020. "Remote sensing-based assessments of land use, soil and vegetation status, crop production and water use in irrigation systems of the Aral Sea Basin. A review." Water Security 11, no. : 100078.

Journal article
Published: 16 November 2020 in Sustainability
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Water crises are becoming severe in recent times, further fueled by population increase and climate change. They result in complex and unsustainable water management. Spatial estimation of consumptive water use is vital for performance assessment of the irrigation system using Remote Sensing (RS). For this study, its estimation is done using the Soil Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) approach. Performance indicators including equity, adequacy, and reliability were worked out at various spatiotemporal scales. Moreover, optimization and sustainable use of water resources are not possible without knowing the factors mainly influencing consumptive water use of major crops. For that purpose, random forest regression modelling was employed using various sets of factors for site-specific, proximity, and cropping system. The results show that the system is underperforming both for Kharif (i.e., summer) and Rabi (i.e., winter) seasons. Performance indicators highlight poor water distribution in the system, a shortage of water supply, and unreliability. The results are relatively good for Rabi as compared to Kharif, with an overall poor situation for both seasons. Factors importance varies for different crops. Overall, distance from canal, road density, canal density, and farm approachability are the most important factors for explaining consumptive water use. Auditing of consumptive water use shows the potential for resource optimization through on-farm water management by the targeted approach. The results are based on the present situation without considering future changes in canal water supply and consumptive water use under climate change.

ACS Style

Muhammad Usman; Talha Mahmood; Christopher Conrad; Habib Bodla. Remote Sensing and Modelling Based Framework for Valuing Irrigation System Efficiency and Steering Indicators of Consumptive Water Use in an Irrigated Region. Sustainability 2020, 12, 9535 .

AMA Style

Muhammad Usman, Talha Mahmood, Christopher Conrad, Habib Bodla. Remote Sensing and Modelling Based Framework for Valuing Irrigation System Efficiency and Steering Indicators of Consumptive Water Use in an Irrigated Region. Sustainability. 2020; 12 (22):9535.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Muhammad Usman; Talha Mahmood; Christopher Conrad; Habib Bodla. 2020. "Remote Sensing and Modelling Based Framework for Valuing Irrigation System Efficiency and Steering Indicators of Consumptive Water Use in an Irrigated Region." Sustainability 12, no. 22: 9535.

Journal article
Published: 09 October 2020 in Atmosphere
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Water resources are highly dependent on climatic variations. The quantification of climate change impacts on surface water availability is critical for agriculture production and flood management. The current study focuses on the projected streamflow variations in the transboundary Mangla Dam watershed. Precipitation and temperature changes combined with future water assessment in the watershed are projected by applying multiple downscaling techniques for three periods (2021–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099). Streamflows are simulated by using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for the outputs of five global circulation models (GCMs) and their ensembles under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Spatial and temporal changes in defined future flow indexes, such as base streamflow, average flow, and high streamflow have been investigated in this study. Results depicted an overall increase in average annual flows under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 up until 2099. The maximum values of low flow, median flow, and high flows under RCP 4.5 were found to be 55.96 m3/s, 856.94 m3/s, and 7506.2 m3/s and under RCP 8.5, 63.29 m3/s, 945.26 m3/s, 7569.8 m3/s, respectively, for these ensembles GCMs till 2099. Under RCP 4.5, the maximum increases in maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), precipitation (Pr), and average annual streamflow were estimated as 5.3 °C, 2.0 °C, 128.4%, and 155.52%, respectively, up until 2099. In the case of RCP 8.5, the maximum increase in these hydro-metrological variables was up to 8.9 °C, 8.2 °C, 180.3%, and 181.56%, respectively, up until 2099. The increases in Tmax, Tmin, and Pr using ensemble GCMs under RCP 4.5 were found to be 1.95 °C, 1.68 °C and 93.28% (2021–2039), 1.84 °C, 1.34 °C, and 75.88%(2040–2069), 1.57 °C, 1.27 °C and 72.7% (2070–2099), respectively. Under RCP 8.5, the projected increases in Tmax, Tmin, and Pr using ensemble GCMs were found as 2.26 °C, 2.23 °C and 78.65% (2021–2039), 2.73 °C, 2.53 °C, and 83.79% (2040–2069), 2.80 °C, 2.63 °C and 67.89% (2070–2099), respectively. Three seasons (spring, winter, and autumn) showed a remarkable increase in streamflow, while the summer season showed a decrease in inflows. Based on modeling results, it is expected that the Mangla Watershed will experience more frequent extreme flow events in the future, due to climate change. These results indicate that the study of climate change’s impact on the water resources under a suitable downscaling technique is imperative for proper planning and management of the water resources.

ACS Style

Haroon Haider; Muhammad Zaman; Shiyin Liu; Muhammad Saifullah; Muhammad Usman; Junaid Chauhdary; Muhammad Anjum; Muhammad Waseem. Appraisal of Climate Change and its Impact on Water Resources of Pakistan: A Case Study of Mangla Watershed. Atmosphere 2020, 11, 1071 .

AMA Style

Haroon Haider, Muhammad Zaman, Shiyin Liu, Muhammad Saifullah, Muhammad Usman, Junaid Chauhdary, Muhammad Anjum, Muhammad Waseem. Appraisal of Climate Change and its Impact on Water Resources of Pakistan: A Case Study of Mangla Watershed. Atmosphere. 2020; 11 (10):1071.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Haroon Haider; Muhammad Zaman; Shiyin Liu; Muhammad Saifullah; Muhammad Usman; Junaid Chauhdary; Muhammad Anjum; Muhammad Waseem. 2020. "Appraisal of Climate Change and its Impact on Water Resources of Pakistan: A Case Study of Mangla Watershed." Atmosphere 11, no. 10: 1071.

Preprint content
Published: 23 March 2020
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Textile products made with cotton produced in Pakistan, Turkey, and Uzbekistan are largely imported to European markets. This is responsible for high virtual water imports from these countries and thus puts immense pressure on their water resources, which is further extravagated due to climate change and population growth. The solution to combat the issue, on one hand, is to cut water usage for cotton irrigation, and on the other hand, to increase water productivity. The biggest challenge in this regard is the correct quantification of consumptive water use, cotton yield estimation and crop water productivities at a finer spatial resolution on regional levels, which is now possible by utilizing remote sensing (RS) data and approaches. It can also facilitate comparing regions of interest, like in this study, Pakistan, Turkey, and Uzbekistan by utilizing similar data and techniques. For the current study, MODIS data along with various climatic variables were utilized for the estimation of consumptive water use and cotton yield estimation by employing SEBAL and Light Use Efficiency (LUE) models, respectively. These estimations were then used for working out water productivities of different regions of selected countries as case studies. The results show that the study area in Turkey achieved maximum cotton water productivity (i.e. 0.75 - 1.2 kg.m-3) followed by those in Uzbekistan (0.05 – 0.85 kg.m-3) and Pakistan (0.04 – 0.23 kg.m-3).  The variability is higher for Uzbekistan possibly due to agricultural transition post-soviet-union era. In the case of Pakistan, the lower cotton water productivities are mainly attributed to lower crop yields (400 – 1200 kg.ha-1) in comparison to Turkey (3850 – 5800 kg.ha-1) and Uzbekistan (450 – 2500 kg.ha-1). Although the highest crop water productivity is achieved for the study region in Turkey, there is still potential for further improvement by introducing on-farm water management. In the case of the other two countries, especially for Pakistan, major improvements are possible through maximizing crop yields. The next steps include comparisons of the results in economic out-turns.

ACS Style

Muhammad Usman; Talha Mahmood; Christopher Conrad. Remote Sensing based comparative analysis of cotton irrigation and water productivity in Pakistan, Turkey and Uzbekistan. 2020, 1 .

AMA Style

Muhammad Usman, Talha Mahmood, Christopher Conrad. Remote Sensing based comparative analysis of cotton irrigation and water productivity in Pakistan, Turkey and Uzbekistan. . 2020; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Muhammad Usman; Talha Mahmood; Christopher Conrad. 2020. "Remote Sensing based comparative analysis of cotton irrigation and water productivity in Pakistan, Turkey and Uzbekistan." , no. : 1.

Journal article
Published: 30 November 2019 in Journal of Hydrology
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The shrinking groundwater resource is a major cause of ecosystem imbalance, which is further intensified by rapid changes in land use and land cover (LULC) and climate in the lower Chenab canal (LCC) of Pakistan. Present study aims to investigate groundwater dynamics using a novel approach by incorporating remote sensing data in combination with actual patterns of LULC, while statistical approach is employed for downscaling of climatic data under two emission scenarios including H3A2 and H3B2. A 3-D numerical groundwater flow model is used for evaluating current patterns of groundwater use and its dynamics. The results of water budget show a total horizontal groundwater inflow of 2844 Mm3 and an outflow of 2720.2 Mm3. The groundwater abstraction through pumping is about 17374.43 Mm3 as compared to groundwater recharge of 19933.20 Mm3, yields a surplus of 2682.87 Mm3, which raises groundwater levels in major parts of LCC. Change in rice cultivation has the highest impact on groundwater levels in upper regions of LCC, whereas higher negative changes are observed for lower parts under decreased fodder area in place of rice, cotton and sugarcane. For climate scenarios, a rise in groundwater level is observed for 2011 to 2025, whereas, its drop is expected for the periods 2026–2035 and 2036–2045 under H3A2 scenario. Due to no imminent threats to groundwater, there is an opportunity for groundwater development through water re-allocation. Groundwater status under H3B2 emission regime is rather complex during 2011–2025. Water management under such situation requires revisiting of cropping patterns and augmenting water supply through additional surface water resources. Considering the limitations of the current study, it is recommended to update model with river flow under changing climate, and to extend investigations for combined effects of LULC and climate change.

ACS Style

Muhammad Usman; Muhammad Uzair Qamar; Rike Becker; Muhammad Zaman; Christopher Conrad; Shoaib Salim. Numerical modelling and remote sensing based approaches for investigating groundwater dynamics under changing land-use and climate in the agricultural region of Pakistan. Journal of Hydrology 2019, 581, 124408 .

AMA Style

Muhammad Usman, Muhammad Uzair Qamar, Rike Becker, Muhammad Zaman, Christopher Conrad, Shoaib Salim. Numerical modelling and remote sensing based approaches for investigating groundwater dynamics under changing land-use and climate in the agricultural region of Pakistan. Journal of Hydrology. 2019; 581 ():124408.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Muhammad Usman; Muhammad Uzair Qamar; Rike Becker; Muhammad Zaman; Christopher Conrad; Shoaib Salim. 2019. "Numerical modelling and remote sensing based approaches for investigating groundwater dynamics under changing land-use and climate in the agricultural region of Pakistan." Journal of Hydrology 581, no. : 124408.

Journal article
Published: 31 October 2019 in Ecological Indicators
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The Water Scarcity Footprint (WSF) serves as a method to estimate the local impacts associated with water consumption in a certain region by considering the volume of water consumed and local water scarcity. Despite the broad application of the WSF on a country and river basin level, the need for further regionalization was recently emphasized by several authors. In this study, water scarcity factors are calculated on high spatio-temporal resolution for 17 irrigation subdivisions located in Punjab, Pakistan on a monthly level based on the WAVE + method using data provided by the hydrological model SWAT and hydraulic model Feflow. The calculated “water deprivation indices” (WDIs) are applied to quantify the WSF of cotton and wheat produced in the study area and compared to the WSFs obtained by using existing WDIs with lower spatial and temporal resolution. The calculated WDIs show a high variability in water scarcity throughout the year from 0.1 to 1.0 m3deprived/m3consumed. The production weighted average WSF of cotton calculated with the regionalized WDIs amounts to 2333 m3deprived per ton, whilst the cotton produced in the south of the study area has a twice as high WSF as the cotton from the northern irrigation subdivisions. The result calculated based on the high resolution WDIs is more than 60% higher than the WSF calculated with the WDIs on the basin level. The regionalized WSF of wheat amounts to 1821 m3deprived per ton, which aligns with the WSF calculated with the basin specific WDIs. The study underlines the need for water scarcity factors on high spatial (e.g. irrigation subdivision) and temporal (monthly) resolution to provide robust WSF results.

ACS Style

Natalia Mikosch; Rike Becker; Lennart Schelter; Markus Berger; Muhammad Usman; Matthias Finkbeiner. High resolution water scarcity analysis for cotton cultivation areas in Punjab, Pakistan. Ecological Indicators 2019, 109, 105852 .

AMA Style

Natalia Mikosch, Rike Becker, Lennart Schelter, Markus Berger, Muhammad Usman, Matthias Finkbeiner. High resolution water scarcity analysis for cotton cultivation areas in Punjab, Pakistan. Ecological Indicators. 2019; 109 ():105852.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Natalia Mikosch; Rike Becker; Lennart Schelter; Markus Berger; Muhammad Usman; Matthias Finkbeiner. 2019. "High resolution water scarcity analysis for cotton cultivation areas in Punjab, Pakistan." Ecological Indicators 109, no. : 105852.

Journal article
Published: 15 October 2019 in Water
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Projected climate changes for the 21st century may cause great uncertainties on the hydrology of a river basin. This study explored the impacts of climate change on the water balance and hydrological regime of the Jhelum River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Two downscaling methods (SDSM, Statistical Downscaling Model and LARS-WG, Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator), three Global Circulation Models (GCMs), and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for three future periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2090s) were used to assess the climate change impacts on flow regimes. The results exhibited that both downscaling methods suggested an increase in annual streamflow over the river basin. There is generally an increasing trend of winter and autumn discharge, whereas it is complicated for summer and spring to conclude if the trend is increasing or decreasing depending on the downscaling methods. Therefore, the uncertainty associated with the downscaling of climate simulation needs to consider, for the best estimate, the impact of climate change, with its uncertainty, on a particular basin. The study also resulted that water yield and evapotranspiration in the eastern part of the basin (sub-basins at high elevation) would be most affected by climate change. The outcomes of this study would be useful for providing guidance in water management and planning for the river basin under climate change.

ACS Style

Naeem Saddique; Muhammad Usman; Christian Bernhofer. Simulating the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regimes of a Sparsely Gauged Mountainous Basin, Northern Pakistan. Water 2019, 11, 2141 .

AMA Style

Naeem Saddique, Muhammad Usman, Christian Bernhofer. Simulating the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regimes of a Sparsely Gauged Mountainous Basin, Northern Pakistan. Water. 2019; 11 (10):2141.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Naeem Saddique; Muhammad Usman; Christian Bernhofer. 2019. "Simulating the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regimes of a Sparsely Gauged Mountainous Basin, Northern Pakistan." Water 11, no. 10: 2141.

Journal article
Published: 01 October 2019 in Journal of Hydrology
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ACS Style

Rike Becker; Akash Koppa; Stephan Schulz; Muhammad Usman; Tim Aus der Beek; Christoph Schüth. Spatially distributed model calibration of a highly managed hydrological system using remote sensing-derived ET data. Journal of Hydrology 2019, 577, 1 .

AMA Style

Rike Becker, Akash Koppa, Stephan Schulz, Muhammad Usman, Tim Aus der Beek, Christoph Schüth. Spatially distributed model calibration of a highly managed hydrological system using remote sensing-derived ET data. Journal of Hydrology. 2019; 577 ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Rike Becker; Akash Koppa; Stephan Schulz; Muhammad Usman; Tim Aus der Beek; Christoph Schüth. 2019. "Spatially distributed model calibration of a highly managed hydrological system using remote sensing-derived ET data." Journal of Hydrology 577, no. : 1.

Original article
Published: 08 March 2019 in Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
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In this study, statistical downscaling models were used to project possible future patterns of precipitation and temperature in the Jhelum River basin shared by Pakistan and India. In-situ meteorological data were used to downscale precipitation and temperature using different General Circulation Models (i.e., CanESM2, BCC-CSM1–1, and MICROC5) relative to baseline (1961–1990) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The downscaling models used were the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM), which uses multiple linear regression and weather generator methods, and the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG), which uses weather generators. The results showed that the SDSM performance was slightly better than that of LARS-WG during validation and that the representation of the simulated mean monthly precipitation was more correct than that of monthly precipitation. The results also revealed that BCC-CSM1–1 performed better than CanESM2 and MICROC5 in the study region. The future annual mean temperature and precipitation are expected to rise under both RCP scenarios. The changes in the annual mean temperature and precipitation with LARS-WG were relatively higher than those with SDSM. Out of four seasons, winter and autumn are expected to be more diverse with regard to precipitation changes. However, although both models yielded non-identical results, it is certain that the basin will face a hotter climate in the future.

ACS Style

Naeem Saddique; Christian Bernhofer; Rico Kronenberg; Muhammad Usman. Downscaling of CMIP5 Models Output by Using Statistical Models in a Data Scarce Mountain Environment (Mangla Dam Watershed), Northern Pakistan. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 2019, 55, 719 -735.

AMA Style

Naeem Saddique, Christian Bernhofer, Rico Kronenberg, Muhammad Usman. Downscaling of CMIP5 Models Output by Using Statistical Models in a Data Scarce Mountain Environment (Mangla Dam Watershed), Northern Pakistan. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences. 2019; 55 (4):719-735.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Naeem Saddique; Christian Bernhofer; Rico Kronenberg; Muhammad Usman. 2019. "Downscaling of CMIP5 Models Output by Using Statistical Models in a Data Scarce Mountain Environment (Mangla Dam Watershed), Northern Pakistan." Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 55, no. 4: 719-735.

Chapter
Published: 05 December 2018 in Sustainable Agriculture Reviews
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Irrigation water for agriculture in Pakistan is an issue due to a significant difference between rainfall and crop water needs. Irrigation water is either coming from snowmelt and rainfall in the northern mountains, or being pumped from groundwater. Canal water is limited, and water distribution using the warabandi system, a fixed canal water rotation system among water users on a particular irrigation channel, is not adequate and flexible. The result is overdependence on groundwater, which has impaired crop growth, notably in regions of bad groundwater quality. The history of groundwater use is not very old in Punjab, Pakistan. By the end of 1990s, canal irrigation was dominant, which was then surpassed by groundwater at the start of 1991s. Since then the groundwater development has expanded exponentially, and recently the groundwater share in irrigated agriculture of the country is about 50%. By the end of 2013, more than one million tubewells are operational in the country and most of them are located in the Punjab province. The consequence is a drop of groundwater level in majority canal commands including the lower Chenab canal irrigation system. Evapotranspiration is the major outflow from the water balance in the region. Cultivation of high delta crops during kharif seasons including rice, cotton and sugarcane are responsible, which is triggered by elevated temperatures. During rabi seasons, wheat is the single major crop all over the lower Chenab canal with its coverage on more than 50% area. The overall recharge results showed that rainfall is the major inflow during kharif seasons, while during rabi canal seepage dominates all other recharge sources. During kharif, the other major sources of recharge are field percolations, canal seepage, watercourse losses and distributary losses. Rainfall recharge, field percolation, watercourse losses and distributary losses are considered major recharge sources during rabi seasons.

ACS Style

Muhammad Usman; Rudolf Liedl; Fan Zhang; Muhammad Zaman. Groundwater Irrigated Agriculture Evolution in Central Punjab, Pakistan. Sustainable Agriculture Reviews 2018, 259 -294.

AMA Style

Muhammad Usman, Rudolf Liedl, Fan Zhang, Muhammad Zaman. Groundwater Irrigated Agriculture Evolution in Central Punjab, Pakistan. Sustainable Agriculture Reviews. 2018; ():259-294.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Muhammad Usman; Rudolf Liedl; Fan Zhang; Muhammad Zaman. 2018. "Groundwater Irrigated Agriculture Evolution in Central Punjab, Pakistan." Sustainable Agriculture Reviews , no. : 259-294.

Journal article
Published: 21 September 2018 in Water
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The present study developed a novel approach to study the climate change impact on the water resources and generation of hydropower optimally using forecasted stream flows for the Xin’anjiang water shed in China. Future flows were projected using six large-scale Global circulation models (GCMs) with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. A newly developed mathematical modeling using particle swarm optimization was incorporated to work out the projected optimal electricity generation from the Xin’anjiang hydropower station. The results reveal that watershed will be warmer by the end of the 21st century with a maximum increase of up to 4.9 °C for mean maximum, and 4.8 °C for mean minimum temperature. Six GCMs under Representative Concentration pathways (RCPs) showed that future precipitation is complex to predict with certainty and significant differences were observed among the different GCMs. The overall mean monthly and seasonal precipitation increase for most scenarios with the maximum increase during the 2020s and 2080s, whereas 2050s exhibited the lesser increase. Resultantly, there would be an increase in the stream flows during these periods, which was used for electricity production up to 31.41 × 108 kW·h.

ACS Style

Muhammad Zaman; Muhammad Naveed Anjum; Muhammad Usman; Ijaz Ahmad; Muhammad Saifullah; Shouqi Yuan; Shiyin Liu. Enumerating the Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources Using GCM Scenarios at the Xin’anjiang Watershed, China. Water 2018, 10, 1296 .

AMA Style

Muhammad Zaman, Muhammad Naveed Anjum, Muhammad Usman, Ijaz Ahmad, Muhammad Saifullah, Shouqi Yuan, Shiyin Liu. Enumerating the Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources Using GCM Scenarios at the Xin’anjiang Watershed, China. Water. 2018; 10 (10):1296.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Muhammad Zaman; Muhammad Naveed Anjum; Muhammad Usman; Ijaz Ahmad; Muhammad Saifullah; Shouqi Yuan; Shiyin Liu. 2018. "Enumerating the Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources Using GCM Scenarios at the Xin’anjiang Watershed, China." Water 10, no. 10: 1296.

Research article
Published: 20 September 2018 in Environmental Science and Pollution Research
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Various measures are adopted by flood-prone households for the mitigation of flood risk along with various post-flood coping strategies. We analyze the role of various ex ante household-level flood mitigation strategies in influencing riverine flood damages. The study also presents an account on the linkages of various ex post coping strategies and flood damages experienced in a flood event in Pakistan. For achieving a uniform flood damage indicator, polychoric principle component analysis (PCA) is employed to construct a composite flood damage index considering various aspects of economic, social, and psychological impacts of a flood event. The adjusted flood damage index is regressed on various socioeconomic features and ex ante mitigation actions to know their effect on the former. Results indicate that distance from river, elevating house, and pre-shifting investigating about flooding problem help in significantly reducing the overall flood damages. Likewise, group-based actions like voting political candidates based on their flood-control promises, organizing grass-root group meetings, and raising voices through memos/petitions are found to significantly reduce flood-related damages while leaving house premises before flooding is found to increase the overall flood damage. Post-flood coping strategies comprise of social and financial support along with some livelihood diversification and disinvestment strategies such as selling livestock, jewelry, and withdrawing children from schools. Borrowing money, reducing food consumption, and agricultural diversification are more prevalent strategies among low and medium damage groups while consuming savings is more conspicuous among high damage group. The study concludes with the emphasis on policy interventions for effective early warning, location-specific flood intensity information, and proper streamlining of planning process and compensation system.

ACS Style

Azhar Abbas; T. S. Amjath-Babu; Harald Kächele; Muhammad Usman; M. Amjed Iqbal; Muhammad Arshad; M. Adnan Shahid; Klaus Müller. Sustainable survival under climatic extremes: linking flood risk mitigation and coping with flood damages in rural Pakistan. Environmental Science and Pollution Research 2018, 25, 32491 -32505.

AMA Style

Azhar Abbas, T. S. Amjath-Babu, Harald Kächele, Muhammad Usman, M. Amjed Iqbal, Muhammad Arshad, M. Adnan Shahid, Klaus Müller. Sustainable survival under climatic extremes: linking flood risk mitigation and coping with flood damages in rural Pakistan. Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 2018; 25 (32):32491-32505.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Azhar Abbas; T. S. Amjath-Babu; Harald Kächele; Muhammad Usman; M. Amjed Iqbal; Muhammad Arshad; M. Adnan Shahid; Klaus Müller. 2018. "Sustainable survival under climatic extremes: linking flood risk mitigation and coping with flood damages in rural Pakistan." Environmental Science and Pollution Research 25, no. 32: 32491-32505.

Journal article
Published: 25 April 2018 in Water SA
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In recent years, extensive competition for groundwater use among different consumers has exploited major freshwater aquifers in Pakistan. There is an urgent need for appraisal of this precious resource followed by some mitigation strategies. This modelling study was conducted in the mixed cropping zone of the Punjab, Pakistan. Both remote sensing and secondary data were utilized to achieve objectives of this study. The data related to piezometric water levels, canal gauges, well logs, meteorological and lithological information were collected from Punjab Irrigation Department (PID), Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA). Groundwater flow models for both steady and transient conditions were set-up using FEFLOW-3D. Water balance components and recharge were estimated using empirical relations and inverse modelling approaches. Both manual and automated approaches were utilized to calibrate the models. Moreover, sensitivity analysis was performed to see the response of model output against different model input parameters. Followed by calibration and validation, the model was run for different management scenarios, including lining of canal sections, minimization of field percolation, and change of groundwater abstraction. The study results show a drop in groundwater levels for almost all scenarios. The highest negative change was observed for the 4th scenario (i.e. 25% increase in groundwater pumping over a 10-year period), with a value of 3.73 m, by ignoring very wet summer and winter seasons. For normal weather conditions, the highest negative change was observed for the 4th scenario with a value of 2.91 m followed by 2.68 m for the 3rd scenario (i.e. 50% reduction in canal seepage and field percolation over a 10-year period). For very wet summer and winter seasons, only one positive change was observed, for the 5th scenario (i.e. 25% decrease in groundwater pumping during 10 years period), with a value of 1.17 m. The changes for all other scenarios were negative. The mitigation strategy may include less groundwater pumping, by supporting cultivation of low delta crops and adjusting cropping patterns considering canal water supplies. It is further suggested to support current modelling results by incorporating more detailed information on cropping and by exploring the effect of climate change.

ACS Style

Muhammad Usman; Rudolf Liedl; Muhammad Arshad; Christopher Conrad. 3-D numerical modelling of groundwater flow for scenario-based analysis and management. Water SA 2018, 44, 146-154 .

AMA Style

Muhammad Usman, Rudolf Liedl, Muhammad Arshad, Christopher Conrad. 3-D numerical modelling of groundwater flow for scenario-based analysis and management. Water SA. 2018; 44 (2):146-154.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Muhammad Usman; Rudolf Liedl; Muhammad Arshad; Christopher Conrad. 2018. "3-D numerical modelling of groundwater flow for scenario-based analysis and management." Water SA 44, no. 2: 146-154.

Journal article
Published: 19 April 2018 in Water
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The command area of the Rakh branch canal grows wheat, sugarcane, and rice crops in abundance. The canal water, which is trivial for irrigating these crops, is conveyed to the farms through the network of canals and distributaries. For the maintenance of this vast infrastructure; the end users are charged on a seasonal basis. The present water charges are severely criticized for not being adequate to properly manage the entire infrastructure. We use the residual value to determine the value of the irrigation water and then based on the quantity of irrigation water supplied to farm land coupled with the infrastructure maintenance cost, full cost recovery figures are executed for the study area, and policy recommendations are made for the implementation of the full cost recovery system. The approach is unique in the sense that the pricings are based on the actual quantity of water conveyed to the field for irrigating crops. The results of our analysis showed that the canal water is severely under charged in the culturable command area of selected distributaries, thus negating the plan of having a self-sustainable irrigation system.

ACS Style

Muhammad Uzair Qamar; Muhammad Azmat; Azhar Abbas; Muhammad Usman; Muhammad Adnan Shahid; Zahid Mahmood Khan. Water Pricing and Implementation Strategies for the Sustainability of an Irrigation System: A Case Study within the Command Area of the Rakh Branch Canal. Water 2018, 10, 509 .

AMA Style

Muhammad Uzair Qamar, Muhammad Azmat, Azhar Abbas, Muhammad Usman, Muhammad Adnan Shahid, Zahid Mahmood Khan. Water Pricing and Implementation Strategies for the Sustainability of an Irrigation System: A Case Study within the Command Area of the Rakh Branch Canal. Water. 2018; 10 (4):509.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Muhammad Uzair Qamar; Muhammad Azmat; Azhar Abbas; Muhammad Usman; Muhammad Adnan Shahid; Zahid Mahmood Khan. 2018. "Water Pricing and Implementation Strategies for the Sustainability of an Irrigation System: A Case Study within the Command Area of the Rakh Branch Canal." Water 10, no. 4: 509.

Journal article
Published: 12 January 2018 in ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information
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The use of inverse methods allow efficient model calibration. This study employs PEST to calibrate a large catchment scale transient flow model. Results are demonstrated by comparing manually calibrated approaches with the automated approach. An advanced Tikhonov regularization algorithm was employed for carrying out the automated pilot point (PP) method. The results indicate that automated PP is more flexible and robust as compared to other approaches. Different statistical indicators show that this method yields reliable calibration as values of coefficient of determination (R2) range from 0.98 to 0.99, Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (ME) range from 0.964 to 0.976, and root mean square errors (RMSE) range from 1.68 m to 1.23 m, for manual and automated approaches, respectively. Validation results of automated PP show ME as 0.969 and RMSE as 1.31 m. The results of output sensitivity suggest that hydraulic conductivity is a more influential parameter. Considering the limitations of the current study, it is recommended to perform global sensitivity and linear uncertainty analysis for the better estimation of the modelling results.

ACS Style

Muhammad Usman; Thomas Reimann; Rudolf Liedl; Azhar Abbas; Christopher Conrad; Shoaib Saleem. Inverse Parametrization of a Regional Groundwater Flow Model with the Aid of Modelling and GIS: Test and Application of Different Approaches. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 2018, 7, 22 .

AMA Style

Muhammad Usman, Thomas Reimann, Rudolf Liedl, Azhar Abbas, Christopher Conrad, Shoaib Saleem. Inverse Parametrization of a Regional Groundwater Flow Model with the Aid of Modelling and GIS: Test and Application of Different Approaches. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information. 2018; 7 (1):22.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Muhammad Usman; Thomas Reimann; Rudolf Liedl; Azhar Abbas; Christopher Conrad; Shoaib Saleem. 2018. "Inverse Parametrization of a Regional Groundwater Flow Model with the Aid of Modelling and GIS: Test and Application of Different Approaches." ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 7, no. 1: 22.

Journal article
Published: 16 July 2016 in Water Resources Management
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Investigating the hydrological response of an area to adverse climate changes and extreme rainfall events is crucial for managing land and water resources and mitigating the natural hazards like floods. Limited availability of the in situ data, especially in case of Transboundary Rivers, further highlights the need to develop and evaluate decision support systems which may predict the flows in real time using open source rainfall data. This paper presents the study conducted in Chenab River catchment, Pakistan, to develop and evaluate a hydrologic model using HEC-HMS for predicting flows based on TRMM rainfall data. The catchment was analyzed for hydro-morphological properties using SRTM DEM in HEC-GeoHMS. To rely on open source data as much as possible, digital soil map of the world developed by FAO and global land cover map developed by European Space Agency were utilized to compute Curve Number grid data for the catchment. These preliminary data analyses were employed to set initial values of different parameters to be used for model calibration. The model was calibrated for five rainfall events occurred in the rainy seasons of 2006, 2010 and 2013. The calibrated model was then validated for four other rainfall events of similar type in the same years. Consistency in simulated and observed flows was found with percent difference in volume ranging from −6.17 % to 5.47 % and percent difference in peak flows to be in the range of 6.96 % to 7.28 %. Values of Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency were ranging from 0.299 to 0.909 with an average value of 0.586 for all flow events. The model was found well capable of capturing the hydrologic response of the catchment due to rainfall events and can be helpful in providing alerts of peak flows in real time based on real time/forecasted rainfall data.

ACS Style

Muhammad Adnan Shahid; Piero Boccardo; Muhammad Usman; Adriana Albanese; Muhammad Uzair Qamar. Predicting Peak Flows in Real Time through Event Based Hydrologic Modeling for a Trans-Boundary River Catchment. Water Resources Management 2016, 31, 793 -810.

AMA Style

Muhammad Adnan Shahid, Piero Boccardo, Muhammad Usman, Adriana Albanese, Muhammad Uzair Qamar. Predicting Peak Flows in Real Time through Event Based Hydrologic Modeling for a Trans-Boundary River Catchment. Water Resources Management. 2016; 31 (3):793-810.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Muhammad Adnan Shahid; Piero Boccardo; Muhammad Usman; Adriana Albanese; Muhammad Uzair Qamar. 2016. "Predicting Peak Flows in Real Time through Event Based Hydrologic Modeling for a Trans-Boundary River Catchment." Water Resources Management 31, no. 3: 793-810.

Journal article
Published: 01 April 2016 in Pakistan Journal of Agricultural Sciences
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ACS Style

Muhammad Usman; Azhar Abbas; Zulfiqar Ahmad Saqib. CONJUNCTIVE USE OF WATER AND ITS MANAGEMENT FOR ENHANCED PRODUCTIVITY OF MAJOR CROPS ACROSS TERTIARY CANAL IRRIGATION SYSTEM OF INDUS BASIN IN PAKISTAN. Pakistan Journal of Agricultural Sciences 2016, 53, 257 -264.

AMA Style

Muhammad Usman, Azhar Abbas, Zulfiqar Ahmad Saqib. CONJUNCTIVE USE OF WATER AND ITS MANAGEMENT FOR ENHANCED PRODUCTIVITY OF MAJOR CROPS ACROSS TERTIARY CANAL IRRIGATION SYSTEM OF INDUS BASIN IN PAKISTAN. Pakistan Journal of Agricultural Sciences. 2016; 53 (1):257-264.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Muhammad Usman; Azhar Abbas; Zulfiqar Ahmad Saqib. 2016. "CONJUNCTIVE USE OF WATER AND ITS MANAGEMENT FOR ENHANCED PRODUCTIVITY OF MAJOR CROPS ACROSS TERTIARY CANAL IRRIGATION SYSTEM OF INDUS BASIN IN PAKISTAN." Pakistan Journal of Agricultural Sciences 53, no. 1: 257-264.

Original articles
Published: 24 November 2015 in International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology
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South Asia faces increasing flooding risks due to climatic and socio-economic changes. Various measures have been adopted by the governments of the countries in this region. However, these measures are not adequate to protect the vulnerable communities from ever-increasing flood losses. This study assesses the policy and planning processes and flood-related scientific research in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Based on a systematic review, a comparison of the existing flood management systems of the three countries is undertaken, and a framework for sustainable flood management in the region is suggested. Insights from the literature show that Bangladesh has been able to develop an effective governance structure to address flood hazards, while Pakistan’s approach to flood management planning is found to be largely inadequate. This inadequacy is mainly attributed to missing links in policy formulation and planning processes, along with a lack of institutional coordination. The results of the literature analysis reveal poor support from scientific research focusing on flooding issues in the case of Pakistan, while Bangladesh and India seem to have benefited from research support in formulating their flood management strategies. Based on these findings, an alternative framework is suggested, emphasizing the need to enhance institutional linkages, community participation and evidence-based research.

ACS Style

Azhar Abbas; T.S. Amjath-Babu; Harald Kächele; Muhammad Usman; Klaus Müller; Klaus Mueller. An overview of flood mitigation strategy and research support in South Asia: implications for sustainable flood risk management. International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology 2015, 23, 98 -111.

AMA Style

Azhar Abbas, T.S. Amjath-Babu, Harald Kächele, Muhammad Usman, Klaus Müller, Klaus Mueller. An overview of flood mitigation strategy and research support in South Asia: implications for sustainable flood risk management. International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology. 2015; 23 (1):98-111.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Azhar Abbas; T.S. Amjath-Babu; Harald Kächele; Muhammad Usman; Klaus Müller; Klaus Mueller. 2015. "An overview of flood mitigation strategy and research support in South Asia: implications for sustainable flood risk management." International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ecology 23, no. 1: 98-111.

Journal article
Published: 06 November 2015 in Journal of Geographical Sciences
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Detailed analysis of Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) using remote sensing data in complex irrigated basins provides complete profile for better water resource management and planning. Using remote sensing data, this study provides detailed land use maps of the Lower Chenab Canal irrigated region of Pakistan from 2005 to 2012 for LULC change detection. Major crop types are demarcated by identifying temporal profiles of NDVI using MODIS 250 m × 250 m spatial resolution data. Wheat and rice are found to be major crops in rabi and kharif seasons, respectively. Accuracy assessment of prepared maps is performed using three different techniques: error matrix approach, comparison with ancillary data and with previous study. Producer and user accuracies for each class are calculated along with kappa coefficients (K). The average overall accuracies for rabi and kharif are 82.83% and 78.21%, respectively. Producer and user accuracies for individual class range respectively between 72.5% to 77% and 70.1% to 84.3% for rabi and 76.6% to 90.2% and 72% to 84.7% for kharif. The K values range between 0.66 to 0.77 for rabi with average of 0.73, and from 0.69 to 0.74 with average of 0.71 for kharif. LULC change detection indicates that wheat and rice have less volatility of change in comparison with both rabi and kharif fodders. Transformation between cotton and rice is less common due to their completely different cropping conditions. Results of spatial and temporal LULC distributions and their seasonal variations provide useful insights for establishing realistic LULC scenarios for hydrological studies.

ACS Style

M. Usman; Rudolf Liedl; Muhammad Adnan Shahid; Azhar Abbas. Land use/land cover classification and its change detection using multi-temporal MODIS NDVI data. Journal of Geographical Sciences 2015, 25, 1479 -1506.

AMA Style

M. Usman, Rudolf Liedl, Muhammad Adnan Shahid, Azhar Abbas. Land use/land cover classification and its change detection using multi-temporal MODIS NDVI data. Journal of Geographical Sciences. 2015; 25 (12):1479-1506.

Chicago/Turabian Style

M. Usman; Rudolf Liedl; Muhammad Adnan Shahid; Azhar Abbas. 2015. "Land use/land cover classification and its change detection using multi-temporal MODIS NDVI data." Journal of Geographical Sciences 25, no. 12: 1479-1506.