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Previous studies have focused on changes in the geographical distribution of terrestrial biomes and species targeted by marine capture fisheries due to climate change impacts. Given mariculture's substantial contribution to global seafood production and its growing significance in recent decades, it is essential to evaluate the effects of climate change on mariculture and their socio‐economic consequences. Here, we projected climate change impacts on the marine aquaculture diversity for 85 of the currently most commonly farmed fish and invertebrate species in the world's coastal and/or open ocean areas. Results of ensemble projections from three Earth system models and three species distribution models show that climate change may lead to a substantial redistribution of mariculture species richness potential, with an average of 10%–40% decline in the number of species being potentially suitable to be farmed in tropical to subtropical regions. In contrast, mariculture species richness potential is projected to increase by about 40% at higher latitudes under the ‘no mitigation policy’ scenario (RCP 8.5) by the mid‐21st century. In Exclusive Economic Zones where mariculture is currently undertaken, we projected an average future decline of 1.3% and 5% in mariculture species richness potential under RCP 2.6 (‘strong mitigation’) and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively, by the 2050s relative to the 2000s. Our findings highlight the opportunities and challenges for climate adaptation in the mariculture sector through the redistribution of farmed species and expansion of mariculture locations. Our results can help inform adaptation planning and governance mechanisms to minimize local environmental impacts and potential conflicts with other marine and coastal sectors in the future.
Muhammed A. Oyinlola; Gabriel Reygondeau; Colette C. C. Wabnitz; William W. L. Cheung. Projecting global mariculture diversity under climate change. Global Change Biology 2020, 26, 2134 -2148.
AMA StyleMuhammed A. Oyinlola, Gabriel Reygondeau, Colette C. C. Wabnitz, William W. L. Cheung. Projecting global mariculture diversity under climate change. Global Change Biology. 2020; 26 (4):2134-2148.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMuhammed A. Oyinlola; Gabriel Reygondeau; Colette C. C. Wabnitz; William W. L. Cheung. 2020. "Projecting global mariculture diversity under climate change." Global Change Biology 26, no. 4: 2134-2148.
Flatfishes (order Pleuonectiformes) are important to fisheries and contribute substantially to seafood production and people's livelihood. However, the sustainability of flatfish fisheries is being challenged by climate change, in addition to other non-climatic human stressors. There is an urgent need to expand our understanding of the vulnerability and risk of impacts of flatfishes and their fisheries to climate change, and identify possible options to moderate such impacts. In this paper, firstly, we explain the importance of ocean temperature and thermal characteristics of flatfishes in determining their biogeography. Secondly, we discuss the biological vulnerability of flatfishes in the world to climate change as indicated by quantitative indices estimated from a fuzzy logic algorithm. Thirdly, by presenting projections of future distribution and potential catches of exploited flatfishes from computer simulation models, we highlight specific regions and species that are expected to be most impacted by climate change. Finally, we discuss potential human interventions that could help reduce such impacts, including the potential for mariculture. This paper underscores the need for immediate actions to integrate climate change into flatfish conservation and fisheries management measures.
William W.L. Cheung; Muhammed Alolade Oyinlola. Vulnerability of flatfish and their fisheries to climate change. Journal of Sea Research 2018, 140, 1 -10.
AMA StyleWilliam W.L. Cheung, Muhammed Alolade Oyinlola. Vulnerability of flatfish and their fisheries to climate change. Journal of Sea Research. 2018; 140 ():1-10.
Chicago/Turabian StyleWilliam W.L. Cheung; Muhammed Alolade Oyinlola. 2018. "Vulnerability of flatfish and their fisheries to climate change." Journal of Sea Research 140, no. : 1-10.
Aquaculture has grown rapidly over the last three decades expanding at an average annual growth rate of 5.8% (2005–2014), down from 8.8% achieved between 1980 and 2010. The sector now produces 44% of total food fish production. Increasing demand and consumption from a growing global population are driving further expansion of both inland and marine aquaculture (i.e., mariculture, including marine species farmed on land). However, the growth of mariculture is dependent on the availability of suitable farming areas for new facilities, particularly for open farming practices that rely on the natural oceanic environmental parameters such as temperature, oxygen, chlorophyll etc. In this study, we estimated the marine areas within the exclusive economic zones of all countries that were suitable for potential open ocean mariculture activities. To this end, we quantify the environmental niche and inferred the global habitat suitability index (HSI) of the 102 most farmed marine species using four species distribution models. The average weighted HSI across the four models suggests that 72,000,000 km2 of ocean are to be environmentally suitable to farm one or more species. About 92% of the predicted area (66,000,000 km2) is environmentally suitable for farming finfish, 43% (31,000,000 km2) for molluscs and 54% (39,000,000 km2) for crustaceans. These predictions do not consider technological feasibility that can limit crustaceans farming in open waters. Suitable mariculture areas along the Atlantic coast of South America and West Africa appear to be most under-utilized for farming. Our results suggest that factors other than environmental considerations such as the lack of socio-economic and technological capacity, as well as aqua feed supply are currently limiting the potential for mariculture expansion in many areas.
Muhammed A. Oyinlola; Gabriel Reygondeau; Colette C. C. Wabnitz; Max Troell; William W. L. Cheung. Global estimation of areas with suitable environmental conditions for mariculture species. PLOS ONE 2018, 13, e0191086 .
AMA StyleMuhammed A. Oyinlola, Gabriel Reygondeau, Colette C. C. Wabnitz, Max Troell, William W. L. Cheung. Global estimation of areas with suitable environmental conditions for mariculture species. PLOS ONE. 2018; 13 (1):e0191086.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMuhammed A. Oyinlola; Gabriel Reygondeau; Colette C. C. Wabnitz; Max Troell; William W. L. Cheung. 2018. "Global estimation of areas with suitable environmental conditions for mariculture species." PLOS ONE 13, no. 1: e0191086.