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In recent years, a wide range of techniques has been developed to predict electoral results and to measure the influence of different factors in these results. In this paper, we analyze the influence of the political profile of candidates (characterized by personal and political features) and their campaign effort (characterized by electoral expenditure and by territorial deployment strategies retrieved from social networks activity) on the electoral results. This analysis is carried out by using three of the most frequent data analyitcs algorithms in the literature. For our analysis, we consider the 2017 Parliamentary elections in Chile, which are the first elections after a major reform of the electoral system, that encompassed a transition from a binomial to a proportional system, a modification of the districts’ structure, an increase in the number of seats, and the requirement of gender parity in the lists of the different coalitions. The obtained results reveal that, regardless of the political coalition, the electoral experience of candidates, in particular in the same seat they are running for (even when the corresponding district is modified), is by large the most influential factor to explain the electoral results. However, the attained results show that the influence of other features, such as campaign expenditures, depends on the political coalition. Additionally, by means of a simulation procedure, we show how different levels of territorial deployment efforts might impact on the results of candidates. This procedure could be used by parties and coalitions when planning their campaign strategies.
Camilo Campos-Valdés; Eduardo Álvarez-Miranda; Mauricio Morales Quiroga; Jordi Pereira; Félix Liberona Durán. The Impact of Candidates’ Profile and Campaign Decisions in Electoral Results: A Data Analytics Approach. Mathematics 2021, 9, 902 .
AMA StyleCamilo Campos-Valdés, Eduardo Álvarez-Miranda, Mauricio Morales Quiroga, Jordi Pereira, Félix Liberona Durán. The Impact of Candidates’ Profile and Campaign Decisions in Electoral Results: A Data Analytics Approach. Mathematics. 2021; 9 (8):902.
Chicago/Turabian StyleCamilo Campos-Valdés; Eduardo Álvarez-Miranda; Mauricio Morales Quiroga; Jordi Pereira; Félix Liberona Durán. 2021. "The Impact of Candidates’ Profile and Campaign Decisions in Electoral Results: A Data Analytics Approach." Mathematics 9, no. 8: 902.
Abundant evidence exists of the low electoral turnout of indigenous people. Among the reasons that explain this result are the weakness of political parties in representing indigenous people, the economic circumstances of ethnic minorities, and their experiences of discrimination. In general, these findings are based on analyses of national elections, and it is unclear if they hold equally at the subnational level. This study of the Mapuche ethnic group in Chile analyzed the electoral turnout in Chile’s 345 municipalities for the national elections of 2013 and 2017 and the subnational elections of 2012 and 2016. The study found the following. First, the electoral turnout in municipalities with the highest concentration of Mapuche is above the average for subnational elections and comparable to the average for national elections. Second, the electoral turnout in these municipalities increases in those subnational elections in which candidates with Mapuche surnames compete. Third, the electoral turnout increases even more in those municipalities in which Mapuche mayoral candidates win in subnational elections.
Mauricio Morales. Is the Low Electoral Turnout of Indigenous People a Myth? Evidence from Subnational Elections in Chile, 2012-2017. Journal of Ethnic and Cultural Studies 2020, 8, 107 -128.
AMA StyleMauricio Morales. Is the Low Electoral Turnout of Indigenous People a Myth? Evidence from Subnational Elections in Chile, 2012-2017. Journal of Ethnic and Cultural Studies. 2020; 8 (1):107-128.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMauricio Morales. 2020. "Is the Low Electoral Turnout of Indigenous People a Myth? Evidence from Subnational Elections in Chile, 2012-2017." Journal of Ethnic and Cultural Studies 8, no. 1: 107-128.
Electoral systems are modified by individuals who have incentives to bias the rules for their political advantage (i.e., gerrymandering). To prevent gerrymandering, legislative institutions can rely on mathematical tools to guarantee democratic fairness and territorial contiguity. These tools have been successfully used in the past; however, there is a need to accommodate additional meanings of the term fairness within the electoral systems of modern democracies. In this paper, we present an optimization framework that considers multiple criteria for drawing districts and assigning the number of representatives. Besides some typical districting criteria (malapportionment and contiguity), we introduce novel criteria for ensuring territorial equilibrium and incentives for candidates to deploy their representation efforts fairly during their campaign and period in office. We test the method, which we denote as Multi-criteria Pen, in a recent and a forthcoming reform of the Chilean electoral system. The results show the potential of our tool to improve the current territorial design and offers insights on the motivations, objectives, and deficiencies of both reform plans.
Eduardo Álvarez-Miranda; Camilo Campos-Valdés; Maurcio Morales Quiroga; Matías Moreno-Faguett; Jordi Pereira. A Multi-Criteria Pen for Drawing Fair Districts: When Democratic and Demographic Fairness Matter. Mathematics 2020, 8, 1404 .
AMA StyleEduardo Álvarez-Miranda, Camilo Campos-Valdés, Maurcio Morales Quiroga, Matías Moreno-Faguett, Jordi Pereira. A Multi-Criteria Pen for Drawing Fair Districts: When Democratic and Demographic Fairness Matter. Mathematics. 2020; 8 (9):1404.
Chicago/Turabian StyleEduardo Álvarez-Miranda; Camilo Campos-Valdés; Maurcio Morales Quiroga; Matías Moreno-Faguett; Jordi Pereira. 2020. "A Multi-Criteria Pen for Drawing Fair Districts: When Democratic and Demographic Fairness Matter." Mathematics 8, no. 9: 1404.
La democracia chilena vive en una contradicción. Mientras los indicadores económicos y de estabilidad política destacan a nivel internacional, la participación electoral y la representación política experimentan un evidente déficit. Si bien el estallido social del 18 de octubre de 2019 tomó por sorpresa a la clase política, existían antecedentes para anticipar- aunque sin precisión exacta- una revuelta social de esta envergadura. En este artículo sugiero cuatro “crisis” que explican la convulsión social del país. Primero, una crisis de participación que se vio agudizada por la instauración del voto voluntario en 2012. Segundo, una crisis de representación reflejada en la menor adhesión a partidos y en la pérdida de confianza a instituciones claves de la de democracia (gobierno, tribunales, congreso). Tercero, una crisis de confianza en instituciones de orden público y de orden social (Carabineros e Iglesias). Cuarto, una crisis de probidad pública y privada reflejada en el incremento de casos de financiamiento irregular de las campañas políticas y colusiones empresariales.
Mauricio Morales Quiroga. Estallido social en Chile 2019: participación, representación, confianza institucional y escándalos públicos. Análisis Político 2020, 33, 3 -25.
AMA StyleMauricio Morales Quiroga. Estallido social en Chile 2019: participación, representación, confianza institucional y escándalos públicos. Análisis Político. 2020; 33 (98):3-25.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMauricio Morales Quiroga. 2020. "Estallido social en Chile 2019: participación, representación, confianza institucional y escándalos públicos." Análisis Político 33, no. 98: 3-25.
RESUMEN Introducción: Evaluamos el efecto de la edad de los candidatos sobre las variaciones de la participación electoral según tramo etáreo. Materiales y Métodos: Utilizamos como caso de estudio las e1180009 lecciones legislativas chilenas de 2013. Sobre la base de un modelo de regresión lineal multivariado, medimos el efecto de la edad de los candidatos sobre la participación electoral. Resultados: Concluimos que la presencia de candidatos jóvenes (de 30 años o menos) estimula la participación de electores de 18 a 29 años, siendo irrelevante en electores de 30 a 59 años, y deprimiendo la participación en electores de 60 años y más. Discusión: Sugerimos que dicho efecto no es homogéneo según los niveles de pobreza comunal. La presencia de candidatos jóvenes estimula la participación sólo en comunas con niveles de pobreza iguales o inferiores al promedio.
Mauricio Morales Quiroga; Claudio Lara Peyrin. El efecto de la edad de los candidatos sobre la participación electoral. El caso de Chile. Revista de Sociologia e Política 2019, 27, 1 .
AMA StyleMauricio Morales Quiroga, Claudio Lara Peyrin. El efecto de la edad de los candidatos sobre la participación electoral. El caso de Chile. Revista de Sociologia e Política. 2019; 27 (71):1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMauricio Morales Quiroga; Claudio Lara Peyrin. 2019. "El efecto de la edad de los candidatos sobre la participación electoral. El caso de Chile." Revista de Sociologia e Política 27, no. 71: 1.
Los sistemas de partidos institucionalizados pueden convivir con una alta incongruencia programática entre élite y ciudadanía. Por el contrario, sistemas de partidos menos institucionalizados podrían estar en la posición de generar una mayor congruencia programática. Analizamos esta aparente anomalía en el Cono Sur de América Latina, comparando Argentina, Chile y Uruguay. Metodológicamente, utilizamos tres medidas de congruencia: promedios, comparación de distribuciones ( many to many ), distancia entre los votantes y un representante típico ( many to one ). Sobre esta última medida diseñamos modelos de regresión múltiple para identificar las variables que predicen mayor congruencia. Concluimos que en sistemas estables las preferencias electorales se mantienen a pesar de la distancia entre élite y votantes en algunos ejes de competencia, siendo Uruguay el caso más representativo.
Mario Herrera; Mauricio Morales. Congruencia programática en el Cono Sur. Argentina, Chile y Uruguay en perspectiva comparada. Opinião Pública 2018, 24, 405 -426.
AMA StyleMario Herrera, Mauricio Morales. Congruencia programática en el Cono Sur. Argentina, Chile y Uruguay en perspectiva comparada. Opinião Pública. 2018; 24 (2):405-426.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMario Herrera; Mauricio Morales. 2018. "Congruencia programática en el Cono Sur. Argentina, Chile y Uruguay en perspectiva comparada." Opinião Pública 24, no. 2: 405-426.