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Mr. Arnór Elvarsson
Infrastructure Management Consultants

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0 Infrastructure
0 Mobility
0 Transport Economics
0 Infrastructure Asset Management System
0 Uncertainty and Risk Analysis

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Journal article
Published: 23 April 2021 in Sustainability
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The introduction of shared autonomous vehicles into the transport system is suggested to bring significant impacts on traffic conditions, road safety and emissions, as well as overall reshaping travel behaviour. Compared with a private autonomous vehicle, a shared automated vehicle (SAV) is associated with different willingness-to-adopt and willingness-to-pay characteristics. An important aspect of future SAV adoption is the presence of other passengers in the SAV—often people unknown to the cotravellers. This study presents a cross-country exploration of user preferences and WTP calculations regarding mode choice between a private non-autonomous vehicle, and private and shared autonomous vehicles. To explore user preferences, the study launched a survey in seven European countries, including a stated-preference experiment of user choices. To model and quantify the effect of travel mode attributes and socio-demographic characteristics, the study employs a mixed logit model. The model results were the basis for calculating willingness-to-pay values for all countries and travel modes, and provide insight into the significant heterogeneous, gender-wise effect of cotravellers in the choice to use an SAV. The study results highlight the importance of analysis of the effect of SAV attributes and shared-ride conditions on the future acceptance and adoption rates of such services.

ACS Style

Amalia Polydoropoulou; Ioannis Tsouros; Nikolas Thomopoulos; Cristina Pronello; Arnór Elvarsson; Haraldur Sigþórsson; Nima Dadashzadeh; Kristina Stojmenova; Jaka Sodnik; Stelios Neophytou; Domokos Esztergár-Kiss; Jamil Hamadneh; Graham Parkhurst; Shelly Etzioni; Yoram Shiftan; Floridea Di Ciommo. Who Is Willing to Share Their AV? Insights about Gender Differences among Seven Countries. Sustainability 2021, 13, 4769 .

AMA Style

Amalia Polydoropoulou, Ioannis Tsouros, Nikolas Thomopoulos, Cristina Pronello, Arnór Elvarsson, Haraldur Sigþórsson, Nima Dadashzadeh, Kristina Stojmenova, Jaka Sodnik, Stelios Neophytou, Domokos Esztergár-Kiss, Jamil Hamadneh, Graham Parkhurst, Shelly Etzioni, Yoram Shiftan, Floridea Di Ciommo. Who Is Willing to Share Their AV? Insights about Gender Differences among Seven Countries. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (9):4769.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Amalia Polydoropoulou; Ioannis Tsouros; Nikolas Thomopoulos; Cristina Pronello; Arnór Elvarsson; Haraldur Sigþórsson; Nima Dadashzadeh; Kristina Stojmenova; Jaka Sodnik; Stelios Neophytou; Domokos Esztergár-Kiss; Jamil Hamadneh; Graham Parkhurst; Shelly Etzioni; Yoram Shiftan; Floridea Di Ciommo. 2021. "Who Is Willing to Share Their AV? Insights about Gender Differences among Seven Countries." Sustainability 13, no. 9: 4769.

Journal article
Published: 23 November 2020 in Sustainability
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The technology that allows fully automated driving already exists and it may gradually enter the market over the forthcoming decades. Technology assimilation and automated vehicle acceptance in different countries is of high interest to many scholars, manufacturers, and policymakers worldwide. We model the mode choice between automated vehicles and conventional cars using a mixed multinomial logit heteroskedastic error component type model. Specifically, we capture preference heterogeneity assuming a continuous distribution across individuals. Different choice scenarios, based on respondents’ reported trip, were presented to respondents from six European countries: Cyprus, Hungary, Iceland, Montenegro, Slovenia, and the UK. We found that large reservations towards automated vehicles exist in all countries with 70% conventional private car choices, and 30% automated vehicles choices. We found that men, under the age of 60, with a high income who currently use private car, are more likely to be early adopters of automated vehicles. We found significant differences in automated vehicles acceptance in different countries. Individuals from Slovenia and Cyprus show higher automated vehicles acceptance while individuals from wealthier countries, UK, and Iceland, show more reservations towards them. Nontrading mode choice behaviors, value of travel time, and differences in model parameters among the different countries are discussed.

ACS Style

Shelly Etzioni; Jamil Hamadneh; Arnór Elvarsson; Domokos Esztergár-Kiss; Milena Djukanovic; Stelios Neophytou; Jaka Sodnik; Amalia Polydoropoulou; Ioannis Tsouros; Cristina Pronello; Nikolas Thomopoulos; Yoram Shiftan. Modeling Cross-National Differences in Automated Vehicle Acceptance. Sustainability 2020, 12, 9765 .

AMA Style

Shelly Etzioni, Jamil Hamadneh, Arnór Elvarsson, Domokos Esztergár-Kiss, Milena Djukanovic, Stelios Neophytou, Jaka Sodnik, Amalia Polydoropoulou, Ioannis Tsouros, Cristina Pronello, Nikolas Thomopoulos, Yoram Shiftan. Modeling Cross-National Differences in Automated Vehicle Acceptance. Sustainability. 2020; 12 (22):9765.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Shelly Etzioni; Jamil Hamadneh; Arnór Elvarsson; Domokos Esztergár-Kiss; Milena Djukanovic; Stelios Neophytou; Jaka Sodnik; Amalia Polydoropoulou; Ioannis Tsouros; Cristina Pronello; Nikolas Thomopoulos; Yoram Shiftan. 2020. "Modeling Cross-National Differences in Automated Vehicle Acceptance." Sustainability 12, no. 22: 9765.

Journal article
Published: 04 November 2020 in Sustainability
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Autonomous vehicles are anticipated to play an important role on future mobility offering encouraging solutions to today’s transport problems. However, concerns of the public, which can affect the AVs’ uptake, are yet to be addressed. This study presents relevant findings of an online survey in eight European countries. First, 1639 responses were collected in Spring 2020 on people’s commute, preferred transport mode, willingness to use AVs and demographic details. Data was analyzed for the entire dataset and for vulnerable road users in particular. Results re-confirm the long-lasting discourse on the importance of safety on the acceptance of AVs. Spearman correlations show that age, gender, education level and number of household members have an impact on how people may be using or allowing their children to use the technology, e.g., with or without the presence of a human supervisor in the vehicle. Results on vulnerable road users show the same trend. The elderly would travel in AVs with the presence of a human supervisor. People with disabilities have the same proclivity, however their reactions were more conservative. Next to safety, reliability, affordability, cost, driving pleasure and household size may also impact the uptake of AVs and shall be considered when designing relevant policies.

ACS Style

Miltos Kyriakidis; Jaka Sodnik; Kristina Stojmenova; Arnór Elvarsson; Cristina Pronello; Nikolas Thomopoulos. The Role of Human Operators in Safety Perception of AV Deployment—Insights from a Large European Survey. Sustainability 2020, 12, 9166 .

AMA Style

Miltos Kyriakidis, Jaka Sodnik, Kristina Stojmenova, Arnór Elvarsson, Cristina Pronello, Nikolas Thomopoulos. The Role of Human Operators in Safety Perception of AV Deployment—Insights from a Large European Survey. Sustainability. 2020; 12 (21):9166.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Miltos Kyriakidis; Jaka Sodnik; Kristina Stojmenova; Arnór Elvarsson; Cristina Pronello; Nikolas Thomopoulos. 2020. "The Role of Human Operators in Safety Perception of AV Deployment—Insights from a Large European Survey." Sustainability 12, no. 21: 9166.

Review article
Published: 13 August 2020 in Journal of Building Engineering
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Parking garages are often currently designed assuming that parking demand will be stable over their lifetime. The looming mobility shift towards automated vehicles (AVs), however, makes parking demand highly uncertain, with some scenarios leading to its complete disappearance at some time in the near future. The design of optimal parking garages needs to take this uncertainty into consideration and may lead to parking garages that can easily be transformed for other uses when beneficial. In situations of large future demand uncertainty, infrastructure owners are increasingly using the real options method to help evaluate the potential benefits of paying more for construction of flexibly designed infrastructure. The real options method, helps owners, to avoid under-, or overinvesting in infrastructure, through the minimisation of their risks. In this work, a methodology, which uses the real options method, is proposed to determine the optimal design of a parking garage located within a residential building. The methodology is used, together with estimates of the uncertainty in the future parking demand due to deployment of AVs, Monte Carlo simulations of the possible futures, stakeholder costs for operation and refurbishment costs for each of the different design alternatives and intervention strategies, to estimate the net benefits over the life-time of the parking garage. The methodology is used to evaluate designs and intervention strategies for the 14′000 m2 463-lot parking garage in a residential building in western Switzerland. The designs are a traditional design and a flexible design. The construction of a building according to the two design approaches would bear costs of 10 and 11 million CHF, respectively. The intervention strategies for the traditional building are a single stage intervention strategy and a no intervention strategy. The intervention strategies for the flexible building are a single-stage intervention strategy and a multi-stage intervention strategy. The traditionally designed building costs 2 million CHF to demolish and 29 million CHF to reconstruct as a residential building. The flexibly designed building costs 21 million to adapt for residential use. It is shown that the flexible design and a multi-stage intervention strategy (i.e. transforming the parking garage floor by floor on an as needed basis), provides the highest net benefits (2.2 million CHF). The flexible design and a single-stage intervention strategy provides the second highest net benefits (1.3 million CHF). A traditional design with a single-stage intervention strategy provides 0.5 million CHF in net benefit, and the traditional design with a no intervention strategy results in a net loss of 3.0 million CHF. A sensitivity analysis shows the robustness of the options. Since the use of the proposed methodology helps owners identify all the possible designs and intervention strategies as well as increases their ability to accurately estimate the net-benefit of their decisions, it is concluded that it is advantageous for owners to use the proposed methodology in determining the optimal design of parking garages. Its use will help ensure that they are optimally positioned to deal with the uncertain future.

ACS Style

Arnór B. Elvarsson; Claudio Martani; Bryan T. Adey. Considering automated vehicle deployment uncertainty in the design of optimal parking garages using real options. Journal of Building Engineering 2020, 34, 101703 .

AMA Style

Arnór B. Elvarsson, Claudio Martani, Bryan T. Adey. Considering automated vehicle deployment uncertainty in the design of optimal parking garages using real options. Journal of Building Engineering. 2020; 34 ():101703.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Arnór B. Elvarsson; Claudio Martani; Bryan T. Adey. 2020. "Considering automated vehicle deployment uncertainty in the design of optimal parking garages using real options." Journal of Building Engineering 34, no. : 101703.