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Makoto Tamura
Global and Local Environment Co-Creation Institute, Ibaraki University, Ibaraki 310-8512, Japan

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Journal article
Published: 11 December 2020 in Sustainability
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This study evaluated inundation impacts and the economic damage resulting from sea level rise (SLR) in the Vietnamese Mekong River Delta (VMRD), and identified the effectiveness of mixing gray and green infrastructures using cost-benefit analysis. The results showed that the VMRD could potentially be heavily affected by SLR. Without the implementation of proper adaptations, more than 90% of this area could be below sea level and nearly 20 million people could be affected by inundation by the end of the 21st century. The total economic damage could reach more than 22,000 billion US$ (2010 real value) by 2100 with no discount rate. These threats may increase the pressure on the region to ensure well-being, equity, and progress towards achieving sustainable development goals. However, achieving these goals will require the implementation of adaptations for upgrading and restoring in the region. This study assessed the effectiveness of adaptations and demonstrated that mixing gray and green infrastructures could benefit coastal inhabitants at a cost of 12 to 19 billion US$.

ACS Style

Pham Oanh; Makoto Tamura; Naoko Kumano; Quang Nguyen. Cost-Benefit Analysis of Mixing Gray and Green Infrastructures to Adapt to Sea Level Rise in the Vietnamese Mekong River Delta. Sustainability 2020, 12, 10356 .

AMA Style

Pham Oanh, Makoto Tamura, Naoko Kumano, Quang Nguyen. Cost-Benefit Analysis of Mixing Gray and Green Infrastructures to Adapt to Sea Level Rise in the Vietnamese Mekong River Delta. Sustainability. 2020; 12 (24):10356.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Pham Oanh; Makoto Tamura; Naoko Kumano; Quang Nguyen. 2020. "Cost-Benefit Analysis of Mixing Gray and Green Infrastructures to Adapt to Sea Level Rise in the Vietnamese Mekong River Delta." Sustainability 12, no. 24: 10356.

Journal article
Published: 05 May 2020 in Sustainability
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Coastal areas provide important services and functions for social and economic activities. Damage due to sea level rise (SLR) is one of the serious problems anticipated and caused by climate change. In this study, we assess the global economic impact of inundation due to SLR by using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that incorporates detailed coastal damage information. The scenario analysis considers multiple general circulation models, socioeconomic assumptions, and stringency of climate change mitigation measures. We found that the global household consumption loss proportion will be 0.045%, with a range of 0.027−0.066%, in 2100. Socioeconomic assumptions cause a difference in the loss proportion of up to 0.035% without greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation, the so-called baseline scenarios. The range of the loss proportion among GHG emission scenarios is smaller than the differences among the socioeconomic assumptions. We also observed large regional variations and, in particular, the consumption losses in low-income countries are, relatively speaking, larger than those in high-income countries. These results indicate that, even if we succeed in stabilizing the global mean temperature increase below 2 °C, economic losses caused by SLR will inevitably happen to some extent, which may imply that keeping the global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C would be worthwhile to consider.

ACS Style

Osamu Nishiura; Makoto Tamura; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Junya Takakura; Yasuaki Hijioka. An Assessment of Global Macroeconomic Impacts Caused by Sea Level Rise Using the Framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways. Sustainability 2020, 12, 3737 .

AMA Style

Osamu Nishiura, Makoto Tamura, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Junya Takakura, Yasuaki Hijioka. An Assessment of Global Macroeconomic Impacts Caused by Sea Level Rise Using the Framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways. Sustainability. 2020; 12 (9):3737.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Osamu Nishiura; Makoto Tamura; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Junya Takakura; Yasuaki Hijioka. 2020. "An Assessment of Global Macroeconomic Impacts Caused by Sea Level Rise Using the Framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways." Sustainability 12, no. 9: 3737.

Article
Published: 05 January 2019 in Climatic Change
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The objective of this study is to assess the global impact of sea level rise and to evaluate the effectiveness of adaptation. Global areas of inundation due to sea level rise are identified. The affected populations and the economic damage caused by inundation due to future climate change are estimated for a number of scenarios involving Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). The effects of adaptation in coastal areas, specifically the effects of elevating dikes, are evaluated. According to study results, dikes 1 m in height may reduce the total inundated area by approximately 40% below the no-adaptation baseline under the same RCP. The cost of adaptation was estimated using an original cost database to establish the cost of protection in future socioeconomic scenarios. It was found that the incremental adaptation cost was less than the economic damage in almost all cases of RCP/SSP, providing an incentive to take action to respond to climate change.

ACS Style

Makoto Tamura; Naoko Kumano; Mizuki Yotsukuri; Hiromune Yokoki. Global assessment of the effectiveness of adaptation in coastal areas based on RCP/SSP scenarios. Climatic Change 2019, 152, 363 -377.

AMA Style

Makoto Tamura, Naoko Kumano, Mizuki Yotsukuri, Hiromune Yokoki. Global assessment of the effectiveness of adaptation in coastal areas based on RCP/SSP scenarios. Climatic Change. 2019; 152 (3-4):363-377.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Makoto Tamura; Naoko Kumano; Mizuki Yotsukuri; Hiromune Yokoki. 2019. "Global assessment of the effectiveness of adaptation in coastal areas based on RCP/SSP scenarios." Climatic Change 152, no. 3-4: 363-377.

Journal article
Published: 01 January 2017 in Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research)
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気候変動に伴い,高潮等の浸水被害が高い頻度で発生することが予測されている.このため,高潮等の沿岸域災害に対するリスクを適切に評価し,対策を立案することが重要となる.しかし,浸水被害額は手法によって推計結果が異なるにも関わらず,手法毎の推計結果の違いを体系的に整理,検証した研究は少ない.本研究では,伊勢湾台風を基準とし,土地利用図と治水経済調査マニュアルを用いた推計方法,影響人口とGDPを用いた簡易な推計方法,各々の被害額を求めて両者の特徴を比較,検証した.その結果,復興誌に記載された被害額よりも前者は約10倍,後者は約1/10倍になることがわかった.両手法は,被害額推定に用いるデータが異なるため,研究目的,対象領域,データの入手可能性などに応じて使い分けることが望まれる.

ACS Style

Haruki Yanai; Naoko Kumano; Makoto Tamura; Hiromune Yokoki; Yuji Kuwahara. VERIFICATION OF THE ESTIMATION METHOD FOR ECONOMIC DAMAGE OF STORM SURGE IN THE CASE OF ISEWAN TYPHOON. Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research) 2017, 73, I_361 -I_367.

AMA Style

Haruki Yanai, Naoko Kumano, Makoto Tamura, Hiromune Yokoki, Yuji Kuwahara. VERIFICATION OF THE ESTIMATION METHOD FOR ECONOMIC DAMAGE OF STORM SURGE IN THE CASE OF ISEWAN TYPHOON. Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research). 2017; 73 (5):I_361-I_367.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Haruki Yanai; Naoko Kumano; Makoto Tamura; Hiromune Yokoki; Yuji Kuwahara. 2017. "VERIFICATION OF THE ESTIMATION METHOD FOR ECONOMIC DAMAGE OF STORM SURGE IN THE CASE OF ISEWAN TYPHOON." Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research) 73, no. 5: I_361-I_367.

Journal article
Published: 01 January 2017 in Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research)
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本稿では,最新の気候シナリオ(CMIP5,RCPシナリオ)および社会経済シナリオ(SSPシナリオ)を用いて海面水位上昇量および潮汐変動を考慮した全球規模の浸水影響を評価した.その結果,大潮の満潮時に海面上昇を考慮した場合の2100年における潜在的浸水面積は約37万km2(RCP2.6)~42万km2(RCP8.5),影響人口は約5,530万人(RCP2.6, SSP1)~1.06億人(RCP8.5, SSP3)という推計値を得た.さらに主な国別の浸水影響や全球規模の浸水被害額を評価した.これら全球沿岸域における気候変動影響の定量的評価は,地域毎の最適な適応策を検討するための判断材料となることが期待される.

ACS Style

Mizuki Yotsukuri; Makoto Tamura; Naoko Kumano; Eiji Masunaga; Hiromune Yokoki. GLOBAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF SEA LEVEL RISE BASED ON RCP/SSP SCENARIOS. Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research) 2017, 73, I_369 -I_376.

AMA Style

Mizuki Yotsukuri, Makoto Tamura, Naoko Kumano, Eiji Masunaga, Hiromune Yokoki. GLOBAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF SEA LEVEL RISE BASED ON RCP/SSP SCENARIOS. Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research). 2017; 73 (5):I_369-I_376.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Mizuki Yotsukuri; Makoto Tamura; Naoko Kumano; Eiji Masunaga; Hiromune Yokoki. 2017. "GLOBAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF SEA LEVEL RISE BASED ON RCP/SSP SCENARIOS." Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. G (Environmental Research) 73, no. 5: I_369-I_376.

Journal article
Published: 01 January 2017 in Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B3 (Ocean Engineering)
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気候変動に伴う海面上昇への適応策を講じるに当たっては,複数の対策の費用便益を考慮した効率的な選択が重要である.その際に,海岸防護の費用を把握することは適応策を判断するための有用な情報となる.そこで本稿では,まず,これまで設置された防護施設(堤防・護岸)費用を収集し,一人当たり実質GDPとの関係やモデル堤防を用いて防護新設・嵩上げの将来費用を導出した.次に,日本において将来の海面上昇や社会経済を考慮し,堤防の新設と嵩上げを組み合わせた防護シナリオに基づく将来の防護費用の評価を行った.これらの防護費用を過去の実質GDPと海岸事業費の割合と比較した.その結果,現在設置済みの施設の更新は新設することでも可能だが,新規設置と嵩上げの両方を組み合わせることで費用はさらに抑えられることが確認できた.

ACS Style

Naoko Kumano; Koujirou Tuchida; Makoto Tamura; Eiji Masunaga; Yuji Kuwahara; Hiromune Yokoki. ESTIMATING THE COST OF COASTAL PROTECTION BASED ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC SCENARIOS IN JAPAN. Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B3 (Ocean Engineering) 2017, 73, I_1007 -I_1012.

AMA Style

Naoko Kumano, Koujirou Tuchida, Makoto Tamura, Eiji Masunaga, Yuji Kuwahara, Hiromune Yokoki. ESTIMATING THE COST OF COASTAL PROTECTION BASED ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC SCENARIOS IN JAPAN. Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B3 (Ocean Engineering). 2017; 73 (2):I_1007-I_1012.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Naoko Kumano; Koujirou Tuchida; Makoto Tamura; Eiji Masunaga; Yuji Kuwahara; Hiromune Yokoki. 2017. "ESTIMATING THE COST OF COASTAL PROTECTION BASED ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC SCENARIOS IN JAPAN." Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B3 (Ocean Engineering) 73, no. 2: I_1007-I_1012.