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Dr. Bruce E. Tonn
Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, P.O. Box 2008, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, 37831-6038, USA

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Journal article
Published: 24 May 2021 in Futures
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Trend assessments suggest that poverty and health will worsen in the United States in the coming decades and that climate change will exacerbate these trends. An aging society, lack of affordable housing, and automation threaten the economic sustainability of millions of households. Despair, drug abuse, and unhealthy lifestyles have led to the first decline in life spans in the U.S. during a non-war period. Extreme weather events caused by climate change can be anticipated to disrupt economic activities and destroy homes and infrastructure, pushing millions of more Americans into poverty. A warming climate threatens vulnerable individuals, such as elders, with heat stress, increasing levels of air pollution, and increasing risks from new tropical diseases entering the country. It is anticipated that climate change will force tens of millions of Americans from their homes, creating The Great Migration (TGM) scenario. The welfare of the migrants will depend on what types of human settlements they migrate to. Seven different types of settlements are depicted within the TGM scenario, such as Willow Pond settlements that represent radical redesigns of suburbs to make them sustainable and resilient to climate change. Numerous recommendations are provided to foster positive outcomes with respect to TGM, including having the U.S. formally designate that the right to safe and adequate housing is a human right.

ACS Style

Bruce Tonn; Beth Hawkins; Erin Rose; Michaela Marincic. A futures perspective of health, climate change and poverty in the United States. Futures 2021, 131, 102759 .

AMA Style

Bruce Tonn, Beth Hawkins, Erin Rose, Michaela Marincic. A futures perspective of health, climate change and poverty in the United States. Futures. 2021; 131 ():102759.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bruce Tonn; Beth Hawkins; Erin Rose; Michaela Marincic. 2021. "A futures perspective of health, climate change and poverty in the United States." Futures 131, no. : 102759.

Journal article
Published: 06 April 2021 in Building and Environment
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The purpose of this research is to estimate the non-energy impacts that could be attributed to weatherizing low-income homes in Knoxville, Tennessee, USA. Commonly installed weatherization measures include insulation, air sealing, and heating system replacement. A hybrid quasi-experimental, cross-sectional research design was implemented. Under this design three samples of households were recruited for the project: Comparison homes that had been weatherized one-year previously; Treatment homes that were in the queue to be weatherized; and Control homes that were not going to be weatherized during the course of the project. Control homes were drawn from a lengthy waiting list. Homes were surveyed twice. The first phase occurred during four-month period when Treatment homes came up for weatherization. Comparison and Control homes were also surveyed during this four-month period. The second phase entailed surveying all households approximately one-year later. The phone survey contained questions about home conditions, health of occupants, and household finances. The cross-sectional analyses were much stronger, from a statistical significant viewpoint, than the quasi-experimental design approach because sample sizes were larger for the former and the latter was plagued by inexplicably large changes reported by the Control group. Post-weatherization homes were less likely to be kept at unhealthy temperatures, were less drafty and dusty, and had reduced levels of mold and intrusion of outdoor noise and odors. Respondents reported fewer bad days of physical and mental health. Households were better able to pay their energy bills and afford prescriptions.

ACS Style

Bruce Tonn; Erin Rose; Beth Hawkins; Michaela Marincic. Health and financial benefits of weatherizing low-income homes in the southeastern United States. Building and Environment 2021, 197, 107847 .

AMA Style

Bruce Tonn, Erin Rose, Beth Hawkins, Michaela Marincic. Health and financial benefits of weatherizing low-income homes in the southeastern United States. Building and Environment. 2021; 197 ():107847.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bruce Tonn; Erin Rose; Beth Hawkins; Michaela Marincic. 2021. "Health and financial benefits of weatherizing low-income homes in the southeastern United States." Building and Environment 197, no. : 107847.

Journal article
Published: 09 February 2021 in Energy Research & Social Science
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This paper explores the intersection of poverty, housing, and health among low-income weatherization program participants in the United States. These income-qualifying programs seek to reduce energy burden, which is the proportion of a household’s annual income spent on residential energy. These programs produce secondary benefits by reducing material deprivation, health inequalities, and energy poverty (which differs from energy burden in that it considers whether households are compressing their energy needs to meet what they can afford). This paper mines survey data from four evaluations of weatherization programs to provide new insights into the characteristics of households and their homes entering weatherization programs. These data allow assessments of similarities and differences by housing type (single-family, mobile home, and multifamily) and region that could then provide insights into health and social determinants of health non-energy impacts accruable by different weatherization programs. These data also provide an opportunity to assess more specific aspects of poverty and health. The results provide several important insights. One, contrary to expectations, households residing in mobile homes do not appear to be facing more hardship than those who live in single-family homes. Also contrary to expectations, households living in multifamily buildings appear to be facing less financial hardship and live in better housing conditions than their counterparts who live in single-family and mobile homes. Two, it was found that there are significant differences between household status within each program. Approximately 20–30% of households report significant material deprivation and poor health whereas 50–75% of households do not. Demographic analysis found that the former can be described as “near-elderly” with less employment prospects and less access to health care. A majority of the latter report being retired and therefore more likely to receive social security benefits and Medicare. Weatherization programs could move beyond limiting eligibility criteria to income poverty to better target their programs to households that suffer higher levels of financial hardship, material deprivation and health problems. The programs could also consider collaborating with the health care and public health sector to identify and refer households in most need of their services.

ACS Style

Bruce Tonn; Beth Hawkins; Erin Rose; Michaela Marincic. Income, housing and health: Poverty in the United States through the prism of residential energy efficiency programs. Energy Research & Social Science 2021, 73, 101945 .

AMA Style

Bruce Tonn, Beth Hawkins, Erin Rose, Michaela Marincic. Income, housing and health: Poverty in the United States through the prism of residential energy efficiency programs. Energy Research & Social Science. 2021; 73 ():101945.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bruce Tonn; Beth Hawkins; Erin Rose; Michaela Marincic. 2021. "Income, housing and health: Poverty in the United States through the prism of residential energy efficiency programs." Energy Research & Social Science 73, no. : 101945.

Review
Published: 15 January 2021 in Sustainability
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Wood-based pellets are produced in the southeastern United States (SE US) and shipped to Europe for the generation of heat and power. Effects of pellet production on selected Sustainability Development Goals (SDGs) are evaluated using industry information, available energy consumption data, and published research findings. Challenges associated with identifying relevant SDG goals and targets for this particular bioenergy supply chain and potential deleterious impacts are also discussed. We find that production of woody pellets in the SE US and shipments to displace coal for energy in Europe generate positive effects on affordable and clean energy (SDG 7), decent work and economic growth (SDG 8), industry innovation and infrastructure (SDG 9), responsible consumption and production (SDG 12), and life on land (SDG 15). Primary strengths of the pellet supply chain in the SE US are the provisioning of employment in depressed rural areas and the displacement of fossil fuels. Weaknesses are associated with potential impacts on air, water, and biodiversity that arise if the resource base and harvest activities are improperly managed. The SE US pellet supply chain provides an opportunity for transition to low-carbon industries and innovations while incentivizing better resource management.

ACS Style

Keith Kline; Virginia Dale; Erin Rose; Bruce Tonn. Effects of Production of Woody Pellets in the Southeastern United States on the Sustainable Development Goals. Sustainability 2021, 13, 821 .

AMA Style

Keith Kline, Virginia Dale, Erin Rose, Bruce Tonn. Effects of Production of Woody Pellets in the Southeastern United States on the Sustainable Development Goals. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (2):821.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Keith Kline; Virginia Dale; Erin Rose; Bruce Tonn. 2021. "Effects of Production of Woody Pellets in the Southeastern United States on the Sustainable Development Goals." Sustainability 13, no. 2: 821.

Research article
Published: 01 August 2018 in World Futures Review
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As science and technology change our world, anticipating the unintended consequences becomes critical. This article presents a framework for identifying unintended consequences, especially unanticipated-unintended consequences, and prioritizing the necessary actions to mitigate or adapt. Content for the framework, and the distinctions among the anticipated-intended, anticipated-unintended, and unanticipated-unintended consequences, are generated with four scenario types: evolution over time, market-saturation, interventions in tightly coupled systems, and existential risk of human extinction. To validate the framework, each scenario type is applied to historical and emerging technologies to anticipate the unintended consequences, including the causes, initiators, effects, actions to mitigate or adapt, and unmet obligations to future generations.

ACS Style

Bruce Edward Tonn; Dorian Stiefel. Anticipating the Unanticipated-Unintended Consequences of Scientific and Technological Purposive Actions. World Futures Review 2018, 11, 19 -50.

AMA Style

Bruce Edward Tonn, Dorian Stiefel. Anticipating the Unanticipated-Unintended Consequences of Scientific and Technological Purposive Actions. World Futures Review. 2018; 11 (1):19-50.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bruce Edward Tonn; Dorian Stiefel. 2018. "Anticipating the Unanticipated-Unintended Consequences of Scientific and Technological Purposive Actions." World Futures Review 11, no. 1: 19-50.

Journal article
Published: 09 April 2018 in Energy Policy
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This paper presents the results of two impact evaluations of the U.S. Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). This comprehensive weatherization program provides grants to U.S. states, which then provide grants to local weatherization agencies to weatherize income-eligible low-income homes. The program treats single family and mobile homes, and multifamily buildings in all climate zones. The impact evaluations focused on Program Years (PYs) 2008 and 2010. The latter fell during the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) period. The program supported the weatherization of 98,000 units in PY 2008 and 332,000 units in PY 2010. It is estimated that the program saved 2.3 trillion Btus in PY 2008 and 7.6 trillion Btus in PY 2010. These savings achieve $420 million in energy cost savings with respect to PY 2008 and $1.2 billion in savings in PY 2010. Environmental and health and household related benefits add $267 million and $1.2 billion and $694 million and $3.8 billion of co-benefits to the energy cost savings benefits. The average total benefit per unit weatherized in PY 2008 is $22,000 versus an average total cost of $4,700. These results for PY 2010 are $20,000 and $6,800, respectively.

ACS Style

B. Tonn; E. Rose; B. Hawkins. Evaluation of the U.S. department of energy’s weatherization assistance program: Impact results. Energy Policy 2018, 118, 279 -290.

AMA Style

B. Tonn, E. Rose, B. Hawkins. Evaluation of the U.S. department of energy’s weatherization assistance program: Impact results. Energy Policy. 2018; 118 ():279-290.

Chicago/Turabian Style

B. Tonn; E. Rose; B. Hawkins. 2018. "Evaluation of the U.S. department of energy’s weatherization assistance program: Impact results." Energy Policy 118, no. : 279-290.

Journal article
Published: 01 November 2014 in Futures
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ACS Style

Bruce Tonn; Dorian Stiefel. Human extinction risk and uncertainty: Assessing conditions for action. Futures 2014, 63, 134 -144.

AMA Style

Bruce Tonn, Dorian Stiefel. Human extinction risk and uncertainty: Assessing conditions for action. Futures. 2014; 63 ():134-144.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bruce Tonn; Dorian Stiefel. 2014. "Human extinction risk and uncertainty: Assessing conditions for action." Futures 63, no. : 134-144.

Journal article
Published: 01 March 2014 in Journal of Cleaner Production
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ACS Style

Bruce Tonn; Paul D. Frymier; Dorian Stiefel; Leah Soro Skinner; Nethika Suraweera; Rachel Tuck. Toward an infinitely reusable, recyclable, and renewable industrial ecosystem. Journal of Cleaner Production 2014, 66, 392 -406.

AMA Style

Bruce Tonn, Paul D. Frymier, Dorian Stiefel, Leah Soro Skinner, Nethika Suraweera, Rachel Tuck. Toward an infinitely reusable, recyclable, and renewable industrial ecosystem. Journal of Cleaner Production. 2014; 66 ():392-406.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bruce Tonn; Paul D. Frymier; Dorian Stiefel; Leah Soro Skinner; Nethika Suraweera; Rachel Tuck. 2014. "Toward an infinitely reusable, recyclable, and renewable industrial ecosystem." Journal of Cleaner Production 66, no. : 392-406.

Journal article
Published: 08 October 2013 in Futures
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This paper describes Willow Pond, a future residential community that is moving toward self-sufficiency. Driven by volatile food prices and supplies, volatile energy prices and supplies, economic globalization, frustration with politics, and technological convergence, the residents of Willow Pond introduced a self-sufficient structure. Home systems feature photovoltaic skins, fuel cells, and artificially intelligent home management. Local manufacturing systems feature only recyclable, reusable, and renewable materials; additive manufacturing; and sprawl farms. Willow Pond also boasts electric vehicles, immersive telecommunications, largely closed-loop water systems, redesigned community spaces, and central energy storage. Residential self-sufficiency challenges include shifting from a cash- to collaboration-based economy; managing community size to maximize efficiency; balancing technological versus human capital; and dealing with self-sufficiency versus traditional jobs, among others.

ACS Style

Bruce Tonn; Dorian Stiefel. Willow pond: A decentralized low-carbon future scenario. Futures 2013, 58, 91 -102.

AMA Style

Bruce Tonn, Dorian Stiefel. Willow pond: A decentralized low-carbon future scenario. Futures. 2013; 58 ():91-102.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bruce Tonn; Dorian Stiefel. 2013. "Willow pond: A decentralized low-carbon future scenario." Futures 58, no. : 91-102.