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University of Liège (Belgium), Faculty of Science, Department of Geography.
Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used with climate only to predict animal distribution changes. This approach however neglects the evolution of other components of the niche, like food resource availability. SDMs are also commonly used with plants. This also suffers limitations, notably an inability to capture the fertilizing effect of the rising CO2 concentration strengthening resilience to water stress. Alternatively, process-based dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) respond to CO2 concentration. To test the impact of the plant modelling method to model plant resources of animals, we studied the distribution of a Bolivian macaw, assuming that, under future climate, DVMs produce more conservative results than SDMs. We modelled the bird with an SDM driven by climate. For the plant, we used SDMs or a DVM. Under future climates, the macaw SDM showed increased probabilities of presence over the area of distribution and connected range extensions. For plants, SDMs did not forecast overall response. By contrast, the DVM produced increases of productivity, occupancy and diversity, also towards higher altitudes. The results offered positive perspectives for the macaw, more optimistic with the DVM than with the SDMs, than initially assumed. Nevertheless, major common threats remain, challenging the short-term survival of the macaw.
Alain Hambuckers; Simon de Harenne; Eberth Rocha Ledezma; Lilian Zúñiga Zeballos; Louis François. Predicting the Future Distribution of Ara rubrogenys, an Endemic Endangered Bird Species of the Andes, Taking into Account Trophic Interactions. Diversity 2021, 13, 94 .
AMA StyleAlain Hambuckers, Simon de Harenne, Eberth Rocha Ledezma, Lilian Zúñiga Zeballos, Louis François. Predicting the Future Distribution of Ara rubrogenys, an Endemic Endangered Bird Species of the Andes, Taking into Account Trophic Interactions. Diversity. 2021; 13 (2):94.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAlain Hambuckers; Simon de Harenne; Eberth Rocha Ledezma; Lilian Zúñiga Zeballos; Louis François. 2021. "Predicting the Future Distribution of Ara rubrogenys, an Endemic Endangered Bird Species of the Andes, Taking into Account Trophic Interactions." Diversity 13, no. 2: 94.