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Maria J. Santos
Department of Geography University of Zurich Zurich Switzerland

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Primary research article
Published: 28 July 2021 in Global Change Biology
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Atmospheric moisture recycling effectively increases the amount of usable water over land as the water can undergo multiple precipitation–evapotranspiration cycles. Differences in land cover and climate regulate the evapotranspiration flux. Forests can have deep roots that access groundwater facilitating transpiration throughout the dry season independent of precipitation. This stable transpiration buffers the forest against precipitation variability. However, it is not known whether the buffering effect, already modeled for tropical forests, is common to all forests globally. Here we apply a state-of-the-art Lagrangian moisture tracking model (UTrack) to study whether forest land cover in the upwind precipitationshed can lead to a reduction in monthly precipitation variability downwind. We found a significant buffering effect of forests in the precipitation variability of 10 out of 14 biomes globally. On average, if 50% of precipitation originates from forest, then we find a reduction in the coefficient of variation of monthly precipitation of 60%. We also observed that a high fraction of precipitation from non-forest land sources tends to have the opposite effect, that is, no buffering effect. The average variation of monthly precipitation was 69% higher in areas where 50% of precipitation originates from non-forest land sources in the precipitationshed. Our results emphasize the importance of land cover composition in the precipitationshed to buffer precipitation variability downwind, in particular forest cover. Understanding the influence of land cover in a precipitationshed on atmospheric moisture transport is key for evaluating an area's water-climate regulatory ecosystem services and may become increasingly important due to continued changes in land cover and climate change.

ACS Style

John C. O'Connor; Stefan C. Dekker; Arie Staal; Obbe A. Tuinenburg; Karin T. Rebel; Maria J. Santos. Forests buffer against variations in precipitation. Global Change Biology 2021, 1 .

AMA Style

John C. O'Connor, Stefan C. Dekker, Arie Staal, Obbe A. Tuinenburg, Karin T. Rebel, Maria J. Santos. Forests buffer against variations in precipitation. Global Change Biology. 2021; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

John C. O'Connor; Stefan C. Dekker; Arie Staal; Obbe A. Tuinenburg; Karin T. Rebel; Maria J. Santos. 2021. "Forests buffer against variations in precipitation." Global Change Biology , no. : 1.

Accepted manuscript
Published: 09 July 2021 in Environmental Research Letters
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The Amazon moisture recycling system has been widely examined because it is fundamental to maintain some of the global climate processes, however, we have yet to know to what extent the agricultural growing season is dependent on the evapotranspiration contribution from the Amazon forest. Here we use a moisture tracking model to calculate the forest's contribution to downwind precipitation. Specifically, we calculate the influence of moisture recycling on the seasonality of precipitation in the arc of deforestation with respect to the agricultural growing season. We calculated the wet season start, end and length using three scenarios (i) total precipitation with existing vegetation cover; (ii) where we replace forest's contribution to precipitation by replacing it with the equivalent from short vegetation; (iii) where the forest's contribution to precipitation is completely removed. We found that forest moisture recycling contributes up to 40% of monthly precipitation in the arc of deforestation. However, there is a strong spatial gradient in the forest's contribution to precipitation, which decreases from west to east. This gradient also coincides with suitability for double-cropping agriculture. Our scenarios excluding precipitation originating from forest indicated that forest is a key contributing factor in determining the wet season start. We found that even when the precipitation originating from forest was replaced by short vegetation there was a significant delay in the wet season start in our study regions. Interestingly the wet season end was more resilient to changes in precipitation source. However it is clear that moisture recycling plays a key role in determining the wet season end as when forest's contribution to precipitation was entirely removed the the wet season end arrived significantly earlier. These differences in wet season length were not detectable in the eastern states of Tocantins and Maranhão, as much less of the precipitation in these states originates from the forest. Our findings demonstrate the importance of forest in supporting double-cropping agriculture in the arc of deforestation. As agricultural intensification by double-cropping increases land-use efficiency, it may also reduce the demand for further deforestation. Therefore it is important to identify how the current forest extent provides this important ecosystem service

ACS Style

John C. O'Connor; Maria Joao Santos; Stefan C Dekker; Karin T Rebel; Obbe A. Tuinenburg. Atmospheric moisture contribution to the growing season in the Amazon arc of deforestation. Environmental Research Letters 2021, 16, 084026 .

AMA Style

John C. O'Connor, Maria Joao Santos, Stefan C Dekker, Karin T Rebel, Obbe A. Tuinenburg. Atmospheric moisture contribution to the growing season in the Amazon arc of deforestation. Environmental Research Letters. 2021; 16 (8):084026.

Chicago/Turabian Style

John C. O'Connor; Maria Joao Santos; Stefan C Dekker; Karin T Rebel; Obbe A. Tuinenburg. 2021. "Atmospheric moisture contribution to the growing season in the Amazon arc of deforestation." Environmental Research Letters 16, no. 8: 084026.

Review
Published: 13 June 2021 in Landscape Ecology
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Context For many organisms, responses to climate change (CC) will be affected by land-use and land-cover changes (LULCC). However, the extent to which LULCC is concurrently considered in climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) is unclear. Objectives We identify trends in inclusion of LULCC and CC in vulnerability assessments of species and the direction and magnitude of their combined effect on biodiversity. Further, we examine the effect size of LULCC and CC in driving changes in “currencies” of response to CC, such as distribution, abundance and survival. Methods We conducted a systematic literature review of articles published in the last 30 years that focused on CCVA and accounted for impacts of both CC and LULCC. Results Across 116 studies, 34% assumed CC and LULCC would act additively, while 66% allowed for interactive effects. The majority of CCVAs reported similar effect sizes for CC and LULCC, although they affected different CCVA currencies. Only 14% of the studies showed larger effects of CC than of LULCC. Another 14% showed larger effects of LULCC than CC, specifically for dispersal, population viability, and reproduction, which tend to be strongly affected by fragmentation and disturbance. Although most studies found that LULCC and CC had negative effects on species currencies, in some cases effects were neutral or even positive. Conclusions CCVAs that incorporate LULCC provided a better account of drivers of vulnerability, and highlight aspects of drivers that are generally more amenable to on-the-ground management intervention than CCVAs that focus on CC alone.

ACS Style

Maria J. Santos; Adam B. Smith; Stefan C. Dekker; Maarten B. Eppinga; Pedro J. Leitão; David Moreno-Mateos; Naia Morueta-Holme; Michael Ruggeri. The role of land use and land cover change in climate change vulnerability assessments of biodiversity: a systematic review. Landscape Ecology 2021, 1 -16.

AMA Style

Maria J. Santos, Adam B. Smith, Stefan C. Dekker, Maarten B. Eppinga, Pedro J. Leitão, David Moreno-Mateos, Naia Morueta-Holme, Michael Ruggeri. The role of land use and land cover change in climate change vulnerability assessments of biodiversity: a systematic review. Landscape Ecology. 2021; ():1-16.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Maria J. Santos; Adam B. Smith; Stefan C. Dekker; Maarten B. Eppinga; Pedro J. Leitão; David Moreno-Mateos; Naia Morueta-Holme; Michael Ruggeri. 2021. "The role of land use and land cover change in climate change vulnerability assessments of biodiversity: a systematic review." Landscape Ecology , no. : 1-16.

Original paper
Published: 20 May 2021 in Biological Invasions
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Invasive alien species (IAS) are the major cause of native species extinctions on islands worldwide. To mitigate or eliminate IAS impacts, eradication is often the best alternative. However, IAS removal may result in cascading effects, through increase in prey abundance, mesopredator release, or competitor release. Our objective is to determine which ecological processes may influence the relative abundance of invasive carnivores and rodents on an insular system. We find that feral cat and mustelids relative abundance was strongly related by prey abundance, and for the feral cat, abundance was also controlled by habitat; these results suggest that bottom-up control through environmental filtering could be the mechanism explaining predator abundance. For rodents, we find that the abundance of the black rat was mostly controlled by the abundance of Norway rat and house mice, and food availability; the Norway rat by the abundance of black rat, a house mice and of mustelid predators; and house mouse by the other rodents and food availability. These results suggest that several mechanisms could be concurrently controlling abundance of these species; competition and predation for Norway rat, and competition and bottom-up control by environmental filtering for the other two rodents. While different factors explain the abundance of invasive species within the same functional group, food resource availability is, in general, the main controller of abundance of invasive rodents and carnivores in the Azores. Therefore, IAS management actions in these islands should focus on limiting the access to food resources and shelter, mainly near to human populations.

ACS Style

Lucas Lamelas-López; Maria João Santos. Factors influencing the relative abundance of invasive predators and omnivores on islands. Biological Invasions 2021, 1 -12.

AMA Style

Lucas Lamelas-López, Maria João Santos. Factors influencing the relative abundance of invasive predators and omnivores on islands. Biological Invasions. 2021; ():1-12.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Lucas Lamelas-López; Maria João Santos. 2021. "Factors influencing the relative abundance of invasive predators and omnivores on islands." Biological Invasions , no. : 1-12.

Preprint content
Published: 17 May 2021
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African Swine Fever (ASF) has emerged as a disease of great concern to swine producers and government disease control agencies because of its severe consequences to animal health and the pig industry. Early detection of an ASF introduction is considered essential for reducing the harm caused by the disease. Risk-based surveillance approaches have been used as enhancements to early disease epidemic detection systems in livestock populations. Such approaches may consider the role wildlife plays in hosting and transmitting a disease. In this study, a novel method is presented to estimate and map the risk of introducing ASF into the domestic pig population through wild boar intermediate hosts. It makes use of data about hunted wild boar, rest areas along motorways connecting ASF affected countries to Switzerland, outdoor piggeries, and forest cover. These data were used to compute relative wild boar abundance as well as to estimate the risk of both disease introduction into the wild boar population and disease transmission to domestic pigs. The way relative wild boar abundance was calculated adds to the current state of the art by considering the effect of beech mast on hunting success and the probability of wild boar occurrence when distributing relative abundance values among individual grid cells. The risk of ASF introduction into the domestic pig population by wild boar was highest near the borders of France, Germany, and Italy. On the north side of the Alps, areas of high risk were located on the unshielded side of the main motorway crossing the Central Plateau, which acts as a barrier for wild boar. The results of this study can be used to focus surveillance efforts for early disease detection on high risk areas. The developed method may also inform policies to control other diseases that are transmitted by direct contact from wild boar to domestic pigs.

ACS Style

Maria Elena Vargas Amado; Luís Pedro Carmo; John Berezowski; Claude Fischer; Maria João Santos; Rolf Grütter. Towards risk-based surveillance of African Swine Fever in Switzerland. 2021, 1 .

AMA Style

Maria Elena Vargas Amado, Luís Pedro Carmo, John Berezowski, Claude Fischer, Maria João Santos, Rolf Grütter. Towards risk-based surveillance of African Swine Fever in Switzerland. . 2021; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Maria Elena Vargas Amado; Luís Pedro Carmo; John Berezowski; Claude Fischer; Maria João Santos; Rolf Grütter. 2021. "Towards risk-based surveillance of African Swine Fever in Switzerland." , no. : 1.

Application
Published: 27 February 2021 in Methods in Ecology and Evolution
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Ecosystem heterogeneity has been widely recognized as a key ecological feature, influencing several ecological functions, since it is strictly related to several ecological functions like diversity patterns and change, metapopulation dynamics, population connectivity, or gene flow. In this paper, we present a new R package ‐ rasterdiv ‐ to calculate heterogeneity indices based on remotely sensed data. We also provide an ecological application at the landscape scale and demonstrate its power in revealing potentially hidden heterogeneity patterns. The rasterdiv package allows calculating multiple indices, robustly rooted in Information Theory, and based on reproducible open source algorithms.

ACS Style

Duccio Rocchini; Elisa Thouverai; Matteo Marcantonio; Martina Iannacito; Daniele Da Re; Michele Torresani; Giovanni Bacaro; Manuele Bazzichetto; Alessandra Bernardi; Giles M. Foody; Reinhard Furrer; David Kleijn; Stefano Larsen; Jonathan Lenoir; Marco Malavasi; Elisa Marchetto; Filippo Messori; Alessandro Montaghi; Vítězslav Moudrý; Babak Naimi; Carlo Ricotta; Micol Rossini; Francesco Santi; Maria J. Santos; Michael E. Schaepman; Fabian D. Schneider; Leila Schuh; Sonia Silvestri; Petra Ŝímová; Andrew K. Skidmore; Clara Tattoni; Enrico Tordoni; Saverio Vicario; Piero Zannini; Martin Wegmann. rasterdiv—An Information Theory tailored R package for measuring ecosystem heterogeneity from space: To the origin and back. Methods in Ecology and Evolution 2021, 12, 1093 -1102.

AMA Style

Duccio Rocchini, Elisa Thouverai, Matteo Marcantonio, Martina Iannacito, Daniele Da Re, Michele Torresani, Giovanni Bacaro, Manuele Bazzichetto, Alessandra Bernardi, Giles M. Foody, Reinhard Furrer, David Kleijn, Stefano Larsen, Jonathan Lenoir, Marco Malavasi, Elisa Marchetto, Filippo Messori, Alessandro Montaghi, Vítězslav Moudrý, Babak Naimi, Carlo Ricotta, Micol Rossini, Francesco Santi, Maria J. Santos, Michael E. Schaepman, Fabian D. Schneider, Leila Schuh, Sonia Silvestri, Petra Ŝímová, Andrew K. Skidmore, Clara Tattoni, Enrico Tordoni, Saverio Vicario, Piero Zannini, Martin Wegmann. rasterdiv—An Information Theory tailored R package for measuring ecosystem heterogeneity from space: To the origin and back. Methods in Ecology and Evolution. 2021; 12 (6):1093-1102.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Duccio Rocchini; Elisa Thouverai; Matteo Marcantonio; Martina Iannacito; Daniele Da Re; Michele Torresani; Giovanni Bacaro; Manuele Bazzichetto; Alessandra Bernardi; Giles M. Foody; Reinhard Furrer; David Kleijn; Stefano Larsen; Jonathan Lenoir; Marco Malavasi; Elisa Marchetto; Filippo Messori; Alessandro Montaghi; Vítězslav Moudrý; Babak Naimi; Carlo Ricotta; Micol Rossini; Francesco Santi; Maria J. Santos; Michael E. Schaepman; Fabian D. Schneider; Leila Schuh; Sonia Silvestri; Petra Ŝímová; Andrew K. Skidmore; Clara Tattoni; Enrico Tordoni; Saverio Vicario; Piero Zannini; Martin Wegmann. 2021. "rasterdiv—An Information Theory tailored R package for measuring ecosystem heterogeneity from space: To the origin and back." Methods in Ecology and Evolution 12, no. 6: 1093-1102.

Review paper
Published: 15 January 2021 in Biodiversity and Conservation
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The growing needs for agricultural expansion and intensification will likely continue to reduce and fragment the terrestrial habitats fundamental to mammalian carnivores. Recent research identified benefits of agroecosystems to carnivores recognizing their multifunctionality, mostly for common species. However, the variability of carnivore ecology investigated in agroecosystems, biases in agriculture types and species targeted, and methodological approaches may affect the available knowledge to reconcile conservation and agricultural production. To fill this gap, we conducted a systematic literature review to identify which aspects of and how is carnivore spatial ecology being investigated within agroecosystems. Of the 110 reviewed studies, most focused on agricultural crops (55%) and grasslands (47%) and half referred to monocultures. We found that 61% of the studies were conducted in Europe and North America. Eighty-four carnivore species were studied, 73% classified as Least Concern, with 67% of the studies targeting a single species and 30% focused on only seven common species. Almost all studies included some form of habitat use analysis and species’ home-range and its attributes (e.g. size, resource selection), the most common spatial ecology aspects studied. Most studies suggested that agriculture functions as food provisioning (69%) but few used direct food availability measures. Our results highlight that studies tend to be descriptive and geographically biased towards northern hemisphere and to non-forested agricultural types. We suggest that future carnivore spatial ecology research in agroecosystem should be hypotheses-driven, with greater focus on the mechanisms and processes through which agroecosystems might affect carnivore spatial ecology in particular for areas with high priority for carnivore conservation.

ACS Style

Gonçalo Curveira-Santos; Maria João Santos; Margarida Santos-Reis; Luís Miguel Rosalino. Global patterns of carnivore spatial ecology research in agroecosystems. Biodiversity and Conservation 2021, 30, 257 -273.

AMA Style

Gonçalo Curveira-Santos, Maria João Santos, Margarida Santos-Reis, Luís Miguel Rosalino. Global patterns of carnivore spatial ecology research in agroecosystems. Biodiversity and Conservation. 2021; 30 (2):257-273.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Gonçalo Curveira-Santos; Maria João Santos; Margarida Santos-Reis; Luís Miguel Rosalino. 2021. "Global patterns of carnivore spatial ecology research in agroecosystems." Biodiversity and Conservation 30, no. 2: 257-273.

Journal article
Published: 11 November 2020 in Scientific Reports
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Delta systems are fundamental to the persistence of large human populations, food systems and ecosystem processes. Structural changes in natural and social components of deltas, emerging from past land-use changes, have led deltas to become locked-in loosing the ability to transform back into living deltas, and making them more at risk. We propose a framework to assess whether deltas become locked-in by changes in natural or social infrastructure, by examining the dynamic coupling between population and land-use development over 300 years for 48 deltas globally. We find that 46% of the deltas are defined as living, where population, irrigation, and cropland are correlated. Of the 54% locked-in deltas, 21% show changes in natural infrastructure to cropland (n = 6) or irrigation (n = 4), and 33% (n = 16) show changes in social infrastructure. Most locked-in deltas are in Europe but also in other continents due to decoupled development of population and cropland. While, locked-in deltas due to changes in natural infrastructure have highest average risks, those with changes in social infrastructure and the living deltas have highest risks from future relative sea level rise. These results show that deltas have varying natural and social components derived from a 300 years historical perspective, which are not taken into account in risk assessments for global deltas.

ACS Style

Maria J. Santos; Stefan C. Dekker. Locked-in and living delta pathways in the Anthropocene. Scientific Reports 2020, 10, 1 -10.

AMA Style

Maria J. Santos, Stefan C. Dekker. Locked-in and living delta pathways in the Anthropocene. Scientific Reports. 2020; 10 (1):1-10.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Maria J. Santos; Stefan C. Dekker. 2020. "Locked-in and living delta pathways in the Anthropocene." Scientific Reports 10, no. 1: 1-10.

Journal article
Published: 21 September 2020 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
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Fishers with individual catch quota, but limited control over the mix of species caught, depend on trade and catch–quota balancing allowances to fully utilize their quota without discarding. However, these allowances can theoretically lead to overfishing if total allowable catches (TACs) are consistently exceeded. This study investigates usage of balancing allowances by the Icelandic demersal fleet over 2001–2017, for over 1,900 vessels. When a vessel’s demersal catch exceeds owned and leased quota for a given species, the gap can be bridged by borrowing quota from the subsequent fishing period or transforming unutilized quota in other species, restricted by limits. Conversely, excess quota can be saved or transformed into quota for species where there is a shortfall. We found evidence that balancing behavior is frequently similar across the fleet. Transformations are consistent with indicators of a general quota shortage and potential for arbitrage caused by differences in conversion ratios used for transformation and lease prices. Larger companies contribute more to these patterns. Nevertheless, TAC overages are generally modest especially in recent years—key reasons appear to be the tightening of vessel transformation limits and the central role of Atlantic cod, which is the main target species but cannot be persistently overfished due to a specific prohibition on positive transformations into the species. These results show how the tailored design of the Icelandic catch–quota balancing system has helped in balancing economic and ecological goals of management. We suggest policy changes that could further reduce ecological risks, e.g., prioritizing between-year transfers over transformations.

ACS Style

Maartje Oostdijk; Conor Byrne; Gunnar Stefánsson; Maria J. Santos; Pamela J. Woods. Catch–quota matching allowances balance economic and ecological targets in a fishery managed by individual transferable quota. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 2020, 117, 24771 -24777.

AMA Style

Maartje Oostdijk, Conor Byrne, Gunnar Stefánsson, Maria J. Santos, Pamela J. Woods. Catch–quota matching allowances balance economic and ecological targets in a fishery managed by individual transferable quota. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2020; 117 (40):24771-24777.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Maartje Oostdijk; Conor Byrne; Gunnar Stefánsson; Maria J. Santos; Pamela J. Woods. 2020. "Catch–quota matching allowances balance economic and ecological targets in a fishery managed by individual transferable quota." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117, no. 40: 24771-24777.

Research
Published: 02 September 2020 in Ecography
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Models of species’ distributions and niches are frequently used to infer the importance of range‐ and niche‐defining variables. However, the degree to which these models can reliably identify important variables and quantify their influence remains unknown. Here we use a series of simulations to explore how well models can 1) discriminate between variables with different influence and 2) calibrate the magnitude of influence relative to an ‘omniscient’ model. To quantify variable importance, we trained generalized additive models (GAMs), Maxent and boosted regression trees (BRTs) on simulated data and tested their sensitivity to permutations in each predictor. Importance was inferred by calculating the correlation between permuted and unpermuted predictions, and by comparing predictive accuracy of permuted and unpermuted predictions using AUC and the continuous Boyce index. In scenarios with one influential and one uninfluential variable, models failed to discriminate reliably between variables when training occurrences were < 8–64, prevalence was > 0.5, spatial extent was small, environmental data had coarse resolution and spatial autocorrelation was low, or when pairwise correlation between environmental variables was |r| > 0.7. When two variables influenced the distribution equally, importance was underestimated when species had narrow or intermediate niche breadth. Interactions between variables in how they shaped the niche did not affect inferences about their importance. When variables acted unequally, the effect of the stronger variable was overestimated. GAMs and Maxent discriminated between variables more reliably than BRTs, but no algorithm was consistently well‐calibrated vis‐à‐vis the omniscient model. Algorithm‐specific measures of importance like Maxent's change‐in‐gain metric were less robust than the permutation test. Overall, high predictive accuracy did not connote robust inferential capacity. As a result, requirements for reliably measuring variable importance are likely more stringent than for creating models with high predictive accuracy.

ACS Style

Adam B. Smith; Maria J. Santos. Testing the ability of species distribution models to infer variable importance. Ecography 2020, 43, 1801 -1813.

AMA Style

Adam B. Smith, Maria J. Santos. Testing the ability of species distribution models to infer variable importance. Ecography. 2020; 43 (12):1801-1813.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Adam B. Smith; Maria J. Santos. 2020. "Testing the ability of species distribution models to infer variable importance." Ecography 43, no. 12: 1801-1813.

Preprint content
Published: 23 March 2020
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Delta systems are growingly at risk from ongoing global changes, sediment dynamics, and face many pressures from both upstream land use change and downstream sea level rise. Historically, deltas have been key locations for human occupation, and currently hold over 340 million inhabitants globally. This continuing pressure and risks have led deltas to become locked-in, likely losing their ability to provide ecosystem services and resilience to global change. To assess whether global deltas ranging from living to locked-in have lost their resilience to changes, we (i) used historical HYDE data to reconstruct the development of population and land use in 48 major deltas over the last 310 years, (ii) determine whether deltas are in locked in states, and (iii) assess whether locked-in deltas are more at risk due to relative sea level rise (RSLR), hazards, anthropogenic condition, investment deficit, and provision of nature contributions to people. 46% of the analyzed deltas are living deltas (22 out of 48), i.e. yet to be locked-in. Of the locked-in deltas (26 out of 48), 21% (n=10) emerge due to engineered natural infrastructure as the development of cropland and irrigation and 33% (n=16) are locked-in due to institutional infrastructure, such as no development of population or agricultural land uses.  We find that average risk index is higher for locked-in deltas due to natural infrastructure changes (higher hazard and anthropogenic risks for cropland development and higher investment deficit risk for irrigation development). Surprisingly, the most at risk deltas to future RSLR are the ones locked-in due to institutional changes and living deltas. Many locked-in deltas may be even more at risk when considering their current ability to supply regulating and material ecosystem services/nature contributions to people. Our results suggest that locked-in deltas might be more at risk from current pressures, due to a reduction in the functioning of the natural processes that govern deltas, while deltas locked-in due to social and institutional infrastructure will be more at risk in the future. Further work is necessary to understand whether these trends can be reversed.

ACS Style

Maria J. Santos; Martin O. Reader; Stefan C. Dekker. Are locked-in or living deltas more at risk? 2020, 1 .

AMA Style

Maria J. Santos, Martin O. Reader, Stefan C. Dekker. Are locked-in or living deltas more at risk? . 2020; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Maria J. Santos; Martin O. Reader; Stefan C. Dekker. 2020. "Are locked-in or living deltas more at risk?" , no. : 1.

Journal article
Published: 02 March 2020 in Journal of Environmental Management
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The process of expanding a network of conservation areas includes identifying valuable areas for conservation, devising policies and implementing conservation actions on the ground. While the first two components are often analyzed in conservation science, the literature seldom focuses on the implementation process, particularly, how the governance structure acts as driver of conservation outcomes. In this paper, we analyze the process of development of the conservation network in California between 1910 and 2010 to test whether governance structure explains the variation in the attribution of land for conservation over time. We find that governance structure does play an important role in the development of the conservation network over the century. We find evidence that polycentric and diverse governance structures result in better conservation outcomes (i.e. more area of land acquired for conservation). Arrangements that included multiple levels of agencies (e.g. Federal, State, and County) better predict the area of conservation land per decade. Location of conservation action per county had an effect on conservation outcomes over the last decades, and we also find a strong negative effect of per capita income in the implementation of conservation actions. These results suggest that it is possible to leverage governance structure to meet future conservation challenges through the maintenance of a diverse and polycentric governance structure.

ACS Style

Maria J. Santos; Iris Hui. Effect of governance structure on conservation land acquisition in California over the last 100 years. Journal of Environmental Management 2020, 261, 110269 .

AMA Style

Maria J. Santos, Iris Hui. Effect of governance structure on conservation land acquisition in California over the last 100 years. Journal of Environmental Management. 2020; 261 ():110269.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Maria J. Santos; Iris Hui. 2020. "Effect of governance structure on conservation land acquisition in California over the last 100 years." Journal of Environmental Management 261, no. : 110269.

Accepted manuscript
Published: 01 December 2019 in Environmental Research Letters
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Many studies have reported that the Arctic is greening; however, we lack an understanding of the detailed patterns and processes that are leading to this observed greening. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is used to quantify greening, which has had largely positive trends over the last few decades using low spatial resolution satellite imagery such as AVHRR or MODIS over the pan-Arctic region. However, substantial fine scale spatial heterogeneity in the Arctic makes this large-scale investigation hard to interpret in terms of vegetation and other environmental changes. Here we focus on one area of the northern Alaska Arctic using high spatial resolution (4 m) multispectral satellite imagery from DigitalGlobe™ to analyze the greening trend near Utqiaġvik (formerly known as Barrow), Alaska over 14 years from 2002 to 2016. We found that tundra vegetation has been greening (τ = 0.65, p = 0.01, NDVI increase of 0.01 yr-1) despite no overall change in vegetation community composition. The greening is most closely correlated to the number of thawing degree days (R2 = 0.77, F = 21.5, p < 0.001) which, increased in a similar linear trend over the 14-year study period (1.79 ± 0.50 days per year, p < 0.01, τ = -0.56). This suggests that in this Arctic ecosystem, greening is occurring due to a lengthening growing season that appears to stimulate plant productivity without any significant change in vegetation communities. We found that vegetation communities in wetter locations greened about twice as fast as those found in drier conditions supporting the hypothesis that these communities respond more strongly to warming. We suggest that in Arctic environments, vegetation productivity may continue to rise, particularly in wet areas.

ACS Style

Kyle A Arndt; Maria Joao Santos; Susan Ustin; Scott J. Davidson; Doug Stow; Walter C Oechel; Thao T. P. Tran; Brian Graybill; Donatella Zona. Arctic greening associated with lengthening growing seasons in Northern Alaska. Environmental Research Letters 2019, 14, 125018 .

AMA Style

Kyle A Arndt, Maria Joao Santos, Susan Ustin, Scott J. Davidson, Doug Stow, Walter C Oechel, Thao T. P. Tran, Brian Graybill, Donatella Zona. Arctic greening associated with lengthening growing seasons in Northern Alaska. Environmental Research Letters. 2019; 14 (12):125018.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Kyle A Arndt; Maria Joao Santos; Susan Ustin; Scott J. Davidson; Doug Stow; Walter C Oechel; Thao T. P. Tran; Brian Graybill; Donatella Zona. 2019. "Arctic greening associated with lengthening growing seasons in Northern Alaska." Environmental Research Letters 14, no. 12: 125018.

Journal article
Published: 16 October 2019 in Ecosystem Services
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Crop production often comes at the expense of losses in ecosystem services and biodiversity; however, this might not always be the case. Here we test the effects of shade gradients and agricultural inputs on trade-offs or synergies between coffee yield and ecosystem services and biodiversity data for smallholder coffee plantations of Arabica coffee in Peru. We collected data using surveys (n = 162 farmers) and field sampling (n = 62 farms) and modelled the relationship between coffee yield, butterfly species richness and carbon storage, accounting for soil fertility and yield losses to pests and diseases. We found that both carbon and forest butterfly species richness were higher in plantations with more shade, and with no reduction in coffee yields with increasing shade. There were no significant correlations between coffee yield, forest butterfly species richness and carbon storage. Use of agricultural inputs, especially fertilizers, was highest in sites with low coffee yield, but was not related with either forest butterfly species richness or carbon. The lack of trade-offs between yield, forest butterfly species richness and carbon, and their relationships with shade and agricultural inputs suggest that it is possible to manage coffee agroforests to simultaneously provide multiple ecosystem services without reducing coffee yields.

ACS Style

Rosalien E. Jezeer; Maria J. Santos; Pita A. Verweij; René G.A. Boot; Yann Clough. Benefits for multiple ecosystem services in Peruvian coffee agroforestry systems without reducing yield. Ecosystem Services 2019, 40, 101033 .

AMA Style

Rosalien E. Jezeer, Maria J. Santos, Pita A. Verweij, René G.A. Boot, Yann Clough. Benefits for multiple ecosystem services in Peruvian coffee agroforestry systems without reducing yield. Ecosystem Services. 2019; 40 ():101033.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Rosalien E. Jezeer; Maria J. Santos; Pita A. Verweij; René G.A. Boot; Yann Clough. 2019. "Benefits for multiple ecosystem services in Peruvian coffee agroforestry systems without reducing yield." Ecosystem Services 40, no. : 101033.

Preprint
Published: 26 July 2019
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Models of species' distributions and niches are frequently used to infer the importance of range- and niche-defining variables. However, the degree to which these models can reliably identify important variables and quantify their influence remains unknown. Here we use a series of simulations to explore how well models can 1) discriminate between variables with different influence and 2) calibrate the magnitude of influence relative to an "omniscient" model. To quantify variable importance, we trained generalized additive models (GAMs), Maxent, and boosted regression trees (BRTs) on simulated data and tested their sensitivity to permutations in each predictor. Importance was inferred by calculating the correlation between permuted and unpermuted predictions, and by comparing predictive accuracy of permuted and unpermuted predictions using AUC and the Continuous Boyce Index. In scenarios with one influential and one uninfluential variable, models were unable to discriminate reliably between variables in conditions that are normally challenging for generating accurate predictions: training occurrences 0.5; small spatial extent; environmental data with coarse resolution when spatial autocorrelation is low; and correlation between environmental variables where |r| >0.7. When two variables influenced the distribution equally, importance was underestimated when species had narrow or intermediate niche breadth. Interactions between variables in how they shaped the niche did not affect inferences about their importance. When variables acted unequally, the effect of the stronger variable was overestimated. GAMs and Maxent discriminated between variables more reliably than BRTs, but no algorithm was consistently well-calibrated vis-a-vis the omniscient model. Algorithm-specific measures of importance like Maxent's change-in-gain metric were less robust than the permutation test. Overall, high predictive accuracy did not connote robust inferential capacity. As a result, requirements for reliably measuring variable importance are likely more stringent than for creating models with high predictive accuracy.

ACS Style

Adam B. Smith; Maria J. Santos. Testing the ability of species distribution models to infer variable importance. 2019, 1 .

AMA Style

Adam B. Smith, Maria J. Santos. Testing the ability of species distribution models to infer variable importance. . 2019; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Adam B. Smith; Maria J. Santos. 2019. "Testing the ability of species distribution models to infer variable importance." , no. : 1.

Journal article
Published: 07 May 2019 in Journal of Environmental Management
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Smallholder farmers might adopt different farming practices to cope with multiple stressors depending on their livelihood assets, and with varying environmental and economic outcomes. Ongoing global change is triggering stronger and different stressors that threaten conventional farming practices; however, this could be resolved if livelihood assets that drive decision making are actionable and thus can be modified. This study assessed the influence of farmers' livelihood assets, risk perception, and shocks on the choice of non-conventional farming practices for smallholder coffee farmers in San Martín, Peru. Using household survey data, we collected data on 162 coffee plantations along an elevation gradient. We operationalized the sustainable livelihoods framework for the adoption of shade and input coffee farming strategies and explored farmers’ motives to change them. Despite associated high risks with pest and disease pressure, coffee price volatility and climate change, these risks did not explain the current shade and input farming strategies. While in the past five years, farmers adapted shade and input management in response to pest and disease and climate change pressures, these occurred in diverging directions: we found higher human and social assets associated with higher shade levels, and a trend for higher physical and financial assets associated with higher input use. These findings illustrate that two main factors affect decisions on farming practices related to shade and input management and they relate to different livelihood capitals. This suggests a potential for conflicting decision-making, push-and-pulling decisions in different directions. Further the disconnect between livelihood assets and perceptions suggests that perception of risk and shocks might not be sufficient to motivate decision making under changing conditions. Such insights in decision-making typologies and drivers can inform the development of farming practices that enhance resilience and sustainability of smallholder coffee production in Peru and elsewhere in the tropics.

ACS Style

Rosalien E. Jezeer; Paul Verweij; René G.A. Boot; Martin Junginger; Maria J. Santos. Influence of livelihood assets, experienced shocks and perceived risks on smallholder coffee farming practices in Peru. Journal of Environmental Management 2019, 242, 496 -506.

AMA Style

Rosalien E. Jezeer, Paul Verweij, René G.A. Boot, Martin Junginger, Maria J. Santos. Influence of livelihood assets, experienced shocks and perceived risks on smallholder coffee farming practices in Peru. Journal of Environmental Management. 2019; 242 ():496-506.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Rosalien E. Jezeer; Paul Verweij; René G.A. Boot; Martin Junginger; Maria J. Santos. 2019. "Influence of livelihood assets, experienced shocks and perceived risks on smallholder coffee farming practices in Peru." Journal of Environmental Management 242, no. : 496-506.

Synthesis
Published: 21 April 2019 in Journal of Biogeography
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Alexander von Humboldt was arguably the most influential scientist of his day. Although his fame has since lessened relative to some of his contemporaries, we argue that his influence remains strong—mainly because his approach to science inspired others and was instrumental in furthering other scientific disciplines (such as evolution, through Darwin, and conservation science, through Muir)—and that he changed the way that large areas of science are done and communicated. Indeed, he has been called the father of a range of fields, including environmental science, earth system science, plant geography, ecology and conservation. His approach was characterized by making connections between non‐living and living nature (including humans), based on interdisciplinary thinking and informed by large amounts of data from systematic, accurate measurements in a geographical framework. Although his approach largely lacked an evolutionary perspective, he was fundamental to creating the circumstances for Darwin and Wallace to advance evolutionary science. He devoted considerable effort illustrating, communicating and popularizing science, centred on the excitement of pure science. In biogeography, his influence remains strong, including in relating climate to species distributions (e.g. biomes and latitudinal and elevational gradients) and in the use of remote sensing and species distribution modelling in macroecology. However, some key aspects of his approach have faded, particularly as science fragmented into specific disciplines and became more reductionist. We argue that asking questions in a more Humboldtian way is important for addressing current global challenges. This is well‐exemplified by researching links between geodiversity and biodiversity. Progress on this can be made by (a) systematic data collection to improve our knowledge of biodiversity and geodiversity around the world; (b) improving our understanding of the linkages between biodiversity and geodiversity; and (c) developing our understanding of the interactions of geological, biological, ecological, environmental and evolutionary processes in biogeography.

ACS Style

Franziska Schrodt; Maria J. Santos; Joseph J. Bailey; Richard Field. Challenges and opportunities for biogeography—What can we still learn from von Humboldt? Journal of Biogeography 2019, 46, 1631 -1642.

AMA Style

Franziska Schrodt, Maria J. Santos, Joseph J. Bailey, Richard Field. Challenges and opportunities for biogeography—What can we still learn from von Humboldt? Journal of Biogeography. 2019; 46 (8):1631-1642.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Franziska Schrodt; Maria J. Santos; Joseph J. Bailey; Richard Field. 2019. "Challenges and opportunities for biogeography—What can we still learn from von Humboldt?" Journal of Biogeography 46, no. 8: 1631-1642.

Letter
Published: 12 April 2019 in Conservation Letters
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Biodiversity conservation requires space where conservation measures are implemented for a desired purpose. Setting land aside for conservation has been widely applied, while novel conservation modes (private–public partnerships, private multipurpose land management) may be fundamental to achieve conservation goals. We perform an economic analysis of the cost development for two conservation options in California, in‐fee and easements, from 1970 to today. We find that in‐fee options have lower costs than easements in the long run. While there are high costs of purchase for in‐fee, ultimately they even‐out or generate profits. Costs of easements continue growing exponentially overtaking costs of purchase. Sensitivity analysis shows increases in purchasing prices and opportunity costs positively influencing conservation costs, while increasing interest rates negatively influence them. The results suggest that easements are not yet an economically viable alternative for in‐fee conservation purchases. Our analysis is a first step to assess economic viability of choosing easements.

ACS Style

Oliver Schöttker; Maria João Santos. Easement or public land? An economic analysis of different ownership modes for nature conservation measures in California. Conservation Letters 2019, 12, 1 .

AMA Style

Oliver Schöttker, Maria João Santos. Easement or public land? An economic analysis of different ownership modes for nature conservation measures in California. Conservation Letters. 2019; 12 (6):1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Oliver Schöttker; Maria João Santos. 2019. "Easement or public land? An economic analysis of different ownership modes for nature conservation measures in California." Conservation Letters 12, no. 6: 1.

Journal article
Published: 25 February 2019 in Sustainability
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Aquaculture is central in meeting expanding global demands for shrimp consumption. Consequently, increasing feed use is mainly responsible for the overall environmental impact of aquaculture production. Significant amounts of fishmeal are included in shrimp diets, causing dependency on finite marine resources. Driven by economic incentives, terrestrial plant ingredients are widely viewed as sustainable alternatives. Incremental fishmeal substitution by plant ingredients in shrimp feed was modeled and effects on marine and terrestrial resources such as fish, land, freshwater, nitrogen, and phosphorus were assessed. We find that complete substitution of 20–30% fishmeal totals could lead to increasing demand for freshwater (up to 63%), land (up to 81%), and phosphorus (up to 83%), while other substitution rates lead to proportionally lower impacts. These findings suggest additional pressures on essential agricultural resources with associated socio-economic and environmental effects as a trade-off to pressures on finite marine resources. Even though the production of shrimp feed (or aquafeed in general) utilizes only a small percentage of the global crop production, the findings indicate that the sustainability of substituting fishmeal by plant ingredients should not be taken for granted, especially since aquaculture has been one of the fastest growing food sectors. Therefore, the importance of utilizing by-products and novel ingredients such as microbial biomass, algae, and insect meals in mitigating the use of marine and terrestrial resources is discussed.

ACS Style

Wesley Malcorps; Björn Kok; Mike Van‘T Land; Maarten Fritz; Davy Van Doren; Kurt Servin; Paul Van Der Heijden; Roy Palmer; Neil Auchterlonie; Max Rietkerk; Maria Santos; Simon Davies. The Sustainability Conundrum of Fishmeal Substitution by Plant Ingredients in Shrimp Feeds. Sustainability 2019, 11, 1212 .

AMA Style

Wesley Malcorps, Björn Kok, Mike Van‘T Land, Maarten Fritz, Davy Van Doren, Kurt Servin, Paul Van Der Heijden, Roy Palmer, Neil Auchterlonie, Max Rietkerk, Maria Santos, Simon Davies. The Sustainability Conundrum of Fishmeal Substitution by Plant Ingredients in Shrimp Feeds. Sustainability. 2019; 11 (4):1212.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Wesley Malcorps; Björn Kok; Mike Van‘T Land; Maarten Fritz; Davy Van Doren; Kurt Servin; Paul Van Der Heijden; Roy Palmer; Neil Auchterlonie; Max Rietkerk; Maria Santos; Simon Davies. 2019. "The Sustainability Conundrum of Fishmeal Substitution by Plant Ingredients in Shrimp Feeds." Sustainability 11, no. 4: 1212.

Review
Published: 05 October 2018 in Remote Sensing
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The Amazon, and Neotropical forests, are one of the most important global biomes because of their extent and unique biodiversity, as well as their importance to global climate and as a habitat and resource for humans. Unravelling the influence of human presence on these forests is fundamental to our understanding of the biodiversity, ecosystem function, and service-providing potential. Human presence in these tropical rainforests dates back 13,000 years, and the impacts of this presence are hotly debated. Some authors suggest persistent effects of pre-Columbian plant domestication on current Amazonian forest composition. Other authors suggest that post-Columbian influence on forest composition is orders of magnitude higher than that of pre-Columbian times. Evidence from remote sensing has become increasingly useful as a way to help settle these debates. Here we review past, current, and future uses of remote sensing technology to detect human infrastructure in the Amazon and other Neotropical forests over the several historical periods of human presence, from archaeological to post-modern societies. We define human presence in terms of activities that left behind a footprint, such as settlements, earth-mounds, roads, use of timber and fuelwood, agriculture, soil, etc. Lastly, we discuss opportunities and challenges for the use of remote sensing to provide data and information necessary to expand our understanding of the history of human occupation in the Neotropical forests, and how this human occupation might affect biodiversity. There have been many recent applications of remote sensing to the detection of Pre-Columbian human infrastructure, from visual inspection of aerial photographs over deforested sites to uses of LiDAR on airborne and UAV platforms to detect infrastructure and smaller settlements under the canopy. Similar efforts are yet to be conducted for the Post-Columbian period, especially during the colonization and imperialism periods. Finally, our knowledge of human impacts in the modern era (20th and 21st centuries) is not-surprisingly more extensive. Remote sensing is still under-used and extremely useful for this type of application, and new missions might provide solutions that were unavailable before. Yet systematic ground surveys are irreplaceable, and detection accuracies of human presence from the combination of remote sensing and ground surveys need to be improved. It is vital therefore to understand how Neotropical forest biodiversity has developed in the presence of people in the past, the implications of this for predicting future directions of change in the Amazon and elsewhere.

ACS Style

Maria J. Santos; Mathias Disney; Jérôme Chave. Detecting Human Presence and Influence on Neotropical Forests with Remote Sensing. Remote Sensing 2018, 10, 1593 .

AMA Style

Maria J. Santos, Mathias Disney, Jérôme Chave. Detecting Human Presence and Influence on Neotropical Forests with Remote Sensing. Remote Sensing. 2018; 10 (10):1593.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Maria J. Santos; Mathias Disney; Jérôme Chave. 2018. "Detecting Human Presence and Influence on Neotropical Forests with Remote Sensing." Remote Sensing 10, no. 10: 1593.