This page has only limited features, please log in for full access.
Scientists who want to know future climate can use multimodel ensemble (MME) methods that combine projections from individual simulation models. To predict the future changes of extreme rainfall in Iran, we examined the observations and 24 models of the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) over the Middle East. We applied generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to series of annual maximum daily precipitation (AMP1) data obtained from both of models and the observations. We also employed multivariate bias-correction under three shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios (namely, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). We used a model averaging method that takes both performance and independence of model into account, which is called PI-weighting. Return levels for 20 and 50 years, as well as the return periods of the AMP1 relative to the reference years (1971–2014), were estimated for three future periods. These are period 1 (2021–2050), period 2 (2046–2075), and period 3 (2071–2100). From this study, we predict that over Iran the relative increases of 20-year return level of the AMP1 in the spatial median from the past observations to the year 2100 will be approximately 15.6% in the SSP2-4.5, 23.2% in the SSP3-7.0, and 28.7% in the SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. We also realized that a 1-in-20 year (or 1-in-50 year) AMP1 observed in the reference years in Iran will likely become a 1-in-12 (1-in-26) year, a 1-in-10 (1-in-22) year, and a 1-in-9 (1-in-20) year event by 2100 under the SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. We project that heavy rainfall will be more prominent in the western and southwestern parts of Iran.
Juyoung Hong; Khadijeh Javan; Yonggwan Shin; Jeong-Soo Park. Future Projections and Uncertainty Assessment of Precipitation Extremes in Iran from the CMIP6 Ensemble. Atmosphere 2021, 12, 1052 .
AMA StyleJuyoung Hong, Khadijeh Javan, Yonggwan Shin, Jeong-Soo Park. Future Projections and Uncertainty Assessment of Precipitation Extremes in Iran from the CMIP6 Ensemble. Atmosphere. 2021; 12 (8):1052.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJuyoung Hong; Khadijeh Javan; Yonggwan Shin; Jeong-Soo Park. 2021. "Future Projections and Uncertainty Assessment of Precipitation Extremes in Iran from the CMIP6 Ensemble." Atmosphere 12, no. 8: 1052.
Drought is recognized as a natural hazard and environmental disaster, and has caused extensive impact worldwide. The increasing frequency and severity of droughts associated with global climate change is an important issue in agriculture and water resources. Given the critical situation of water resources in the Lake Urmia Basin, predicting drought characteristics in future periods is very important in this basin. In this study, to evaluate the future drought and wet spells in Lake Urmia Basin, the daily outputs of the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) model under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios were projected and downscaled using the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) model for two periods, 2031–2050 and 2051–2070. Subsequently, the drought status and its trends in the baseline period (1986–2005) and future periods were investigated using precipitation data and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Then, the drought and wet spell characteristics including occurrence, persistence and the stationary probability of each class were calculated using the Markov chain model. The results showed that the probability of droughts in the stations of Lake Urmia Basin increased in the future. Also, by increasing SPI timescales, drought persistence increased under all three scenarios. On the other hand, by increasing the SPI timescales, the intensity of droughts and wet spells decreased, while their persistence increased.
S. Davarpanah; M. Erfanian; Kh. Javan. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Drought and Wet Spells in Lake Urmia Basin. Pure and Applied Geophysics 2021, 178, 545 -563.
AMA StyleS. Davarpanah, M. Erfanian, Kh. Javan. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Drought and Wet Spells in Lake Urmia Basin. Pure and Applied Geophysics. 2021; 178 (2):545-563.
Chicago/Turabian StyleS. Davarpanah; M. Erfanian; Kh. Javan. 2021. "Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Drought and Wet Spells in Lake Urmia Basin." Pure and Applied Geophysics 178, no. 2: 545-563.
In Iran, one of the environmental issues is dust storms, especially in the west and the southwest. These storms are important factors in soil erosion, economic damage to industry, agriculture, transportation sectors, and human life. Therefore, the recognition of the frequency, occurrence probability, and the return period of these storms can be instrumental in reducing damages. The purpose of this study was the spatial analysis of the occurrence probability of dusty days in the west and southwest of Iran in April, May, June, and July, using the Markov chain. The daily dust data was used in 14 synoptic stations during 24 years (1990–2013). In this study, to detect dust storms, a horizontal visibility factor of ≤ 1000 m was used for all meteorological codes. At first, the days were divided into two groups of normal days and dusty days and then the frequency of matrices, probability of transmission, and the stable matrix were calculated. Finally, the spatial distribution of the occurrence probability and the return period of the dust within 2 to 5 days were depicted. The results showed that the average occurrence probability of 2-day dusts was 15% in April and May, 22% in June, and 24% in July. Also, the occurrence probability of 3-day dusts decreased to 4%, 8%, and 9%, respectively. The return period of 1-day dust in all stations of the area and all months was 1.25 day on average; however, due to the increase in the duration of the dust period, its return period increased exponentially. Spatial distribution of stable matrix also revealed that the occurrence probability of dust in the western and southeastern parts of the studied area was more than those of the others.
Khadijeh Javan; Maryam Teimouri. Spatial analysis of occurrence probability of dusty days in west and southwest of Iran. Arabian Journal of Geosciences 2019, 12, 1 -13.
AMA StyleKhadijeh Javan, Maryam Teimouri. Spatial analysis of occurrence probability of dusty days in west and southwest of Iran. Arabian Journal of Geosciences. 2019; 12 (15):1-13.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKhadijeh Javan; Maryam Teimouri. 2019. "Spatial analysis of occurrence probability of dusty days in west and southwest of Iran." Arabian Journal of Geosciences 12, no. 15: 1-13.
Mohammadreza Azizzadeh; Khadijeh Javan. ANALYZING TRENDS IN REFERENCE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN NORTHWEST PART OF IRAN. Journal of Ecological Engineering 2015, 16, 1 -12.
AMA StyleMohammadreza Azizzadeh, Khadijeh Javan. ANALYZING TRENDS IN REFERENCE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN NORTHWEST PART OF IRAN. Journal of Ecological Engineering. 2015; 16 ():1-12.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMohammadreza Azizzadeh; Khadijeh Javan. 2015. "ANALYZING TRENDS IN REFERENCE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN NORTHWEST PART OF IRAN." Journal of Ecological Engineering 16, no. : 1-12.