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Social and hydrological dynamics are coupled, nonlinear, and complex. To clarify and enhance our understanding of such dynamics, we developed a stylized model that combines hydrological and social dynamics of a generic coupled human–water system. In this model, neither too much (flood) nor too little water (drought) is desirable, and the population self-organizes to respond to relative benefits they derive from the water system and outside opportunities. Despite its simplicity, the model yields seven different regimes, governed by hydrological and socioeconomic factors. As external drivers change, the conditions giving rise to these regimes shift, and with them, social consequences such as migration patterns. Clear understanding of such regime boundaries (thresholds) derived from this simple model contributes to insights on how one might cope with a complex socio-hydrological system under change.
Mehran Homayounfar; Rachata Muneepeerakul. On coupled dynamics and regime shifts in coupled human–water systems. Hydrological Sciences Journal 2021, 66, 769 -776.
AMA StyleMehran Homayounfar, Rachata Muneepeerakul. On coupled dynamics and regime shifts in coupled human–water systems. Hydrological Sciences Journal. 2021; 66 (5):769-776.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMehran Homayounfar; Rachata Muneepeerakul. 2021. "On coupled dynamics and regime shifts in coupled human–water systems." Hydrological Sciences Journal 66, no. 5: 769-776.
Water-subsidized systems are growing in number and maintaining the sustainability of such complex systems presents unique challenges. Interbasin water transfer creates new sociohydrological dynamics that come with tradeoffs and potential regime shifts. The Tempisque-Bebedero watershed in Northwest Costa Rica typifies this class of watershed: Transferred water is used for power generation and irrigated agriculture with significant downstream environmental impacts. To improve and clarify our understanding of the effects of social and biophysical factors on the resilience of such systems, a stylized dynamical systems model was developed, using as a guide the situation in the Tempisque-Bebedero watershed. This model was analyzed to understand the nature of socio-hydrologic regimes that exist in this class of basins and what factors determine these regimes. The model analysis revealed five distinct regimes and different regime shift behaviors dependent on environmental and policy conditions. This work offers insights into other complex socio-hydrologic systems with similar processes.
Kathleen Vazquez; Rachata Muneepeerakul. Modeling Resilience and Sustainability of Water-Subsidized Systems: An Example from Northwest Costa Rica. Sustainability 2021, 13, 2013 .
AMA StyleKathleen Vazquez, Rachata Muneepeerakul. Modeling Resilience and Sustainability of Water-Subsidized Systems: An Example from Northwest Costa Rica. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (4):2013.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKathleen Vazquez; Rachata Muneepeerakul. 2021. "Modeling Resilience and Sustainability of Water-Subsidized Systems: An Example from Northwest Costa Rica." Sustainability 13, no. 4: 2013.
To clarify the nonlinear and intertwined dynamics in coupled human-water systems, we developed a stylized model that combines simple hydrological and social dynamics. In this model, neither too much nor too little water is good (think floods and droughts, respectively; this is a feature absent in previous models) and the population self-organizes to respond to relative benefits they derive from the water system and outside opportunities. Despite its simplicity, the model richly yields 6 different regimes. A closer look at the conditions giving rise to these different regimes sheds light on the design of policies and adaptation strategies for the coupled human-water system under different social-hydrological settings. Advantages and limitations of this modeling approach will also be discussed.
Rachata Muneepeerakul; Mehran Homayounfar. On coupled dynamics and regime shifts in coupled human-water systems. 2020, 1 .
AMA StyleRachata Muneepeerakul, Mehran Homayounfar. On coupled dynamics and regime shifts in coupled human-water systems. . 2020; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRachata Muneepeerakul; Mehran Homayounfar. 2020. "On coupled dynamics and regime shifts in coupled human-water systems." , no. : 1.
Migration is a complex and interdisciplinary problem involving multiple factors such as social interactions, resource scarcity, and geographical features. These factors must be incorporated in migration models, but how? We feel that the issue how different factors should be incorporated is not carefully addressed in existing models. Configuring factors in ways that are theoretically unsound can lead to false migration patterns and undermine the usefulness of models; indeed, factor configurations may be more critical than the factors themselves or other inputs. Therefore, we ask: i) How important is factor configuration to output results comparing with other inputs?; ii) How do different factor configurations produce different migration patterns?; and iii) How can multimodality of certain output distributions be controlled in a management perspective? To address the questions, we develop a “toy” migration agent-based model (ABM) and explore three possible configurations between two factors: i) two factors are perfectly substitutable (ADD), ii) both factors are indispensable (AND), and iii) either is enough (OR). ABM results are analyzed by global sensitivity analysis (GSA) and Monte-Carlo Filtering (MCF). The relative importance of factor configurations quantified by GSA emphasizes why we need to consider how the factors are incorporated. Depending on factor configurations, we also observe unimodal or multimodal output distributions. MCF is then applied to the ABM-GSA results to address how policymakers should control certain inputs to sustain systems with desirable outputs. Altogether, we have integrated ABM, GSA, and MCF to disentangle complexity of migration models and better understand underlying mechanisms and patterns of migration.
Woi Sok OhiD; Rachata Muneepeerakul; Rafael Munoz-CarpenaiD; Alvaro Carmona CabreroiD. Exploring effects of factor configurations in a “toy” migration agent-based model. 2020, 1 .
AMA StyleWoi Sok OhiD, Rachata Muneepeerakul, Rafael Munoz-CarpenaiD, Alvaro Carmona CabreroiD. Exploring effects of factor configurations in a “toy” migration agent-based model. . 2020; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleWoi Sok OhiD; Rachata Muneepeerakul; Rafael Munoz-CarpenaiD; Alvaro Carmona CabreroiD. 2020. "Exploring effects of factor configurations in a “toy” migration agent-based model." , no. : 1.
Many resource management studies focus on one resource. Humans, however, rely on multiple resources in a complicated way. A person may derive more well-being from one unit of a resource than from another; one resource may be substituted by another to some degree. How should one manage such coupled natural-human systems? In this work, we build on recent research that focuses on developing conceptual frameworks and mathematical models to understand such interactions. The multiple resource condition injects the concept of substitutability into models of coupled human-natural systems and affects how such systems should be governed. Substitutability has been mostly mentioned in the field of economics for a substitution of natural and human capitals. Similarly, one resource may substitute for other scarce resources in coupled human-natural systems since some of these resources are not completely independent. In this study, we revise and expand an existing conceptual framework to include two natural resources, resource users, governing agency and public infrastructure in a centralized governance structure, i.e., all the natural resources are managed by the same governing entity. We then devise a set of dynamical equations and relationships from different fields, such as a replicator equation, a population equation, and a CES production equation, to capture the dynamics of this coupled system. This analysis can provide a decision-support tool to design policies to sustainably govern the built environment where human, natural resources, and infrastructure are interconnected. Model analysis takes a multi-faceted perspective of both resource users and governing entities to assess policies against different levels of disturbance. The results reveal how substitutability and asymmetry in resource use affect the viable policies needed to maintain the system.
Woi Sok Oh; Rachata Muneepeerakul. Effects of substitutability and asymmetry on natural resource management with centralized governance structure. 2019, 1 .
AMA StyleWoi Sok Oh, Rachata Muneepeerakul. Effects of substitutability and asymmetry on natural resource management with centralized governance structure. . 2019; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleWoi Sok Oh; Rachata Muneepeerakul. 2019. "Effects of substitutability and asymmetry on natural resource management with centralized governance structure." , no. : 1.
Biodiversity patterns are governed by landscape structure and dispersal strategies of residing organisms. Landscape, however, changes, and dispersal strategies evolve with it. It is unclear how these biological and geomorphological changes interplay to affect biodiversity patterns. Here we develop metacommunity models that allow for dispersal evolution and implement them in river networks with different structures, mimicking the geomorphological dynamics of fluvial landscape. For a given dispersal kernel, a more compact network structure, where local communities are closer to one another, results in biodiversity patterns characteristic of a more well-mixed environment. When dispersal evolution is present, however, organisms adopt more local dispersal strategies in a more compact network, counteracting the effects of the more well-mixed environment. The combined effects lead to biodiversity patterns different from when dispersal evolution is absent. These findings underscore the importance of taking the interplay between the evolution of dispersal, landscape, and biodiversity patterns into account when studying and managing biodiversity in changing landscape.
Rachata Muneepeerakul; Enrico Bertuzzo; Andrea Rinaldo; Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe. Evolving biodiversity patterns in changing river networks. Journal of Theoretical Biology 2018, 462, 418 -424.
AMA StyleRachata Muneepeerakul, Enrico Bertuzzo, Andrea Rinaldo, Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe. Evolving biodiversity patterns in changing river networks. Journal of Theoretical Biology. 2018; 462 ():418-424.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRachata Muneepeerakul; Enrico Bertuzzo; Andrea Rinaldo; Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe. 2018. "Evolving biodiversity patterns in changing river networks." Journal of Theoretical Biology 462, no. : 418-424.
Robustness and resilience are concepts in systems thinking that have grown in importance and popularity. For many complex social-ecological systems, however, robustness and resilience are difficult to quantify and the connections and trade-offs between them difficult to study. Most studies have either focused on qualitative approaches to discuss their connections or considered only one of them under particular classes of disturbances. In this study, we present an analytical framework to address the linkage between robustness and resilience more systematically. Our analysis is based on a stylized dynamical model that operationalizes a widely used conceptual framework for social-ecological systems. The model enables us to rigorously delineate the boundaries of conditions under which the coupled system can be sustained in a long run, define robustness and resilience related to these boundaries, and consequently investigate their connections. The results reveal the trade-offs between robustness and resilience. They also show how the nature of such trade-offs varies with the choice of certain policies (e.g., taxation and investment in public infrastructure), internal stresses, and uncertainty in social-ecological settings.
Mehran Homayounfar; Rachata Muneepeerakul; John M. Anderies; Chitsomanus P. Muneepeerakul. Linking resilience and robustness and uncovering their trade-offs in coupled infrastructure systems. Earth System Dynamics 2018, 9, 1159 -1168.
AMA StyleMehran Homayounfar, Rachata Muneepeerakul, John M. Anderies, Chitsomanus P. Muneepeerakul. Linking resilience and robustness and uncovering their trade-offs in coupled infrastructure systems. Earth System Dynamics. 2018; 9 (4):1159-1168.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMehran Homayounfar; Rachata Muneepeerakul; John M. Anderies; Chitsomanus P. Muneepeerakul. 2018. "Linking resilience and robustness and uncovering their trade-offs in coupled infrastructure systems." Earth System Dynamics 9, no. 4: 1159-1168.
Robustness and resilience are concepts in systems thinking that have grown in importance and popularity. For many complex social-ecological systems, however, robustness and resilience are difficult to quantify and the connections and trade-offs between them difficult to study. Most studies have either focused on qualitative approaches to discuss their connections or considered only one of them under particular classes of disturbances. In this study, we present an analytical framework to address the linkage between robustness and resilience more systematically. Our analysis is based on a stylized dynamical model that operationalizes a widely used conceptual framework for social-ecological systems. The model enables us to rigorously delineate the boundaries of conditions under which the coupled system can be sustained in a long run, define robustness and resilience related to these boundaries, and consequently investigate their connections. The results reveal the tradeoffs between robustness and resilience. They also show how the nature of such tradeoffs varies with the choices of certain policies (e.g., taxation and investment in public infrastructure), internal stresses and external disturbances.
Mehran Homayounfar; Rachata Muneepeerakul; John M. Anderies. How Robust is Your System Resilience? 2018, 2018, 1 -13.
AMA StyleMehran Homayounfar, Rachata Muneepeerakul, John M. Anderies. How Robust is Your System Resilience? . 2018; 2018 ():1-13.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMehran Homayounfar; Rachata Muneepeerakul; John M. Anderies. 2018. "How Robust is Your System Resilience?" 2018, no. : 1-13.
Rachata Muneepeerakul. Re-defining robustness and adding an author. 2018, 1 .
AMA StyleRachata Muneepeerakul. Re-defining robustness and adding an author. . 2018; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRachata Muneepeerakul. 2018. "Re-defining robustness and adding an author." , no. : 1.
With minimal moral hazard and adverse selection, weather index insurance promises financial resilience to farmers struck by harsh weather conditions through swift compensation at affordable premium. Despite these advantages, the very nature of indexing gives rise to production basis risk as the selected weather indexes do not sufficiently correspond to actual damages. To address this problem, we develop a stochastic yield model, built upon a stochastic soil moisture model driven by marked Poisson rainfall. Our analysis shows that even under similar temperature and rainfall amount, yields can differ significantly; this was empirically supported by a two-year field experiment in which rain-fed maize was grown under very similar total rainfall amounts. Here, the year with more intense, less frequent rainfall produces a better yield—a rare counter evidence to most climate change projections. Through a stochastic yield model, we demonstrate the crucial roles of rainfall intensity and frequency in determining the yield. Importantly, the model allows us to compute rainfall pattern-related basis risk inherent in cumulative rain index insurance. The model results and a case study herein clearly show that total rainfall is a poor indicator of yield, imposing unnecessary production basis risk on farmers and false-positive payouts on insurers. Incorporating rainfall intensity and frequency in the design of rain index insurance can offer farmers better protection, while maintaining the attractive features of the weather index insurance and thus fulfilling its promise of financial resilience.
Chitsomanus P. Muneepeerakul; Rachata Muneepeerakul; Ray G. Huffaker. Rainfall Intensity and Frequency Explain Production Basis Risk in Cumulative Rain Index Insurance. Earth's Future 2017, 5, 1267 -1277.
AMA StyleChitsomanus P. Muneepeerakul, Rachata Muneepeerakul, Ray G. Huffaker. Rainfall Intensity and Frequency Explain Production Basis Risk in Cumulative Rain Index Insurance. Earth's Future. 2017; 5 (12):1267-1277.
Chicago/Turabian StyleChitsomanus P. Muneepeerakul; Rachata Muneepeerakul; Ray G. Huffaker. 2017. "Rainfall Intensity and Frequency Explain Production Basis Risk in Cumulative Rain Index Insurance." Earth's Future 5, no. 12: 1267-1277.
The resource management and environmental policy literature focuses on devising regulations and incentive structures to achieve desirable goals. It often presumes the existence of public infrastructure that actualizes these incentives and regulations through a process loosely referred to as ‘governance.’ In many cases, it is not clear if and how such governance infrastructure can be created and supported. Here, we take a complex systems view in which ‘governance’ is an emergent phenomenon generated by interactions between social, economic, and environmental (both built and natural) factors. We present a framework and formal stylized model to explore under what circumstances stable governance structures may emerge endogenously in coupled infrastructure systems comprising shared natural, social, and built infrastructures of which social-ecological systems are specific examples. The model allows us to derive general conditions for a sustainable coupled infrastructure system in which critical infrastructure (e.g., canals) is provided by a governing entity that enables resource users (e.g., farmers) to produce outputs from natural infrastructure (e.g., water) to meet their needs while supporting the governing entity. To understand how successful and robust governance may arise in coupled infrastructure systems comprising shared natural, social, and built infrastructure, we develop a stylized model based on a widely used conceptual framework that focuses on robustness of social-ecological systems. Analysis of the model results in conditions for sustainability of such systems that are expressed as clear relationships between biophysical and social factors. The results lay groundwork for more rigorous studies of robustness and resilience of these complex systems.
Rachata Muneepeerakul; John M. Anderies. Strategic behaviors and governance challenges in social‐ecological systems. Earth's Future 2017, 5, 865 -876.
AMA StyleRachata Muneepeerakul, John M. Anderies. Strategic behaviors and governance challenges in social‐ecological systems. Earth's Future. 2017; 5 (8):865-876.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRachata Muneepeerakul; John M. Anderies. 2017. "Strategic behaviors and governance challenges in social‐ecological systems." Earth's Future 5, no. 8: 865-876.