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Climate studies have suggested that inland stream temperatures and average streamflows will increase over the next century in New England, thereby putting aquatic species sustained by coldwater habitats at risk. This study uses the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate historical streamflow and stream temperatures within three forested, baseflow-driven watersheds in Rhode Island, USA followed by simulations of future climate scenarios for comparison. Low greenhouse gas emission scenarios are based on the 2007 International Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B1 scenario and the high emissions are based on the SRES A1fi scenario. The output data are analyzed to identify daily occurrences where brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) are exposed to stressful events, defined herein as any day where Q25 or Q75 flows occur simultaneously with stream temperatures exceeding 21 °C. Results indicate that under both high- and low-emission greenhouse gas scenarios, coldwater fish species such as brook trout will be increasingly exposed to stressful events. The percent chance of stressful event occurrence increased by an average of 6.5% under low-emission scenarios and by 14.2% under high-emission scenarios relative to the historical simulations.
Britta M. Chambers; Soni M. Pradhanang; Arthur J. Gold. Simulating Climate Change Induced Thermal Stress in Coldwater Fish Habitat Using SWAT Model. Water 2017, 9, 732 .
AMA StyleBritta M. Chambers, Soni M. Pradhanang, Arthur J. Gold. Simulating Climate Change Induced Thermal Stress in Coldwater Fish Habitat Using SWAT Model. Water. 2017; 9 (10):732.
Chicago/Turabian StyleBritta M. Chambers; Soni M. Pradhanang; Arthur J. Gold. 2017. "Simulating Climate Change Induced Thermal Stress in Coldwater Fish Habitat Using SWAT Model." Water 9, no. 10: 732.
It has become increasingly important to recognize historical water quality trends so that the future impacts of climate change may be better understood. Climate studies have suggested that inland stream temperatures and average streamflow will increase over the next century in New England, thereby putting aquatic species sustained by coldwater habitats at risk. In this study we evaluated two different approaches for modeling historical streamflow and stream temperature in a Rhode Island, USA, watershed with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), using (i) original SWAT and (ii) SWAT plus a hydroclimatological model component that considers both hydrological inputs and air temperature. Based on daily calibration results with six years of measured streamflow and four years of stream temperature data, we examined occurrences of stressful conditions for brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) using the hydroclimatological model. SWAT with the hydroclimatological component improved modestly during calibration (NSE of 0.93, R2 of 0.95) compared to the original SWAT (NSE of 0.83, R2 of 0.93). Between 1980–2009, the number of stressful events, a moment in time where high or low flows occur simultaneously with stream temperatures exceeding 21 °C, increased by 55% and average streamflow increased by 60%. This study supports using the hydroclimatological SWAT component and provides an example method for assessing stressful conditions in southern New England’s coldwater habitats.
Britta Chambers; Soni M. Pradhanang; Arthur J. Gold. Assessing Thermally Stressful Events in a Rhode Island Coldwater Fish Habitat Using the SWAT Model. Water 2017, 9, 667 .
AMA StyleBritta Chambers, Soni M. Pradhanang, Arthur J. Gold. Assessing Thermally Stressful Events in a Rhode Island Coldwater Fish Habitat Using the SWAT Model. Water. 2017; 9 (9):667.
Chicago/Turabian StyleBritta Chambers; Soni M. Pradhanang; Arthur J. Gold. 2017. "Assessing Thermally Stressful Events in a Rhode Island Coldwater Fish Habitat Using the SWAT Model." Water 9, no. 9: 667.