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A. Holzkämper
Agroscope, Department Agroecology and Environment, Climate and Agriculture Group, Reckenholzstr. 191, 8046 Zurich, Switzerland

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Journal article
Published: 07 July 2021 in Science of The Total Environment
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Climate change affects both water resources and agricultural production. With rising temperatures and decreasing summer precipitation, it is expected that agricultural production will be increasingly limited by drought. Where surface- or groundwater resources are available for irrigation, an increase in water withdrawals for irrigation is to be expected. Therefore, quantitative approaches are required to anticipate and manage the expected conflicts related to increased water abstraction for irrigation. This project aims to investigate how agricultural production, water demand for irrigation, runoff and groundwater dynamics are affected by future climate change and how climate change impacts combined with changes in agricultural water use affect groundwater dynamics. To answer these research questions, a comprehensive, loosely coupled model approach was developed, combining models from three disciplines: an agricultural plant growth model, a hydrological model and a hydrogeological model. The model coupling was implemented and tested for an agricultural area located in Switzerland in which groundwater plays a significant role in providing irrigation water. Our suggested modelling approach can be easily adapted to other areas. The model results show that yield changes are driven by drought limitations and rising temperatures. However, an increase in yield may be realized with an increase in irrigation. Simulation results show that the water requirement for irrigation without climate protection (RCP8.5) could increase by 40% by the end of the century with an unchanged growing season and by up to 80% with varietal adaptations. With climate change mitigation (RCP2.6) the increase in water demand for irrigation would be limited to 7%. The increase in irrigation (+12 mm) and the summer decrease in recharge rates (~20 mm/month) with decreasing summer precipitation causes a lowering of groundwater levels (40 mm) in the area in the late summer and autumn. This impact may be accentuated by an intensification of irrigation and reduced by extensification.

ACS Style

F. Cochand; P. Brunner; D. Hunkeler; O. Rössler; A. Holzkämper. Cross-sphere modelling to evaluate impacts of climate and land management changes on groundwater resources. Science of The Total Environment 2021, 798, 148759 .

AMA Style

F. Cochand, P. Brunner, D. Hunkeler, O. Rössler, A. Holzkämper. Cross-sphere modelling to evaluate impacts of climate and land management changes on groundwater resources. Science of The Total Environment. 2021; 798 ():148759.

Chicago/Turabian Style

F. Cochand; P. Brunner; D. Hunkeler; O. Rössler; A. Holzkämper. 2021. "Cross-sphere modelling to evaluate impacts of climate and land management changes on groundwater resources." Science of The Total Environment 798, no. : 148759.

Journal article
Published: 28 April 2020 in Agricultural Water Management
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Climate change is altering agricultural production conditions. Adaptation measures to reduce negative impacts of climate change and utilize emerging potentials may involve the increased use of irrigation water. With increased irrigation water consumption, water use conflicts and resource constraints may occur and aggravate under climate change. Estimates of expected changes in irrigation water demands are of great value to anticipate if and where such issues may arise. This study presents an analysis of projected changes in irrigation water demand and grain yield of maize subject to variation in cultivar choice, sowing dates, soil depth and texture, as well as climate projection uncertainty and crop model parameterization uncertainty. Study results suggest that varietal choice opens up a large scope for adaptation of future grain maize productivity with important implications for agricultural water use. Assuming that no mitigation measures are taken (RCP8.5), the cultivation of late-maturing varieties in combination with earlier sowing can be considered a suitable adaptation choice, even allowing for increasing yield levels until mid-century. However, with this adaptation choice, irrigation water demands could be expected to increase by up to 40% until the end of the century. While absolute estimates of irrigation water demands are strongly dependent on soil depth (and to a much smaller degree on soil texture), change signals of irrigation water demands were largely unaffected by variation in soil parameters. However, estimates of future changes in irrigation water demands are subject to large uncertainties originating from climate projection uncertainties, implying possible increases in irrigation water demands between 60%. Increases in irrigation water demands could be constrained by cultivating early-maturing varieties at the expense of lower production potentials. Selection and breeding efforts steered towards early varieties with extended grain filling duration may help to increase yield potentials.

ACS Style

Annelie Holzkämper. Varietal adaptations matter for agricultural water use – a simulation study on grain maize in Western Switzerland. Agricultural Water Management 2020, 237, 106202 .

AMA Style

Annelie Holzkämper. Varietal adaptations matter for agricultural water use – a simulation study on grain maize in Western Switzerland. Agricultural Water Management. 2020; 237 ():106202.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Annelie Holzkämper. 2020. "Varietal adaptations matter for agricultural water use – a simulation study on grain maize in Western Switzerland." Agricultural Water Management 237, no. : 106202.

Journal article
Published: 27 November 2019 in Land Use Policy
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The concepts of Land Sharing (LSH) and Land Sparing (LSP) shall help to manage trade-offs between land use and biodiversity conservation but applications in real world contexts are scarce. We review the literature on scenario and stakeholder processes and present a participatory approach to translate the LSH/LSP concept into practice. It is based on a scenario definition process harmonized across five case studies in Europe and resulted in semi-quantitative participative LSH and LSP scenarios. Harmonization eases comparability among case studies despite fundamentally different scenarios due to heterogeneous conditions across the regions. A key challenge was the right level of standardization for the scenario process to reach a common understanding across case study regions while acknowledging regional peculiarities. The resulting scenarios support for regional specific planning recommendations and can be input to quantitative ecosystem service and biodiversity models.

ACS Style

N. Hagemann; E.H. van der Zanden; Barbara Anna Willaarts; A. Holzkämper; Martin Volk; C. Rutz; Joerg Priess; M. Schönhart. Bringing the sharing-sparing debate down to the ground—Lessons learnt for participatory scenario development. Land Use Policy 2019, 91, 104262 .

AMA Style

N. Hagemann, E.H. van der Zanden, Barbara Anna Willaarts, A. Holzkämper, Martin Volk, C. Rutz, Joerg Priess, M. Schönhart. Bringing the sharing-sparing debate down to the ground—Lessons learnt for participatory scenario development. Land Use Policy. 2019; 91 ():104262.

Chicago/Turabian Style

N. Hagemann; E.H. van der Zanden; Barbara Anna Willaarts; A. Holzkämper; Martin Volk; C. Rutz; Joerg Priess; M. Schönhart. 2019. "Bringing the sharing-sparing debate down to the ground—Lessons learnt for participatory scenario development." Land Use Policy 91, no. : 104262.

Journal article
Published: 23 October 2018 in Sustainability
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In agroecosystem management, conflicts between various services such as food provision and nutrient regulation are common. This study examined the trade-offs between selected ecosystem services such as food provision, water quantity and quality, erosion and climate regulations in an agricultural catchment in Western Switzerland. The aim was to explore the existing land use conflicts by a shift in land use and management strategy following two stakeholder-defined scenarios based on either land sparing or land sharing concepts. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to build an agro-hydrologic model of the region, which was calibrated and validated based on daily river discharge, monthly nitrate and annual crop yield, considering uncertainties associated with land management set up and model parameterization. The results show that land sparing scenario has the highest agricultural benefit, while also the highest nitrate concentration and GHG emissions. The land sharing scenario improves water quality and climate regulation services and reduces food provision. The management changes considered in the two land use scenarios did not seem to reduce the conflict but only led to a shift in trade-offs. Water quantity and erosion regulation remain unaffected by the two scenarios.

ACS Style

Nina Zarrineh; Karim Abbaspour; Ann Van Griensven; Bernard Jeangros; Annelie Holzkämper. Model-Based Evaluation of Land Management Strategies with Regard to Multiple Ecosystem Services. Sustainability 2018, 10, 3844 .

AMA Style

Nina Zarrineh, Karim Abbaspour, Ann Van Griensven, Bernard Jeangros, Annelie Holzkämper. Model-Based Evaluation of Land Management Strategies with Regard to Multiple Ecosystem Services. Sustainability. 2018; 10 (11):3844.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Nina Zarrineh; Karim Abbaspour; Ann Van Griensven; Bernard Jeangros; Annelie Holzkämper. 2018. "Model-Based Evaluation of Land Management Strategies with Regard to Multiple Ecosystem Services." Sustainability 10, no. 11: 3844.

Review
Published: 30 May 2018 in Land Degradation & Development
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Soils are vital for supporting food security and other ecosystem services. Climate change can affect soil functions both directly and indirectly. Direct effects include temperature, precipitation, and moisture regime changes. Indirect effects include those that are induced by adaptations such as irrigation, crop rotation changes, and tillage practices. Although extensive knowledge is available on the direct effects, an understanding of the indirect effects of agricultural adaptation options is less complete. A review of 20 agricultural adaptation case studies across Europe was conducted to assess implications to soil threats and soil functions and the link to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The major findings are as follows: (1) adaptation options reflect local conditions; (2) reduced soil erosion threats and increased soil organic carbon are expected, although compaction may increase in some areas; (3) most adaptation options are anticipated to improve the soil functions of food and biomass production, soil organic carbon storage, and storing, filtering, transforming and recycling capacities, whereas possible implications for soil biodiversity are largely unknown; and (4) the linkage between soil functions and the SDGs implies improvements to SDG 2 (achieving food security and promoting sustainable agriculture) and SDG 13 (taking action on climate change), whereas the relationship to SDG 15 (using terrestrial ecosystems sustainably) is largely unknown. The conclusion is drawn that agricultural adaptation options, even when focused on increasing yields, have the potential to outweigh the negative direct effects of climate change on soil degradation in many European regions.

ACS Style

Ahmad Hamidov; Katharina Helming; Gianni Bellocchi; Waldemar Bojar; Tommy Dalgaard; Bhim Bahadur Ghaley; Christian Hoffmann; Ian Holman; Annelie Holzkämper; Dominika Krzeminska; Sigrun H. Kvaernø; Heikki Lehtonen; Georg Niedrist; Lillian Øygarden; Pytrik Reidsma; Pier Paolo Roggero; Teodor Rusu; Cristina Santos; Giovanna Seddaiu; Eva Skarbøvik; Domenico Ventrella; Jacek Żarski; Martin Schönhart. Impacts of climate change adaptation options on soil functions: A review of European case-studies. Land Degradation & Development 2018, 29, 2378 -2389.

AMA Style

Ahmad Hamidov, Katharina Helming, Gianni Bellocchi, Waldemar Bojar, Tommy Dalgaard, Bhim Bahadur Ghaley, Christian Hoffmann, Ian Holman, Annelie Holzkämper, Dominika Krzeminska, Sigrun H. Kvaernø, Heikki Lehtonen, Georg Niedrist, Lillian Øygarden, Pytrik Reidsma, Pier Paolo Roggero, Teodor Rusu, Cristina Santos, Giovanna Seddaiu, Eva Skarbøvik, Domenico Ventrella, Jacek Żarski, Martin Schönhart. Impacts of climate change adaptation options on soil functions: A review of European case-studies. Land Degradation & Development. 2018; 29 (8):2378-2389.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Ahmad Hamidov; Katharina Helming; Gianni Bellocchi; Waldemar Bojar; Tommy Dalgaard; Bhim Bahadur Ghaley; Christian Hoffmann; Ian Holman; Annelie Holzkämper; Dominika Krzeminska; Sigrun H. Kvaernø; Heikki Lehtonen; Georg Niedrist; Lillian Øygarden; Pytrik Reidsma; Pier Paolo Roggero; Teodor Rusu; Cristina Santos; Giovanna Seddaiu; Eva Skarbøvik; Domenico Ventrella; Jacek Żarski; Martin Schönhart. 2018. "Impacts of climate change adaptation options on soil functions: A review of European case-studies." Land Degradation & Development 29, no. 8: 2378-2389.

Journal article
Published: 01 April 2018 in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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Large scale prediction of the performance of genotypes is fundamental for understanding genotype by environmental interactions (G × E), predicting accurately genotypic performance in specific environments, and increasing our knowledge to develop future crop varieties. We derived environmental limiting factors from daily weather data for critical crop growth phases of wheat (Triticum aestivum), using a winter wheat suitability model. The limiting factors that account for the effects of environmental variables on wheat productivity and phenology were then integrated into a matrix of environmental factors that related environments with observations through a ridge regression-best linear unbiased prediction (RR-BLUP) model. Prediction accuracy following a leave-one-site-out validation scheme was evaluated through correlations between predicted and observed yield for six winter wheat genotypes grown at 8 to 10 sites during three years. Accuracy (r = 0.01–0.75) was within the range of values reported in other studies. High prediction accuracies for certain sites and genotypes showed that the use of environmental limiting factors derived from gridded weather data into a RR-BLUP framework is a promising approach to predict genotypic performance in large areas. In contrast, the environmental and crop data collected in the variety trials and how these trials covered the territory limited the accuracy of predictions.

ACS Style

Juan M. Herrera; Lilia Levy Häner; Annelie Holzkämper; Didier Pellet. Evaluation of ridge regression for country-wide prediction of genotype-specific grain yields of wheat. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 2018, 252, 1 -9.

AMA Style

Juan M. Herrera, Lilia Levy Häner, Annelie Holzkämper, Didier Pellet. Evaluation of ridge regression for country-wide prediction of genotype-specific grain yields of wheat. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 2018; 252 ():1-9.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Juan M. Herrera; Lilia Levy Häner; Annelie Holzkämper; Didier Pellet. 2018. "Evaluation of ridge regression for country-wide prediction of genotype-specific grain yields of wheat." Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 252, no. : 1-9.

Original paper
Published: 24 January 2018 in International Journal of Biometeorology
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Late spring frost is a severe risk during early plant development. It may cause important economic damage to grapevine production. In a warming climate, late frost risk either could decline due to the reduction in frost days and an advancement of the last day of frost or increase due to a more pronounced shift forward of the start of the active growing period of the plants. These possibilities were analyzed in a case study for two locations in the lower Swiss Rhone Valley (Sion, Aigle) where viticulture is an important part of agriculture. Twelve phenology models were calibrated for the developmental stage BBCH09 (bud burst) using measured or reconstructed temperature data for two vineyards in Changins (1958 to 2012) and Leytron (1977 to 2014) together with observed phenological data. The day of year (DOY) for BBCH09 was then modelled for the years 1951 to 2050 using the best performing phenology model in combination with ten downscaled and bias-corrected climate scenarios. A 100-day period starting with BBCH09 was defined, during which daily mean and minimum temperatures were used to calculate three frost risk indices in each year. These indices were compared between the periods 1961-1990 (reference) and 2021-2050 (climate change scenario). Based on the average of the ensemble of climate model chains, BBCH09 advanced by 9 (range 7-11) (Aigle) and 7 (range 5-8) (Sion) days between the two time periods, similar to the shift in the last day of frost. The separate results of the different model chains suggest that, in the near future, late spring frost risk may increase or decrease, depending on location and climate change projections. While for the reference, the risk is larger at the warmer site (Sion) compared to that at the cooler site (Aigle), for the period 2021-2050, small shifts in both phenology and occurrence of frost (i.e., days with daily minimum temperature below 0 °C) lead to a small decrease in frost risk at the warmer but an increase at the cooler site. However, considerable uncertainties remain that are mostly related to climate model chains. Consequently, shifts in frost risk remain uncertain for the time period considered and the two study locations.

ACS Style

Michael Meier; Jürg Fuhrer; Annelie Holzkämper. Changing risk of spring frost damage in grapevines due to climate change? A case study in the Swiss Rhone Valley. International Journal of Biometeorology 2018, 62, 991 -1002.

AMA Style

Michael Meier, Jürg Fuhrer, Annelie Holzkämper. Changing risk of spring frost damage in grapevines due to climate change? A case study in the Swiss Rhone Valley. International Journal of Biometeorology. 2018; 62 (6):991-1002.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Michael Meier; Jürg Fuhrer; Annelie Holzkämper. 2018. "Changing risk of spring frost damage in grapevines due to climate change? A case study in the Swiss Rhone Valley." International Journal of Biometeorology 62, no. 6: 991-1002.

Review
Published: 11 October 2017 in Agriculture
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Climate change poses a challenge to agricultural production and its impacts vary depending on regional focus and on the type of production system. To avoid production losses and make use of emerging potentials, adaptations in agricultural management will inevitably be required. Adaptation responses can broadly be distinguished into (1) short-term incremental responses that farmers often choose autonomously in response to observed changes and based on local knowledge and experiences, and (2) long-term transformative responses that require strategic planning, and which are usually implemented at a larger spatial scale. Models can be used to support decision making at both response levels; thereby, different features of models prove more or less valuable depending on the type of adaptation response. This paper presents a systematic literature review on the state-of-the-art in modelling for adaptation planning in agricultural production systems, investigating the question of which model types can be distinguished and how these types differ in the way they support decision making in agricultural adaptation planning. Five types of models are distinguished: (1) empirical crop models; (2) regional suitability models; (3) biophysical models; (4) meta-models; and (5) decision models. The potential and limitations of these model types for providing decision-support to short- and long-term adaptation planning are discussed. The risk of maladaptation—adaptation that implies negative consequences either in the long term or in a wider context—is identified as a key challenge of adaptation planning that needs more attention. Maladaptation is not only a risk of decision making in the face of incomplete knowledge of future climate impacts on the agricultural production system; but it can also be a threat if the connectedness of the agroecosystem is not sufficiently acknowledged when management adaptations are implemented. Future research supporting climate change adaptation efforts should thus be based on integrated assessments of risk and vulnerabilities (considering climate variability and uncertainty). To secure adaptation success in the long term, frameworks for monitoring management adaptations and their consequences should be institutionalised.

ACS Style

Annelie Holzkämper. Adapting Agricultural Production Systems to Climate Change—What’s the Use of Models? Agriculture 2017, 7, 86 .

AMA Style

Annelie Holzkämper. Adapting Agricultural Production Systems to Climate Change—What’s the Use of Models? Agriculture. 2017; 7 (10):86.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Annelie Holzkämper. 2017. "Adapting Agricultural Production Systems to Climate Change—What’s the Use of Models?" Agriculture 7, no. 10: 86.

Journal article
Published: 13 May 2014 in Regional Environmental Change
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Climate is a major driver of agricultural production potentials. To make the best use of these potentials, agricultural management should be adjusted to local climatic conditions. As these conditions change over time, understanding climatic limitations and their trends in time and space is essential for the planning of suitable adaptation measures. In this study, we provide a detailed spatio-temporal analysis of climatic yield potentials for grain maize and winter wheat in Switzerland. We find that current climatic suitability for grain maize is mostly limited by sub-optimal temperatures, radiation and water scarcity, while climatic suitability for winter wheat is mostly limited through excess water, insufficient radiation, as well as frost and heat stress. Over the investigated period from 1983 to 2010, few regional trends in climate suitability were identified for the two crops, indicating that grain maize has benefitted slightly from increasing growth temperatures with recent warming (0.5 °C/decade), while winter wheat suitability decreased slightly due to suboptimal radiation/temperature ratios with warming. Despite only small trends in climate suitabilities, which are restricted to particular regions, future climatic changes could lead to more pronounced shifts. The tendencies of climate limitations identified in this study are mostly consistent with findings from other studies, and it can thus be anticipated that maize may continue to benefit from increasing temperatures on the short term, but may also be increasingly limited by water scarcity as summer precipitation decreases. For winter wheat, the relevance of heat stress is likely to increase with increasing temperatures. These results may help to support short-term adaptation planning. However, more detailed analyses of climate projections will be necessary to investigate “critical transitions” and provide more specific information to support long-term climate change adaptation planning (e.g. for irrigation and breeding programmes).

ACS Style

Annelie Holzkämper; Dario Fossati; Jürg Hiltbrunner; Jürg Fuhrer. Spatial and temporal trends in agro-climatic limitations to production potentials for grain maize and winter wheat in Switzerland. Regional Environmental Change 2014, 15, 109 -122.

AMA Style

Annelie Holzkämper, Dario Fossati, Jürg Hiltbrunner, Jürg Fuhrer. Spatial and temporal trends in agro-climatic limitations to production potentials for grain maize and winter wheat in Switzerland. Regional Environmental Change. 2014; 15 (1):109-122.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Annelie Holzkämper; Dario Fossati; Jürg Hiltbrunner; Jürg Fuhrer. 2014. "Spatial and temporal trends in agro-climatic limitations to production potentials for grain maize and winter wheat in Switzerland." Regional Environmental Change 15, no. 1: 109-122.

Chapter
Published: 30 April 2013 in Biodiversität und Klimawandel
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Natürliche Ökosysteme, die organismische Vielfalt, die sie beherbergen, und ihre Leistungen sind von grundlegender Bedeutung für den Menschen.

ACS Style

Franz Essl; Christian Schlatter; Sandra Balzer; Götz Ellwanger; Horst Gruttke; Stefan Nehring; Axel Ssymank; Wolfgang Rabitsch; Jürg Fuhrer; Felix Herzog; Annelie Holzkämper; Brigitte Schuster; Burkhard Schweppe-Kraft; Beate Jessel; Melanie Butterling; Kathrin Ammermann; Klaus Peter Zulka. Handlungsoptionen und -erfordernisse. Biodiversität und Klimawandel 2013, 324 -382.

AMA Style

Franz Essl, Christian Schlatter, Sandra Balzer, Götz Ellwanger, Horst Gruttke, Stefan Nehring, Axel Ssymank, Wolfgang Rabitsch, Jürg Fuhrer, Felix Herzog, Annelie Holzkämper, Brigitte Schuster, Burkhard Schweppe-Kraft, Beate Jessel, Melanie Butterling, Kathrin Ammermann, Klaus Peter Zulka. Handlungsoptionen und -erfordernisse. Biodiversität und Klimawandel. 2013; ():324-382.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Franz Essl; Christian Schlatter; Sandra Balzer; Götz Ellwanger; Horst Gruttke; Stefan Nehring; Axel Ssymank; Wolfgang Rabitsch; Jürg Fuhrer; Felix Herzog; Annelie Holzkämper; Brigitte Schuster; Burkhard Schweppe-Kraft; Beate Jessel; Melanie Butterling; Kathrin Ammermann; Klaus Peter Zulka. 2013. "Handlungsoptionen und -erfordernisse." Biodiversität und Klimawandel , no. : 324-382.

Journal article
Published: 01 September 2012 in Agricultural Systems
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ACS Style

Tommy Klein; Pierluigi Calanca; Annelie Holzkämper; Niklaus Lehmann; Andreas Roesch; Jürg Fuhrer. Using farm accountancy data to calibrate a crop model for climate impact studies. Agricultural Systems 2012, 111, 23 -33.

AMA Style

Tommy Klein, Pierluigi Calanca, Annelie Holzkämper, Niklaus Lehmann, Andreas Roesch, Jürg Fuhrer. Using farm accountancy data to calibrate a crop model for climate impact studies. Agricultural Systems. 2012; 111 ():23-33.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Tommy Klein; Pierluigi Calanca; Annelie Holzkämper; Niklaus Lehmann; Andreas Roesch; Jürg Fuhrer. 2012. "Using farm accountancy data to calibrate a crop model for climate impact studies." Agricultural Systems 111, no. : 23-33.