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Heat stress-related illness attributed to the changing climate, particularly the more frequent extreme high temperatures, is becoming a theme of public concern, especially in the most vulnerable regions, such as the African continent. Knowledge of the existing research directions and gaps on heat stress and human health is vital for informing future strategic research foci capable of influencing policy development, planning, adaptation, and mitigation efforts. In this regard, a bibliometric analysis was conducted, with an emphasis on Africa, to assess regional research contributions to heat stress impacts on human health. The goals of the study were to review publication growth and patterns of the scientific publications and to identify key players (especially collaborating institutions and countries) and the evolution of research themes on the African continent, while paying attention to global trends and emergent hot topics and methodology of heat stress research. Using the Web of Science (WoS) and Scopus core collection databases, a structured keyword search was undertaken, which yielded 463 and 58 research publications from around the world and Africa, respectively. The retrieved scientific documents, published between 1968 and 2020, were analyzed and visualized using a bibliometric analysis technique and the VOSviewer software tool. The results indicate low statistics and slow scientific growth in publication output, with the highest peak having been reached in 2018, resulting in 13 scientific publications. While global research collaborations are successfully reflected in the literature, there is a considerable gap in understanding heat stress and related collaborations between African countries and international institutions. The review study has identified key opportunities that can benefit Africa through the expansion of the scope of heat stress and human health research on the continent. These opportunities can be achieved by closing the following research gaps: (1) vulnerability assessments within demographic classes, such as the elderly, (2) personal exposure and associated risks, (3) Urban Heat Island (UHI) evaluation for urban environments, and (4) heat adaptation research, which will enable informed and targeted preventive actions that will limit future heat health impacts. The authors opine that the pursuit of such studies will be most impactful if the current knowledge gaps are bridged through transdisciplinary research supported by local, regional, and international collaborators.
Katlego Ncongwane; Joel Botai; Venkataraman Sivakumar; Christina Botai. A Literature Review of the Impacts of Heat Stress on Human Health across Africa. Sustainability 2021, 13, 5312 .
AMA StyleKatlego Ncongwane, Joel Botai, Venkataraman Sivakumar, Christina Botai. A Literature Review of the Impacts of Heat Stress on Human Health across Africa. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (9):5312.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKatlego Ncongwane; Joel Botai; Venkataraman Sivakumar; Christina Botai. 2021. "A Literature Review of the Impacts of Heat Stress on Human Health across Africa." Sustainability 13, no. 9: 5312.
Notwithstanding the dispersed nature of the water, energy and food (WEF) nexus scholarship in the African continent, its strategic importance to the African agenda has gained widespread attention in research and planning circles. In this regard, the bibliometric science mapping and content analysis of the WEF nexus scientific publication trends, the conceptual, intellectual and social structures, as well as the inherent paradigmatic shifts in the WEF nexus body of knowledge in the African continent have been undertaken, using the nexus body of literature accessed from the Web of Science and Scopus core collection databases. The review results confirmed that, whilst the WEF nexus scholarship has expanded since 2013, there is also evidence of growth in the conceptual, intellectual and social structures of the WEF nexus in the African continent. These shifts have resulted in the emergence of hot topics (subfields) including modelling and optimization, climate variability and change, environmental ecosystem services sustainability, and sustainable development and livelihoods. The review further determined that these structures have evolved along two main perspectives of WEF nexus research development, i.e., the interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary domains. In support of the interpretation of the visual analytics of the intellectual structure and changing patterns of the WEF nexus research, the shifts in positivist, interpretivist and pragmatic paradigmatic perspectives (these are underpinned by the ontology, epistemology, and methodology and methods) are considered when explaining WEF nexus research shifts: (a) From the unconnected silo paradigms that focus on water, energy and food (security concerns) to interconnected (and sometimes interdependent or nested) linkages or systems incorporating environmental, social-economic and political drivers (also viewed as subfields) in a bid to holistically support the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) across the African continent; and (b) in the evaluation of the WEF nexus scholarship based on novel analytical approaches. We contend that whilst the theories of science change underpin this apparent expansion, the macro-economic theory will find use in explaining how the WEF nexus research agenda is negotiated and the Integrative Environmental Governance (IEG) is the duly suited governance theory to bridge the inherent disconnect between WEF nexus output and governance processes uncovered in the literature. Overall, operational challenges and opportunities of the WEF nexus abound, transitioning the WEF nexus research to practice in Africa, motivating the need to take advantage of the scholar–practitioner research underpinnings, as contemplated in the transdisciplinary research approach, which is characterised by the dual quest for new knowledge and considerations of use. Yet, there is need for more coordinated and collaborative research to achieve impact and transition from WEF nexus thinking to WEF nexus practice.
Joel Botai; Christina Botai; Katlego Ncongwane; Sylvester Mpandeli; Luxon Nhamo; Muthoni Masinde; Abiodun Adeola; Michael Mengistu; Henerica Tazvinga; Miriam Murambadoro; Shenelle Lottering; Isaac Motochi; Patrick Hayombe; Nosipho Zwane; Eric Wamiti; Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi. A Review of the Water–Energy–Food Nexus Research in Africa. Sustainability 2021, 13, 1762 .
AMA StyleJoel Botai, Christina Botai, Katlego Ncongwane, Sylvester Mpandeli, Luxon Nhamo, Muthoni Masinde, Abiodun Adeola, Michael Mengistu, Henerica Tazvinga, Miriam Murambadoro, Shenelle Lottering, Isaac Motochi, Patrick Hayombe, Nosipho Zwane, Eric Wamiti, Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi. A Review of the Water–Energy–Food Nexus Research in Africa. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (4):1762.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJoel Botai; Christina Botai; Katlego Ncongwane; Sylvester Mpandeli; Luxon Nhamo; Muthoni Masinde; Abiodun Adeola; Michael Mengistu; Henerica Tazvinga; Miriam Murambadoro; Shenelle Lottering; Isaac Motochi; Patrick Hayombe; Nosipho Zwane; Eric Wamiti; Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi. 2021. "A Review of the Water–Energy–Food Nexus Research in Africa." Sustainability 13, no. 4: 1762.
This research study evaluated the projected future climate and anticipated impacts on water-linked sectors on the transboundary Limpopo River Basin (LRB) with a focus on South Africa. Streamflow was simulated from two CORDEX-Africa regional climate models (RCMs) forced by the 5th phase of the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project (CMIP5) Global Climate Models (GCMs), namely, the CanESM2m and IPSL-CM5A-MR climate models. Three climate projection time intervals were considered spanning from 2006 to 2099 and delineated as follows: current climatology (2006–2035), near future (2036–2065) and end of century future projection (2070–2099). Statistical metrics derived from the projected streamflow were used to assess the impacts of the changing climate on water-linked sectors. These metrics included streamflow trends, low and high flow quantile probabilities, the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI) trends and the proportion (%) of dry and wet years, as well as drought monitoring indicators. Based on the Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test, the LRB is projected to experience reduced streamflow in both the near and the distant future. The basin is projected to experience frequent dry and wet conditions that can translate to drought and flash floods, respectively. In particular, a high proportion of dry and a few incidences of wet years are expected in the basin in the future. In general, the findings of this research study will inform and enhance climate change adaptation and mitigation policy decisions and implementation thereof, to sustain the livelihoods of vulnerable communities.
Christina M. Botai; Joel O. Botai; Nosipho N. Zwane; Patrick Hayombe; Eric K. Wamiti; Thabo Makgoale; Miriam D. Murambadoro; Abiodun M. Adeola; Katlego P. Ncongwane; Jaco P. De Wit; Michael G. Mengistu; Henerica Tazvinga. Hydroclimatic Extremes in the Limpopo River Basin, South Africa, under Changing Climate. Water 2020, 12, 3299 .
AMA StyleChristina M. Botai, Joel O. Botai, Nosipho N. Zwane, Patrick Hayombe, Eric K. Wamiti, Thabo Makgoale, Miriam D. Murambadoro, Abiodun M. Adeola, Katlego P. Ncongwane, Jaco P. De Wit, Michael G. Mengistu, Henerica Tazvinga. Hydroclimatic Extremes in the Limpopo River Basin, South Africa, under Changing Climate. Water. 2020; 12 (12):3299.
Chicago/Turabian StyleChristina M. Botai; Joel O. Botai; Nosipho N. Zwane; Patrick Hayombe; Eric K. Wamiti; Thabo Makgoale; Miriam D. Murambadoro; Abiodun M. Adeola; Katlego P. Ncongwane; Jaco P. De Wit; Michael G. Mengistu; Henerica Tazvinga. 2020. "Hydroclimatic Extremes in the Limpopo River Basin, South Africa, under Changing Climate." Water 12, no. 12: 3299.
This research study was carried out to investigate the characteristics of drought based on the joint distribution of two dependent variables, the duration and severity, in the Eastern Cape Province, South Africa. The drought variables were computed from the Standardized Precipitation Index for 6- and 12-month accumulation period (hereafter SPI-6 and SPI-12) time series calculated from the monthly rainfall data spanning the last five decades. In this context, the characteristics of climatological drought duration and severity were based on multivariate copula analysis. Five copula functions (from the Archimedean and Elliptical families) were selected and fitted to the drought duration and severity series in order to assess the dependency measure of the two variables. In addition, Joe and Gaussian copula functions were considered and fitted to the drought duration and severity to assess the joint return periods for the dual and cooperative cases. The results indicate that the dependency measure of drought duration and severity are best described by Tawn copula families. The dependence structure results suggest that the study area exhibited low probability of drought duration and high probability of drought severity. Furthermore, the multivariate return period for the dual case is found to be always longer across all the selected univariate return periods. Based on multivariate analysis, the study area (particularly Buffalo City, OR Tambo and Alfred Zoo regions) is determined to have higher/lower risks in terms of the conjunctive/cooperative multivariate drought risk (copula) probability index. The results of the present study could contribute towards policy and decision making through e.g., formulation of the forward-looking contingent plans for sustainable management of water resources and the consequent applications in the preparedness for and adaptation to the drought risks in the water-linked sectors of the economy.
Christina M. Botai; Joel O. Botai; Abiodun M. Adeola; Jaco P. De Wit; Katlego P. Ncongwane; Nosipho N. Zwane. Drought Risk Analysis in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa: The Copula Lens. Water 2020, 12, 1938 .
AMA StyleChristina M. Botai, Joel O. Botai, Abiodun M. Adeola, Jaco P. De Wit, Katlego P. Ncongwane, Nosipho N. Zwane. Drought Risk Analysis in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa: The Copula Lens. Water. 2020; 12 (7):1938.
Chicago/Turabian StyleChristina M. Botai; Joel O. Botai; Abiodun M. Adeola; Jaco P. De Wit; Katlego P. Ncongwane; Nosipho N. Zwane. 2020. "Drought Risk Analysis in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa: The Copula Lens." Water 12, no. 7: 1938.
This contribution aims to investigate the influence of monthly total rainfall variations on malaria transmission in the Limpopo Province. For this purpose, monthly total rainfall was interpolated from daily rainfall data from weather stations. Annual and seasonal trends, as well as cross-correlation analyses, were performed on time series of monthly total rainfall and monthly malaria cases in five districts of Limpopo Province for the period of 1998 to 2017. The time series analysis indicated that an average of 629.5 mm of rainfall was received over the period of study. The rainfall has an annual variation of about 0.46%. Rainfall amount varied within the five districts, with the northeastern part receiving more rainfall. Spearman’s correlation analysis indicated that the total monthly rainfall with one to two months lagged effect is significant in malaria transmission across all the districts. The strongest correlation was noticed in Vhembe (r = 0.54; p-value =
Abiodun Adeola; Katlego Ncongwane; Gbenga Abiodun; Thabo Makgoale; Hannes Rautenbach; Joel Botai; Omolola Adisa; Christina Botai. Rainfall Trends and Malaria Occurrences in Limpopo Province, South Africa. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 2019, 16, 5156 .
AMA StyleAbiodun Adeola, Katlego Ncongwane, Gbenga Abiodun, Thabo Makgoale, Hannes Rautenbach, Joel Botai, Omolola Adisa, Christina Botai. Rainfall Trends and Malaria Occurrences in Limpopo Province, South Africa. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2019; 16 (24):5156.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAbiodun Adeola; Katlego Ncongwane; Gbenga Abiodun; Thabo Makgoale; Hannes Rautenbach; Joel Botai; Omolola Adisa; Christina Botai. 2019. "Rainfall Trends and Malaria Occurrences in Limpopo Province, South Africa." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 16, no. 24: 5156.
This study reports on the performance results of the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) quality control procedures applied to the solar radiation data, from September 2013 to December 2017, within the South African Weather Service radiometric network. The overall percentage performance of the SAWS solar radiation network based on BSRN quality control methodology was 97.79%, 93.64%, 91.60% and 92.23% for long wave downward irradiance (LWD), global horizontal irradiance (GHI), diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI), respectively, with operational problems largely dominating the percentage of bad data. The overall average performance of the surface solar radiation dataset – Heliosat data records for the GHI estimation for all stations showed a mean bias deviation of 8.28 Wm-2, a mean absolute deviation of 9.06 Wm-2 and the root mean square deviation of 11.02 Wm-2. The correlation, quantified by the square of correlation coefficient (R2), between ground-based and Heliosat-derived GHI time series was ~0.98. The established network has the potential to provide high quality minute solar radiation data sets (GHI, DHI, DNI and LWD) and auxiliary hourly meteorological parameters vital for scientific and practical applications in renewable energy technologies.
Lucky Ntsangwane; Brighton Mabasa; Venkataraman Sivakumar; Nosipho Zwane; Katlego Ncongwane; Joel Botai. Quality control of solar radiation data within the South African Weather Service solar radiometric network. Journal of Energy in Southern Africa 2019, 30, 51 -63.
AMA StyleLucky Ntsangwane, Brighton Mabasa, Venkataraman Sivakumar, Nosipho Zwane, Katlego Ncongwane, Joel Botai. Quality control of solar radiation data within the South African Weather Service solar radiometric network. Journal of Energy in Southern Africa. 2019; 30 (4):51-63.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLucky Ntsangwane; Brighton Mabasa; Venkataraman Sivakumar; Nosipho Zwane; Katlego Ncongwane; Joel Botai. 2019. "Quality control of solar radiation data within the South African Weather Service solar radiometric network." Journal of Energy in Southern Africa 30, no. 4: 51-63.
Quality control (QC) may be a lengthy and tedious process. As a result, most data users use data from meteorological services without performing data quality checks. The South African Weather Service (SAWS) re-established the national solar radiometric network comprising of 13 new stations within the six climatic zones of the country. This study reports on the performance results of the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) QC procedures applied to the solar radiation data within the SAWS radiometric network. The overall percentage performance of the SAWS solar radiation network based on BSRN QC methodology is 97.79%, 93.64%, 91.6% and 92.23% for Long Wave Downward Irradiance (LWD), Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI), Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance (DHI) and Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) respectively with operational problems largely dominating the percentage of bad data. The overall average performance of the Surface Solar Radiation Dataset – Heliosat (SARAH) data records for the GHI estimation for all the stations showed a Mean Bias Deviation (MBD) of -8.28 Wm-2, a Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) of 9.06 Wm-2 and the Root Mean Square Deviation (RMSD) of 11.02 Wm-2. The correlation (quantified by R2) between ground-based and SARAH-derived GHI time series was ~ 0.98. The established network has the potential of providing high quality minute solar radiation data sets (GHI, DHI, DNI and LWD) and auxiliary hourly meteorological parameters vital for scientific and practical applications in renewable energy technologies in South Africa.
Lucky Ntsangwane; Venkataraman Sivakumar; Brighton Mabasa; Nosipho Zwane; Katlego Ncongwane; Joel Botai. Quality Control of Solar Radiation Data within the South African Weather Service Solar Radiometric Network. 2018, 1 .
AMA StyleLucky Ntsangwane, Venkataraman Sivakumar, Brighton Mabasa, Nosipho Zwane, Katlego Ncongwane, Joel Botai. Quality Control of Solar Radiation Data within the South African Weather Service Solar Radiometric Network. . 2018; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLucky Ntsangwane; Venkataraman Sivakumar; Brighton Mabasa; Nosipho Zwane; Katlego Ncongwane; Joel Botai. 2018. "Quality Control of Solar Radiation Data within the South African Weather Service Solar Radiometric Network." , no. : 1.
This study analyzed the variability of the agro-climatic parameters that impact maize production across different seasons in South Africa. To achieve this, four agro-climatic variables (precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, minimum, and maximum temperatures) were considered for the period spanning 1986–2015, covering the North West, Free State, Mpumalanga, and KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) provinces. Results illustrate that there is a negative trend in precipitation for North West and Free State provinces and positive trend in maximum temperature for all the provinces over the study period. Furthermore, the results showed that among other agro-climatic parameters, minimum temperature had the most influence on maize production in North West, potential evapotranspiration (combination of the agro-climatic parameters), minimum and maximum temperature influenced maize production in KZN while maximum temperature influenced maize production in Mpumalanga and Free State. In general, the agro-climatic parameters were found to contribute 7.79, 21.85, 32.52, and 44.39% to variation in maize production during the study period in North West, Free State, Mpumalanga, and KZN, respectively. The variation in maize production among the provinces under investigation could most likely attribute to the variation in the size of the cultivated land among other factors including soil type and land tenure system. There were also difference in yield per hectare between the provinces; KZN and Mpumalanga being located in the humid subtropical areas of South Africa had the highest yield per hectare 5.61 and 4.99 tons, respectively, while Free State and North West which are in the semi-arid region had the lowest yield per hectare 3.86 and 3.03 tons, respectively. Understanding the nature and interaction of the dominant agro-climatic parameters discussed in the present study as well as their impact on maize production will help farmers and agricultural policy makers to understand how climate change exerts its influence on maize production within the study area so as to better adapt to the major climate element that either increases or decreases maize production in their respective provinces.
Omolola Adisa; Christina M. Botai; Joel Botai; Abubeker Hassen; Daniel Darkey; Eyob Tesfamariam; Alex F. Adisa; Abiodun M. Adeola; Katlego P. Ncongwane. Analysis of agro-climatic parameters and their influence on maize production in South Africa. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 2017, 134, 991 -1004.
AMA StyleOmolola Adisa, Christina M. Botai, Joel Botai, Abubeker Hassen, Daniel Darkey, Eyob Tesfamariam, Alex F. Adisa, Abiodun M. Adeola, Katlego P. Ncongwane. Analysis of agro-climatic parameters and their influence on maize production in South Africa. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 2017; 134 (3-4):991-1004.
Chicago/Turabian StyleOmolola Adisa; Christina M. Botai; Joel Botai; Abubeker Hassen; Daniel Darkey; Eyob Tesfamariam; Alex F. Adisa; Abiodun M. Adeola; Katlego P. Ncongwane. 2017. "Analysis of agro-climatic parameters and their influence on maize production in South Africa." Theoretical and Applied Climatology 134, no. 3-4: 991-1004.
South Africa has been measuring the ground-based solar UV index for more than two decades at six sites to raise awareness about the impacts of the solar UV index on human health. This paper is an exploratory study based on comparison with satellite UV index measurements from the OMI/AURA experiment. Relative UV index differences between ground-based and satellite-derived data ranged from 0 to 45% depending on the site and year. Most of time, these differences appear in winter. Some ground-based stations’ data had closer agreement with satellite-derived data. While the ground-based instruments are not intended for long-term trend analysis, they provide UV index information for public awareness instead, with some weak signs suggesting such long-term trends may exist in the ground-based data. The annual cycle, altitude, and latitude effects clearly appear in the UV index data measured in South Africa. This variability must be taken into account for the development of an excess solar UV exposure prevention strategy.
Jean-Maurice Cadet; Hassan Bencherif; Thierry Portafaix; Kévin Lamy; Katlego Ncongwane; Gerrie J. R. Coetzee; Caradee Y. Wright. Comparison of Ground-Based and Satellite-Derived Solar UV Index Levels at Six South African Sites. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 2017, 14, 1384 .
AMA StyleJean-Maurice Cadet, Hassan Bencherif, Thierry Portafaix, Kévin Lamy, Katlego Ncongwane, Gerrie J. R. Coetzee, Caradee Y. Wright. Comparison of Ground-Based and Satellite-Derived Solar UV Index Levels at Six South African Sites. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2017; 14 (11):1384.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJean-Maurice Cadet; Hassan Bencherif; Thierry Portafaix; Kévin Lamy; Katlego Ncongwane; Gerrie J. R. Coetzee; Caradee Y. Wright. 2017. "Comparison of Ground-Based and Satellite-Derived Solar UV Index Levels at Six South African Sites." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 14, no. 11: 1384.
Drought is a creeping phenomenon whose effects evolve with time, yet the start and end is often only clear in the hindsight. The present study assessed drought conditions using two categories of drought indicators computed from precipitation data sets measured by weather stations across the Western Cape Province, South Africa for the period 1985 to 2016. The first category was the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) accumulated over 3-, 6- and 12-months (hereafter of SPI-3, SPI-6 and SPI-12 respectively). The second category consists of the four Drought Monitoring Indicators (DMI) i.e., Drought Duration (DD), Severity (DS), Intensity (DI) and Frequency (DF). Firstly, analysis of SPI-3, SPI-6 and SPI-12 illustrate that between 1985 and 2016, the Western Cape Province experienced recurrent mild drought conditions. This suggests that the drought conditions experienced during 2015/2016 hydrological year (hereafter current) in the Western Cape Province is a manifestation of past drought conditions. Secondly, analysis of trends in DMI series depict a noticeable spatial-temporal dependence wherein the southern and western regions experienced more severe droughts compared to the eastern and northern regions of the Western Cape Province. Results also show that the DMI trends exhibit up to ~8% variability over the past decade. Overall, the current drought conditions in the Western Cape Province continues to adversely affect agricultural production while the water reservoirs are at below 30% capacity implying that the socio-economic impacts of these droughts will continue to reverberate for many months to come. Though the on-going drought conditions in the Western Cape Province is a regular part of nature’s cycle, analysis of historical drought characteristics based on drought indicators is an important first step towards placing the current drought conditions into perspective, and contribute to triggering action and response thereof. All these lay the foundation for drought monitoring and contribute towards the development of drought early warning.
Christina M. Botai; Joel O. Botai; Jaco P. De Wit; Katlego P. Ncongwane; Abiodun M. Adeola. Drought Characteristics over the Western Cape Province, South Africa. Water 2017, 9, 876 .
AMA StyleChristina M. Botai, Joel O. Botai, Jaco P. De Wit, Katlego P. Ncongwane, Abiodun M. Adeola. Drought Characteristics over the Western Cape Province, South Africa. Water. 2017; 9 (11):876.
Chicago/Turabian StyleChristina M. Botai; Joel O. Botai; Jaco P. De Wit; Katlego P. Ncongwane; Abiodun M. Adeola. 2017. "Drought Characteristics over the Western Cape Province, South Africa." Water 9, no. 11: 876.
The north-eastern parts of South Africa, comprising the Limpopo Province, have recorded a sudden rise in the rate of malaria morbidity and mortality in the 2017 malaria season. The epidemiological profiles of malaria, as well as other vector-borne diseases, are strongly associated with climate and environmental conditions. A retrospective understanding of the relationship between climate and the occurrence of malaria may provide insight into the dynamics of the disease’s transmission and its persistence in the north-eastern region. In this paper, the association between climatic variables and the occurrence of malaria was studied in the Mutale local municipality in South Africa over a period of 19-year. Time series analysis was conducted on monthly climatic variables and monthly malaria cases in the Mutale municipality for the period of 1998–2017. Spearman correlation analysis was performed and the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was developed. Microsoft Excel was used for data cleaning, and statistical software R was used to analyse the data and develop the model. Results show that both climatic variables’ and malaria cases’ time series exhibited seasonal patterns, showing a number of peaks and fluctuations. Spearman correlation analysis indicated that monthly total rainfall, mean minimum temperature, mean maximum temperature, mean average temperature, and mean relative humidity were significantly and positively correlated with monthly malaria cases in the study area. Regression analysis showed that monthly total rainfall and monthly mean minimum temperature (R2 = 0.65), at a two-month lagged effect, are the most significant climatic predictors of malaria transmission in Mutale local municipality. A SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1) model fitted with only malaria cases has a prediction performance of about 51%, and the SARIMAX (2,1,2) (1,1,1) model with climatic variables as exogenous factors has a prediction performance of about 72% in malaria cases. The model gives a close comparison between the predicted and observed number of malaria cases, hence indicating that the model provides an acceptable fit to predict the number of malaria cases in the municipality. To sum up, the association between the climatic variables and malaria cases provides clues to better understand the dynamics of malaria transmission. The lagged effect detected in this study can help in adequate planning for malaria intervention.
Abiodun M. Adeola; Joel O. Botai; Hannes Rautenbach; Omolola M. Adisa; Katlego P. Ncongwane; Christina M. Botai; Temitope C. Adebayo-Ojo. Climatic Variables and Malaria Morbidity in Mutale Local Municipality, South Africa: A 19-Year Data Analysis. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 2017, 14, 1360 .
AMA StyleAbiodun M. Adeola, Joel O. Botai, Hannes Rautenbach, Omolola M. Adisa, Katlego P. Ncongwane, Christina M. Botai, Temitope C. Adebayo-Ojo. Climatic Variables and Malaria Morbidity in Mutale Local Municipality, South Africa: A 19-Year Data Analysis. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2017; 14 (11):1360.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAbiodun M. Adeola; Joel O. Botai; Hannes Rautenbach; Omolola M. Adisa; Katlego P. Ncongwane; Christina M. Botai; Temitope C. Adebayo-Ojo. 2017. "Climatic Variables and Malaria Morbidity in Mutale Local Municipality, South Africa: A 19-Year Data Analysis." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 14, no. 11: 1360.