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The heat load in district heating systems is affected by the weather and by human behavior, and special consumption patterns are observed around holidays. This study employs a top-down approach to heat load forecasting using meteorological data and new untraditional data types such as school holidays. Three different machine learning models are benchmarked for forecasting the aggregated heat load of the large district heating system of Aarhus, Denmark. The models are trained on six years of measured hourly heat load data and a blind year of test data is withheld until the final testing of the forecasting capabilities of the models. In this final test, weather forecasts from the Danish Meteorological Institute are used to measure the performance of the heat load forecasts under realistic operational conditions. We demonstrate models with forecasting performance that can match state-of-the-art commercial software and explore the benefit of including local holiday data to improve forecasting accuracy. The best forecasting performance is achieved with a support vector regression on weather, calendar, and holiday data, yielding a mean absolute percentage error of 6.4% on the 15–38 h horizon. On average, the forecasts could be improved slightly by including local holiday data. On holidays, this performance improvement was more significant.
Magnus Dahl; Adam Brun; Oliver S. Kirsebom; Gorm B. Andresen. Improving Short-Term Heat Load Forecasts with Calendar and Holiday Data. Energies 2018, 11, 1678 .
AMA StyleMagnus Dahl, Adam Brun, Oliver S. Kirsebom, Gorm B. Andresen. Improving Short-Term Heat Load Forecasts with Calendar and Holiday Data. Energies. 2018; 11 (7):1678.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMagnus Dahl; Adam Brun; Oliver S. Kirsebom; Gorm B. Andresen. 2018. "Improving Short-Term Heat Load Forecasts with Calendar and Holiday Data." Energies 11, no. 7: 1678.
Magnus Dahl; Adam Brun; Gorm B. Andresen. Decision rules for economic summer-shutdown of production units in large district heating systems. Applied Energy 2017, 208, 1128 -1138.
AMA StyleMagnus Dahl, Adam Brun, Gorm B. Andresen. Decision rules for economic summer-shutdown of production units in large district heating systems. Applied Energy. 2017; 208 ():1128-1138.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMagnus Dahl; Adam Brun; Gorm B. Andresen. 2017. "Decision rules for economic summer-shutdown of production units in large district heating systems." Applied Energy 208, no. : 1128-1138.
Magnus Dahl; Adam Brun; Gorm Bruun Andresen. Using ensemble weather predictions in district heating operation and load forecasting. Applied Energy 2017, 193, 455 -465.
AMA StyleMagnus Dahl, Adam Brun, Gorm Bruun Andresen. Using ensemble weather predictions in district heating operation and load forecasting. Applied Energy. 2017; 193 ():455-465.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMagnus Dahl; Adam Brun; Gorm Bruun Andresen. 2017. "Using ensemble weather predictions in district heating operation and load forecasting." Applied Energy 193, no. : 455-465.
A global electricity grid may offer a number of advantages in a future highly renewable energy system dominated by wind and solar power. In this paper, we provide quantitative estimates for the benefits and costs of an intercontinental HVDC grid connecting a number of highly populated super regions in the Northern Hemisphere. The modeling is based on hourly time series of wind and solar power generation calculated from high-resolution global weather data using the Global Renewable Energy Atlas. Taking a European point of view, we find that the annual need for backup energy can be reduced from 18 to 10 % of the load by connecting to North Africa, the Middle East and Russia. A further reduction to 7 % is found for a grid spanning the whole Northern Hemisphere at the expense of substantial increase in transmission capacities. Comparing the economical benefits to the additional cost of intercontinental transmission lines, we estimate that connecting Europe to its geographically nearest neighbors may reduce the total cost of electricity. Longer distance connections to North America or Asia, on the other hand, would require transmission costs to fall to 15–20 % of current levels.
Magnus Dahl; Rolando A. Rodriguez; Anders Aspegren Søndergaard; Timo Zeyer; Gorm Bruun Andresen; Martin “Walterson” Greiner. Infrastructure Estimates for a Highly Renewable Global Electricity Grid. New Horizons in Fundamental Physics 2016, 333 -356.
AMA StyleMagnus Dahl, Rolando A. Rodriguez, Anders Aspegren Søndergaard, Timo Zeyer, Gorm Bruun Andresen, Martin “Walterson” Greiner. Infrastructure Estimates for a Highly Renewable Global Electricity Grid. New Horizons in Fundamental Physics. 2016; ():333-356.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMagnus Dahl; Rolando A. Rodriguez; Anders Aspegren Søndergaard; Timo Zeyer; Gorm Bruun Andresen; Martin “Walterson” Greiner. 2016. "Infrastructure Estimates for a Highly Renewable Global Electricity Grid." New Horizons in Fundamental Physics , no. : 333-356.
A future, highly renewable electricity system will be largely based on fluctuating renewables. The integration of wind and solar photovoltaics presents a major challenge. Transmission can be used to lower the need for complementary generation, which we term backup in this article.
Rolando Andrés Rodríguez; Magnus Dahl; Sarah Becker; Martin Greiner. Localized vs. synchronized exports across a highly renewable pan‐European transmission network. Energy, Sustainability and Society 2015, 5, 21 .
AMA StyleRolando Andrés Rodríguez, Magnus Dahl, Sarah Becker, Martin Greiner. Localized vs. synchronized exports across a highly renewable pan‐European transmission network. Energy, Sustainability and Society. 2015; 5 (1):21.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRolando Andrés Rodríguez; Magnus Dahl; Sarah Becker; Martin Greiner. 2015. "Localized vs. synchronized exports across a highly renewable pan‐European transmission network." Energy, Sustainability and Society 5, no. 1: 21.