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Magnus Dahl
Department of Engineering, Aarhus University, Inge Lehmanns Gade 10, 8000 Aarhus, Denmark

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Journal article
Published: 27 June 2018 in Energies
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The heat load in district heating systems is affected by the weather and by human behavior, and special consumption patterns are observed around holidays. This study employs a top-down approach to heat load forecasting using meteorological data and new untraditional data types such as school holidays. Three different machine learning models are benchmarked for forecasting the aggregated heat load of the large district heating system of Aarhus, Denmark. The models are trained on six years of measured hourly heat load data and a blind year of test data is withheld until the final testing of the forecasting capabilities of the models. In this final test, weather forecasts from the Danish Meteorological Institute are used to measure the performance of the heat load forecasts under realistic operational conditions. We demonstrate models with forecasting performance that can match state-of-the-art commercial software and explore the benefit of including local holiday data to improve forecasting accuracy. The best forecasting performance is achieved with a support vector regression on weather, calendar, and holiday data, yielding a mean absolute percentage error of 6.4% on the 15–38 h horizon. On average, the forecasts could be improved slightly by including local holiday data. On holidays, this performance improvement was more significant.

ACS Style

Magnus Dahl; Adam Brun; Oliver S. Kirsebom; Gorm B. Andresen. Improving Short-Term Heat Load Forecasts with Calendar and Holiday Data. Energies 2018, 11, 1678 .

AMA Style

Magnus Dahl, Adam Brun, Oliver S. Kirsebom, Gorm B. Andresen. Improving Short-Term Heat Load Forecasts with Calendar and Holiday Data. Energies. 2018; 11 (7):1678.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Magnus Dahl; Adam Brun; Oliver S. Kirsebom; Gorm B. Andresen. 2018. "Improving Short-Term Heat Load Forecasts with Calendar and Holiday Data." Energies 11, no. 7: 1678.

Journal article
Published: 01 December 2017 in Applied Energy
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ACS Style

Magnus Dahl; Adam Brun; Gorm B. Andresen. Decision rules for economic summer-shutdown of production units in large district heating systems. Applied Energy 2017, 208, 1128 -1138.

AMA Style

Magnus Dahl, Adam Brun, Gorm B. Andresen. Decision rules for economic summer-shutdown of production units in large district heating systems. Applied Energy. 2017; 208 ():1128-1138.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Magnus Dahl; Adam Brun; Gorm B. Andresen. 2017. "Decision rules for economic summer-shutdown of production units in large district heating systems." Applied Energy 208, no. : 1128-1138.

Journal article
Published: 01 May 2017 in Applied Energy
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ACS Style

Magnus Dahl; Adam Brun; Gorm Bruun Andresen. Using ensemble weather predictions in district heating operation and load forecasting. Applied Energy 2017, 193, 455 -465.

AMA Style

Magnus Dahl, Adam Brun, Gorm Bruun Andresen. Using ensemble weather predictions in district heating operation and load forecasting. Applied Energy. 2017; 193 ():455-465.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Magnus Dahl; Adam Brun; Gorm Bruun Andresen. 2017. "Using ensemble weather predictions in district heating operation and load forecasting." Applied Energy 193, no. : 455-465.

Book chapter
Published: 12 November 2016 in New Horizons in Fundamental Physics
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A global electricity grid may offer a number of advantages in a future highly renewable energy system dominated by wind and solar power. In this paper, we provide quantitative estimates for the benefits and costs of an intercontinental HVDC grid connecting a number of highly populated super regions in the Northern Hemisphere. The modeling is based on hourly time series of wind and solar power generation calculated from high-resolution global weather data using the Global Renewable Energy Atlas. Taking a European point of view, we find that the annual need for backup energy can be reduced from 18 to 10 % of the load by connecting to North Africa, the Middle East and Russia. A further reduction to 7 % is found for a grid spanning the whole Northern Hemisphere at the expense of substantial increase in transmission capacities. Comparing the economical benefits to the additional cost of intercontinental transmission lines, we estimate that connecting Europe to its geographically nearest neighbors may reduce the total cost of electricity. Longer distance connections to North America or Asia, on the other hand, would require transmission costs to fall to 15–20 % of current levels.

ACS Style

Magnus Dahl; Rolando A. Rodriguez; Anders Aspegren Søndergaard; Timo Zeyer; Gorm Bruun Andresen; Martin “Walterson” Greiner. Infrastructure Estimates for a Highly Renewable Global Electricity Grid. New Horizons in Fundamental Physics 2016, 333 -356.

AMA Style

Magnus Dahl, Rolando A. Rodriguez, Anders Aspegren Søndergaard, Timo Zeyer, Gorm Bruun Andresen, Martin “Walterson” Greiner. Infrastructure Estimates for a Highly Renewable Global Electricity Grid. New Horizons in Fundamental Physics. 2016; ():333-356.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Magnus Dahl; Rolando A. Rodriguez; Anders Aspegren Søndergaard; Timo Zeyer; Gorm Bruun Andresen; Martin “Walterson” Greiner. 2016. "Infrastructure Estimates for a Highly Renewable Global Electricity Grid." New Horizons in Fundamental Physics , no. : 333-356.

Journal article
Published: 07 July 2015 in Energy, Sustainability and Society
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A future, highly renewable electricity system will be largely based on fluctuating renewables. The integration of wind and solar photovoltaics presents a major challenge. Transmission can be used to lower the need for complementary generation, which we term backup in this article.

ACS Style

Rolando Andrés Rodríguez; Magnus Dahl; Sarah Becker; Martin Greiner. Localized vs. synchronized exports across a highly renewable pan‐European transmission network. Energy, Sustainability and Society 2015, 5, 21 .

AMA Style

Rolando Andrés Rodríguez, Magnus Dahl, Sarah Becker, Martin Greiner. Localized vs. synchronized exports across a highly renewable pan‐European transmission network. Energy, Sustainability and Society. 2015; 5 (1):21.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Rolando Andrés Rodríguez; Magnus Dahl; Sarah Becker; Martin Greiner. 2015. "Localized vs. synchronized exports across a highly renewable pan‐European transmission network." Energy, Sustainability and Society 5, no. 1: 21.