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Selection of suitable gridded precipitation data is deemed for hydroclimatic assessment and climate change impact analysis, especially in regions where long-term reliable precipitation data is unavailable. A novel approach based on fuzzy entropy similarity analysis (FESA) is proposed to evaluate the performance of four reanalysis gridded precipitation datasets (GPDs) for Egypt, namely European Reanalysis v.5. (ERA5), TerraClimate, Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS)—Noah Land Surface Model L4 v.2 and Climatologies at high resolution for the Earth's land surface areas (CHELSA), against gauge records. The proposed method was verified using conventional statistics. Besides, the relative performance of different GPDs was verified according to their response to the influence of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Mediterranean Oscillation (MO) on winter precipitation. The performance of the best reanalysis GPD was also compared with the gauge-based global precipitation climatology centre (GPCC) dataset to show its reliability. The FESA revealed CHELSA as the best reanalysis GPD for Egypt. The performance assessment of GDPs based on conventional statistical metrics and visual presentation confirms the results obtained using FESA. CHELSA showed significant correlations with NAO (r = 0.3627) and MO (r = 0.624) like that obtained for gauge records. CHELSA also showed a better representation of precipitation in Egypt than GPCC at nearly half of the gauge locations. As CHELSA has a much higher spatial resolution than GPCC, it can be recommended as the proxy of gauge records in Egypt. The FESA can be used for performance analysis of gridded climate data by avoiding the complexities of using multiple statistical metrics.
Mohammed Magdy Hamed; Mohamed Salem Nashwan; Shamsuddin Shahid. Performance evaluation of reanalysis precipitation products in Egypt using fuzzy entropy time series similarity analysis. International Journal of Climatology 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleMohammed Magdy Hamed, Mohamed Salem Nashwan, Shamsuddin Shahid. Performance evaluation of reanalysis precipitation products in Egypt using fuzzy entropy time series similarity analysis. International Journal of Climatology. 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMohammed Magdy Hamed; Mohamed Salem Nashwan; Shamsuddin Shahid. 2021. "Performance evaluation of reanalysis precipitation products in Egypt using fuzzy entropy time series similarity analysis." International Journal of Climatology , no. : 1.
A major challenge in flood mapping using multi‐criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is the selection of the flood risk factors and the estimation of their relative importance. A novel MCDA method through the integration of two state‐of‐the‐art MCDA methods based on catastrophe and entropy theory is proposed for mapping flood risk in the Peninsular Malaysia, an area very susceptible to flooding events, is presented. A literature review was undertaken which identified the various socioeconomic, physical and environmental factors which can influence flood vulnerability and risk. A set of variables was selected using an importance index which was developed based on a questionnaire survey. Population density, percentage of vulnerable people, household income, local economy, percentage of foreign nationals, elevation and forest cover were all deemed highly relevant in mapping flood risk and determining the zones of maximum vulnerability. Spatial integration of factors using the proposed MCDA revealed that coastal regions are highly vulnerable to floods when compared to inland locations. Flood risk maps indicate that the northeastern coastal region of Malaysia is at greatest risk of flooding. The prediction capability of the integrated method was found to be 0.93, which suggests good accuracy of the proposed method in flood risk mapping.
Ghaith Falah Ziarh; Asaduzzaman; Ashraf Dewan; Mohamed Salem Nashwan; Shamsuddin Shahid. Integration of catastrophe and entropy theories for flood risk mapping in peninsular Malaysia. Journal of Flood Risk Management 2020, 14, 1 .
AMA StyleGhaith Falah Ziarh, Asaduzzaman, Ashraf Dewan, Mohamed Salem Nashwan, Shamsuddin Shahid. Integration of catastrophe and entropy theories for flood risk mapping in peninsular Malaysia. Journal of Flood Risk Management. 2020; 14 (1):1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGhaith Falah Ziarh; Asaduzzaman; Ashraf Dewan; Mohamed Salem Nashwan; Shamsuddin Shahid. 2020. "Integration of catastrophe and entropy theories for flood risk mapping in peninsular Malaysia." Journal of Flood Risk Management 14, no. 1: 1.
This study compared the historical and future simulations of precipitation in South Korea from INM-CM4 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) 5 and INM-CM5 of CMIP6 to identify their differences for the projections of corresponding scenarios by three timeframes (annual, summer and winter) and four regions (NW, NE, SW and SE). Six performance indicators were used to quantify the models' reproducibility to precipitation at 22 stations in South Korea for the historical period (1970–2005). Then, the change rates of precipitations in near and far futures (2020–2059 and 2060–2099) were calculated for two representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 and socioeconomic shared pathway (SSP) 2–4.5 and 5–8.5. Their uncertainties were also quantified using standard deviations and interquartile ranges. As a result, CM5 clearly showed a 7.4% improvement in six performance indicators. The change rates in far future were larger but the uncertainties were smaller. But both the rates and uncertainties in NW were the largest. Also, the uncertainties in INM-CM5 were also smaller than in INM-CM4 for all timeframes and the differences between RCP4.5 and SSP2-4.5 were absolutely larger than those between RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5.
Young Hoon Song; Mohamed Salem Nashwan; Eun-Sung Chung; Shamsuddin Shahid. Advances in CMIP6 INM-CM5 over CMIP5 INM-CM4 for precipitation simulation in South Korea. Atmospheric Research 2020, 247, 105261 .
AMA StyleYoung Hoon Song, Mohamed Salem Nashwan, Eun-Sung Chung, Shamsuddin Shahid. Advances in CMIP6 INM-CM5 over CMIP5 INM-CM4 for precipitation simulation in South Korea. Atmospheric Research. 2020; 247 ():105261.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYoung Hoon Song; Mohamed Salem Nashwan; Eun-Sung Chung; Shamsuddin Shahid. 2020. "Advances in CMIP6 INM-CM5 over CMIP5 INM-CM4 for precipitation simulation in South Korea." Atmospheric Research 247, no. : 105261.
An assessment of uncertainty in flood hydrograph features, e.g., peak discharge and flood volume due to variability in the rainfall-runoff model (HEC-HMS) parameters and rainfall characteristics, e.g., depth and duration, is conducted. Flood hydrographs are generated using a rain pattern generator (RPG) and HEC-HMS models through Monte Carlo simulation considering uncertainty in stochastic variables. The uncertainties in HEC-HMS parameters (e.g., loss, base flow, and unit hydrograph) are estimated using their probability distribution functions. The flood events are obtained by simulating runoff for rainfall events using the generated model parameters. The uncertainties due to rainfall and model parameters on generated flood hydrographs are evaluated using the relative coefficient of variation (RCV). The results reveal a higher RCV index for flood volume (RCV = 153) than peak discharge (RCV = 116) for a 12-hr rainfall duration. The average relative RCV (ARRCV) index computed for hydrological component (e.g., base flow, loss, or unit hydrograph) indicates the highest impact of rainfall depth on flood volume and peak. The results indicate that rainfall depth is the main source of uncertainty of flood peak and volume.
Ahmad Sharafati; Mohammad Reza Khazaei; Mohamed Salem Nashwan; Nadhir Al-Ansari; Zaher Mundher Yaseen; Shamsuddin Shahid. Assessing the Uncertainty Associated with Flood Features due to Variability of Rainfall and Hydrological Parameters. Advances in Civil Engineering 2020, 2020, 1 -9.
AMA StyleAhmad Sharafati, Mohammad Reza Khazaei, Mohamed Salem Nashwan, Nadhir Al-Ansari, Zaher Mundher Yaseen, Shamsuddin Shahid. Assessing the Uncertainty Associated with Flood Features due to Variability of Rainfall and Hydrological Parameters. Advances in Civil Engineering. 2020; 2020 ():1-9.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAhmad Sharafati; Mohammad Reza Khazaei; Mohamed Salem Nashwan; Nadhir Al-Ansari; Zaher Mundher Yaseen; Shamsuddin Shahid. 2020. "Assessing the Uncertainty Associated with Flood Features due to Variability of Rainfall and Hydrological Parameters." Advances in Civil Engineering 2020, no. : 1-9.
Reduction of uncertainty in climate change projections is a major challenge in impact assessment and adaptation planning. General circulation models (GCMs) along with projection scenarios are the major sources of uncertainty in climate change projections. Therefore, the selection of appropriate GCMs for a region can significantly reduce uncertainty in climate projections. In this study, 20 GCMs were statistically evaluated in replicating the spatial pattern of monsoon propagation towards Peninsular Malaysia at annual and seasonal time frames against the 20th Century Reanalysis dataset. The performance evaluation metrics of the GCMs for different time frames were compromised using a state-of-art multi-criteria decision-making approach, compromise programming, for the selection of GCMs. Finally, the selected GCMs were interpolated to 0.25° × 0.25° spatial resolution and bias-corrected using the Asian Precipitation – Highly-Resolved Observational Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) rainfall as reference data. The results revealed the better performance of BCC-CSM1-1 and HadGEM2-ES in replicating the historical rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia. The bias-corrected projections of selected GCMs revealed a large variation of the mean, standard deviation and 95% percentile of daily rainfall in the study area for two futures, 2020–2059 and 2060–2099 compared to base climate.
Saleem A. Salman; Mohamed Salem Nashwan; Tarmizi Ismail; Shamsuddin Shahid. Selection of CMIP5 general circulation model outputs of precipitation for peninsular Malaysia. Water Policy 2020, 51, 781 -798.
AMA StyleSaleem A. Salman, Mohamed Salem Nashwan, Tarmizi Ismail, Shamsuddin Shahid. Selection of CMIP5 general circulation model outputs of precipitation for peninsular Malaysia. Water Policy. 2020; 51 (4):781-798.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSaleem A. Salman; Mohamed Salem Nashwan; Tarmizi Ismail; Shamsuddin Shahid. 2020. "Selection of CMIP5 general circulation model outputs of precipitation for peninsular Malaysia." Water Policy 51, no. 4: 781-798.
The present study projected future climate change for the densely populated Central North region of Egypt (CNE) for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and two futures (near future: 2020–2059, and far future: 2060–2099), estimated by a credible subset of five global climate models (GCMs). Different bias correction models have been applied to correct the bias in the five interpolated GCMs’ outputs onto a high-resolution horizontal grid. The 0.05° CNE datasets of maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmx, and Tmn, respectively) and the 0.1° African Rainfall Climatology (ARC2) datasets represented the historical climate. The evaluation of bias correction methodologies revealed the better performance of linear and variance scaling for correcting the rainfall and temperature GCMs’ outputs, respectively. They were used to transfer the correction factor to the projections. The five statistically bias-corrected climate projections presented the uncertainty range in the future change in the climate of CNE. The rainfall is expected to increase in the near future but drastically decrease in the far future. The Tmx and Tmn are projected to increase in both future periods reaching nearly a maximum of 5.50 and 8.50 °C for Tmx and Tmn, respectively. These findings highlighted the severe consequence of climate change on the socio-economic activities in the CNE aiming for better sustainable development.
Mohamed Salem Nashwan; Shamsuddin Shahid; Eun-Sung Chung. High-Resolution Climate Projections for a Densely Populated Mediterranean Region. Sustainability 2020, 12, 3684 .
AMA StyleMohamed Salem Nashwan, Shamsuddin Shahid, Eun-Sung Chung. High-Resolution Climate Projections for a Densely Populated Mediterranean Region. Sustainability. 2020; 12 (9):3684.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMohamed Salem Nashwan; Shamsuddin Shahid; Eun-Sung Chung. 2020. "High-Resolution Climate Projections for a Densely Populated Mediterranean Region." Sustainability 12, no. 9: 3684.
The purpose of this paper is to propose a data-driven approach for preparation of Construction Labour Productivity (CLP) models from influencing labour factors. Two state-of-art machine learning-based classifiers, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Random Forest (RF) were used for modelling CLP. First, a preliminary review of previous literature was carried out to extract all CLP related factors. Subsequently, the list of CLP factors were ranked in terms of most influential in Malaysian Residential standpoint by experienced Project Managers through a pilot survey. The most influential factors identified were labour’s lack of work experience, job category, education/training, nationality, skills, age and marital status. Data was collected based on these influencing factors from all construction workers in Malaysian Residential Projects. The data collected were used to develop CLP models using SVM and RF. The performance of the models was assessed using several statistical indices including Percentage of Correct (PC), Heidke Skill Score (HSS), the Probability of Detection (POD), the False Alarm Ratio (FAR) and the Peirce skill score (PSS). The SVM and RF simulated the CLP with high accuracy. The POD for both models was found above 90% in predicting different categories of productivity. The reliability plots showed a high efficiency of the models. The results indicate that the advanced machine learning methods can be used to achieve high accuracy in prediction of CLP. The present study can also be helpful for researchers and industry practitioners to understand how machine learning methods can be employed to learn more about productivity in construction and eventually improve the standards of construction labour productivity in Malaysia.
Mohammed Hamza Momade; Shamsuddin Shahid; Mohd Rosli Bin Hainin; Mohamed Salem Nashwan; Abdulhakim Tahir Umar. Modelling labour productivity using SVM and RF: a comparative study on classifiers performance. International Journal of Construction Management 2020, 1 -11.
AMA StyleMohammed Hamza Momade, Shamsuddin Shahid, Mohd Rosli Bin Hainin, Mohamed Salem Nashwan, Abdulhakim Tahir Umar. Modelling labour productivity using SVM and RF: a comparative study on classifiers performance. International Journal of Construction Management. 2020; ():1-11.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMohammed Hamza Momade; Shamsuddin Shahid; Mohd Rosli Bin Hainin; Mohamed Salem Nashwan; Abdulhakim Tahir Umar. 2020. "Modelling labour productivity using SVM and RF: a comparative study on classifiers performance." International Journal of Construction Management , no. : 1-11.
General circulation models (GCMs), used for climate change projections, should be able to simulate both the temporal variability and spatial patterns of the observed climate. However, the selection of GCMs in most previous studies was either based on temporal variability or mean spatial pattern of past climate. In this study, a framework is proposed for the selection of GCMs based on their ability to reproduce the spatial pattern for different climate variables. The Kling‐Gupta efficiency (KGE) was used to assess GCMs ability to simulate the annual spatial patterns of maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmx, and Tmn, respectively) and rainfall depth. The mean and standard deviation of KGEs were used as performance indicators to present the GCMs’ overall skill. Finally, the global performance indicator was used as a multi‐criteria decision‐making approach to integrate the results of different climate variables and seasons in order to rank the GCMs. Egypt was considered as a case study. The results revealed the better performance, in order, of the MRI‐CGCM3, followed by FGOALS‐g2, GFDL‐ESM2G, GFDL‐CM3 and lastly MPI‐ESM‐MR over Egypt. The final set of GCMs showed a similar spatial pattern for the projected change in temperature over Egypt. For different scenarios, Tmx was projected to increase in the range of 1.63‐4.2°C while the increase in Tmn ranged between 1.28‐4.43°C. A projected increase in temperature in winter is likely greater than in summer. The selected models also projected a 62% decrease in rainfall depth over the northern coastline where rain is currently most abundant while an increase in the dry southern zones. The rise in temperature and decrease in rainfall depth could have severe implications for a country with dwindling water resources. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Mohamed Salem Nashwan; Shamsuddin Shahid. A novel framework for selecting general circulation models based on the spatial patterns of climate. International Journal of Climatology 2019, 40, 4422 -4443.
AMA StyleMohamed Salem Nashwan, Shamsuddin Shahid. A novel framework for selecting general circulation models based on the spatial patterns of climate. International Journal of Climatology. 2019; 40 (10):4422-4443.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMohamed Salem Nashwan; Shamsuddin Shahid. 2019. "A novel framework for selecting general circulation models based on the spatial patterns of climate." International Journal of Climatology 40, no. 10: 4422-4443.
High-resolution daily precipitation estimation is very important in climatological and meteorological studies in the arid regions of the world, as precipitation events in these areas can be sporadic, localized and of very high intensity. In this study, the daily performance of five, ARC2, CHIRPS v2.0, GSMaP (v. 6), TAMSAT (v. 3) and PERSIANN-CCS high resolution satellite-based gauge-corrected precipitation products were compared, and the individual performances validated against rain gauge station records in the arid region of Egypt. Seven statistical metrics (three continuous and four categorical), and selected intensity categories, were employed in the modelling of rainfall totals for the 2003 to 2018 period. In general, the results indicated poor outcomes for all the satellite-based products. CHIRPS was best at estimating rainfall of <1 mm/day; this represented 30% of wet days during the study period. ARC and GSMaP performed better in estimating rainfall events with an intensity category of ≥1 mm/day, however both produced a high number of false detections. Despite continuous improvement of TAMSAT, it recorded the worst performance among the products evaluated. The study concluded that GSMaP appeared to be the “best” to use for supporting research activities over the arid Egyptian domain given its performance relative to the other satellite-based precipitation products.
Mohamed Salem Nashwan; Shamsuddin Shahid; Ashraf Dewan; Tarmizi Ismail; Noraliani Alias. Performance of five high resolution satellite-based precipitation products in arid region of Egypt: An evaluation. Atmospheric Research 2019, 236, 104809 .
AMA StyleMohamed Salem Nashwan, Shamsuddin Shahid, Ashraf Dewan, Tarmizi Ismail, Noraliani Alias. Performance of five high resolution satellite-based precipitation products in arid region of Egypt: An evaluation. Atmospheric Research. 2019; 236 ():104809.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMohamed Salem Nashwan; Shamsuddin Shahid; Ashraf Dewan; Tarmizi Ismail; Noraliani Alias. 2019. "Performance of five high resolution satellite-based precipitation products in arid region of Egypt: An evaluation." Atmospheric Research 236, no. : 104809.
Expansion of arid lands due to climate change, particularly in water stressed regions of the world can have severe implications on the economy and people’s livelihoods. The spatiotemporal trends in aridity, the shift of land from lower to higher arid classes and the effect of this shift on different land uses in Syria have been evaluated in this study for the period 1951–2010 using high-resolution monthly climate data of the Terrestrial Hydrology Research Group of Princeton University. The trends in rainfall, temperature and potential evapotranspiration were also evaluated to understand the causes of aridity shifts. The results revealed an expansion of aridity in Syria during 1951–1980 compared to 1981–2010. About 6.21% of semi-arid land was observed to shift to arid class and 5.91% dry-subhumid land to semi-arid land between the two periods. Analysis of results revealed that the decrease in rainfall is the major cause of increasing aridity in Syria. About 28.3% of agriculture land located in the north and the northwest was found to shift from humid to dry-subhumid or dry-subhumid to semi-arid. Analysis of results revealed that the shifting of drylands mostly occurred in the northern agricultural areas of Syria. The land productivity and irrigation needs can be severely affected by increasing aridity which may affect food security and the economy of the country.
Mohammad Rajab Houmsi; Mohammed Sanusi Shiru; Mohamed Salem Nashwan; Kamal Ahmed; Ghaith Falah Ziarh; Shamsuddin Shahid; Eun-Sung Chung; Sungkon Kim. Spatial Shift of Aridity and Its Impact on Land Use of Syria. Sustainability 2019, 11, 7047 .
AMA StyleMohammad Rajab Houmsi, Mohammed Sanusi Shiru, Mohamed Salem Nashwan, Kamal Ahmed, Ghaith Falah Ziarh, Shamsuddin Shahid, Eun-Sung Chung, Sungkon Kim. Spatial Shift of Aridity and Its Impact on Land Use of Syria. Sustainability. 2019; 11 (24):7047.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMohammad Rajab Houmsi; Mohammed Sanusi Shiru; Mohamed Salem Nashwan; Kamal Ahmed; Ghaith Falah Ziarh; Shamsuddin Shahid; Eun-Sung Chung; Sungkon Kim. 2019. "Spatial Shift of Aridity and Its Impact on Land Use of Syria." Sustainability 11, no. 24: 7047.
Possible changes in rainfall extremes in Peninsular Malaysia were assessed in this study using an ensemble of four GCMs of CMIP5. The performance of four bias correction methods was compared, and the most suitable method was used for downscaling of GCM simulated daily rainfall to the spatial resolution (0.25°) of APHRODITE rainfall. The multi-model ensemble (MME) mean of the downscaled rainfall was developed using a random forest regression algorithm. The MME projected rainfall for four RCPs were compared with APHRODITE rainfall for the base year (1961–2005) to assess the annual and seasonal changes in eight extreme rainfall indices. The results showed power transformation as the most suitable bias correction method. The maximum changes in most of the annual and seasonal extreme rainfall indices were observed for RCP8.5 in the last part of this century. The maximum increase was observed for 1-day and 5 consecutive days' rainfall amount for RCP4.5. Spatial distribution of the changes revealed higher increase of the extremes in the northeast region where rainfall extremes are already very high. The increase in rainfall extremes would increase the possibility of frequent hydrological disasters in Peninsular Malaysia.
Muhammad Noor; Tarmizi Ismail; Shamsuddin Shahid; Mohamed Salem Nashwan; Shahid Ullah. Development of multi-model ensemble for projection of extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia. Hydrology Research 2019, 50, 1772 -1788.
AMA StyleMuhammad Noor, Tarmizi Ismail, Shamsuddin Shahid, Mohamed Salem Nashwan, Shahid Ullah. Development of multi-model ensemble for projection of extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia. Hydrology Research. 2019; 50 (6):1772-1788.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMuhammad Noor; Tarmizi Ismail; Shamsuddin Shahid; Mohamed Salem Nashwan; Shahid Ullah. 2019. "Development of multi-model ensemble for projection of extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia." Hydrology Research 50, no. 6: 1772-1788.
Water is gradually becoming scarce in Afghanistan like in many other regions of the globe. The objective of this study was to evaluate the spatial changes in the availability and sustainability of water resources in Afghanistan. The Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) data of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite obtained from three different institutes, having 1° × 1° spatial resolution for the period 2002–2016 was used for this purpose. Sen’s slope method was used to assess the rate of change, and the Modified Mann–Kendall test was used for the evaluation of the significance of trends in TWS. After, the concept of reliability–resiliency–vulnerability (RRV) was used for assessing the spatial distribution of sustainability in water resources. The results revealed a significant decrease in water availability in the country over the last 15 years. The decrease was found to be highest in the central region where most of the population of the country resides. The reliability in water resources was found high in the northeast Himalayan region and low in the southwest desert; resilience was found low in the central region, while vulnerability was found high in the south and the southeast. Overall, the water resources of the country were found most sustainable in the northeast and southwest and least in the south and the central parts. The maps of water resource sustainability and the changes in water availability produced in the present study can be used for long-term planning of water resources for adaptation to global changes. Besides, those can be used for the management of water resources in a sustainable and judicious manner.
Mohammad Naser Sediqi; Mohammed Sanusi Shiru; Mohamed Salem Nashwan; Rawshan Ali; Shadan Abubaker; Xiaojun Wang; Kamal Ahmed; Shamsuddin Shahid; Asaduzzaman; Sayed Mir Agha Manawi. Spatio-Temporal Pattern in the Changes in Availability and Sustainability of Water Resources in Afghanistan. Sustainability 2019, 11, 5836 .
AMA StyleMohammad Naser Sediqi, Mohammed Sanusi Shiru, Mohamed Salem Nashwan, Rawshan Ali, Shadan Abubaker, Xiaojun Wang, Kamal Ahmed, Shamsuddin Shahid, Asaduzzaman, Sayed Mir Agha Manawi. Spatio-Temporal Pattern in the Changes in Availability and Sustainability of Water Resources in Afghanistan. Sustainability. 2019; 11 (20):5836.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMohammad Naser Sediqi; Mohammed Sanusi Shiru; Mohamed Salem Nashwan; Rawshan Ali; Shadan Abubaker; Xiaojun Wang; Kamal Ahmed; Shamsuddin Shahid; Asaduzzaman; Sayed Mir Agha Manawi. 2019. "Spatio-Temporal Pattern in the Changes in Availability and Sustainability of Water Resources in Afghanistan." Sustainability 11, no. 20: 5836.
This study assesses the water resources and environmental challenges of Lagos mega city, Nigeria, in the context of climate change. Being a commercial hub, the Lagos population has grown rapidly causing an insurmountable water and environmental crisis. In this study, a combined field observation, sample analysis, and interviews were used to assess water challenges. Observed climate, general circulation model (GCM) projections and groundwater data were used to assess water challenges due to climate change. The study revealed that unavailability of sufficient water supply provision in Lagos has overwhelmingly compelled the population to depend on groundwater, which has eventually caused groundwater overdraft. Salt water intrusion and subsidence has occurred due to groundwater overexploitation. High concentrations of heavy metals were observed in wells around a landfill. Climate projections showed a decrease in rainfall of up to 140 mm and an increase in temperature of up to 8 °C. Groundwater storage is projected to decrease after the mid-century due to climate change. Sea level rise will continue until the end of the century. As the water and environmental challenges of Lagos are broad and the changing characteristics of the climate are expected to intensify these as projected, tackling these challenges requires a holistic approach from an integrated water resources management perspective.
Mohammed Sanusi Shiru; Shamsuddin Shahid; Suleiman Shiru; Eun Sung Chung; Noraliani Alias; Kamal Ahmed; Emmanuel Chukwuka Dioha; Zulfaqar Sa'Adi; Saleem Salman; Muhammad Noor; Mohamed Salem Nashwan; Mohd Khairul Idlan; Najeebullah Khan; Mohammed Hamza Momade; Muhammad Rajab Houmsi; Zafar Iqbal; Qutbudin Ishanch; Mohammad Naser Sediqi. Challenges in water resources of Lagos mega city of Nigeria in the context of climate change. Journal of Water and Climate Change 2019, 11, 1067 -1083.
AMA StyleMohammed Sanusi Shiru, Shamsuddin Shahid, Suleiman Shiru, Eun Sung Chung, Noraliani Alias, Kamal Ahmed, Emmanuel Chukwuka Dioha, Zulfaqar Sa'Adi, Saleem Salman, Muhammad Noor, Mohamed Salem Nashwan, Mohd Khairul Idlan, Najeebullah Khan, Mohammed Hamza Momade, Muhammad Rajab Houmsi, Zafar Iqbal, Qutbudin Ishanch, Mohammad Naser Sediqi. Challenges in water resources of Lagos mega city of Nigeria in the context of climate change. Journal of Water and Climate Change. 2019; 11 (4):1067-1083.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMohammed Sanusi Shiru; Shamsuddin Shahid; Suleiman Shiru; Eun Sung Chung; Noraliani Alias; Kamal Ahmed; Emmanuel Chukwuka Dioha; Zulfaqar Sa'Adi; Saleem Salman; Muhammad Noor; Mohamed Salem Nashwan; Mohd Khairul Idlan; Najeebullah Khan; Mohammed Hamza Momade; Muhammad Rajab Houmsi; Zafar Iqbal; Qutbudin Ishanch; Mohammad Naser Sediqi. 2019. "Challenges in water resources of Lagos mega city of Nigeria in the context of climate change." Journal of Water and Climate Change 11, no. 4: 1067-1083.
Selection of appropriate empirical reference evapotranspiration (ETo) estimation models is very important for the management of agriculture, water resources, and environment. Statistical metrics generally used for performance assessment of empirical ETo models, on a station level, often give contradictory results, which make the ranking of methods a challenging task. Besides, the ranking of ETo estimation methods for a given study area based on the rank at different stations is also a difficult task. Compromise programming and group decision-making methods have been proposed in this study for the ranking of 31 empirical ETo models for Peninsular Malaysia based on four standard statistical metrics. The result revealed the Penman-Monteith as the most suitable method of estimation of ETo, followed by radiation-based Priestley and Taylor and the mass transfer-based Dalton and Meyer methods. Among the temperature-based methods, Ivanov was found the best. The methodology suggested in this study can be adopted in any other region for an easy but robust evaluation of empirical ETo models.
Mohd Khairul Idlan Muhammad; Mohamed Nashwan; Shamsuddin Shahid; Tarmizi Ismail; Young Song; Eun-Sung Chung. Evaluation of Empirical Reference Evapotranspiration Models Using Compromise Programming: A Case Study of Peninsular Malaysia. Sustainability 2019, 11, 4267 .
AMA StyleMohd Khairul Idlan Muhammad, Mohamed Nashwan, Shamsuddin Shahid, Tarmizi Ismail, Young Song, Eun-Sung Chung. Evaluation of Empirical Reference Evapotranspiration Models Using Compromise Programming: A Case Study of Peninsular Malaysia. Sustainability. 2019; 11 (16):4267.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMohd Khairul Idlan Muhammad; Mohamed Nashwan; Shamsuddin Shahid; Tarmizi Ismail; Young Song; Eun-Sung Chung. 2019. "Evaluation of Empirical Reference Evapotranspiration Models Using Compromise Programming: A Case Study of Peninsular Malaysia." Sustainability 11, no. 16: 4267.
This study developed 0.05° × 0.05° land-only datasets of daily maximum and minimum temperatures in the densely populated Central North region of Egypt (CNE) for the period 1981–2017. Existing coarse-resolution datasets were evaluated to find the best dataset for the study area to use as a base of the new datasets. The Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) global temperature dataset was found to be the best. The CPC data were interpolated to a spatial resolution of 0.05° latitude/longitude using linear interpolation technique considering the flat topography of the study area. The robust kernel density distribution mapping method was used to correct the bias using observations, and WorldClim v.2 temperature climatology was used to adjust the spatial variability in temperature. The validation of CNE datasets using probability density function skill score and hot and cold extremes tail skill scores showed remarkable improvement in replicating the spatial and temporal variability in observed temperature. Because CNE datasets are the best available high-resolution estimate of daily temperatures, they will be beneficial for climatic and hydrological studies. Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data (ISA-Tab format)
Mohamed Salem Nashwan; Shamsuddin Shahid; Eun-Sung Chung. Development of high-resolution daily gridded temperature datasets for the central north region of Egypt. Scientific Data 2019, 6, 1 -13.
AMA StyleMohamed Salem Nashwan, Shamsuddin Shahid, Eun-Sung Chung. Development of high-resolution daily gridded temperature datasets for the central north region of Egypt. Scientific Data. 2019; 6 (1):1-13.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMohamed Salem Nashwan; Shamsuddin Shahid; Eun-Sung Chung. 2019. "Development of high-resolution daily gridded temperature datasets for the central north region of Egypt." Scientific Data 6, no. 1: 1-13.
Selection of appropriate gridded rainfall and temperature data is a key problem for hydro-climatic studies, particularly in regions where long-term reliable and dense observations are not available. The ability of two intelligent algorithms, symmetrical uncertainty (SU) and random forest (RF), to assess the degree of similarity or the distance between two time series was utilized in this study for the evaluation of gridded climate data. In this study, the performances of seven widely used gridded rainfall datasets and five temperature datasets were evaluated against the available station data in Egypt. Monthly rainfall and mean temperature data recorded at 57 locations for the period 1979–2014 were used for this purpose. The results revealed the better performance of Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) gridded rainfall and University of Delaware (Udel) gridded temperature data in replicating observed rainfall and mean temperature, respectively, in most of the locations in Egypt. Validation of the results using conventional statistical metrics revealed the better performance of different datasets in term of different metrics at different locations. However, the mean values of all the metrics support the results obtained using SU and RF. The study indicates that SU and RF can be used for the selection of appropriate gridded rainfall and temperature data by avoiding confusion arise from contradictory results obtained using various statistical metrics.
Mohamed Salem Nashwan; Shamsuddin Shahid. Symmetrical uncertainty and random forest for the evaluation of gridded precipitation and temperature data. Atmospheric Research 2019, 230, 104632 .
AMA StyleMohamed Salem Nashwan, Shamsuddin Shahid. Symmetrical uncertainty and random forest for the evaluation of gridded precipitation and temperature data. Atmospheric Research. 2019; 230 ():104632.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMohamed Salem Nashwan; Shamsuddin Shahid. 2019. "Symmetrical uncertainty and random forest for the evaluation of gridded precipitation and temperature data." Atmospheric Research 230, no. : 104632.
Construction Labour Productivity (CLP) is important to the construction industry as it has a direct impact on the competitiveness of small and medium enterprises. This article’s purpose is to review the research carried out to date on identification of the factors related to CLP. A thorough literature review was conducted with all available scientific databases and a total of 88 papers were shortlisted with the keywords ‘Construction Labour Productivity’. The articles were thoroughly reviewed to identify the factors related to CLP and rank them according to their importance mentioned in different studies using Jenks classification method. The importance of CLP factors according to geographic regions was also identified. The methods used for CLP estimation from the factors are briefly discussed and finally, the recommendations for the improvement of CLP made by researchers are summarized. The finding of the study will help in understanding the directions required for better management of CLP in different geographical regions.
Mohammed Hamza; Shamsuddin Shahid; Mohd Rosli Bin Hainin; Mohamed Salem Nashwan. Construction labour productivity: review of factors identified. International Journal of Construction Management 2019, 1 -13.
AMA StyleMohammed Hamza, Shamsuddin Shahid, Mohd Rosli Bin Hainin, Mohamed Salem Nashwan. Construction labour productivity: review of factors identified. International Journal of Construction Management. 2019; ():1-13.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMohammed Hamza; Shamsuddin Shahid; Mohd Rosli Bin Hainin; Mohamed Salem Nashwan. 2019. "Construction labour productivity: review of factors identified." International Journal of Construction Management , no. : 1-13.
The performance of three satellite-based high-resolution gridded rainfall datasets, namely the gauge corrected Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP), Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG), and the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) in the hot desert climate of Egypt were assessed. Seven statistical indices including four categorical indices were used to assess the capability of the products in estimating the daily rainfall amounts and detecting the occurrences of rainfall under different intensity classes from March 2014 to May 2018. Although the products were gauge-corrected, none of them showed a consistent performance, and thus could not be titled as the best or worst performing product over Egypt. The CHIRPS was found to be the best product in estimating rainfall amounts when all rainfall events were considered and IMERG was found as the worst. However, IMERG was better at detecting the occurrence of rainfall than CHIRPS. For heavy rainfall events, IMERG was better at the majority of the stations in terms of the Kling–Gupta efficiency index (−0.34) and skill-score (0.33). The IMERG was able to show the spatial variability of rainfall during the recent big flash flood event that hit Northern Egypt. The study indicates that accurate estimation of rainfall in the hot desert climate using satellite sensors remains a challenge.
Mohamed Salem Nashwan; Shamsuddin Shahid; Xiaojun Wang. Assessment of Satellite-Based Precipitation Measurement Products over the Hot Desert Climate of Egypt. Remote Sensing 2019, 11, 555 .
AMA StyleMohamed Salem Nashwan, Shamsuddin Shahid, Xiaojun Wang. Assessment of Satellite-Based Precipitation Measurement Products over the Hot Desert Climate of Egypt. Remote Sensing. 2019; 11 (5):555.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMohamed Salem Nashwan; Shamsuddin Shahid; Xiaojun Wang. 2019. "Assessment of Satellite-Based Precipitation Measurement Products over the Hot Desert Climate of Egypt." Remote Sensing 11, no. 5: 555.
This study assessed the uncertainty in the spatial pattern of rainfall trends in six widely used monthly gridded rainfall datasets for 1979–2010. Bangladesh is considered as the case study area where changes in rainfall are the highest concern due to global warming-induced climate change. The evaluation was based on the ability of the gridded data to estimate the spatial patterns of the magnitude and significance of annual and seasonal rainfall trends estimated using Mann–Kendall (MK) and modified MK (mMK) tests at 34 gauges. A set of statistical indices including Kling–Gupta efficiency, modified index of agreement (md), skill score (SS), and Jaccard similarity index (JSI) were used. The results showed a large variation in the spatial patterns of rainfall trends obtained using different gridded datasets. Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) data was found to be the most suitable rainfall data for the assessment of annual and seasonal rainfall trends in Bangladesh which showed a JSI, md, and SS of 22%, 0.61, and 0.73, respectively, when compared with the observed annual trend. Assessment of long-term trend in rainfall (1901–2017) using mMK test revealed no change in annual rainfall and changes in seasonal rainfall only at a few grid points in Bangladesh over the last century.
Mohamed Salem Nashwan; Shamsuddin Shahid; Xiaojun Wang. Uncertainty in Estimated Trends Using Gridded Rainfall Data: A Case Study of Bangladesh. Water 2019, 11, 349 .
AMA StyleMohamed Salem Nashwan, Shamsuddin Shahid, Xiaojun Wang. Uncertainty in Estimated Trends Using Gridded Rainfall Data: A Case Study of Bangladesh. Water. 2019; 11 (2):349.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMohamed Salem Nashwan; Shamsuddin Shahid; Xiaojun Wang. 2019. "Uncertainty in Estimated Trends Using Gridded Rainfall Data: A Case Study of Bangladesh." Water 11, no. 2: 349.
The recent finding of the influence of long-term persistence (LTP) in time series on trend significance has made the past findings of climatic trends in the Nile river basin (NRB) disputable. Four versions of the Mann-Kendall test including the latest one which considers the LTP in time series have been used in this study to distinguish the unidirectional trend from natural variability of climate in NRB. The gridded Princeton global meteorological forcing data having 1-day and 0.25° temporal and spatial resolution, respectively, for the available period 1948–2010 was used. The results showed that the number of grid points showing a significant change in climate and weather extremes reduced drastically when LTP in time series was considered. The annual rainfall was increasing only at some locations in the main Nile and Atbara sub-basins at a rate of 0.26–26.4 mm/decade while decreasing in Sobat sub-basin up to − 76.6 mm/decade. The maximum temperatures were increasing in the main Nile, Atbara, Blue Nile, Bahr Elgazal, and Bahr Eljabel at a rate of 0.09–0.48 °C/decade, while the minimum temperatures were increasing in most parts of the NRB by 0.17–0.50 °C/decade. Among the weather extremes, a significant trend over a large part of NRB was found for extreme rainfall days (− 0.53–0.75 day/decade), cold nights (− 6.05–3.26 days/decade), heat waves (0.29–2.00 days/decade), and cold waves (− 4.05–1.15 day/decade).
Mohamed Salem Nashwan; Shamsuddin Shahid. Spatial distribution of unidirectional trends in climate and weather extremes in Nile river basin. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 2018, 137, 1181 -1199.
AMA StyleMohamed Salem Nashwan, Shamsuddin Shahid. Spatial distribution of unidirectional trends in climate and weather extremes in Nile river basin. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 2018; 137 (1-2):1181-1199.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMohamed Salem Nashwan; Shamsuddin Shahid. 2018. "Spatial distribution of unidirectional trends in climate and weather extremes in Nile river basin." Theoretical and Applied Climatology 137, no. 1-2: 1181-1199.