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Anticipating changes in hydrologic variables is essential for making socioeconomic water resource decisions. This study aims to assess the potential impact of land use and climate change on the hydrologic processes of a primarily rain‐fed, agriculturally based watershed in Missouri. A detailed evaluation was performed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool for the near future (2020–2039) and mid‐century (2040–2059). Land use scenarios were mapped using the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects model. Ensemble results, based on 19 climate models, indicated a temperature increase of about 1.0°C in near future and 2.0°C in mid‐century. Combined climate and land use change scenarios showed distinct annual and seasonal hydrologic variations. Annual precipitation was projected to increase from 6% to 7%, which resulted in 14% more spring days with soil water content equal to or exceeding field capacity in mid‐century. However, summer precipitation was projected to decrease, a critical factor for crop growth. Higher temperatures led to increased potential evapotranspiration during the growing season. Combined with changes in precipitation patterns, this resulted in an increased need for irrigation by 38 mm representing a 10% increase in total irrigation water use. Analysis from multiple land use scenarios indicated converting agriculture to forest land can potentially mitigate the effects of climate change on streamflow, thus ensuring future water availability.
Quang A. Phung; Allen L. Thompson; Claire Baffaut; Christine Costello; E. John Sadler; Bohumil M. Svoma; Anthony Lupo; Sagar Gautam. Climate and Land Use Effects on Hydrologic Processes in a Primarily Rain‐Fed, Agricultural Watershed. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association 2019, 55, 1196 -1215.
AMA StyleQuang A. Phung, Allen L. Thompson, Claire Baffaut, Christine Costello, E. John Sadler, Bohumil M. Svoma, Anthony Lupo, Sagar Gautam. Climate and Land Use Effects on Hydrologic Processes in a Primarily Rain‐Fed, Agricultural Watershed. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association. 2019; 55 (5):1196-1215.
Chicago/Turabian StyleQuang A. Phung; Allen L. Thompson; Claire Baffaut; Christine Costello; E. John Sadler; Bohumil M. Svoma; Anthony Lupo; Sagar Gautam. 2019. "Climate and Land Use Effects on Hydrologic Processes in a Primarily Rain‐Fed, Agricultural Watershed." JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association 55, no. 5: 1196-1215.
Potential impacts of climate change on the hydrological components of the Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed were assessed using climate datasets from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Historical and future ensembles of downscaled precipitation and temperature, and modeled water yield, surface runoff, and evapotranspiration, were compared. Ensemble SWAT results indicate increased springtime precipitation, water yield, surface runoff and a shift in evapotranspiration peak one month earlier in the future. To evaluate the performance of model spatial resolution, gridded surface runoff estimated by Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed Land (LPJmL) and Jena Diversity-Dynamic Global Vegetation model (JeDi-DGVM) were compared to SWAT. Long-term comparison shows a 6–8% higher average annual runoff prediction for LPJmL, and a 5–30% lower prediction for JeDi-DGVM, compared to SWAT. Although annual runoff showed little change for LPJmL, monthly runoff projection under-predicted peak runoff and over-predicted low runoff for LPJmL compared to SWAT. The reasons for these differences include differences in spatial resolution of model inputs and mathematical representation of the physical processes. Results indicate benefits of impact assessments at local scales with heterogeneous sets of parameters to adequately represent extreme conditions that are muted in global gridded model studies by spatial averaging over large study domains.
Sagar Gautam; Christine Costello; Claire Baffaut; Allen Thompson; Bohumil M. Svoma; Quang A. Phung; Edward J. Sadler. Assessing Long-Term Hydrological Impact of Climate Change Using an Ensemble Approach and Comparison with Global Gridded Model-A Case Study on Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed. Water 2018, 10, 564 .
AMA StyleSagar Gautam, Christine Costello, Claire Baffaut, Allen Thompson, Bohumil M. Svoma, Quang A. Phung, Edward J. Sadler. Assessing Long-Term Hydrological Impact of Climate Change Using an Ensemble Approach and Comparison with Global Gridded Model-A Case Study on Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed. Water. 2018; 10 (5):564.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSagar Gautam; Christine Costello; Claire Baffaut; Allen Thompson; Bohumil M. Svoma; Quang A. Phung; Edward J. Sadler. 2018. "Assessing Long-Term Hydrological Impact of Climate Change Using an Ensemble Approach and Comparison with Global Gridded Model-A Case Study on Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed." Water 10, no. 5: 564.
Alexander K. Killion; Kelley Sterle; Emily N. Bondank; Jillian R. Drabik; Abhinandan Bera; Sara Alian; Kristen A. Goodrich; Marcia Hale; Rachel A. Myer; Quang Phung; Aaron M. Shew; Anastasia W. Thayer. Preparing the next generation of sustainability scientists. Ecology and Society 2018, 23, 1 .
AMA StyleAlexander K. Killion, Kelley Sterle, Emily N. Bondank, Jillian R. Drabik, Abhinandan Bera, Sara Alian, Kristen A. Goodrich, Marcia Hale, Rachel A. Myer, Quang Phung, Aaron M. Shew, Anastasia W. Thayer. Preparing the next generation of sustainability scientists. Ecology and Society. 2018; 23 (4):1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAlexander K. Killion; Kelley Sterle; Emily N. Bondank; Jillian R. Drabik; Abhinandan Bera; Sara Alian; Kristen A. Goodrich; Marcia Hale; Rachel A. Myer; Quang Phung; Aaron M. Shew; Anastasia W. Thayer. 2018. "Preparing the next generation of sustainability scientists." Ecology and Society 23, no. 4: 1.