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Nina Zarrineh
Agroscope, Agroecology and Environment Division, Reckenholzstrasse 191, CH-8046 Zürich, Switzerland; Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Hochschulstrasse 4, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland

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Journal article
Published: 22 November 2019 in Science of The Total Environment
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Climate change can affect the provision of ecosystem services in various ways. In this study, we provide an integrated assessment of climate change impacts on ecosystem services, considering uncertainties in both climate projection and model parametrization. The SWAT model was used to evaluate the impacts on water regulation, freshwater, food, and erosion regulation services for the Broye catchment in Western Switzerland. Downscaled EURO-CORDEX projections were used for three periods of thirty years: base climate (1986-2015), near future (2028-2057), and far future (2070-2099). Results reveal that in the far future, low flow is likely to decrease in summer by 77% and increase in winter by 65%, while peak flow may decrease in summer by 19% and increase in winter by 26%. Reduction in summer precipitation reduces nitrate leaching by 25%; however, nitrate concentrations are projected to increase by 14% due to reduced dilution. An increase in winter precipitation increases nitrate leaching by 44%, leading to an increase of nitrate concentration by 11% despite increasing discharge and dilution. Yields of maize and winter wheat are projected to increase in the near future but decrease in the far future because of increasing water and nutrient stress. Average grassland productivity is projected to benefit from climate change in both future periods due to the extended growing season. This increase in productivity benefits erosion regulation as better soil cover helps to decrease soil loss in winter by 5% in the far future. We conclude that water regulation, freshwater and food services will be negatively affected by climate change. Hence, agricultural management needs to be adapted to reduce negative impacts of climate change on ecosystem services and to utilize emerging production potentials. Our findings highlight the need for further studies of potentials to improve nutrient and water management under future climate conditions.

ACS Style

Nina Zarrineh; Karim C. Abbaspour; Annelie Holzkämper. Integrated assessment of climate change impacts on multiple ecosystem services in Western Switzerland. Science of The Total Environment 2019, 708, 135212 .

AMA Style

Nina Zarrineh, Karim C. Abbaspour, Annelie Holzkämper. Integrated assessment of climate change impacts on multiple ecosystem services in Western Switzerland. Science of The Total Environment. 2019; 708 ():135212.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Nina Zarrineh; Karim C. Abbaspour; Annelie Holzkämper. 2019. "Integrated assessment of climate change impacts on multiple ecosystem services in Western Switzerland." Science of The Total Environment 708, no. : 135212.

Journal article
Published: 09 April 2019 in Journal of Environmental Management
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Empirical research on land sharing and land sparing has been criticized because preferences of local stakeholders, socio-economic aspects, a bundle of ecosystem services and the local context were only rarely integrated. Using storylines and scenarios is a common approach to include land use drivers and local contexts or to cope with the uncertainties of future developments. The objective of the presented research is to develop comparable participatory regional land use scenarios for the year 2030 reflecting land sharing, land sparing and more intermediate developments across five different European landscapes (Austria, Germany, Switzerland, The Netherlands and Spain). In order to ensure methodological consistency among the five case studies, a hierarchical multi-scale scenario approach was developed, which consisted of i) the selection of a common global storyline to frame a common sphere of uncertainty for all case studies, ii) the definition of three contrasting qualitative European storylines (representing developments for land sharing, land sparing and a balanced storyline), and iii) the development of three explorative case study-specific land use scenarios with regional stakeholders in workshops. Land use transition rules defined by stakeholders were used to generate three different spatially-explicit scenarios for each case study by means of high-resolution land use maps. All scenarios incorporated various aspects of land use and management to allow subsequent quantification of multiple ecosystem services and biodiversity indicators. The comparison of the final scenarios showed both common as well as diverging trends among the case studies. For instance, stakeholders identified further possibilities to intensify land management in all case studies in the land sparing scenario. In addition, in most case studies stakeholders agreed on the most preferred scenario, i.e. either land sharing or balanced, and the most likely one, i.e. balanced. However, they expressed some skepticism regarding the general plausibility of land sparing in a European context. It can be concluded that stakeholder perceptions and the local context can be integrated in land sharing and land sparing contexts subject to particular process design principles.

ACS Style

Katrin Karner; Anna F. Cord; Nina Hagemann; Nuria Hernandez-Mora; Annelie Holzkämper; Bernard Jeangros; Nele Lienhoop; Heike Nitsch; David Rivas; Erwin Schmid; Nynke Schulp; Michael Strauch; Emma H. van der Zanden; Martin Volk; Barbara Willaarts; Nina Zarrineh; Martin Schönhart. Developing stakeholder-driven scenarios on land sharing and land sparing – Insights from five European case studies. Journal of Environmental Management 2019, 241, 488 -500.

AMA Style

Katrin Karner, Anna F. Cord, Nina Hagemann, Nuria Hernandez-Mora, Annelie Holzkämper, Bernard Jeangros, Nele Lienhoop, Heike Nitsch, David Rivas, Erwin Schmid, Nynke Schulp, Michael Strauch, Emma H. van der Zanden, Martin Volk, Barbara Willaarts, Nina Zarrineh, Martin Schönhart. Developing stakeholder-driven scenarios on land sharing and land sparing – Insights from five European case studies. Journal of Environmental Management. 2019; 241 ():488-500.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Katrin Karner; Anna F. Cord; Nina Hagemann; Nuria Hernandez-Mora; Annelie Holzkämper; Bernard Jeangros; Nele Lienhoop; Heike Nitsch; David Rivas; Erwin Schmid; Nynke Schulp; Michael Strauch; Emma H. van der Zanden; Martin Volk; Barbara Willaarts; Nina Zarrineh; Martin Schönhart. 2019. "Developing stakeholder-driven scenarios on land sharing and land sparing – Insights from five European case studies." Journal of Environmental Management 241, no. : 488-500.

Journal article
Published: 23 October 2018 in Sustainability
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In agroecosystem management, conflicts between various services such as food provision and nutrient regulation are common. This study examined the trade-offs between selected ecosystem services such as food provision, water quantity and quality, erosion and climate regulations in an agricultural catchment in Western Switzerland. The aim was to explore the existing land use conflicts by a shift in land use and management strategy following two stakeholder-defined scenarios based on either land sparing or land sharing concepts. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to build an agro-hydrologic model of the region, which was calibrated and validated based on daily river discharge, monthly nitrate and annual crop yield, considering uncertainties associated with land management set up and model parameterization. The results show that land sparing scenario has the highest agricultural benefit, while also the highest nitrate concentration and GHG emissions. The land sharing scenario improves water quality and climate regulation services and reduces food provision. The management changes considered in the two land use scenarios did not seem to reduce the conflict but only led to a shift in trade-offs. Water quantity and erosion regulation remain unaffected by the two scenarios.

ACS Style

Nina Zarrineh; Karim Abbaspour; Ann Van Griensven; Bernard Jeangros; Annelie Holzkämper. Model-Based Evaluation of Land Management Strategies with Regard to Multiple Ecosystem Services. Sustainability 2018, 10, 3844 .

AMA Style

Nina Zarrineh, Karim Abbaspour, Ann Van Griensven, Bernard Jeangros, Annelie Holzkämper. Model-Based Evaluation of Land Management Strategies with Regard to Multiple Ecosystem Services. Sustainability. 2018; 10 (11):3844.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Nina Zarrineh; Karim Abbaspour; Ann Van Griensven; Bernard Jeangros; Annelie Holzkämper. 2018. "Model-Based Evaluation of Land Management Strategies with Regard to Multiple Ecosystem Services." Sustainability 10, no. 11: 3844.