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Realistic 3D hazard visualizations based on advanced Geographic Information Systems (GIS) may be directly driven by hydrodynamic and wind model outputs (e.g., ADCIRC, the ADvanced CIRCulation Model) and hazard impact modeling (e.g., predicting damage to structures and infrastructure). These methods create new possibilities for representing hazard impacts and support the development of near-real-time hazard forecasting and communication tools. This paper considers the wider implications of using these storm visualizations in light of current frameworks in the context of landscape and urban planning and cartography that have addressed the use of realistic 3D visualizations. Visualizations used outside of engagement processes organized by experts risk misleading the public and may have consequences in terms of feelings of individual self-efficacy or perception of scientists behind the visualizations. In addition to summarizing the implications of using these visualizations outside of recommended practices, a research agenda is proposed to guide the development of real-time realistic and semi-realistic visualizations for future use in hazard communication. Development of a clearer use-case for real-time visualization capabilities is an essential first step if such work is to continue.
Peter Stempel; Austin Becker. Visualizations Out of Context: Addressing Pitfalls of Real-Time Realistic Hazard Visualizations. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 2019, 8, 318 .
AMA StylePeter Stempel, Austin Becker. Visualizations Out of Context: Addressing Pitfalls of Real-Time Realistic Hazard Visualizations. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information. 2019; 8 (8):318.
Chicago/Turabian StylePeter Stempel; Austin Becker. 2019. "Visualizations Out of Context: Addressing Pitfalls of Real-Time Realistic Hazard Visualizations." ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 8, no. 8: 318.
The southern New England coast of the United States is particularly vulnerable to land-falling hurricanes because of its east-west orientation. The impact of two major hurricanes on the city of Providence (Rhode Island, USA) during the middle decades of the 20th century spurred the construction of the Fox Point Hurricane Barrier (FPHB) to protect the city from storm surge flooding. Although the Rhode Island/Narragansett Bay area has not experienced a major hurricane for several decades, increased coastal development along with potentially increased hurricane activity associated with climate change motivates an assessment of the impacts of a major hurricane on the region. The ocean/estuary response to an extreme hurricane is simulated using a high-resolution implementation of the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model coupled to the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). The storm surge response in ADCIRC is first verified with a simulation of a historical hurricane that made landfall in southern New England. The storm surge and the hydrological models are then forced with winds and rainfall from a hypothetical hurricane dubbed “Rhody”, which has many of the characteristics of historical storms that have impacted the region. Rhody makes landfall just west of Narragansett Bay, and after passing north of the Bay, executes a loop to the east and the south before making a second landfall. Results are presented for three versions of Rhody, varying in the maximum wind speed at landfall. The storm surge resulting from the strongest Rhody version (weak Saffir–Simpson category five) during the first landfall exceeds 7 m in height in Providence at the north end of the Bay. This exceeds the height of the FPHB, resulting in flooding in Providence. A simulation including river inflow computed from the runoff model indicates that if the Barrier remains closed and its pumps fail (for example, because of a power outage or equipment failure), severe flooding occurs north of the FPHB due to impoundment of the river inflow. These results show that northern Narragansett Bay could be particularly vulnerable to both storm surge and rainfall-driven flooding, especially if the FPHB suffers a power outage. They also demonstrate that, for wind-driven storm surge alone under present sea level conditions, the FPHB will protect Providence for hurricanes less intense than category five.
David S. Ullman; Isaac Ginis; Wenrui Huang; Catherine Nowakowski; Xuanyu Chen; Peter Stempel. Assessing the Multiple Impacts of Extreme Hurricanes in Southern New England, USA. Geosciences 2019, 9, 265 .
AMA StyleDavid S. Ullman, Isaac Ginis, Wenrui Huang, Catherine Nowakowski, Xuanyu Chen, Peter Stempel. Assessing the Multiple Impacts of Extreme Hurricanes in Southern New England, USA. Geosciences. 2019; 9 (6):265.
Chicago/Turabian StyleDavid S. Ullman; Isaac Ginis; Wenrui Huang; Catherine Nowakowski; Xuanyu Chen; Peter Stempel. 2019. "Assessing the Multiple Impacts of Extreme Hurricanes in Southern New England, USA." Geosciences 9, no. 6: 265.
Emergency managers face challenges in understanding and communicating potential hurricane hazards. Preparedness typically emphasizes the last event encountered, the potential implications of future hazards may thus be underestimated. Risk assessment models (e.g., basic HAZUS) that emphasize accumulated damages in economic terms do not provide actionable data regarding specific local concerns, such as access by emergency vehicles and potential communications disruptions. Qualitative methods conventionally used to identify these concerns, however, lack the specificity necessary to incorporate the managers’ knowledge into hazard models (e.g., highly exact geographic location of the vulnerability or cascading consequences). This research develops a method to collect rich, actionable, qualitative data from critical facility managers that can be utilized in combination with hydrodynamic, wind, and precipitation models to assess potential hazard consequences. A pilot study was conducted with critical facility managers in Westerly, RI, United States, using semi-structured interviews and participatory mapping. Interview methods were based on existing practices for vulnerability assessments, and further augmented to obtain data based on hurricane modeling requirements. This research identifies challenges and recommendations when collecting critical facility manager’s knowledge for incorporation into storm simulations. The method described enables local experts to contribute actionable knowledge to natural hazard models and augment more traditional engineering-based approaches to risk assessment.
Robert Witkop; Austin Becker; Peter Stempel; Isaac Ginis. Developing Consequence Thresholds for Storm Models Through Participatory Processes: Case Study of Westerly Rhode Island. Frontiers in Earth Science 2019, 7, 1 .
AMA StyleRobert Witkop, Austin Becker, Peter Stempel, Isaac Ginis. Developing Consequence Thresholds for Storm Models Through Participatory Processes: Case Study of Westerly Rhode Island. Frontiers in Earth Science. 2019; 7 ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRobert Witkop; Austin Becker; Peter Stempel; Isaac Ginis. 2019. "Developing Consequence Thresholds for Storm Models Through Participatory Processes: Case Study of Westerly Rhode Island." Frontiers in Earth Science 7, no. : 1.
The potential of using ADvanced CIRCulation model (ADCIRC) to assess the time incremented progression of hazard impacts on individual critical facilities has long been recognized but is not well described. As ADCIRC is applied to create granular impact models, the lack of transparency in the methods is problematic. It becomes difficult to evaluate the entire system in situations where modeling integrates different types of data (e.g., hydrodynamic and existing geospatial point data) and involves multiple disciplines and stakeholders. When considering increased interest in combining hydrodynamic models, existing geospatial information, and advanced visualizations it is necessary to increase transparency and identify the pitfalls that arise out of this integration (e.g., the inadequacy of data to support the resolution of proposed outputs). This paper thus describes an all numerical method to accomplish this integration. It provides an overview of the generation of the hydrodynamic model, describes the all numerical method utilized to model hazard impacts, identifies pitfalls that arise from the integration of existing geospatial data with the hydrodynamic model, and describes an approach to developing a credible basis for determining impacts at a granular scale. The paper concludes by reflecting on the implementation of these methods as part of a Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Integrated Emergency Management Training Course (IEMC) and identifies the need to further study the effects of integrated models and visualizations on risk perception.
Peter Stempel; Isaac Ginis; David Ullman; Austin Becker; Robert Witkop. Real-Time Chronological Hazard Impact Modeling. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 2018, 6, 134 .
AMA StylePeter Stempel, Isaac Ginis, David Ullman, Austin Becker, Robert Witkop. Real-Time Chronological Hazard Impact Modeling. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering. 2018; 6 (4):134.
Chicago/Turabian StylePeter Stempel; Isaac Ginis; David Ullman; Austin Becker; Robert Witkop. 2018. "Real-Time Chronological Hazard Impact Modeling." Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 6, no. 4: 134.
One of the challenges facing coastal zone managers and municipal planners is the development of an objective, quantitative assessment of the risk to structures, infrastructure, and public safety that coastal communities face from storm surge in the presence of changing climatic conditions, particularly sea level rise and coastal erosion. Here we use state of the art modeling tool (ADCIRC and STWAVE) to predict storm surge and wave, combined with shoreline change maps (erosion), and damage functions to construct a Coastal Environmental Risk Index (CERI). Access to the state emergency data base (E-911) provides information on structure characteristics and the ability to perform analyses for individual structures. CERI has been designed as an on line Geographic Information System (GIS) based tool, and hence is fully compatible with current flooding maps, including those from FEMA. The basic framework and associated GIS methods can be readily applied to any coastal area. The approach can be used by local and state planners to objectively evaluate different policy options for effectiveness and cost/benefit. In this study, CERI is applied to RI two communities; Charlestown representing a typical coastal barrier system directly exposed to ocean waves and high erosion rates, with predominantly low density single family residences and Warwick located within Narragansett Bay, with more limited wave exposure, lower erosion rates, and higher residential housing density. Results of these applications are highlighted herein.
Malcolm L. Spaulding; Annette Grilli; Chris Damon; Teresa Crean; Grover Fugate; Bryan A. Oakley; Peter Stempel. STORMTOOLS: Coastal Environmental Risk Index (CERI). Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 2016, 4, 54 .
AMA StyleMalcolm L. Spaulding, Annette Grilli, Chris Damon, Teresa Crean, Grover Fugate, Bryan A. Oakley, Peter Stempel. STORMTOOLS: Coastal Environmental Risk Index (CERI). Journal of Marine Science and Engineering. 2016; 4 (3):54.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMalcolm L. Spaulding; Annette Grilli; Chris Damon; Teresa Crean; Grover Fugate; Bryan A. Oakley; Peter Stempel. 2016. "STORMTOOLS: Coastal Environmental Risk Index (CERI)." Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 4, no. 3: 54.