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Dr. Robert Bell
NIWA

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0 Coastal Engineering
0 Risk Assessment
0 sea-level rise
0 climate adaptation
0 coastal hazards

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coastal hazards
climate adaptation

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Journal article
Published: 01 November 2020 in Infrastructures
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Sea-level rise increasingly affects low-lying and exposed coastal communities due to climate change. These communities rely upon the delivery of stormwater and wastewater services which are often co-located underground in coastal areas. Due to sea-level rise and associated compounding climate-related hazards, managing these networks will progressively challenge local governments as climate change advances. Thus, responsible agencies must reconcile maintaining Levels of Service as the impacts of climate change worsen over the coming decades and beyond. A critical question is whether such networks can continue to be adapted/protected over time to retain Levels of Service, or whether eventual retreat may be the only viable adaptation option? If so, at what performance threshold? In this paper, we explore these questions for stormwater and wastewater, using a dynamic adaptive pathway planning (DAPP) approach designed to address thresholds and increasing risk over time. Involving key local stakeholders, we here use DAPP to identify thresholds for stormwater and wastewater services and retreat options, and for developing a comprehensive and area-specific retreat strategy comprising pathway portfolios, retreat phases, potential land use changes, and for exploring pathway conflicts and synergies. The result is a prototype for an area near Wellington, New Zealand, where a managed retreat of water infrastructure is being considered at some future juncture. Dynamic adaptive strategies for managed retreats can help to reduce future disruption from coastal flooding, signal land use changes early, inform maintenance, and allow for gradual budget adjustments by the agencies that can manage expenditure over time. We present this stepwise process in a pathway form that can be communicated spatially and visually, thereby making a retreat a more manageable, sequenced, adaptation option for water agencies, and the communities they serve.

ACS Style

Rick Kool; Judy Lawrence; Martin Drews; Robert Bell. Preparing for Sea-Level Rise through Adaptive Managed Retreat of a New Zealand Stormwater and Wastewater Network. Infrastructures 2020, 5, 92 .

AMA Style

Rick Kool, Judy Lawrence, Martin Drews, Robert Bell. Preparing for Sea-Level Rise through Adaptive Managed Retreat of a New Zealand Stormwater and Wastewater Network. Infrastructures. 2020; 5 (11):92.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Rick Kool; Judy Lawrence; Martin Drews; Robert Bell. 2020. "Preparing for Sea-Level Rise through Adaptive Managed Retreat of a New Zealand Stormwater and Wastewater Network." Infrastructures 5, no. 11: 92.

Preprint
Published: 26 July 2020
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Frequent flooding from sea-level rise (SLR) is one of the immediate climate change impacts affecting low-lying and exposed coastal communities. These communities rely upon the delivery of three-waters services for wastewater, stormwater and water supply. Due to ongoing SLR, managing these networks will increasingly be a challenge. This raises the issue of how local government can reconcile maintaining levels of service as the impacts of climate change and their uncertainties worsen over the coming decades (and beyond). Can they be adapted over time to retain levels of service or will they eventually require retreat and if so at what adaptation threshold? This paper explores managed retreat of two-waters infrastructure (wastewater and stormwater) as an adaptation option using a Dynamic Adaptive Pathway Planning (DAPP) approach. In the study, we use DAPP to frame the retreat of two-water networks, developing a combination of an area specific retreat strategy, pathway portfolios, retreat phases, land use change signaling and identify pathway conflicts and synergies. Repurposing retreated areas by utilizing Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) options was found to extend retreat thresholds for adjacent areas. A systematic ’routine’ developed in this study provides a structured approach for managed retreat of two-water infrastructure with the aim to reduce future disruption from flooding, signal land use changes early and allow for gradual budget adjustments by the agencies to manage expenditure over time. This approach helps inform and improve the decision-making process for the agencies and the communities they serve, by providing a stepwise process that can be communicated spatially and visually, thereby making a retreat adaptation option more manageable.

ACS Style

Rick Kool; Judy Lawrence; Martin Drews; Robert Bell. Preparing for Sea-Level Rise through an Adaptive Managed Retreat of a Two-Waters Network. 2020, 1 .

AMA Style

Rick Kool, Judy Lawrence, Martin Drews, Robert Bell. Preparing for Sea-Level Rise through an Adaptive Managed Retreat of a Two-Waters Network. . 2020; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Rick Kool; Judy Lawrence; Martin Drews; Robert Bell. 2020. "Preparing for Sea-Level Rise through an Adaptive Managed Retreat of a Two-Waters Network." , no. : 1.

Journal article
Published: 18 February 2020 in Sustainability
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Coastal flooding from extreme sea levels will increase in frequency and magnitude as global climate change forces sea-level rise (SLR). Extreme sea-level events, rare in the recent past (i.e., once per century), are projected to occur at least once per year by 2050 along many of the world’s coastlines. Information showing where and how built-environment exposure increases with SLR, enables timely adaptation before damaging thresholds are reached. This study presents a first national-scale assessment of New Zealand’s built-environment exposure to future coastal flooding. We use an analytical risk model framework, “RiskScape”, to enumerate land, buildings and infrastructure exposed to a present and future 100-year extreme sea-level flood event (ESL100). We used high-resolution topographic data to assess incremental exposure to 0.1 m SLR increases. This approach detects variable rates in the potential magnitude and timing of future flood exposure in response to SLR over decadal scales. National built-land and asset exposure to ESL100 flooding doubles with less than 1 m SLR, indicating low-lying areas are likely to experience rapid exposure increases from modest increases in SLR expected within the next few decades. This highlights an urgent need for national and regional actions to anticipate and adaptively plan to reduce future socio-economic impacts arising from flood exposure to extreme sea-levels and SLR.

ACS Style

Ryan Paulik; Scott Stephens; Robert Bell; Sanjay Wadhwa; Ben Popovich. National-Scale Built-Environment Exposure to 100-Year Extreme Sea Levels and Sea-Level Rise. Sustainability 2020, 12, 1513 .

AMA Style

Ryan Paulik, Scott Stephens, Robert Bell, Sanjay Wadhwa, Ben Popovich. National-Scale Built-Environment Exposure to 100-Year Extreme Sea Levels and Sea-Level Rise. Sustainability. 2020; 12 (4):1513.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Ryan Paulik; Scott Stephens; Robert Bell; Sanjay Wadhwa; Ben Popovich. 2020. "National-Scale Built-Environment Exposure to 100-Year Extreme Sea Levels and Sea-Level Rise." Sustainability 12, no. 4: 1513.

Journal article
Published: 15 January 2019 in Sustainability
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Decision makers face challenges in coastal areas about how to address the effects of ongoing and uncertain sea-level rise. Dynamic adaptive pathways planning (DAPP) and Real Options Analysis (ROA) can support decision makers to address irreducible uncertainties in coastal areas. This paper sets out what we learned by complementing multi-criteria decision analysis with DAPP and ROA when developing a 100-year coastal adaptation strategy in Hawke’s Bay, New Zealand. Lessons include the value of collaborative community and decision maker processes for increasing understanding about the changing risk over time, and the need to take early actions that enable a shift in pathway before those actions become ineffective. Modifications to the methods highlighted the importance of using several plausible scenarios for stress-testing options; considering costs and consent-ability early, to avoid the perception that hard protection will last; which criteria are appropriate for communities to assess; and making many pathways visible for future decision makers. We learned about the difficulties shifting thinking from short-term protection actions to longer-term anticipatory strategies. We found that a pathways system will require ongoing political leadership and governance with monitoring systems that can manage the adaptive process over long timeframes, by governments and their constituent communities.

ACS Style

Judy Lawrence; Robert Bell; Adolf Stroombergen. A Hybrid Process to Address Uncertainty and Changing Climate Risk in Coastal Areas Using Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis & Real Options Analysis: A New Zealand Application. Sustainability 2019, 11, 406 .

AMA Style

Judy Lawrence, Robert Bell, Adolf Stroombergen. A Hybrid Process to Address Uncertainty and Changing Climate Risk in Coastal Areas Using Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis & Real Options Analysis: A New Zealand Application. Sustainability. 2019; 11 (2):406.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Judy Lawrence; Robert Bell; Adolf Stroombergen. 2019. "A Hybrid Process to Address Uncertainty and Changing Climate Risk in Coastal Areas Using Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis & Real Options Analysis: A New Zealand Application." Sustainability 11, no. 2: 406.

Letter
Published: 27 September 2018 in Environmental Research Letters
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Dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP) is emerging as a 'fit-for-purpose' method for climate-change adaptation planning to address widening future uncertainty and long planning timeframes. A key component of DAPP is to monitor indicators of change such as flooding and storm events, which can trigger timely adaptive actions (change pathway/behavior) ahead of thresholds. Signals and triggers are needed to support DAPP—the signal provides early warning of the emergence of the trigger (decision-point), and the trigger initiates the process to change pathway before a harmful adaptation-threshold is reached. We demonstrate a new approach to designing signals and triggers using the case of increased flooding as sea level continues to rise. The flooding frequency is framed in terms of probable timing of several events reaching a specific height threshold within a set monitoring period. This framing is well suited to adaptive planning for different hazards, because it allows the period over which threshold exceedances are monitored to be specified, and thus allows action before adaptation-thresholds are reached, while accounting for the potential range of timing and providing a probability of premature warning, or of triggering adaptation too late. For our New Zealand sea level case study, we expect early signals to be observed in 10 year monitoring periods beginning 2021. Some urgency is therefore required to begin the assessment, planning and community engagement required to develop adaptive plans and associated signals and triggers for monitoring. Worldwide, greater urgency is required at tide-dominated sites than those adapted to large storm-surges. Triggers can be designed with confidence that a change in behavior pathway (e.g. relocating communities) will be triggered before an adaptation-threshold occurs. However, it is difficult to avoid the potential for premature adaptation. Therefore, political, social, economic, or cultural signals are also needed to complement the signals and triggers based on coastal-hazard considerations alone.

ACS Style

Scott A Stephens; Robert Bell; Judy Lawrence. Developing signals to trigger adaptation to sea-level rise. Environmental Research Letters 2018, 13, 104004 .

AMA Style

Scott A Stephens, Robert Bell, Judy Lawrence. Developing signals to trigger adaptation to sea-level rise. Environmental Research Letters. 2018; 13 (10):104004.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Scott A Stephens; Robert Bell; Judy Lawrence. 2018. "Developing signals to trigger adaptation to sea-level rise." Environmental Research Letters 13, no. 10: 104004.

Journal article
Published: 01 April 2018 in Environmental Science & Policy
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Sea-level rise challenges public policy-making because existing planning frameworks and methods are designed to promote certainty using static and time-bound planning and legal instruments. Sea-level rise is a dynamic and uncertain process, which is deeply uncertain towards the latter part of this century and beyond. Communities require decision making approaches that can enable adjustments to policies ahead of damage, without entrenching current exposure to hazards or incurring larger than necessary adjustment costs in the future. We first discuss the nature of the sea-level problem, the policy context that creates decision-making challenges and how they have been typically addressed through policy and practice. Secondly, we show how an assessment and planning approach, designed to address uncertainty and change (the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) planning approach), has been integrated into national guidance for coastal hazard and climate change decision-making in New Zealand. The Guidance integrates hazard and sea-level rise assessments with uncertainty type and with the scale and scope of activity. It is underpinned with values-based community engagement, and uses signals and decision triggers for monitoring and adjusting pathways to meet objectives over time. The applicability of the approach in the Guidance for other policy problems involving uncertainty, is also discussed.

ACS Style

Judy Lawrence; Rob Bell; Paula Blackett; Scott Stephens; Sylvia Allan. National guidance for adapting to coastal hazards and sea-level rise: Anticipating change, when and how to change pathway. Environmental Science & Policy 2018, 82, 100 -107.

AMA Style

Judy Lawrence, Rob Bell, Paula Blackett, Scott Stephens, Sylvia Allan. National guidance for adapting to coastal hazards and sea-level rise: Anticipating change, when and how to change pathway. Environmental Science & Policy. 2018; 82 ():100-107.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Judy Lawrence; Rob Bell; Paula Blackett; Scott Stephens; Sylvia Allan. 2018. "National guidance for adapting to coastal hazards and sea-level rise: Anticipating change, when and how to change pathway." Environmental Science & Policy 82, no. : 100-107.

Journal article
Published: 29 August 2017 in Journal of Marine Science and Engineering
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Coastal hazards result from erosion of the shore, or flooding of low-elevation land when storm surges combine with high tides and/or large waves. Future sea-level rise will greatly increase the frequency and depth of coastal flooding and will exacerbate erosion and raise groundwater levels, forcing vulnerable communities to adapt. Communities, local councils and infrastructure operators will need to decide when and how to adapt. The process of decision making using adaptive pathways approaches, is now being applied internationally to plan for adaptation over time by anticipating tipping points in the future when planning objectives are no longer being met. This process requires risk and uncertainty considerations to be transparent in the scenarios used in adaptive planning. We outline a framework for uncertainty identification and management within coastal hazard assessments. The framework provides a logical flow from the land use situation, to the related level of uncertainty as determined by the situation, to which hazard scenarios to model, to the complexity level of hazard modeling required, and to the possible decision type. Traditionally, coastal flood hazard maps show inundated areas only. We present enhanced maps of flooding depth and frequency which clearly show the degree of hazard exposure, where that exposure occurs, and how the exposure changes with sea-level rise, to better inform adaptive planning processes. The new uncertainty framework and mapping techniques can better inform identification of trigger points for adaptation pathways planning and their expected time range, compared to traditional coastal flooding hazard assessments.

ACS Style

Scott A. Stephens; Robert G. Bell; Judy Lawrence. Applying Principles of Uncertainty within Coastal Hazard Assessments to Better Support Coastal Adaptation. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 2017, 5, 40 .

AMA Style

Scott A. Stephens, Robert G. Bell, Judy Lawrence. Applying Principles of Uncertainty within Coastal Hazard Assessments to Better Support Coastal Adaptation. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering. 2017; 5 (3):40.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Scott A. Stephens; Robert G. Bell; Judy Lawrence. 2017. "Applying Principles of Uncertainty within Coastal Hazard Assessments to Better Support Coastal Adaptation." Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 5, no. 3: 40.

Journal article
Published: 13 July 2016 in New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research
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ACS Style

Hl Rouse; Robert Bell; Cj Lundquist; Pe Blackett; Dm Hicks; D-N King. Coastal adaptation to climate change in Aotearoa-New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research 2016, 51, 183 -222.

AMA Style

Hl Rouse, Robert Bell, Cj Lundquist, Pe Blackett, Dm Hicks, D-N King. Coastal adaptation to climate change in Aotearoa-New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research. 2016; 51 (2):183-222.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Hl Rouse; Robert Bell; Cj Lundquist; Pe Blackett; Dm Hicks; D-N King. 2016. "Coastal adaptation to climate change in Aotearoa-New Zealand." New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research 51, no. 2: 183-222.

Journal article
Published: 01 December 2014 in Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology
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A technique to produce high-water alerts from coinciding high astronomical tide and high mean sea level anomaly is demonstrated for the Pacific Islands region. Low-lying coastal margins are vulnerable to episodic inundation that often coincides with times of higher-than-normal high tides. Prior knowledge of the dates of the highest tides can assist with efforts to minimize the impacts of increased exposure to inundation. It is shown that the climate-driven mean sea level anomaly is an important component of total sea level elevation in the Pacific Islands region, which should be accounted for in medium-term (1–7 months) sea level forecasts. An empirical technique is applied to develop a mean sea level–adjusted high-water alert calendar that accounts for both sea level components and provides a practical tool to assist with coastal inundation hazard planning and management.

ACS Style

Scott A. Stephens; Robert Bell; Douglas Ramsay; Nigel Goodhue. High-Water Alerts from Coinciding High Astronomical Tide and High Mean Sea Level Anomaly in the Pacific Islands Region. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 2014, 31, 2829 -2843.

AMA Style

Scott A. Stephens, Robert Bell, Douglas Ramsay, Nigel Goodhue. High-Water Alerts from Coinciding High Astronomical Tide and High Mean Sea Level Anomaly in the Pacific Islands Region. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology. 2014; 31 (12):2829-2843.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Scott A. Stephens; Robert Bell; Douglas Ramsay; Nigel Goodhue. 2014. "High-Water Alerts from Coinciding High Astronomical Tide and High Mean Sea Level Anomaly in the Pacific Islands Region." Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 31, no. 12: 2829-2843.

Journal article
Published: 01 January 2013 in Weather and Climate
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ACS Style

Ackerley; Bell; Mullan; Mc Millan. Estimation of regional departures from global-average sea-level rise around New Zealand from AOGCM simulations. Weather and Climate 2013, 33, 1 .

AMA Style

Ackerley, Bell, Mullan, Mc Millan. Estimation of regional departures from global-average sea-level rise around New Zealand from AOGCM simulations. Weather and Climate. 2013; 33 ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Ackerley; Bell; Mullan; Mc Millan. 2013. "Estimation of regional departures from global-average sea-level rise around New Zealand from AOGCM simulations." Weather and Climate 33, no. : 1.

Journal article
Published: 07 January 2012 in Journal of Geophysical Research
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[1] In terms of sea level data sets able to be used for long‐term sea level trend analysis, the Southern Hemisphere is a data sparse region of the world. New Zealand lies in this region, presently having four (major port) data sets used for such trend analysis. This paper describes the process followed to compute new sea level trends at another six ports, each with very discontinuous tide gauge records. In each case the tide gauge has previously only been used for precisely defining an historical local Mean Sea Level (MSL) datum. The process used involved a comparison of the old MSL datum with a newly defined datum obtained from sea level data covering the last decade. A simple linear trend was fitted between the two data points. Efforts were then made to assess possible bias in the results due to oceanographic factors such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). This was done by taking the longer time series from the four major ports and assessing the spatially coherent variability in annual sea level using the dominant principal component from an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The average relative sea level rise calculated from these six newly derived trends was 1.7 ± 0.1 mm yr−1, a result that is completely consistent with the analysis of the long‐term gauge records. Most importantly, it offers a relatively simple method of improving our knowledge of relative sea level trends in data sparse regions of the world.

ACS Style

John Hannah; Robert G. Bell. Regional sea level trends in New Zealand. Journal of Geophysical Research 2012, 117, 1 .

AMA Style

John Hannah, Robert G. Bell. Regional sea level trends in New Zealand. Journal of Geophysical Research. 2012; 117 (C1):1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

John Hannah; Robert G. Bell. 2012. "Regional sea level trends in New Zealand." Journal of Geophysical Research 117, no. C1: 1.

Journal article
Published: 01 May 2011 in Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering
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A new method for estimating extreme sea levels from short sea-level records in a tide-dominated environment is presented. A short sea-level record is first decomposed into its constituent components such as tide, mean level of the sea, and storm surge. Monte Carlo simulations are then incorporated into an empirical simulation technique to randomly recombine the components to produce an annual series of sea levels at high tide from which the annual maximum is selected. The yearly simulation is repeated many thousands of times to yield robust statistics on extreme values. Comparison of the method with the traditional extreme-value analysis of annual maximum sea levels for a 33-year record shows that the methods give similar results. The method is likely to be most useful for estimation of extreme sea levels at locations where the available sea-level record is short (<15 years) and where the various sea-level components can be assumed to be largely independent.

ACS Style

D. G. Goring; S. A. Stephens; R. G. Bell; C. P. Pearson. Estimation of Extreme Sea Levels in a Tide-Dominated Environment Using Short Data Records. Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering 2011, 137, 150 -159.

AMA Style

D. G. Goring, S. A. Stephens, R. G. Bell, C. P. Pearson. Estimation of Extreme Sea Levels in a Tide-Dominated Environment Using Short Data Records. Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering. 2011; 137 (3):150-159.

Chicago/Turabian Style

D. G. Goring; S. A. Stephens; R. G. Bell; C. P. Pearson. 2011. "Estimation of Extreme Sea Levels in a Tide-Dominated Environment Using Short Data Records." Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering 137, no. 3: 150-159.

Journal article
Published: 01 January 2011 in Pacific Conservation Biology
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In New Zealand, climate change impacts have already been observed, and will increase in future decades. Average air temperature is predicted to warm by 2.1°C by 2090 for a mid-range IPCC scenario (A1B), with larger increases possible for some IPCC scenarios with higher rates of future emissions. Sea-level rise projections range between 0.18 – 0.59 m by 2100, based on six IPCC future emission scenarios excluding future rapid dynamical changes in polar ice-sheet flow. Global surface ocean pH is predicted to decrease by an additional 0.14 – 0.35 units by 2100, with a similar decrease expected in New Zealand waters. Rainfall is predicted to change significantly, with increased precipitation in the west, and reduced precipitation in the east, and more intense rainfall events. Increasing temperature is likely to result in species’ range shifts southward and upward, and mortality during extreme heat events. Ocean acidification is expected to cause declines in carbonate communities, with cold water communities predicted to decline first due to a lower aragonite saturation horizon in cold waters. Sea-level rise is likely to impact on coastal biota, reducing coastal habitats, changing inundation patterns, and increasing vulnerability to storm surges and tides. Changes in storm and rainfall intensity are predicted to increase disturbance to terrestrial and aquatic communities. Areas with increased precipitation will amplify rates of disturbance, erosion and sedimentation into aquatic, estuarine and coastal ecosystems, while areas with low precipitation will experience increased fire risk. In New Zealand, climate change projections are being integrated into management, including increasing protection and improving management of coastal habitats. Contributing to a global reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, New Zealand is the first country to include forestry in their Emissions Trading Scheme, already positively affecting biodiversity by reducing deforestation.

ACS Style

Carolyn J Lundquist; Doug Ramsay; Rob Bell; Andrew Swales; Suzi Kerr. Predicted impacts of climate change on New Zealand’s biodiversity. Pacific Conservation Biology 2011, 17, 179 -191.

AMA Style

Carolyn J Lundquist, Doug Ramsay, Rob Bell, Andrew Swales, Suzi Kerr. Predicted impacts of climate change on New Zealand’s biodiversity. Pacific Conservation Biology. 2011; 17 (3):179-191.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Carolyn J Lundquist; Doug Ramsay; Rob Bell; Andrew Swales; Suzi Kerr. 2011. "Predicted impacts of climate change on New Zealand’s biodiversity." Pacific Conservation Biology 17, no. 3: 179-191.

Journal article
Published: 30 September 2005 in Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering
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This report on the Sumatra-Andaman great earthquake and tsunami of December 26, 2004 describes the event and its impacts in southern Thailand. It includes the observations of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering Reconnaissance Team gathered one month after the event. The report covers the effects of the tsunami on the natural and built environment, and the recovery process in relation to social and economic issues. Lessons applicable to the understanding and potential mitigation of tsunami risk in New Zealand are presented and discussed.

ACS Style

Robert Bell; Hugh Cowan; Erica Dalziell; Noel Evans; Mike O'leary; Bernie Rush; Lawrence Yule. Survey of impacts on the Andaman coast, southern Thailand following the great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake and tsunami of December 26, 2004. Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering 2005, 38, 123 -148.

AMA Style

Robert Bell, Hugh Cowan, Erica Dalziell, Noel Evans, Mike O'leary, Bernie Rush, Lawrence Yule. Survey of impacts on the Andaman coast, southern Thailand following the great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake and tsunami of December 26, 2004. Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering. 2005; 38 (3):123-148.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Robert Bell; Hugh Cowan; Erica Dalziell; Noel Evans; Mike O'leary; Bernie Rush; Lawrence Yule. 2005. "Survey of impacts on the Andaman coast, southern Thailand following the great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake and tsunami of December 26, 2004." Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering 38, no. 3: 123-148.

Proceedings article
Published: 28 September 2004 in Estuarine and Coastal Modeling (2003)
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Two- and three-dimensional hydrodynamic models of the Hauraki Gulf (Auckland, New Zealand) have been developed over several years, verified against several observational datasets for currents, temperature and tides. The modeling has reached a stage where it is now being used in a wide range of applications to support resource management and maritime operations. The underpinning modeling relates to both tidal and wind-generated currents and circulation in the Gulf over a variety of timescales from hours to multiple decades. Applications of the model described in this paper relate to sustainability of fisheries and aquaculture, surface wind drift (search & rescue, outfall plumes, water quality) and yacht racing (e.g., Americas Cup). The next stage in utilizing the models is the development of a nowcasting and forecasting hydrodynamic system.

ACS Style

Robert G. Bell; John W. Oldman; Scott A. Stephens. Recent Applications of 3D Wind-Driven Circulation Modeling to a Semi-Enclosed Sea: Hauraki Gulf, New Zealand. Estuarine and Coastal Modeling (2003) 2004, 288 -307.

AMA Style

Robert G. Bell, John W. Oldman, Scott A. Stephens. Recent Applications of 3D Wind-Driven Circulation Modeling to a Semi-Enclosed Sea: Hauraki Gulf, New Zealand. Estuarine and Coastal Modeling (2003). 2004; ():288-307.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Robert G. Bell; John W. Oldman; Scott A. Stephens. 2004. "Recent Applications of 3D Wind-Driven Circulation Modeling to a Semi-Enclosed Sea: Hauraki Gulf, New Zealand." Estuarine and Coastal Modeling (2003) , no. : 288-307.

Original articles
Published: 01 June 2001 in New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research
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Tidal currents derived from current meter measurements are compared with the output from a barotropic tidal model of the New Zealand region. For the semi‐diurnal constituents there was very good agreement for the M2 tide and good agreement for the S2 tide. For the diurnal constituents (Kl, Ol) it was found that as the amplitude of the constituents decreased so did both the model/observation agreement and the accuracy of the observed tidal ellipse parameters. Consequently it was not possible to decide whether differences arose through shortcomings in the model or in the data. However, the overall performance of the model as a prognostic tool for ocean tidal current simulation appears to be good.

ACS Style

Basil R. Stanton; Derek G. Goring; Robert Bell. Observed and modelled tidal currents in the New Zealand region. New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research 2001, 35, 397 -415.

AMA Style

Basil R. Stanton, Derek G. Goring, Robert Bell. Observed and modelled tidal currents in the New Zealand region. New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research. 2001; 35 (2):397-415.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Basil R. Stanton; Derek G. Goring; Robert Bell. 2001. "Observed and modelled tidal currents in the New Zealand region." New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research 35, no. 2: 397-415.

Conference paper
Published: 23 March 2001 in Coastal Engineering 2000
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Recent modelling of tides over a large tract of the SW Pacific has provided improved knowledge of the trapped tidal wave around New Zealand. An amphidrome in the semidiurnal solar tide (S2) off the east coast produces a marked contrast in spring-neap tides between east and west coasts. The interannual and decadal variability in sea level around New Zealand (up to a range of 0.2 m) confirms that the Pacific-wide ENSO system and the effect of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) are not confined to tropical and sub-tropical, latitudes, but are clearly, but not simply, linked to the southern mid-latitude region straddled by New Zealand. The confounding behaviour of interannual and decadal variability and its non-stationary link with ENSO effects masks the ongoing global sea-level rise. Further advances are now possible with the completion of networks of open-coast sea-level gauges in Australia, Pacific Islands and New Zealand, complemented with satellite altimetry and robust tidal models.

ACS Style

Robert Bell; Derek G. Goring; Roy A. Walters. Advances in Understanding Sea-Level Variability around New Zealand. Coastal Engineering 2000 2001, 1 .

AMA Style

Robert Bell, Derek G. Goring, Roy A. Walters. Advances in Understanding Sea-Level Variability around New Zealand. Coastal Engineering 2000. 2001; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Robert Bell; Derek G. Goring; Roy A. Walters. 2001. "Advances in Understanding Sea-Level Variability around New Zealand." Coastal Engineering 2000 , no. : 1.

Journal article
Published: 15 February 2000 in Marine Geology
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ACS Style

Malcolm O. Green; Robert Bell; Tony J. Dolphin; Andrew Swales. Silt and sand transport in a deep tidal channel of a large estuary (Manukau Harbour, New Zealand). Marine Geology 2000, 163, 217 -240.

AMA Style

Malcolm O. Green, Robert Bell, Tony J. Dolphin, Andrew Swales. Silt and sand transport in a deep tidal channel of a large estuary (Manukau Harbour, New Zealand). Marine Geology. 2000; 163 (1-4):217-240.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Malcolm O. Green; Robert Bell; Tony J. Dolphin; Andrew Swales. 2000. "Silt and sand transport in a deep tidal channel of a large estuary (Manukau Harbour, New Zealand)." Marine Geology 163, no. 1-4: 217-240.

Original articles
Published: 01 December 1999 in New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research
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Sea‐level data from two sites in northern New Zealand, along with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), are analysed for interannual and decadal variability using wavelets. The analysis shows, using statistically significant wavelet power, there is a significant relationship between mean sea level (MSL) and SOI. However, the relationship is highly variable, both in magnitude and in the range of time‐scales over which it occurs. This non‐stationarity necessitates the use of techniques such as wavelets for analysis. An interdecadal response in MSL around northern New Zealand has been isolated, with shifts occurring in 1950 and the late 1970s. This behaviour in MSL appears to coincide with shifts in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, thought previously to be largely centred in the North Pacific. A strong correlation between SOI and sea surface temperature (SST) is also demonstrated. This relationship appears to be stable in magnitude (a large change in SOI produces a large change in SST) and to occur over the same range of time‐scales. More SST and MSL data are required for other parts of New Zealand to determine whether these findings apply elsewhere.

ACS Style

Derek G. Goring; Robert Bell. El Niño and decadal effects on sea‐level variability in northern New Zealand: A wavelet analysis. New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research 1999, 33, 587 -598.

AMA Style

Derek G. Goring, Robert Bell. El Niño and decadal effects on sea‐level variability in northern New Zealand: A wavelet analysis. New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research. 1999; 33 (4):587-598.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Derek G. Goring; Robert Bell. 1999. "El Niño and decadal effects on sea‐level variability in northern New Zealand: A wavelet analysis." New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research 33, no. 4: 587-598.

Original articles
Published: 01 March 1998 in New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research
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A calibrated two‐dimensional finite‐element model, which handles flooding/drying of intertidal areas, complemented by field data, has produced information on tidal propagation in Manukau Harbour, New Zealand with reasonably good accuracy. Excluding the upper‐harbour inlets, c. 50% of both the amplification and phase lag in the dominant M2 tidal constituent occurs through the deep 10‐km‐long entrance channel to Puponga Point. The calculation of tidal residuals has isolated flood‐directed and ebb‐directed residual circulation respectively on either side of Puponga Point, which is a typical pattern for alternating flows around headlands. The model has established the dominance of tidal‐driven over wind‐driven circulation in most of the harbour except in the upper intertidal areas. Wind‐driven circulation in the inner Harbour is characterised by downwind flows over intertidal sand banks with pressure‐driven return flows (vertically averaged) in the deeper main channels. Tidal dissipation rates are sufficiently high to inhibit the onset of any summer stratification.

ACS Style

Robert G. Bell; Sergei V. Dumnov; Bryan L. Williams; Malcolm J. N. Greig. Hydrodynamics of Manukau Harbour, New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research 1998, 32, 81 -100.

AMA Style

Robert G. Bell, Sergei V. Dumnov, Bryan L. Williams, Malcolm J. N. Greig. Hydrodynamics of Manukau Harbour, New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research. 1998; 32 (1):81-100.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Robert G. Bell; Sergei V. Dumnov; Bryan L. Williams; Malcolm J. N. Greig. 1998. "Hydrodynamics of Manukau Harbour, New Zealand." New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research 32, no. 1: 81-100.