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This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on the distribution of Styrax sumatrana in North Sumatra by applying the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model with biophysical factors (elevation, slope, aspect, and soil), climatic factors (19 bioclimate data sets for 2050 and 2070), and anthropogenic factors (land use land cover (LULC) changes in 2050 and 2070). The future climate data retrieved and used are the output of four climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), namely, the CCSM4, CNRM-CM5, MIROC5, and MRI-CGCM3 models, under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The MaxEnt modelling results showed the importance of the mean temperature of the coldest quarter and the LULC variables. Styrax sumatrana rely on environmental conditions with air temperatures ranging from 13 to 19 °C. The potentially suitable land types for Styrax sumatrana are shrubs, gardens, and forests. The future predictions show that the suitable habitat for Styrax sumatrana is predicted to decrease to 3.87% in 2050 and to 3.54% in 2070 under the RCP4.5 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the suitable area is predicted to decrease to 3.04% in 2050 and to 1.36% in 2070, respectively. The degradation of the suitable area is mainly due to increasing temperature and deforestation in future predictions. The modelling results illustrate that the suitable habitats of Styrax sumatrana are likely to be reduced under future climate change scenarios or lost in 2070 under the RCP8.5 scenario. The potential future extinction of this species should alert authorities to formulate conservation strategies. Results also demonstrated key variables that should be used for formulating ex situ conservation strategies.
Muhammad Saputra; Han Lee. Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution of Styrax sumatrana in North Sumatra, Indonesia. Sustainability 2021, 13, 462 .
AMA StyleMuhammad Saputra, Han Lee. Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution of Styrax sumatrana in North Sumatra, Indonesia. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (2):462.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMuhammad Saputra; Han Lee. 2021. "Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution of Styrax sumatrana in North Sumatra, Indonesia." Sustainability 13, no. 2: 462.
Muhammad Saputra; A D Sunandar. Predicting the potential distribution of Taxussumatrana using Maximum Entropy Model. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 2020, 522, 1 .
AMA StyleMuhammad Saputra, A D Sunandar. Predicting the potential distribution of Taxussumatrana using Maximum Entropy Model. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science. 2020; 522 ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMuhammad Saputra; A D Sunandar. 2020. "Predicting the potential distribution of Taxussumatrana using Maximum Entropy Model." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 522, no. : 1.
Styrax sumatrana is the prestigious tree from North Sumatra. The resin which is a product from this tree has high demand and take a role as the primary income for farmer around the forest. However, the climate change along with the land conversion, threatens the species distribution . This paper aims to analyse the variable that contributes to Styrax sumatrana distribution and predict the potential distribution area of the species in North Sumatra Province . Several variables, such as elevation, slope, aspect, climate condition and land use land cover (LULC), were used to analyse the contribution for Styrax sumatrana distribution. The analysis uses the Maximum entropy model to examine the variable contribution for species distribution. The result shows that the mean temperature of the coldest quarter has a higher contribution for species distribution followed by elevation and LULC. The climate condition has a great impact by 28.5% than the other variable. The potential area that is suitable for Styrax sumatrana distribution was 8.91% or around 663,221.94 ha from a total of region.
Muhammad Hadi Saputra; Saut Aritua Hasiholan Sagala; Han Soo Lee. Species Distribution of Styrax sumatrana in North Sumatra using Maxent Modelling Approach. Forum Geografi 2019, 33, 196 -208.
AMA StyleMuhammad Hadi Saputra, Saut Aritua Hasiholan Sagala, Han Soo Lee. Species Distribution of Styrax sumatrana in North Sumatra using Maxent Modelling Approach. Forum Geografi. 2019; 33 (2):196-208.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMuhammad Hadi Saputra; Saut Aritua Hasiholan Sagala; Han Soo Lee. 2019. "Species Distribution of Styrax sumatrana in North Sumatra using Maxent Modelling Approach." Forum Geografi 33, no. 2: 196-208.
Land use and land cover (LULC) form a baseline thematic map for monitoring, resource management, and planning activities and facilitate the development of strategies to balance conservation, conflicting uses, and development pressures. In this study, changes in LULC in North Sumatra, Indonesia, are simulated and predicted using an artificial-neural-network-based cellular automaton (ANN-CA) model. Five criteria (altitude, slope, aspect, distance from the road, and soil type) are used as exploratory data in the learning process of the ANN-CA model to determine their impacts on LULC changes between 1990 and 2000; among the criteria, altitude and distance from the road have strong impacts. Comparison between the predicted and the real LULC maps for 2010 illustrates high agreement, with a Kappa index of 0.83 and a percentage of correctness of 87.28%. Then, the ANN-CA model is applied to predict LULC changes in 2050 and 2070. The LULC predictions for 2050 and 2070 demonstrate high increases in plantation area of more than 4%. Meanwhile, forest and crop area are projected to decrease by approximately 1.2% and 1.6%, respectively, by 2050. By 2070, forest and crop areas will decrease by 1.2% and 1.7%, respectively, indicating human influences on LULC changes from forest and cropland to plantations. This study illustrates that the simulation of LULC changes using the ANN-CA model can produce reliable predictions for future LULC.
Muhammad Hadi Saputra; Han Soo Lee. Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Changes for North Sumatra, Indonesia, Using an Artificial-Neural-Network-Based Cellular Automaton. Sustainability 2019, 11, 3024 .
AMA StyleMuhammad Hadi Saputra, Han Soo Lee. Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Changes for North Sumatra, Indonesia, Using an Artificial-Neural-Network-Based Cellular Automaton. Sustainability. 2019; 11 (11):3024.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMuhammad Hadi Saputra; Han Soo Lee. 2019. "Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Changes for North Sumatra, Indonesia, Using an Artificial-Neural-Network-Based Cellular Automaton." Sustainability 11, no. 11: 3024.
Ahmad Dany Sunandar; Sriyanti Puspita Barus; Wanda Ksuwanda; Muhammad Saputra. Vegetation Diversity and Conservation Implications on Habitat of Taxus (Taxus sumatrana Miq. de Laub) in Northern Sumatra. Proceedings of the International Conference on Natural Resources and Technology 2019, 365 -371.
AMA StyleAhmad Dany Sunandar, Sriyanti Puspita Barus, Wanda Ksuwanda, Muhammad Saputra. Vegetation Diversity and Conservation Implications on Habitat of Taxus (Taxus sumatrana Miq. de Laub) in Northern Sumatra. Proceedings of the International Conference on Natural Resources and Technology. 2019; ():365-371.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAhmad Dany Sunandar; Sriyanti Puspita Barus; Wanda Ksuwanda; Muhammad Saputra. 2019. "Vegetation Diversity and Conservation Implications on Habitat of Taxus (Taxus sumatrana Miq. de Laub) in Northern Sumatra." Proceedings of the International Conference on Natural Resources and Technology , no. : 365-371.