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On the basis of daily precipitation and discharges recorded in 1974–2013 relations between precipitation and runoff in the Kłodzka Valley (KV) in south-western Poland were analyzed. The degree of synchronicity between them was determined using the bivariate Archimedean copulas. This study aims at identifying and then describe in a probabilistic way the precipitation and runoff relations in the area playing an important role in the formation of water resources, but also particularly exposed to flooding. It was found that isolines of the synchronous occurrence of precipitation and total runoff in the Nysa Kłodzka catchment controlled by gauge Kłodzko had a zonal distribution, with the synchronicity values decreasing from south-east to north-west of the study area. This proves that its eastern part is more hydrologically active, compared to the western part, and as such it determines the amount of water resources of the study area. The decrease in synchronicity is influenced by the type and spatial distribution of precipitation, the structure of water supply, and the geological structure of the study area. Moreover, probabilistic methods applied in this research differ from those used in previous research on the hydrology of KV, as we propose using the copula functions. The method presented can be used to evaluate the availability of water resources in areas playing a key role in their formation on different scales.
Adam Perz; Leszek Sobkowiak; Dariusz Wrzesiński. Probabilistic Approach to Precipitation-Runoff Relation in a Mountain Catchment: A Case Study of the Kłodzka Valley in Poland. Water 2021, 13, 1229 .
AMA StyleAdam Perz, Leszek Sobkowiak, Dariusz Wrzesiński. Probabilistic Approach to Precipitation-Runoff Relation in a Mountain Catchment: A Case Study of the Kłodzka Valley in Poland. Water. 2021; 13 (9):1229.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAdam Perz; Leszek Sobkowiak; Dariusz Wrzesiński. 2021. "Probabilistic Approach to Precipitation-Runoff Relation in a Mountain Catchment: A Case Study of the Kłodzka Valley in Poland." Water 13, no. 9: 1229.
Based on daily flows recorded in the period 1971–2010, the synchronous occurrence of the annual (AMAXq), winter (WMAXq), and summer (SMAXq) maximum specific runoffs in 39 sub-catchments of the Warta River catchment (WRC) in Poland was analyzed. First, trends in the flows were detected using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall (M-K) test. Then, the degree of the synchronous and asynchronous occurrences of the maximum specific runoffs (MAXq) in respective sub-catchments in relation to the Gorzów Wielkopolski gauge closing the WRC was calculated. Finally, the reasons for the detected spatial and temporal differences were discussed. The study revealed a noticeable variability of the analyzed parameters. The highest synchronicity of AMAXq and WMAXq in relation to the closing Gorzów Wielkopolski gauge was revealed in the man-made Kościański and Mosiński canals and in the sub-catchments of the Noteć, Wełna, and lower Prosna rivers. While compared to AMAXq and WMAXq, the summer maxima showed relatively lower degrees of synchronicity, an increase in the synchronous occurrence of SMAXq in the southern part of WRC, and a decrease in its central part were identified. It was concluded that the stronger synchronicity of WMAXq resulted from the nival regime of the investigated rivers. Consequently, the annual maxima were most often associated with the winter half-year. The detected differences of synchronicity of the annual and seasonal runoffs are conditioned by climate, more specifically by the course of winter and resulting from it snow cover thickness, and also the amount and intensity of rainfall in summer.
Adam Perz; Leszek Sobkowiak; Dariusz Wrzesiński. Spatial Differentiation of the Maximum River Runoff Synchronicity in the Warta River Catchment, Poland. Water 2020, 12, 1782 .
AMA StyleAdam Perz, Leszek Sobkowiak, Dariusz Wrzesiński. Spatial Differentiation of the Maximum River Runoff Synchronicity in the Warta River Catchment, Poland. Water. 2020; 12 (6):1782.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAdam Perz; Leszek Sobkowiak; Dariusz Wrzesiński. 2020. "Spatial Differentiation of the Maximum River Runoff Synchronicity in the Warta River Catchment, Poland." Water 12, no. 6: 1782.
In this study, on the basis of the maximum and mean annual values of flows, dependencies between flows recorded in seven water gauges located in the upper part of the Indus River Basin (IRB) in Pakistan were analyzed. First, the non-parametric Mann–Kendall (M–K) test was used to detect trends in the flows. Next, the Pearson’s correlation coefficient was applied. Then, the selected copulas were used to find joint distributions of the studied time series. In the next stage, the degrees of synchronous and asynchronous occurrence of, respectively, the annual maximum (AMAXF) and mean annual flows (MAF) were calculated. The study revealed that correlations between the flows in selected gauge stations were very strong and statistically significant. These results were confirmed by the synchronicity analysis carried out with the help of the copula functions. The highest relationship was detected in the case of gauges Besham Qila and Kachura on the Indus mainstream, while the lowest was detected in gauges Besham Qila and Naltar on the Naltar River. These findings can be of high practical value in the field of sustainable water resource management, including for flood protection, agricultural water supply, reservoir water storage, and hydropower generation in the IRB.
Leszek Sobkowiak; Adam Perz; Dariusz Wrzesiński; Muhammad Abrar Faiz. Estimation of the River Flow Synchronicity in the Upper Indus River Basin Using Copula Functions. Sustainability 2020, 12, 5122 .
AMA StyleLeszek Sobkowiak, Adam Perz, Dariusz Wrzesiński, Muhammad Abrar Faiz. Estimation of the River Flow Synchronicity in the Upper Indus River Basin Using Copula Functions. Sustainability. 2020; 12 (12):5122.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLeszek Sobkowiak; Adam Perz; Dariusz Wrzesiński; Muhammad Abrar Faiz. 2020. "Estimation of the River Flow Synchronicity in the Upper Indus River Basin Using Copula Functions." Sustainability 12, no. 12: 5122.
The paper identifies relationships between lake water levels and indices of macroscale atmospheric circulations: Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), East Atlantic (EA), and Scandinavian pattern (SCAND). Correlation coefficients between synchronous and asynchronous series of monthly water levels and 4 circulation indices were calculated. Based on Ward hierarchical grouping considering 156 correlation coefficients, the groups of lakes were designated due to the strength and term of relation of circulation indices with lake water levels. It was found that these links are not strong but noticeable. The strength of relationships varies in space and time, and the designated groups of lakes refer not only to the climatic diversity of the studied area, but also to some extent to the types of water levels regime. The observed relationships are the most important in the case of AO and NAO (particularly in winter period), and slightly weaker for EA and SCAND. The analysis used mean monthly water levels of 15 lakes in northern Poland from 1976–2015.
Katarzyna Plewa; Adam Perz; Dariusz Wrzesiński. Links between Teleconnection Patterns and Water Level Regime of Selected Polish Lakes. Water 2019, 11, 1330 .
AMA StyleKatarzyna Plewa, Adam Perz, Dariusz Wrzesiński. Links between Teleconnection Patterns and Water Level Regime of Selected Polish Lakes. Water. 2019; 11 (7):1330.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKatarzyna Plewa; Adam Perz; Dariusz Wrzesiński. 2019. "Links between Teleconnection Patterns and Water Level Regime of Selected Polish Lakes." Water 11, no. 7: 1330.
The hydrology of coastal lakes differs significantly from that of inland water bodies due to the influence of the neighboring sea. Observed climatic changes are expected to enhance the effect of the sea on coastal lake ecosystems, which makes research on sea–lake interactions even more significant. In this study, on the basis of maximum annual and monthly values of water level, dependencies among the water levels of six lakes located along the southern coast of the Baltic Sea in Poland, and the Baltic Sea water levels were analyzed. First, the Spearman rank correlation and the linear regression method were applied. Then, selected copulas were used to find joint distributions of the studied time series. In the next stage, the degrees of synchronous and asynchronous occurrences of maximum water levels in lakes and the sea were calculated. The study revealed that correlations between the maximum annual water levels in coastal lakes and in the Baltic Sea in the selected gauge stations were very strong and statistically significant. These results were confirmed by a synchronicity analysis carried out with the help of a copula function. The highest relationship was detected in the case of Lake Resko Przymorskie (correlation coefficient 0.86, synchronicity 75.18%), while the lowest were observed in Lakes Jamno (0.62 and 58.20%, respectively) and Bukowo (0.60 and 56.82%, respectively). The relation strength between maximum water levels of the sea and coastal lakes may increase in the future due to sea level rises caused by climate warming.
Katarzyna Plewa; Adam Perz; Dariusz Wrzesiński; Leszek Sobkowiak. Probabilistic Assessment of Correlations of Water Levels in Polish Coastal Lakes with Sea Water Level with the Application of Archimedean Copulas. Water 2019, 11, 1292 .
AMA StyleKatarzyna Plewa, Adam Perz, Dariusz Wrzesiński, Leszek Sobkowiak. Probabilistic Assessment of Correlations of Water Levels in Polish Coastal Lakes with Sea Water Level with the Application of Archimedean Copulas. Water. 2019; 11 (6):1292.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKatarzyna Plewa; Adam Perz; Dariusz Wrzesiński; Leszek Sobkowiak. 2019. "Probabilistic Assessment of Correlations of Water Levels in Polish Coastal Lakes with Sea Water Level with the Application of Archimedean Copulas." Water 11, no. 6: 1292.