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Since its adoption in 2015, governments, international agencies and private entities have increasingly recognized the implications of the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C long-term temperature goal (LTTG) for greenhouse gas emissions reduction planning in both the near- and long-term. Governments have submitted or are preparing updates of their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and are encouraged to submit long term low greenhouse gas development plans (Article 4 of the Agreement1), aimed at aligning short- and long-term strategies. The foundations on which country targets are based are guided, directly or indirectly, by a variety of sources of information judged to be authoritative, including scientific research institutes2, international agencies, or private companies. Importantly, such authoritative sources also affect planning and decision making by investors3 who aim to anticipate climate policies, and their decisions in turn can drive or hold back setting ambitious emissions-reduction targets.
Robert Brecha; Gaurav Ganti; Robin Lamboll; Zebedee Nicholls; Willion Hare; Jared Lewis; Malte Meinshausen; Michiel Schaeffer; Matthew Gidden. Institutional “Paris Agreement Compatible” Mitigation Scenarios Evaluated Against the Paris Agreement 1.5°C Goal. 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleRobert Brecha, Gaurav Ganti, Robin Lamboll, Zebedee Nicholls, Willion Hare, Jared Lewis, Malte Meinshausen, Michiel Schaeffer, Matthew Gidden. Institutional “Paris Agreement Compatible” Mitigation Scenarios Evaluated Against the Paris Agreement 1.5°C Goal. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRobert Brecha; Gaurav Ganti; Robin Lamboll; Zebedee Nicholls; Willion Hare; Jared Lewis; Malte Meinshausen; Michiel Schaeffer; Matthew Gidden. 2021. "Institutional “Paris Agreement Compatible” Mitigation Scenarios Evaluated Against the Paris Agreement 1.5°C Goal." , no. : 1.
Achieving the 1.5°C temperature target of the Paris Agreement requires rapid and significant reductions in emissions. There is strong evidence that electricity generation from coal must rapidly decrease to achieve this goal, but a large range of uncertainty over a potential bridging role of natural gas in the electricity sector. Using the integrated assessment model REMIND, we find that pathways that meet the 1.5°C temperature target with low overshoot show a marked ‘off-ramp’ characteristic for natural gas rather than a bridge. Natural gas electricity generation in 2030 decreases to 12–15 EJ (from 23 EJ currently) due to policy action implied by carbon prices above 250 USD/t; low carbon electricity generation reaches a median share of 80% and nearly 100% by 2050. This is driven by early and sustained investment in low carbon sources and storage capacity. The lack of a natural gas bridge globally has regional implications such as a coal-to-renewable switch for China, avoiding an intermediate natural gas stage, and the start of a natural gas phaseout in the USA.
Gaurav Ganti; Robert Brecha; Jessica Strefler; Falko Uekcerdt; Gunnar Luderer; Matthew Gidden. Coal-to-Gas Bridge Incompatible with Paris Agreement Goals. 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleGaurav Ganti, Robert Brecha, Jessica Strefler, Falko Uekcerdt, Gunnar Luderer, Matthew Gidden. Coal-to-Gas Bridge Incompatible with Paris Agreement Goals. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGaurav Ganti; Robert Brecha; Jessica Strefler; Falko Uekcerdt; Gunnar Luderer; Matthew Gidden. 2021. "Coal-to-Gas Bridge Incompatible with Paris Agreement Goals." , no. : 1.
Many Caribbean island nations have historically been heavily dependent on imported fossil fuels for both power and transportation, while at the same time being at an enhanced risk from the impacts of climate change, although their emissions represent a very tiny fraction of the global total responsible for climate change. Small island developing states (SIDSs) are among the leaders in advocating for the ambitious 1.5 °C Paris Agreement target and the transition to 100% sustainable, renewable energy systems. In this work, three central results are presented. First, through GIS mapping of all Caribbean islands, the potential for near-coastal deep-water as a resource for ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) is shown, and these results are coupled with an estimate of the countries for which OTEC would be most advantageous due to a lack of other dispatchable renewable power options. Secondly, hourly data have been utilized to explicitly show the trade-offs between battery storage needs and dispatchable renewable sources such as OTEC in 100% renewable electricity systems, both in technological and economic terms. Finally, the utility of near-shore, open-cycle OTEC with accompanying desalination is shown to enable a higher penetration of renewable energy and lead to lower system levelized costs than those of a conventional fossil fuel system.
Robert Brecha; Katherine Schoenenberger; Masaō Ashtine; Randy Koon Koon. Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion—Flexible Enabling Technology for Variable Renewable Energy Integration in the Caribbean. Energies 2021, 14, 2192 .
AMA StyleRobert Brecha, Katherine Schoenenberger, Masaō Ashtine, Randy Koon Koon. Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion—Flexible Enabling Technology for Variable Renewable Energy Integration in the Caribbean. Energies. 2021; 14 (8):2192.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRobert Brecha; Katherine Schoenenberger; Masaō Ashtine; Randy Koon Koon. 2021. "Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion—Flexible Enabling Technology for Variable Renewable Energy Integration in the Caribbean." Energies 14, no. 8: 2192.
To achieve the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal, current energy systems must be transformed. Australia represents an interesting case for energy system transformation modeling: with a power system dominated by fossil fuels and, specifically, with a heavy coal component, there is at the same time a vast potential for expansion and use of renewables. We used the multi-sectoral Australian Energy Modeling System (AUSeMOSYS) to perform an integrated analysis of implications for the electricity, transport, and selected industry sectors to the mid-century. The state-level resolution allows representation of regional discrepancies in renewable supply and the quantification of inter-regional grid extensions necessary for the physical integration of variable renewables. We investigated the impacts of different CO2 budgets and selected key factors on energy system transformation. Results indicate that coal-fired generation has to be phased out completely by 2030 and a fully renewable electricity supply achieved in the 2030s according to the cost-optimal pathway implied by the 1.5 °C Paris Agreement-compatible carbon budget. Wind and solar PV can play a dominant role in decarbonizing Australia’s energy system with continuous growth of demand due to the strong electrification of linked energy sectors.
Tino Aboumahboub; Robert J. Brecha; Himalaya Bir Shrestha; Ursula Fuentes; Andreas Geiges; William Hare; Michiel Schaeffer; Lara Welder; Matthew J. Gidden. Decarbonization of Australia’s Energy System: Integrated Modeling of the Transformation of Electricity, Transportation, and Industrial Sectors. Energies 2020, 13, 3805 .
AMA StyleTino Aboumahboub, Robert J. Brecha, Himalaya Bir Shrestha, Ursula Fuentes, Andreas Geiges, William Hare, Michiel Schaeffer, Lara Welder, Matthew J. Gidden. Decarbonization of Australia’s Energy System: Integrated Modeling of the Transformation of Electricity, Transportation, and Industrial Sectors. Energies. 2020; 13 (15):3805.
Chicago/Turabian StyleTino Aboumahboub; Robert J. Brecha; Himalaya Bir Shrestha; Ursula Fuentes; Andreas Geiges; William Hare; Michiel Schaeffer; Lara Welder; Matthew J. Gidden. 2020. "Decarbonization of Australia’s Energy System: Integrated Modeling of the Transformation of Electricity, Transportation, and Industrial Sectors." Energies 13, no. 15: 3805.
Fabio Sferra; Mario Krapp; Niklas Roming; Michiel Schaeffer; Aman Malik; Bill Hare; Robert Brecha. Towards optimal 1.5° and 2 °C emission pathways for individual countries: A Finland case study. Energy Policy 2019, 133, 110705 .
AMA StyleFabio Sferra, Mario Krapp, Niklas Roming, Michiel Schaeffer, Aman Malik, Bill Hare, Robert Brecha. Towards optimal 1.5° and 2 °C emission pathways for individual countries: A Finland case study. Energy Policy. 2019; 133 ():110705.
Chicago/Turabian StyleFabio Sferra; Mario Krapp; Niklas Roming; Michiel Schaeffer; Aman Malik; Bill Hare; Robert Brecha. 2019. "Towards optimal 1.5° and 2 °C emission pathways for individual countries: A Finland case study." Energy Policy 133, no. : 110705.
Access to sufficient amounts of energy is a prerequisite for the development of human well-being. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) recognize the interconnectedness of climate change, energy access and development. However, not all SDG targets are quantified, leaving room for ambiguity in fulfilling, for example, the goal of ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all (SDG7). We show how specific sustainable development targets for health indicators are strongly correlated with electricity consumption levels in the poorest of countries. Clear thresholds in per capita electricity consumption of a few hundred kWh per year are identified by analyzing SDG indicator data as a function of per capita country electricity consumption. Those thresholds are strongly correlated with meeting of SDG 3 targets-below the identified thresholds, countries do not meet the SDG targets, while above the threshold there is a clear relationship between increasing consumption of electricity and improvement of SDG indicators. Electricity consumption of 400 kWh per capita is significantly higher than projections made by international agencies for future energy access, but only 5%–10% that of OECD countries. At the very least, the presence of thresholds and historical data patterns requires an understanding of how SDG targets would be met in the absence of this threshold level of electricity access.
Robert J. Brecha. Threshold Electricity Consumption Enables Multiple Sustainable Development Goals. Sustainability 2019, 11, 5047 .
AMA StyleRobert J. Brecha. Threshold Electricity Consumption Enables Multiple Sustainable Development Goals. Sustainability. 2019; 11 (18):5047.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRobert J. Brecha. 2019. "Threshold Electricity Consumption Enables Multiple Sustainable Development Goals." Sustainability 11, no. 18: 5047.
Cost-effective energy efficiency improvements in residential buildings can realize 30% energy reduction within this energy sector for the USA. Unfortunately, audits on residences to identify potential savings, generally based on detailed energy models, tend to over-estimate anticipated savings. This leads to wariness on the part of potential investors. We address this issue by taking an integrated data- and physics-based approach, using residential building geometrical and energy system characteristics (e.g., envelope, appliances, and HVAC systems), as well as historical energy consumption for each residence and weather data, to predict monthly natural gas energy consumption and savings from the adoption of individual energy saving measures. This approach requires only those geometrical and energy system characteristics associated with the greatest potential for realized savings which are also easy to obtain. We construct a dataset from a collection of houses with a wide range of energy effectiveness, and train a single statistical model that accurately predicts natural gas energy consumption in any of the individual residences. The model is then used to estimate the savings from most impactful energy efficiency investments for individual residences, as well as the collective grouping. The specific case considered here involves hundreds of university-owned student residences in the U.S. Midwest. The resulting machine-learning derived model is used to predict monthly natural gas consumption with a mean squared error of 0.00023 for unitary scaled cross-validation data. We use a nearest neighbor approach to validate savings estimates for virtually improved residences, identifying the surrogate residence most like an improved residence. This validation demonstrates a savings prediction accuracy to within 3.5% for most of the measures considered. The validated models are shown capable of prioritizing investments among the collective of residences considered. Sequential adoption of the most cost-effective energy efficiency measure among a group of residences renders a total energy reduction of 36%. The practical implications of this research are significant. This integrated machine-learning and physics-based approach to estimate savings could be used in any utility district and throughout all of the USA to enable district-wide residential energy reduction based upon sequential adoption of the most cost-effective energy measures.
Badr Al Tarhuni; Adel Naji; Philip G. Brodrick; Kevin P. Hallinan; Robert Brecha; Zhongmei Yao. Large scale residential energy efficiency prioritization enabled by machine learning. Energy Efficiency 2019, 12, 2055 -2078.
AMA StyleBadr Al Tarhuni, Adel Naji, Philip G. Brodrick, Kevin P. Hallinan, Robert Brecha, Zhongmei Yao. Large scale residential energy efficiency prioritization enabled by machine learning. Energy Efficiency. 2019; 12 (8):2055-2078.
Chicago/Turabian StyleBadr Al Tarhuni; Adel Naji; Philip G. Brodrick; Kevin P. Hallinan; Robert Brecha; Zhongmei Yao. 2019. "Large scale residential energy efficiency prioritization enabled by machine learning." Energy Efficiency 12, no. 8: 2055-2078.
Carbon lock-in describes a force that perpetuates the fossil fuel energy system despite known risks and cost-effective alternatives, a consequence of which is the slow rate of diffusion of low-carbon technologies. Hundreds of higher education institutions publicly commit to carbon neutrality goals, pledging to reduce energy consumption, to invest in renewable energy, and to offset unavoidable carbon emissions, but these conversations sometimes insufficiently address carbon lock-in effects and their associated future costs. To our knowledge, researchers have not applied the concept of carbon lock-in to higher education institutions and their climate commitments. We hypothesize that carbon lock-in effects will present a major obstacle to achieving carbon neutrality and expose these institutions to significant carbon liability, even with aggressive emissions mitigation efforts. Examples of fossil fuel-consuming infrastructure on our own campus and scenario analysis of emissions from eight higher education institutions in Ohio support this hypothesis. We find that carbon offset purchases to eliminate lock-in emissions could cost these institutions tens to hundreds of millions of dollars. Future regulatory penalties could impose similar costs, even on campuses without climate commitments. As a result, campus operations management should carefully consider further investment in carbon-emitting infrastructure, especially at institutions committing to carbon neutrality.
Matthew Worsham; Robert Brecha. Carbon lock-in: an obstacle in higher education’s decarbonization pathways. Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences 2017, 7, 435 -449.
AMA StyleMatthew Worsham, Robert Brecha. Carbon lock-in: an obstacle in higher education’s decarbonization pathways. Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences. 2017; 7 (3):435-449.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMatthew Worsham; Robert Brecha. 2017. "Carbon lock-in: an obstacle in higher education’s decarbonization pathways." Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences 7, no. 3: 435-449.
Energy efficiency and renewable energy (EERE) investment in multifamily residences in the United States has not kept pace with investment in resident-owned facilities. Split incentives, where owners cannot benefit economically from energy cost savings for residences and resident investment in EERE is not feasible, have posed a significant barrier. A clean energy utility is posited to circumvent this barrier. This utility would be responsible for power purchase from the grid, ideally as a real-time purchase agent from the grid manager; investment in energy efficiency and renewable energy; and demand management through control of water heating, as well as supply-side management through deployment of stored solar at near-peak grid power purchase cost. A clean energy fee is posed for recovery of costs, in contrast to typical consumption strategies (per kWh).A case study approach is employed to evaluate the feasibility of this type of utility of reducing carbon production in this building sector. Considered in the analysis is a 2008 multifamily facility located in the Midwest of the U.S., with apartment level interval meters for both power and water. Historical data from these meters were used to assess the savings and demand-side management potential from investments in improved efficiency lighting, refrigeration, heat pumps, and water heaters, as well as investments in solar PV and storage for supply-side management. The results show that the packaged retrofit EERE investment could yield costs for residents and profits for energy manager comparable to those in the current residential pricing scheme, while reducing grid-sourced energy by 42%. When solar PV and battery storage are added to the solution, it is shown that a clean energy fee structure can cost-effectively drive savings to over 54%. For new construction, even deeper cost effective savings are realizable. This research demonstrates the potential to drive deep energy savings in the multifamily building sector that can lower costs to residents through the establishment of clean energy utilities which recover investments in energy efficiency, demand management, and solar PV/battery systems through resident clean energy fees rather than consumption fees.
A. Raziei; K.P. Hallinan; Robert Brecha. Clean energy utility for multifamily housing in a deregulated energy market. Energy and Buildings 2016, 127, 806 -817.
AMA StyleA. Raziei, K.P. Hallinan, Robert Brecha. Clean energy utility for multifamily housing in a deregulated energy market. Energy and Buildings. 2016; 127 ():806-817.
Chicago/Turabian StyleA. Raziei; K.P. Hallinan; Robert Brecha. 2016. "Clean energy utility for multifamily housing in a deregulated energy market." Energy and Buildings 127, no. : 806-817.
This study assesses global, long-term economic availability of coal, oil and gas within the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenario framework considering alternative assumptions as to highly uncertain future developments of technology, policy and the economy. Diverse sets of trajectories are formulated varying the challenges to mitigation and adaptation of climate change. The potential CO2 emissions from fossil fuels make it a crucial element subject to deep uncertainties. The analysis is based on a well-established dataset of cost-quantity combinations that assumes favorable techno-economic developments, but ignores additional constraints on the extraction sector. This study significantly extends the analysis by specifying alternative assumptions for the fossil fuel sector consistent with the SSP scenario families and applying these filters (mark-ups and scaling factors) to the original dataset, thus resulting in alternative cumulative fossil fuel availability curves. In a Middle-of-the-Road scenario, low cost fossil fuels embody carbon consistent with a RCP6.0 emission profile, if all the CO2 were emitted freely during the 21st century. In scenarios with high challenges to mitigation, the assumed embodied carbon in low-cost fossil fuels can trigger a RCP8.5 scenario; low mitigation challenges scenarios are still consistent with a RCP4.5 scenario
Nico Bauer; Jérôme Hilaire; Robert Brecha; Jae Edmonds; Kejun Jiang; Elmar Kriegler; Hans-Holger Rogner; Fabio Sferra. Assessing global fossil fuel availability in a scenario framework. Energy 2016, 111, 580 -592.
AMA StyleNico Bauer, Jérôme Hilaire, Robert Brecha, Jae Edmonds, Kejun Jiang, Elmar Kriegler, Hans-Holger Rogner, Fabio Sferra. Assessing global fossil fuel availability in a scenario framework. Energy. 2016; 111 ():580-592.
Chicago/Turabian StyleNico Bauer; Jérôme Hilaire; Robert Brecha; Jae Edmonds; Kejun Jiang; Elmar Kriegler; Hans-Holger Rogner; Fabio Sferra. 2016. "Assessing global fossil fuel availability in a scenario framework." Energy 111, no. : 580-592.
We investigate the extent to which future energy transformation pathways meeting ambitious climate change mitigation targets depend on assumptions about economic growth and fossil fuel availability. The analysis synthesizes results from the RoSE multi-model study aiming to identify robust and sensitive features of mitigation pathways under these inherently uncertain drivers of energy and emissions developments. Based on an integrated assessment model comparison exercise, we show that economic growth and fossil resource assumptions substantially affect baseline developments, but in no case they lead to the significant greenhouse gas emission reduction that would be needed to achieve long-term climate targets without dedicated climate policy. The influence of economic growth and fossil resource assumptions on climate mitigation pathways is relatively small due to overriding requirements imposed by long-term climate targets. While baseline assumptions can have substantial effects on mitigation costs and carbon prices, we find that the effects of model differences and the stringency of the climate target are larger compared to that of baseline assumptions. We conclude that inherent uncertainties about socio-economic determinants like economic growth and fossil resource availability can be effectively dealt with in the assessment of mitigation pathways.
Elmar Kriegler; Ioanna Mouratiadou; Gunnar Luderer; Nico Bauer; Robert Brecha; Katherine Calvin; Enrica De Cian; Jae Edmonds; Kejun Jiang; Massimo Tavoni; Ottmar Edenhofer. Will economic growth and fossil fuel scarcity help or hinder climate stabilization? Climatic Change 2016, 136, 7 -22.
AMA StyleElmar Kriegler, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Gunnar Luderer, Nico Bauer, Robert Brecha, Katherine Calvin, Enrica De Cian, Jae Edmonds, Kejun Jiang, Massimo Tavoni, Ottmar Edenhofer. Will economic growth and fossil fuel scarcity help or hinder climate stabilization? Climatic Change. 2016; 136 (1):7-22.
Chicago/Turabian StyleElmar Kriegler; Ioanna Mouratiadou; Gunnar Luderer; Nico Bauer; Robert Brecha; Katherine Calvin; Enrica De Cian; Jae Edmonds; Kejun Jiang; Massimo Tavoni; Ottmar Edenhofer. 2016. "Will economic growth and fossil fuel scarcity help or hinder climate stabilization?" Climatic Change 136, no. 1: 7-22.
Ahmad Murtaza Ershad; Robert J. Brecha; Kevin Hallinan. Analysis of solar photovoltaic and wind power potential in Afghanistan. Renewable Energy 2016, 85, 445 -453.
AMA StyleAhmad Murtaza Ershad, Robert J. Brecha, Kevin Hallinan. Analysis of solar photovoltaic and wind power potential in Afghanistan. Renewable Energy. 2016; 85 ():445-453.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAhmad Murtaza Ershad; Robert J. Brecha; Kevin Hallinan. 2016. "Analysis of solar photovoltaic and wind power potential in Afghanistan." Renewable Energy 85, no. : 445-453.
Falko Ueckerdt; Robert Brecha; Gunnar Luderer. Analyzing major challenges of wind and solar variability in power systems. Renewable Energy 2015, 81, 1 -10.
AMA StyleFalko Ueckerdt, Robert Brecha, Gunnar Luderer. Analyzing major challenges of wind and solar variability in power systems. Renewable Energy. 2015; 81 ():1-10.
Chicago/Turabian StyleFalko Ueckerdt; Robert Brecha; Gunnar Luderer. 2015. "Analyzing major challenges of wind and solar variability in power systems." Renewable Energy 81, no. : 1-10.
Jerome Hilaire; Nico Bauer; Robert J. Brecha. Boom or bust? Mapping out the known unknowns of global shale gas production potential. Energy Economics 2015, 49, 581 -587.
AMA StyleJerome Hilaire, Nico Bauer, Robert J. Brecha. Boom or bust? Mapping out the known unknowns of global shale gas production potential. Energy Economics. 2015; 49 ():581-587.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJerome Hilaire; Nico Bauer; Robert J. Brecha. 2015. "Boom or bust? Mapping out the known unknowns of global shale gas production potential." Energy Economics 49, no. : 581-587.
Jun-Ki Choi; Drew Morrison; Kevin P. Hallinan; Robert J. Brecha. Economic and environmental impacts of community-based residential building energy efficiency investment. Energy 2014, 78, 877 -886.
AMA StyleJun-Ki Choi, Drew Morrison, Kevin P. Hallinan, Robert J. Brecha. Economic and environmental impacts of community-based residential building energy efficiency investment. Energy. 2014; 78 ():877-886.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJun-Ki Choi; Drew Morrison; Kevin P. Hallinan; Robert J. Brecha. 2014. "Economic and environmental impacts of community-based residential building energy efficiency investment." Energy 78, no. : 877-886.
Historical residential electricity data and natural gas consumption data were collected for, respectively, 1,200 and 178 residences in a small town in the USA. These data were merged with local building and weather databases, and energy consumption models were developed for each residence, revealing substantial variation in heating and cooling intensity. After estimating approximate physical building characteristics, energy profiles for each residence were calculated, and savings from adoption of the most cost-effective energy-efficiency measures for each residence were estimated. Effectively, we wish to leverage commonly available data sets to infer characteristics of building envelopes and equipment, without the need for detailed on-site audits. This study evaluates the potential energy savings for the residences studied and, by extrapolation, for the entire town, as a function of cost if the savings measures were to be implemented in rank-order of cost effectiveness to show that savings penetration for the community comes with nonlinearly increasing cost. The results show that nearly a 32 % collective savings in HVAC energy use could be achieved with a collective levelized cost for energy-saving measures of $10/mmBTU saved if the most cost-effective measures among the entire community are implemented first.
R. Villoria-Siegert; P. Brodrick; K. Hallinan; Robert Brecha. Cost-availability curves for hierarchical implementation of residential energy-efficiency measures. Energy Efficiency 2014, 8, 267 -279.
AMA StyleR. Villoria-Siegert, P. Brodrick, K. Hallinan, Robert Brecha. Cost-availability curves for hierarchical implementation of residential energy-efficiency measures. Energy Efficiency. 2014; 8 (2):267-279.
Chicago/Turabian StyleR. Villoria-Siegert; P. Brodrick; K. Hallinan; Robert Brecha. 2014. "Cost-availability curves for hierarchical implementation of residential energy-efficiency measures." Energy Efficiency 8, no. 2: 267-279.
We analyze the dynamics of global fossil resource markets under different assumptions for the supply of fossil fuel resources, development pathways for energy demand, and climate policy settings. Resource markets, in particular the oil market, are characterized by a large discrepancy between costs of resource extraction and commodity prices on international markets. We explain this observation in terms of (a) the intertemporal scarcity rent, (b) regional price differentials arising from trade and transport costs, (c) heterogeneity and inertia in the extraction sector. These effects are captured by the REMIND model. We use the model to explore economic effects of changes in coal, oil and gas markets induced by climate-change mitigation policies. A large share of fossil fuel reserves and resources will be used in the absence of climate policy leading to atmospheric GHG concentrations well beyond a level of 550 ppm CO2-eq. This result holds independently of different assumptions about energy demand and fossil fuel availability. Achieving ambitious climate targets will drastically reduce fossil fuel consumption, in particular the consumption of coal. Conventional oil and gas as well as non-conventional oil reserves are still exhausted. We find the net present value of fossil fuel rent until 2100 at 30tril.US$ with a large share of oil and a small share of coal. This is reduced by 9 and 12tril.US$ to achieve climate stabilization at 550 and 450 ppm CO2-eq, respectively. This loss is, however, overcompensated by revenues from carbon pricing that are 21 and 32tril.US$, respectively. The overcompensation also holds under variations of energy demand and fossil fuel supply.
Nico Bauer; Ioanna Mouratiadou; Gunnar Luderer; Lavinia Baumstark; Robert Brecha; Ottmar Edenhofer; Elmar Kriegler. Global fossil energy markets and climate change mitigation – an analysis with REMIND. Climatic Change 2013, 136, 69 -82.
AMA StyleNico Bauer, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Gunnar Luderer, Lavinia Baumstark, Robert Brecha, Ottmar Edenhofer, Elmar Kriegler. Global fossil energy markets and climate change mitigation – an analysis with REMIND. Climatic Change. 2013; 136 (1):69-82.
Chicago/Turabian StyleNico Bauer; Ioanna Mouratiadou; Gunnar Luderer; Lavinia Baumstark; Robert Brecha; Ottmar Edenhofer; Elmar Kriegler. 2013. "Global fossil energy markets and climate change mitigation – an analysis with REMIND." Climatic Change 136, no. 1: 69-82.
Matthias Kalkuhl; Robert J. Brecha. The carbon rent economics of climate policy. Energy Economics 2013, 39, 89 -99.
AMA StyleMatthias Kalkuhl, Robert J. Brecha. The carbon rent economics of climate policy. Energy Economics. 2013; 39 ():89-99.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMatthias Kalkuhl; Robert J. Brecha. 2013. "The carbon rent economics of climate policy." Energy Economics 39, no. : 89-99.
Jan Christoph Steckel; Robert Brecha; Michael Jakob; Jessica Strefler; Gunnar Luderer. Development without energy? Assessing future scenarios of energy consumption in developing countries. Ecological Economics 2013, 90, 53 -67.
AMA StyleJan Christoph Steckel, Robert Brecha, Michael Jakob, Jessica Strefler, Gunnar Luderer. Development without energy? Assessing future scenarios of energy consumption in developing countries. Ecological Economics. 2013; 90 ():53-67.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJan Christoph Steckel; Robert Brecha; Michael Jakob; Jessica Strefler; Gunnar Luderer. 2013. "Development without energy? Assessing future scenarios of energy consumption in developing countries." Ecological Economics 90, no. : 53-67.
Forty years ago, the results of modeling, as presented in The Limits to Growth, reinvigorated a discussion about exponentially growing consumption of natural resources, ranging from metals to fossil fuels to atmospheric capacity, and how such consumption could not continue far into the future. Fifteen years earlier, M. King Hubbert had made the projection that petroleum production in the continental United States would likely reach a maximum around 1970, followed by a world production maximum a few decades later. The debate about “peak oil”, as it has come to be called, is accompanied by some of the same vociferous denials, myths and ideological polemicizing that have surrounded later representations of The Limits to Growth. In this review, we present several lines of evidence as to why arguments for a near-term peak in world conventional oil production should be taken seriously—both in the sense that there is strong evidence for peak oil and in the sense that being societally unprepared for declining oil production will have serious consequences.
Robert J. Brecha. Ten Reasons to Take Peak Oil Seriously. Sustainability 2013, 5, 664 -694.
AMA StyleRobert J. Brecha. Ten Reasons to Take Peak Oil Seriously. Sustainability. 2013; 5 (2):664-694.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRobert J. Brecha. 2013. "Ten Reasons to Take Peak Oil Seriously." Sustainability 5, no. 2: 664-694.