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Agriculture in West Africa is constrained by several yield-limiting factors, such as poor soil fertility, erratic rainfall distributions and low input systems. Projected changes in climate, thus, pose a threat since crop production is mainly rain-fed. The impact of climate change and its variation on the productivity of cereals in smallholder settings under future production systems in Navrongo, Ghana and Nioro du Rip, Senegal was assessed in this study. Data on management practices obtained from household surveys and projected agricultural development pathways (through stakeholder engagements), soil data, weather data (historical: 1980–2009 and five General Circulation Models; mid-century time slice 2040–2069 for two Representative Concentration Pathways; 4.5 and 8.5) were used for the impact assessment, employing a crop simulation model. Ensemble maize yield changes under the sustainable agricultural development pathway (SDP) were −13 and −16%, while under the unsustainable development pathway (USDP), yield changes were −19 and −20% in Navrongo and Nioro du Rip, respectively. The impact on sorghum and millet were lower than that on maize. Variations in climate change impact among smallholders were high with relative standard deviations (RSD) of between 14% and 60% across the cereals with variability being higher under the USDP, except for millet. Agricultural production systems with higher intensification but with less emphasis on soil conservation (USDP) will be more negatively impacted by climate change compared to relatively sustainable ones (SDP).
Dilys MacCarthy; Myriam Adam; Bright Freduah; Benedicta Fosu-Mensah; Peter Ampim; Mouhamed Ly; Pierre Traore; Samuel Adiku. Climate Change Impact and Variability on Cereal Productivity among Smallholder Farmers under Future Production Systems in West Africa. Sustainability 2021, 13, 5191 .
AMA StyleDilys MacCarthy, Myriam Adam, Bright Freduah, Benedicta Fosu-Mensah, Peter Ampim, Mouhamed Ly, Pierre Traore, Samuel Adiku. Climate Change Impact and Variability on Cereal Productivity among Smallholder Farmers under Future Production Systems in West Africa. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (9):5191.
Chicago/Turabian StyleDilys MacCarthy; Myriam Adam; Bright Freduah; Benedicta Fosu-Mensah; Peter Ampim; Mouhamed Ly; Pierre Traore; Samuel Adiku. 2021. "Climate Change Impact and Variability on Cereal Productivity among Smallholder Farmers under Future Production Systems in West Africa." Sustainability 13, no. 9: 5191.
This study aims to provide improved knowledge and evidence on current (1986–2015) climate variation based on six rainfall indices over five West African countries (Senegal, Niger, Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, and Benin) using the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) dataset. On average, precipitation has increased over the central Sahel and the western Sahel. This increase is associated with increase in the number of rainy days, longer wet spells and shorter dry spells. Over the Guinea Coast, the slight increase in precipitation is associated with an increase in the intensity of rainfall with a shorter duration of wet spells. However, these mean changes in precipitation are not all statistically significant and uniform within a country. While previous studies are focused on regional and sub-regional scales, this study contributes to deliver a climate information at a country level that is more relevant for decision making and for policy makers, and to document climate-related risks within a country to feed impact studies in key sectors of the development, such as agriculture and water resources.
Didi Sacré Regis Sacré Regis M.; Ly Mouhamed; Kouadio Kouakou; Bichet Adeline; Diedhiou Arona; Coulibaly Houebagnon Saint. Houebagnon Saint. J.; Kouadio Koffi Claude Koffi Claude A.; Coulibaly Talnan Jean Talnan Jean H.; Obahoundje Salomon; Savané Issiaka; Salomon Obahoundje. Using the CHIRPS Dataset to Investigate Historical Changes in Precipitation Extremes in West Africa. Climate 2020, 8, 84 .
AMA StyleDidi Sacré Regis Sacré Regis M., Ly Mouhamed, Kouadio Kouakou, Bichet Adeline, Diedhiou Arona, Coulibaly Houebagnon Saint. Houebagnon Saint. J., Kouadio Koffi Claude Koffi Claude A., Coulibaly Talnan Jean Talnan Jean H., Obahoundje Salomon, Savané Issiaka, Salomon Obahoundje. Using the CHIRPS Dataset to Investigate Historical Changes in Precipitation Extremes in West Africa. Climate. 2020; 8 (7):84.
Chicago/Turabian StyleDidi Sacré Regis Sacré Regis M.; Ly Mouhamed; Kouadio Kouakou; Bichet Adeline; Diedhiou Arona; Coulibaly Houebagnon Saint. Houebagnon Saint. J.; Kouadio Koffi Claude Koffi Claude A.; Coulibaly Talnan Jean Talnan Jean H.; Obahoundje Salomon; Savané Issiaka; Salomon Obahoundje. 2020. "Using the CHIRPS Dataset to Investigate Historical Changes in Precipitation Extremes in West Africa." Climate 8, no. 7: 84.
Climate change is estimated to exacerbate existing challenges faced by smallholder farmers in Sub-Sahara Africa. However, limited studies quantify the extent of variation in climate change impact under these systems at the local scale. The Decision Support System for Agro-technological Transfer (DSSAT) was used to quantify variation in climate change impacts on maize yield under current agricultural practices in semi-arid regions of Senegal (Nioro du Rip) and Ghana (Navrongo and Tamale). Multi-benchmark climate models (Mid-Century, 2040–2069 for two Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), and multiple soil and management information from agronomic surveys were used as input for DSSAT. The average impact of climate scenarios on grain yield among farms ranged between −9% and −39% across sites. Substantial variation in climate response exists across farms in the same farming zone with relative standard deviations from 8% to 117% at Nioro du Rip, 13% to 64% in Navrongo and 9% to 37% in Tamale across climate models. Variations in fertilizer application, planting dates and soil types explained the variation in the impact among farms. This study provides insight into the complexities of the impact of climate scenarios on maize yield and the need for better representation of heterogeneous farming systems for optimized outcomes in adaptation and resilience planning in smallholder systems.
Bright S. Freduah; Dilys S. MacCarthy; Myriam Adam; Mouhamed Ly; Alex C. Ruane; Eric C. Timpong-Jones; Pierre S. Traore; Kenneth J. Boote; Cheryl Porter; Samuel G. K. Adiku. Sensitivity of Maize Yield in Smallholder Systems to Climate Scenarios in Semi-Arid Regions of West Africa: Accounting for Variability in Farm Management Practices. Agronomy 2019, 9, 639 .
AMA StyleBright S. Freduah, Dilys S. MacCarthy, Myriam Adam, Mouhamed Ly, Alex C. Ruane, Eric C. Timpong-Jones, Pierre S. Traore, Kenneth J. Boote, Cheryl Porter, Samuel G. K. Adiku. Sensitivity of Maize Yield in Smallholder Systems to Climate Scenarios in Semi-Arid Regions of West Africa: Accounting for Variability in Farm Management Practices. Agronomy. 2019; 9 (10):639.
Chicago/Turabian StyleBright S. Freduah; Dilys S. MacCarthy; Myriam Adam; Mouhamed Ly; Alex C. Ruane; Eric C. Timpong-Jones; Pierre S. Traore; Kenneth J. Boote; Cheryl Porter; Samuel G. K. Adiku. 2019. "Sensitivity of Maize Yield in Smallholder Systems to Climate Scenarios in Semi-Arid Regions of West Africa: Accounting for Variability in Farm Management Practices." Agronomy 9, no. 10: 639.