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In the North Atlantic, euphausiids (krill) form a major link between primary production and predators including commercially exploited fish. This basin is warming very rapidly, with species expected to shift northwards following their thermal tolerances. Here we show, however, that there has been a 50% decline in surface krill abundance over the last 60 years that occurred in situ, with no associated range shift. While we relate these changes to the warming climate, our study is the first to document an in situ squeeze on living space within this system. The warmer isotherms are shifting measurably northwards but cooler isotherms have remained relatively static, stalled by the subpolar fronts in the NW Atlantic. Consequently the two temperatures defining the core of krill distribution (7–13 °C) were 8° of latitude apart 60 years ago but are presently only 4° apart. Over the 60 year period the core latitudinal distribution of euphausiids has remained relatively stable so a ‘habitat squeeze’, with loss of 4° of latitude in living space, could explain the decline in krill. This highlights that, as the temperature warms, not all species can track isotherms and shift northward at the same rate with both losers and winners emerging under the ‘Atlantification’ of the sub-Arctic.
Martin Edwards; Pierre Hélaouët; Eric Goberville; Alistair Lindley; Geraint A. Tarling; Michael T. Burrows; Angus Atkinson. North Atlantic warming over six decades drives decreases in krill abundance with no associated range shift. Communications Biology 2021, 4, 644 .
AMA StyleMartin Edwards, Pierre Hélaouët, Eric Goberville, Alistair Lindley, Geraint A. Tarling, Michael T. Burrows, Angus Atkinson. North Atlantic warming over six decades drives decreases in krill abundance with no associated range shift. Communications Biology. 2021; 4 (1):644.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMartin Edwards; Pierre Hélaouët; Eric Goberville; Alistair Lindley; Geraint A. Tarling; Michael T. Burrows; Angus Atkinson. 2021. "North Atlantic warming over six decades drives decreases in krill abundance with no associated range shift." Communications Biology 4, no. 1: 644.
Annual plankton succession has been investigated for many decades with hypotheses ranging from abiotic to biotic mechanisms being proposed to explain these recurrent patterns. Here, using data collected by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey and models originating from the MacroEcological Theory on the Arrangement of Life, we investigate Annual Phytoplankton Succession (APS) in the North Sea at a species level. Our results show that this phenomenon can be predicted well by models combining photosynthetically active radiation, temperature and macro-nutrients. Our findings suggest that APS originates from the interaction between species’ ecological niches and the annual environmental fluctuations at a community level. We discuss our results in the context of traditional hypotheses formulated to explain this recurrent pattern in the marine field.
Mariarita Caracciolo; Grégory Beaugrand; Pierre Hélaouët; Francois Gevaert; Martin Edwards; Fabrice Lizon; Loïck Kléparski; Eric Goberville. Annual phytoplankton succession results from niche-environment interaction. Journal Of Plankton Research 2020, 43, 85 -102.
AMA StyleMariarita Caracciolo, Grégory Beaugrand, Pierre Hélaouët, Francois Gevaert, Martin Edwards, Fabrice Lizon, Loïck Kléparski, Eric Goberville. Annual phytoplankton succession results from niche-environment interaction. Journal Of Plankton Research. 2020; 43 (1):85-102.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMariarita Caracciolo; Grégory Beaugrand; Pierre Hélaouët; Francois Gevaert; Martin Edwards; Fabrice Lizon; Loïck Kléparski; Eric Goberville. 2020. "Annual phytoplankton succession results from niche-environment interaction." Journal Of Plankton Research 43, no. 1: 85-102.
The spectre of increasing impacts on exploited fish stocks in consequence of warmer climate conditions has become a major concern over the last decades. It is now imperative to improve the way we project the effects of future climate warming on fisheries. While estimating future climate‐induced changes in fish distribution is an important contribution to sustainable resource management, the impacts on European small pelagic fish—representing over 50% of the landings in the Mediterranean and Black Sea between 2000 and 2013—are yet largely understudied. Here, we investigated potential changes in the spatial distribution of seven of the most harvested small pelagic fish species in Europe under several climate change scenarios over the 21st century. For each species, we considered eight Species Distribution Models (SDMs), five General Circulation Models (GCMs) and three emission scenarios (the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways; RCPs). Under all scenarios, our results revealed that the environmental suitability for most of the seven species may strongly decrease in the Mediterranean and western North Sea while increasing in the Black and Baltic Seas. This potential northward range expansion of species is supported by a strong convergence among projections and a low variability between RCPs. Under the most pessimistic scenario (RCP8.5), climate‐related local extinctions were expected in the south‐eastern Mediterranean basin. Our results highlight that a multi‐SDM, multi‐GCM, multi‐RCP approach is needed to produce more robust ecological scenarios of changes in exploited fish stocks in order to better anticipate the economic and social consequences of global climate change.
Alexandre Schickele; Eric Goberville; Boris Leroy; Gregory Beaugrand; Tarek Hattab; Patrice Francour; Virginie Raybaud. European small pelagic fish distribution under global change scenarios. Fish and Fisheries 2020, 22, 212 -225.
AMA StyleAlexandre Schickele, Eric Goberville, Boris Leroy, Gregory Beaugrand, Tarek Hattab, Patrice Francour, Virginie Raybaud. European small pelagic fish distribution under global change scenarios. Fish and Fisheries. 2020; 22 (1):212-225.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAlexandre Schickele; Eric Goberville; Boris Leroy; Gregory Beaugrand; Tarek Hattab; Patrice Francour; Virginie Raybaud. 2020. "European small pelagic fish distribution under global change scenarios." Fish and Fisheries 22, no. 1: 212-225.
Coastal marine ecosystems worldwide are not only highly affected by the effects of human activities, but also by the influence of natural climate variability and global climate change. However, it is still a challenge to assess the spatial and temporal scales at which forcings operate and their persistence over time, to determine the vulnerability of coastal ecosystems to climate changes and climate extreme events, and therefore to anticipate the ecological and biological responses of these areas. By investigating these knowledge gaps, our recent studies have shown that the combination of large- and local-scale hydro-climatic influences have induced obvious changes in the physical and chemical characteristics of coastal waters in Western Europe. Because of the complex and non-linear climate-coastal ecosystem relationships, a thorough understanding of the underlying processes is still needed, while extending the spatial and temporal scales of inference. Here, using both high- and low-frequency observations collected from 1998 onwards at the outlet of the Bay of Brest and off Roscoff, we described and documented monthly changes in (1) sea surface temperature, (2) sea surface salinity, (3) river discharges and (4) precipitation patterns. By focusing on the winter period (from December to February), our study revealed that coastal waters of Western Europe are not only significantly connected to large-scale atmospheric conditions and patterns, but also to local-scale drivers such as river discharges. Current strong impacts of regional climate extreme events worldwide led us to devote more attention on understanding the possible impacts of such episodes on the long-term variability and trends of these ecosystems in coastal waters of Western Europe. The signature of extreme events in the Bay of Brest is described and the numerical simulations allowed us to highlight the link between local rivers and changes in salinity.
Guillaume Charria; Peggy Rimmelin-Maury; Eric Goberville; Stéphane L’Helguen; Nicolas Barrier; Christine David-Beausire; Thierry Cariou; Emilie Grossteffan; Michel Repecaud; Loïc Quémener; Sébastien Theetten; Paul Tréguer. Temperature and Salinity Changes in Coastal Waters of Western Europe: Variability, Trends and Extreme Events. Evolution of Marine Coastal Ecosystems under the Pressure of Global Changes 2020, 207 -226.
AMA StyleGuillaume Charria, Peggy Rimmelin-Maury, Eric Goberville, Stéphane L’Helguen, Nicolas Barrier, Christine David-Beausire, Thierry Cariou, Emilie Grossteffan, Michel Repecaud, Loïc Quémener, Sébastien Theetten, Paul Tréguer. Temperature and Salinity Changes in Coastal Waters of Western Europe: Variability, Trends and Extreme Events. Evolution of Marine Coastal Ecosystems under the Pressure of Global Changes. 2020; ():207-226.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGuillaume Charria; Peggy Rimmelin-Maury; Eric Goberville; Stéphane L’Helguen; Nicolas Barrier; Christine David-Beausire; Thierry Cariou; Emilie Grossteffan; Michel Repecaud; Loïc Quémener; Sébastien Theetten; Paul Tréguer. 2020. "Temperature and Salinity Changes in Coastal Waters of Western Europe: Variability, Trends and Extreme Events." Evolution of Marine Coastal Ecosystems under the Pressure of Global Changes , no. : 207-226.
Although we understand how species evolve, we do not appreciate how this process has filled an empty world to create current patterns of biodiversity. Here, we conduct a numerical experiment to determine why biodiversity varies spatially on our planet. We show that spatial patterns of biodiversity are mathematically constrained and arise from the interaction between the species’ ecological niches and environmental variability that propagates to the community level. Our results allow us to explain key biological observations such as (a) latitudinal biodiversity gradients (LBGs) and especially why oceanic LBGs primarily peak at midlatitudes while terrestrial LBGs generally exhibit a maximum at the equator, (b) the greater biodiversity on land even though life first evolved in the sea, (c) the greater species richness at the seabed than at the sea surface, and (d) the higher neritic (i.e., species occurring in areas with a bathymetry lower than 200 m) than oceanic (i.e., species occurring in areas with a bathymetry higher than 200 m) biodiversity. Our results suggest that a mathematical constraint originating from a fundamental ecological interaction, that is, the niche–environment interaction, fixes the number of species that can establish regionally by speciation or migration.
Gregory Beaugrand; Richard Kirby; Eric Goberville. The mathematical influence on global patterns of biodiversity. Ecology and Evolution 2020, 10, 6494 -6511.
AMA StyleGregory Beaugrand, Richard Kirby, Eric Goberville. The mathematical influence on global patterns of biodiversity. Ecology and Evolution. 2020; 10 (13):6494-6511.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGregory Beaugrand; Richard Kirby; Eric Goberville. 2020. "The mathematical influence on global patterns of biodiversity." Ecology and Evolution 10, no. 13: 6494-6511.
The distribution of marine organisms is strongly influenced by climatic gradients worldwide. The ecological niche (sensu Hutchinson) of a species, i.e. the combination of environmental tolerances and resources required by an organism, interacts with the environment to determine its geographical range. This duality between niche and distribution allows climate change biologists to model potential species’ distributions from past to future conditions. While species distribution models (SDMs) have been intensively used over the last years, no consensual framework to parametrise, calibrate and evaluate models has emerged. Here, to model the contemporary (1990–2017) spatial distribution of seven highly harvested European small pelagic fish species, we implemented a comprehensive and replicable numerical procedure based on 8 SDMs (7 from the Biomod2 framework plus the NPPEN model). This procedure considers critical issues in species distribution modelling such as sampling bias, pseudo-absence selection, model evaluation and uncertainty quantification respectively through (i) an environmental filtration of observation data, (ii) a convex hull based pseudo-absence selection, (iii) a multi-criteria evaluation of model outputs and (iv) an ensemble modelling approach. By mitigating environmental sampling bias in observation data and by identifying the most ecologically relevant predictors, our framework helps to improve the modelling of fish species’ environmental suitability. Not only average temperature, but also temperature variability appears as major factors driving small pelagic fish distribution, and areas of highest environmental suitability were found along the north-western Mediterranean coasts, the Bay of Biscay and the North Sea. We demonstrate in this study that the use of appropriate data pre-processing techniques, an often-overlooked step in modelling, increase model predictive performance, strengthening our confidence in the reliability of predictions.
Alexandre Schickele; Boris Leroy; Gregory Beaugrand; Eric Goberville; Tarek Hattab; Patrice Francour; Virginie Raybaud. Modelling European small pelagic fish distribution: Methodological insights. Ecological Modelling 2019, 416, 108902 .
AMA StyleAlexandre Schickele, Boris Leroy, Gregory Beaugrand, Eric Goberville, Tarek Hattab, Patrice Francour, Virginie Raybaud. Modelling European small pelagic fish distribution: Methodological insights. Ecological Modelling. 2019; 416 ():108902.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAlexandre Schickele; Boris Leroy; Gregory Beaugrand; Eric Goberville; Tarek Hattab; Patrice Francour; Virginie Raybaud. 2019. "Modelling European small pelagic fish distribution: Methodological insights." Ecological Modelling 416, no. : 108902.
Extreme events such as heat waves have increased in frequency and duration over the last decades. Under future climate scenarios, these discrete climatic events are expected to become even more recurrent and severe. Heat waves are particularly important on rocky intertidal shores, one of the most thermally variable and stressful habitats on the planet. Intertidal mussels, such as the blue mussel Mytilus edulis, are ecosystem engineers of global ecological and economic importance, that occasionally suffer mass mortalities. This study investigates the potential causes and consequences of a mass mortality event of M. edulis that occurred along the French coast of the eastern English Channel in summer 2018. We used an integrative, climatological and ecophysiological methodology based on three complementary approaches. We first showed that the observed mass mortality (representing 49 to 59% of the annual commercial value of local recreational and professional fisheries combined) occurred under relatively moderate heat wave conditions. This result indicates that M. edulis body temperature is controlled by non-climatic heat sources instead of climatic heat sources, as previously reported for intertidal gastropods. Using biomimetic loggers (i.e. ‘robomussels’), we identified four periods of 5 to 6 consecutive days when M. edulis body temperatures consistently reached more than 30 °C, and occasionally more than 35 °C and even more than 40 °C. We subsequently reproduced these body temperature patterns in the laboratory to infer M. edulis thermal tolerance under conditions of repeated heat stress. We found that thermal tolerance consistently decreased with the number of successive daily exposures. These results are discussed in the context of an era of global change where heat events are expected to increase in intensity and frequency, especially in the eastern English Channel where the low frequency of commercially exploitable mussels already questions both their ecological and commercial sustainability.
Laurent Seuront; Katy R. Nicastro; Gerardo I. Zardi; Eric Goberville. Decreased thermal tolerance under recurrent heat stress conditions explains summer mass mortality of the blue mussel Mytilus edulis. Scientific Reports 2019, 9, 1 -14.
AMA StyleLaurent Seuront, Katy R. Nicastro, Gerardo I. Zardi, Eric Goberville. Decreased thermal tolerance under recurrent heat stress conditions explains summer mass mortality of the blue mussel Mytilus edulis. Scientific Reports. 2019; 9 (1):1-14.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLaurent Seuront; Katy R. Nicastro; Gerardo I. Zardi; Eric Goberville. 2019. "Decreased thermal tolerance under recurrent heat stress conditions explains summer mass mortality of the blue mussel Mytilus edulis." Scientific Reports 9, no. 1: 1-14.
Julien Richirt; Eric Goberville; Vania Ruiz-Gonzalez; Benoît Sautour. Local changes in copepod composition and diversity in two coastal systems of Western Europe. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 2019, 227, 1 .
AMA StyleJulien Richirt, Eric Goberville, Vania Ruiz-Gonzalez, Benoît Sautour. Local changes in copepod composition and diversity in two coastal systems of Western Europe. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science. 2019; 227 ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJulien Richirt; Eric Goberville; Vania Ruiz-Gonzalez; Benoît Sautour. 2019. "Local changes in copepod composition and diversity in two coastal systems of Western Europe." Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 227, no. : 1.
Artificial reefs (ARs) are deployed worldwide as they are expected to support fisheries management. While the underlying mechanisms remain widely debated, production was recently determined as the most probable cause of increases in fish biomass. Changes in fish biomass in a temperate AR system were investigated from December 2008 to November 2015 by considering seven distinct functional groups, and isotopic functional indices were used to identify how these changes may have affected organic matter (OM) fluxes. Contrasting patterns of change were observed between functional trophic groups, highlighting that combining the biomass of all species present in a community is inappropriate for assessing AR-induced effects. Benthic sedentary species predominated (>75% of the total biomass) through massive production, with a 68-fold increase in mean biomass over the study period. Mobile species tended to vary seasonally, suggesting only a slight influence of AR. Zooplanktivores biomass decreased over the 6-year period, as a possible result of changes in environmental conditions. Isotopic indices helped to reveal both the community maturation and the importance of local OM sources not only in supporting fish biomass production but also in attracting pelagic species. Our results corroborate that production and attraction are two extremes of a range of contrasting patterns and highlight the importance of considering the specific responses of functional components of fish communities to accurately describe changes in AR functioning. Functional attributes such as trophic traits, habitat use and dispersal abilities must not be overlooked as they modulate fish species responses to the deployment of man-made rocky substrates.
Pierre Cresson; Laurence Le Direach; Elodie Rouanet; Eric Goberville; Patrick Astruch; Mélanie Ourgaud; Mireille Harmelin-Vivien. Functional traits unravel temporal changes in fish biomass production on artificial reefs. Marine Environmental Research 2019, 145, 137 -146.
AMA StylePierre Cresson, Laurence Le Direach, Elodie Rouanet, Eric Goberville, Patrick Astruch, Mélanie Ourgaud, Mireille Harmelin-Vivien. Functional traits unravel temporal changes in fish biomass production on artificial reefs. Marine Environmental Research. 2019; 145 ():137-146.
Chicago/Turabian StylePierre Cresson; Laurence Le Direach; Elodie Rouanet; Eric Goberville; Patrick Astruch; Mélanie Ourgaud; Mireille Harmelin-Vivien. 2019. "Functional traits unravel temporal changes in fish biomass production on artificial reefs." Marine Environmental Research 145, no. : 137-146.
Impermanence is an ecological principle1 but there are times when changes occur nonlinearly as abrupt community shifts (ACSs) that transform the ecosystem state and the goods and services it provides2. Here, we present a model based on niche theory3 to explain and predict ACSs at the global scale. We test our model using 14 multi-decadal time series of marine metazoans from zooplankton to fish, spanning all latitudes and the shelf to the open ocean. Predicted and observed fluctuations correspond, with both identifying ACSs at the end of the 1980s4,5,6,7 and 1990s5,8. We show that these ACSs coincide with changes in climate that alter local thermal regimes, which in turn interact with the thermal niche of species to trigger long-term and sometimes abrupt shifts at the community level. A large-scale ACS is predicted after 2014—unprecedented in magnitude and extent—coinciding with a strong El Niño event and major shifts in Northern Hemisphere climate. Our results underline the sensitivity of the Arctic Ocean, where unprecedented melting may reorganize biological communities5,9, and suggest an increase in the size and consequences of ACS events in a warming world.
G. Beaugrand; A. Conversi; A. Atkinson; J. Cloern; S. Chiba; S. Fonda-Umani; R. R. Kirby; C. H. Greene; E. Goberville; S. A. Otto; P. C. Reid; L. Stemmann; M. Edwards. Prediction of unprecedented biological shifts in the global ocean. Nature Climate Change 2019, 9, 237 -243.
AMA StyleG. Beaugrand, A. Conversi, A. Atkinson, J. Cloern, S. Chiba, S. Fonda-Umani, R. R. Kirby, C. H. Greene, E. Goberville, S. A. Otto, P. C. Reid, L. Stemmann, M. Edwards. Prediction of unprecedented biological shifts in the global ocean. Nature Climate Change. 2019; 9 (3):237-243.
Chicago/Turabian StyleG. Beaugrand; A. Conversi; A. Atkinson; J. Cloern; S. Chiba; S. Fonda-Umani; R. R. Kirby; C. H. Greene; E. Goberville; S. A. Otto; P. C. Reid; L. Stemmann; M. Edwards. 2019. "Prediction of unprecedented biological shifts in the global ocean." Nature Climate Change 9, no. 3: 237-243.
The Atlantic bluefin tuna (hereafter referred to as “bluefin tuna”), one of the world’s most valuable and exploited fish species, has been declining in abundance throughout the Atlantic from the 1960s until the mid-2000s. Following the establishment of drastic management measures, the stock has started to recover recently and, as a result, stakeholders have raised catch quotas by 50% for the period 2017–2020. However, stock assessments still omit the natural, long-term variability in the species distribution. Here, we explore the century-scale fluctuations in bluefin tuna abundance and distribution to demonstrate a prevailing influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) to provide new insights into both the collapse of the Nordic bluefin tuna fishery circa 1963 and the recent increase in bluefin tuna abundance in the Northeast Atlantic. Our results demonstrate how climatic variability can modulate the distribution of a large migrating species to generate rapid changes in its regional abundance, and we argue that climatic variability must not be overlooked in stock management plans for effective conservation.
Robin Faillettaz; Grégory Beaugrand; Eric Goberville; Richard R. Kirby. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillations drive the basin-scale distribution of Atlantic bluefin tuna. Science Advances 2019, 5, eaar6993 .
AMA StyleRobin Faillettaz, Grégory Beaugrand, Eric Goberville, Richard R. Kirby. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillations drive the basin-scale distribution of Atlantic bluefin tuna. Science Advances. 2019; 5 (1):eaar6993.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRobin Faillettaz; Grégory Beaugrand; Eric Goberville; Richard R. Kirby. 2019. "Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillations drive the basin-scale distribution of Atlantic bluefin tuna." Science Advances 5, no. 1: eaar6993.
Species richness is greater in places where the number of potential niches is high. Consequently, the niche may be fundamental for understanding the arrangement of life and especially, the establishment and maintenance of the well-known Latitudinal Biodiversity Gradient (LBG). However, not all potential niches may be occupied fully in a habitat, as measured by niche vacancy/saturation. Here, we theoretically reconstruct oceanic biodiversity and analyse modeled and observed data together to examine patterns in niche saturation (i.e. the ratio between observed and theoretical biodiversity of a given taxon) for several taxonomic groups. Our results led us to hypothesize that the arrangement of marine life is constrained by the distribution of the maximal number of species’ niches available, which represents a fundamental mathematical limit to the number of species that can co-exist locally. We liken this arrangement to a type of chessboard where each square on the board is a geographic area, itself comprising a distinct number of sub-squares (species’ niches). Each sub-square on the chessboard can accept a unique species of a given ecological guild, whose occurrence is determined by speciation/extinction. Because of the interaction between the thermal niche and changes in temperature, our study shows that the chessboard has more sub-squares at mid-latitudes and we suggest that many clades should exhibit a LBG because their probability of emergence should be higher in the tropics where more niches are available. Our work reveals that each taxonomic group has its own unique chessboard and that global niche saturation increases when organismal complexity decreases. As a result, the mathematical influence of the chessboard is likely to be more prominent for taxonomic groups with low (e.g. plankton) than great (e.g. mammals) biocomplexity. Our study therefore reveals the complex interplay between a fundamental mathematical constraint on biodiversity resulting from the interaction between the species’ ecological niche and fluctuations in the environmental regime (here, temperature), which has a predictable component and a stochastic-like biological influence (diversification rates, origination and clade age) that may alter or blur the former.
Grégory Beaugrand; Christophe Luczak; Eric Goberville; Richard R. Kirby. Marine biodiversity and the chessboard of life. PLOS ONE 2018, 13, e0194006 .
AMA StyleGrégory Beaugrand, Christophe Luczak, Eric Goberville, Richard R. Kirby. Marine biodiversity and the chessboard of life. PLOS ONE. 2018; 13 (3):e0194006.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGrégory Beaugrand; Christophe Luczak; Eric Goberville; Richard R. Kirby. 2018. "Marine biodiversity and the chessboard of life." PLOS ONE 13, no. 3: e0194006.
Vincent Bouchet; Eric Goberville; Fabrizio Frontalini. Benthic foraminifera to assess Ecological Quality Statuses in Italian transitional waters. Ecological Indicators 2018, 84, 130 -139.
AMA StyleVincent Bouchet, Eric Goberville, Fabrizio Frontalini. Benthic foraminifera to assess Ecological Quality Statuses in Italian transitional waters. Ecological Indicators. 2018; 84 ():130-139.
Chicago/Turabian StyleVincent Bouchet; Eric Goberville; Fabrizio Frontalini. 2018. "Benthic foraminifera to assess Ecological Quality Statuses in Italian transitional waters." Ecological Indicators 84, no. : 130-139.
Beyond the direct influence of climate change on species distribution and phenology, indirect effects may also arise from perturbations in species interactions. Infectious diseases are strong biotic forces that can precipitate population declines and lead to biodiversity loss. It has been shown in forest ecosystems worldwide that at least 10% of trees are vulnerable to extinction and pathogens are increasingly implicated. In Europe, the emerging ash dieback disease caused by the fungus Hymenoscyphus fraxineus, commonly called Chalara fraxinea, is causing a severe mortality of common ash trees (Fraxinus excelsior); this is raising concerns for the persistence of this widespread tree, which is both a key component of forest ecosystems and economically important for timber production. Here, we show how the pathogen and climate change may interact to affect the future spatial distribution of the common ash. Using two presence-only models, seven General Circulation Models and four emission scenarios, we show that climate change, by affecting the host and the pathogen separately, may uncouple their spatial distribution to create a mismatch in species interaction and so a lowering of disease transmission. Consequently, as climate change expands the ranges of both species polewards it may alleviate the ash dieback crisis in southern and occidental regions at the same time.
Eric Goberville; Nina-Coralie Hautekèete; Richard R. Kirby; Yves Piquot; Christophe Luczak; Grégory Beaugrand. Climate change and the ash dieback crisis. Scientific Reports 2016, 6, 35303 .
AMA StyleEric Goberville, Nina-Coralie Hautekèete, Richard R. Kirby, Yves Piquot, Christophe Luczak, Grégory Beaugrand. Climate change and the ash dieback crisis. Scientific Reports. 2016; 6 (1):35303.
Chicago/Turabian StyleEric Goberville; Nina-Coralie Hautekèete; Richard R. Kirby; Yves Piquot; Christophe Luczak; Grégory Beaugrand. 2016. "Climate change and the ash dieback crisis." Scientific Reports 6, no. 1: 35303.
Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur.
Philip C. Reid; Renata E. Hari; Gregory Beaugrand; David M. Livingstone; Christoph Marty; Dietmar Straile; Jonathan Barichivich; Eric Goberville; Rita Adrian; Yasuyuki Aono; Ross Brown; James Foster; Pavel Groisman; Pierre Helaouët; Huang-Hsiung Hsu; Richard Kirby; Jeff Knight; Alexandra Kraberg; Jianping Li; Tzu-Ting Lo; Ranga Myneni; Ryan P. North; J. Alan Pounds; Tim Sparks; René Stübi; Yongjun Tian; Karen Wiltshire; Dong Xiao; Zaichun Zhu. Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift. Global Change Biology 2015, 22, 682 -703.
AMA StylePhilip C. Reid, Renata E. Hari, Gregory Beaugrand, David M. Livingstone, Christoph Marty, Dietmar Straile, Jonathan Barichivich, Eric Goberville, Rita Adrian, Yasuyuki Aono, Ross Brown, James Foster, Pavel Groisman, Pierre Helaouët, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Richard Kirby, Jeff Knight, Alexandra Kraberg, Jianping Li, Tzu-Ting Lo, Ranga Myneni, Ryan P. North, J. Alan Pounds, Tim Sparks, René Stübi, Yongjun Tian, Karen Wiltshire, Dong Xiao, Zaichun Zhu. Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift. Global Change Biology. 2015; 22 (2):682-703.
Chicago/Turabian StylePhilip C. Reid; Renata E. Hari; Gregory Beaugrand; David M. Livingstone; Christoph Marty; Dietmar Straile; Jonathan Barichivich; Eric Goberville; Rita Adrian; Yasuyuki Aono; Ross Brown; James Foster; Pavel Groisman; Pierre Helaouët; Huang-Hsiung Hsu; Richard Kirby; Jeff Knight; Alexandra Kraberg; Jianping Li; Tzu-Ting Lo; Ranga Myneni; Ryan P. North; J. Alan Pounds; Tim Sparks; René Stübi; Yongjun Tian; Karen Wiltshire; Dong Xiao; Zaichun Zhu. 2015. "Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift." Global Change Biology 22, no. 2: 682-703.
Many studies have implied significant effects of global climate change on marine life. Setting these alterations into the context of historical natural change has not been attempted so far, however. Here, using a theoretical framework, we estimate the sensitivity of marine pelagic biodiversity to temperature change and evaluate its past (mid-Pliocene and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)), contemporaneous (1960–2013) and future (2081–2100; 4 scenarios of warming) vulnerability. Our biodiversity reconstructions were highly correlated to real data for several pelagic taxa for the contemporary and the past (LGM and mid-Pliocene) periods. Our results indicate that local species loss will be a prominent phenomenon of climate warming in permanently stratified regions, and that local species invasion will prevail in temperate and polar biomes under all climate change scenarios. Although a small amount of warming under the RCP2.6 scenario is expected to have a minor influence on marine pelagic biodiversity, moderate warming (RCP4.5) will increase by threefold the changes already observed over the past 50 years. Of most concern is that severe warming (RCP6.0 and 8.5) will affect marine pelagic biodiversity to a greater extent than temperature changes that took place between either the LGM or the mid-Pliocene and today, over an area of between 50 (RCP6.0: 46.9–52.4%) and 70% (RCP8.5: 69.4–73.4%) of the global ocean.
Gregory Beaugrand; Martin Edwards; Virginie Raybaud; Eric Goberville; Richard R. Kirby. Future vulnerability of marine biodiversity compared with contemporary and past changes. Nature Climate Change 2015, 5, 695 -701.
AMA StyleGregory Beaugrand, Martin Edwards, Virginie Raybaud, Eric Goberville, Richard R. Kirby. Future vulnerability of marine biodiversity compared with contemporary and past changes. Nature Climate Change. 2015; 5 (7):695-701.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGregory Beaugrand; Martin Edwards; Virginie Raybaud; Eric Goberville; Richard R. Kirby. 2015. "Future vulnerability of marine biodiversity compared with contemporary and past changes." Nature Climate Change 5, no. 7: 695-701.
Céline Rolet; Nicolas Spilmont; Dominique Davoult; Eric Goberville; Christophe Luczak. Anthropogenic impact on macrobenthic communities and consequences for shorebirds in Northern France: A complex response. Biological Conservation 2015, 184, 396 -404.
AMA StyleCéline Rolet, Nicolas Spilmont, Dominique Davoult, Eric Goberville, Christophe Luczak. Anthropogenic impact on macrobenthic communities and consequences for shorebirds in Northern France: A complex response. Biological Conservation. 2015; 184 ():396-404.
Chicago/Turabian StyleCéline Rolet; Nicolas Spilmont; Dominique Davoult; Eric Goberville; Christophe Luczak. 2015. "Anthropogenic impact on macrobenthic communities and consequences for shorebirds in Northern France: A complex response." Biological Conservation 184, no. : 396-404.
Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are increasingly used by ecologists to project species potential future distribution. However, the application of such models may be challenging, and some caveats have already been identified. While studies have generally shown that projections may be sensitive to the ENM applied or the emission scenario, to name just a few, the sensitivity of ENM‐based scenarios to General Circulation Models (GCMs) has been often underappreciated. Here, using a multi‐GCM and multi‐emission scenario approach, we evaluated the variability in projected distributions under future climate conditions. We modeled the ecological realized niche (sensu Hutchinson) and predicted the baseline distribution of species with contrasting spatial patterns and representative of two major functional groups of European trees: the dwarf birch and the sweet chestnut. Their future distributions were then projected onto future climatic conditions derived from seven GCMs and four emissions scenarios using the new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 report. Uncertainties arising from GCMs and those resulting from emissions scenarios were quantified and compared. Our study reveals that scenarios of future species distribution exhibit broad differences, depending not only on emissions scenarios but also on GCMs. We found that the between‐GCM variability was greater than the between‐RCP variability for the next decades and both types of variability reached a similar level at the end of this century. Our result highlights that a combined multi‐GCM and multi‐RCP approach is needed to better consider potential trajectories and uncertainties in future species distributions. In all cases, between‐GCM variability increases with the level of warming, and if nothing is done to alleviate global warming, future species spatial distribution may become more and more difficult to anticipate. When future species spatial distributions are examined, we propose to use a large number of GCMs and RCPs to better anticipate potential trajectories and quantify uncertainties.
Eric Goberville; Gregory Beaugrand; Nina-Coralie Hautekèete; Yves Piquot; Christophe Luczak. Uncertainties in the projection of species distributions related to general circulation models. Ecology and Evolution 2015, 5, 1100 -1116.
AMA StyleEric Goberville, Gregory Beaugrand, Nina-Coralie Hautekèete, Yves Piquot, Christophe Luczak. Uncertainties in the projection of species distributions related to general circulation models. Ecology and Evolution. 2015; 5 (5):1100-1116.
Chicago/Turabian StyleEric Goberville; Gregory Beaugrand; Nina-Coralie Hautekèete; Yves Piquot; Christophe Luczak. 2015. "Uncertainties in the projection of species distributions related to general circulation models." Ecology and Evolution 5, no. 5: 1100-1116.
There is now a strong scientific consensus that coastal marine systems of Western Europe are highly sensitive to the combined effects of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change. However, it still remains challenging to assess the spatial and temporal scales at which climate influence operates. While large-scale hydro-climatic indices, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP) and the weather regimes such as the Atlantic Ridge (AR), are known to be relevant predictors of physical processes, changes in coastal waters can also be related to local hydro-meteorological and geochemical forcing. Here, we study the temporal variability of physical and chemical characteristics of coastal waters located at about 48°N over the period 1998-2013 using (1) sea surface temperature, (2) sea surface salinity and (3) nutrient concentration observations for two coastal sites located at the outlet of the Bay of Brest and off Roscoff, (4) river discharges of the major tributaries close to these two sites and (5) regional and local precipitation data over the region of interest. Focusing on the winter months, we characterize the physical and chemical variability of these coastal waters and document changes in both precipitation and river runoffs. Our study reveals that variability in coastal waters is connected to the large-scale North Atlantic atmospheric circulation but is also partly explained by local river influences. Indeed, while the NAO is strongly related to changes in sea surface temperature at the Brest and Roscoff sites, the EAP and the AR have a major influence on precipitations, which in turn modulate river discharges that impact sea surface salinity at the scale of the two coastal stations
Paul Tréguer; Eric Goberville; Nicolas Barrier; Stéphane L'Helguen; Pascal Morin; Yann Bozec; Peggy Rimmelin-Maury; Marie Czamanski; Emilie Grossteffan; Thierry Cariou; Michel Répécaud; Loic Quéméner. Large and local-scale influences on physical and chemical characteristics of coastal waters of Western Europe during winter. Journal of Marine Systems 2014, 139, 79 -90.
AMA StylePaul Tréguer, Eric Goberville, Nicolas Barrier, Stéphane L'Helguen, Pascal Morin, Yann Bozec, Peggy Rimmelin-Maury, Marie Czamanski, Emilie Grossteffan, Thierry Cariou, Michel Répécaud, Loic Quéméner. Large and local-scale influences on physical and chemical characteristics of coastal waters of Western Europe during winter. Journal of Marine Systems. 2014; 139 ():79-90.
Chicago/Turabian StylePaul Tréguer; Eric Goberville; Nicolas Barrier; Stéphane L'Helguen; Pascal Morin; Yann Bozec; Peggy Rimmelin-Maury; Marie Czamanski; Emilie Grossteffan; Thierry Cariou; Michel Répécaud; Loic Quéméner. 2014. "Large and local-scale influences on physical and chemical characteristics of coastal waters of Western Europe during winter." Journal of Marine Systems 139, no. : 79-90.
Phenological, biogeographic and community shifts are among the reported responses of marine ecosystems and their species to climate change. However, despite both the profound consequences for ecosystem functioning and services, our understanding of the root causes underlying these biological changes remains rudimentary. Here, we show that a significant proportion of the responses of species and communities to climate change are deterministic at some emergent spatio-temporal scales, enabling testable predictions and more accurate projections of future changes. We propose a theory based on the concept of the ecological niche to connect phenological, biogeographic and long-term community shifts. The theory explains approximately 70% of the phenological and biogeographic shifts of a key zooplankton Calanus finmarchicus in the North Atlantic and approximately 56% of the long-term shifts in copepods observed in the North Sea during the period 1958–2009.
Grégory Beaugrand; Eric Goberville; Christophe Luczak; Richard R Kirby. Marine biological shifts and climate. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 2014, 281, 20133350 .
AMA StyleGrégory Beaugrand, Eric Goberville, Christophe Luczak, Richard R Kirby. Marine biological shifts and climate. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 2014; 281 (1783):20133350.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGrégory Beaugrand; Eric Goberville; Christophe Luczak; Richard R Kirby. 2014. "Marine biological shifts and climate." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 281, no. 1783: 20133350.