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Chang-Yi Liu
Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization, Xicheng District, Beijing 100031, China

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Journal article
Published: 23 September 2020 in Advances in Climate Change Research
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The quantitative functions for climate damages provide theoretical ground for the cost-benefit analysis in climate change economics, and they are also critical for linking climate module with economic module in the Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). Nevertheless, it is necessary for IAMs to update sectoral climate impacts in order to catch up the advance in climate change studies. This study updates the sectoral climate damage function at global scale from climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution (FUND) model and develops the aggregate climate damage function in a bottom-up fashion. Besides conventional sectors such as agriculture, forestry, water resources, energy consumption and ecosystems, this study expands climate disaster types, assesses human health impacts caused by various air pollutants, and updates coastal damage by sea level rise. The Beijing Climate Center Simple Earth System Model (BCC_SESM) is used to project climate system based on Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario, and the 2 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios based on RCPs and SSP2 databases. Sectoral results show that the agricultural sector is projected to suffer 63% of the total damage, followed by water resources (16%) and human health (12%) sectors in 2100. The regression results indicate that the aggregate climate damage function is in positive quadratic form. Under BAU scenario, the aggregate climate damage is projected to be 517.7 trillion USD during 2011‒2100. Compared to that, the 2°C and 1.5°C scenarios are projected to respectively reduce climate damages by 215.6 trillion USD (approximately 41.6%) and 263.5 trillion USD (50.9%) in 2011‒2100.

ACS Style

Zi-Jian Zhao; Xiao-Tong Chen; Chang-Yi Liu; Fang Yang; Xin Tan; Yang Zhao; Han Huang; Chao Wei; Xue-Li Shi; Wen Zhai; Fei Guo; Bas J. van Ruijven. Global climate damage in 2 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios based on BCC_SESM model in IAM framework. Advances in Climate Change Research 2020, 11, 261 -272.

AMA Style

Zi-Jian Zhao, Xiao-Tong Chen, Chang-Yi Liu, Fang Yang, Xin Tan, Yang Zhao, Han Huang, Chao Wei, Xue-Li Shi, Wen Zhai, Fei Guo, Bas J. van Ruijven. Global climate damage in 2 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios based on BCC_SESM model in IAM framework. Advances in Climate Change Research. 2020; 11 (3):261-272.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Zi-Jian Zhao; Xiao-Tong Chen; Chang-Yi Liu; Fang Yang; Xin Tan; Yang Zhao; Han Huang; Chao Wei; Xue-Li Shi; Wen Zhai; Fei Guo; Bas J. van Ruijven. 2020. "Global climate damage in 2 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios based on BCC_SESM model in IAM framework." Advances in Climate Change Research 11, no. 3: 261-272.

Journal article
Published: 13 February 2020 in Energies
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The industrial sector dominates the global energy consumption and carbon emissions in end use sectors, and it faces challenges in emission reductions to reach the Paris Agreement goals. This paper analyzes and quantifies the relationship between industrialization, energy systems, and carbon emissions. Firstly, it forecasts the global and regional industrialization trends under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway2 (SSP2) scenarios. Then, it projects the global and regional energy consumption that aligns with the industrialization trend, and optimizes the global energy supply system using the Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact (MESSAGE) model for the industrial sector. Moreover, it develops an expanded Kaya identity to comprehensively investigate the drivers of industrial carbon emissions. In addition, it employs a Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) approach to track the historical contributions of various drivers of carbon emissions, as well as predictions into the future. This paper finds that economic development and population growth are the two largest drivers for historical industrial CO2 emissions, and that carbon intensity and industry energy intensity are the top two drivers for the decrease of future industrial CO2 emissions. Finally, it proposes three modes, i.e., clean supply, electrification, and energy efficiency for industrial emission reduction.

ACS Style

Shining Zhang; Fang Yang; Changyi Liu; Xing Chen; Xin Tan; Yuanbing Zhou; Fei Guo; Weiyi Jiang. Study on Global Industrialization and Industry Emission to Achieve the 2 °C Goal Based on MESSAGE Model and LMDI Approach. Energies 2020, 13, 825 .

AMA Style

Shining Zhang, Fang Yang, Changyi Liu, Xing Chen, Xin Tan, Yuanbing Zhou, Fei Guo, Weiyi Jiang. Study on Global Industrialization and Industry Emission to Achieve the 2 °C Goal Based on MESSAGE Model and LMDI Approach. Energies. 2020; 13 (4):825.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Shining Zhang; Fang Yang; Changyi Liu; Xing Chen; Xin Tan; Yuanbing Zhou; Fei Guo; Weiyi Jiang. 2020. "Study on Global Industrialization and Industry Emission to Achieve the 2 °C Goal Based on MESSAGE Model and LMDI Approach." Energies 13, no. 4: 825.