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Mr. Rodrigo Amaro e Silva
cE3c - Centre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes; Faculty of Sciences, Lisbon University

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0 Photovoltaics
0 Solar Energy
0 energy systems modeling
0 SOLAR FORECASTING
0 photovoltaics Modelling

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SOLAR FORECASTING
Photovoltaics

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Journal article
Published: 12 August 2021 in Energies
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Probabilistic solar forecasting is an issue of growing relevance for the integration of photovoltaic (PV) energy. However, for short-term applications, estimating the forecast uncertainty is challenging and usually delegated to statistical models. To address this limitation, the present work proposes an approach which combines physical and statistical foundations and leverages on satellite-derived clear-sky index (kc) and cloud motion vectors (CMV), both traditionally used for deterministic forecasting. The forecast uncertainty is estimated by using the CMV in a different way than the one generally used by standard CMV-based forecasting approach and by implementing an ensemble approach based on a Gaussian noise-adding step to both the kc and the CMV estimations. Using 15-min average ground-measured Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) data for two locations in France as reference, the proposed model shows to largely surpass the baseline probabilistic forecast Complete History Persistence Ensemble (CH-PeEn), reducing the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) between 37% and 62%, depending on the forecast horizon. Results also show that this is mainly driven by improving the model’s sharpness, which was measured using the Prediction Interval Normalized Average Width (PINAW) metric.

ACS Style

Thomas Carrière; Rodrigo Amaro e Silva; Fuqiang Zhuang; Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan; Philippe Blanc. A New Approach for Satellite-Based Probabilistic Solar Forecasting with Cloud Motion Vectors. Energies 2021, 14, 4951 .

AMA Style

Thomas Carrière, Rodrigo Amaro e Silva, Fuqiang Zhuang, Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan, Philippe Blanc. A New Approach for Satellite-Based Probabilistic Solar Forecasting with Cloud Motion Vectors. Energies. 2021; 14 (16):4951.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Thomas Carrière; Rodrigo Amaro e Silva; Fuqiang Zhuang; Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan; Philippe Blanc. 2021. "A New Approach for Satellite-Based Probabilistic Solar Forecasting with Cloud Motion Vectors." Energies 14, no. 16: 4951.

Journal article
Published: 07 May 2021 in Scientific Reports
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This study aims to illustrate the landscape of passing opportunities of a football team across a set of competitive matches. To do so positional data of 5 competitive matches was used to create polygons of pass availability. Passes were divided into three types depending on the hypothetical threat they may pose to the opposing defense (penetrative, support, and backwards passes). These categories were used to create three heatmaps per match. Moreover, the mean time of passing opportunities was calculated and compared across matches and for the three categories of passes. Due to the specificity of player’s interactive behavior, results showed heatmaps with a variety of patterns. Specifically the fifth match was very dissimilar to the other four. However, characterizing a football match in terms of passing opportunities with a single heatmap dismisses the variety of dynamics that occur throughout a match. Therefore, three temporal heatmaps over windows of 10 min were presented highlighting on-going dynamical changes in pass availability. Results also display that penetrative passes were available over shorter periods of time than backward passes that were available shorter than support passes. The results highlight the sensibility of the model to different task constrains that emerge within football matches.

ACS Style

Luis Ignacio Gómez-Jordana; Rodrigo Amaro e Silva; João Milho; Angel Ric; Pedro Passos. Illustrating changes in landscapes of passing opportunities along a set of competitive football matches. Scientific Reports 2021, 11, 1 -12.

AMA Style

Luis Ignacio Gómez-Jordana, Rodrigo Amaro e Silva, João Milho, Angel Ric, Pedro Passos. Illustrating changes in landscapes of passing opportunities along a set of competitive football matches. Scientific Reports. 2021; 11 (1):1-12.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Luis Ignacio Gómez-Jordana; Rodrigo Amaro e Silva; João Milho; Angel Ric; Pedro Passos. 2021. "Illustrating changes in landscapes of passing opportunities along a set of competitive football matches." Scientific Reports 11, no. 1: 1-12.

Full paper
Published: 22 January 2021 in Energy Technology
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The characteristic declination is the declination for the day on which the daily extraterrestrial irradiation on a horizontal surface is identical to its monthly average value. It was introduced as a means to determine monthly average values of irradiation. Herein, its potential usefulness to reduce computing time when mapping solar potential in complex urban areas is explored. This simplification reduces computing demand by a factor of 30× while introducing a +5% to +8% error in the annual monthly irradiation on a typical urban neighborhood for low and midlatitudes. Errors are larger (+10% to +12%) for high latitudes. The magnitude of the errors is comparable to other relevant uncertainties in solar mapping tools, associated with solar radiation modeling, the layout and details of the buildings, or the photovoltaic (PV) energy yield models.

ACS Style

Miguel Centeno Brito; Rodrigo Amaro e Silva; Sara Freitas. Characteristic Declination—A Useful Concept for Accelerating 3D Solar Potential Calculations. Energy Technology 2021, 9, 1 .

AMA Style

Miguel Centeno Brito, Rodrigo Amaro e Silva, Sara Freitas. Characteristic Declination—A Useful Concept for Accelerating 3D Solar Potential Calculations. Energy Technology. 2021; 9 (3):1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Miguel Centeno Brito; Rodrigo Amaro e Silva; Sara Freitas. 2021. "Characteristic Declination—A Useful Concept for Accelerating 3D Solar Potential Calculations." Energy Technology 9, no. 3: 1.

Journal article
Published: 08 January 2021 in Energies
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The recently approved regulation on Energy Communities in Europe is paving the way for new collective forms of energy consumption and production, mainly based on photovoltaics. However, energy modeling approaches that can adequately evaluate the impact of these new regulations on energy community configurations are still lacking, particularly with regards to the grid tariffs imposed on collective systems. Thus, the present work models three different energy community configurations sustained on collective photovoltaics self-consumption for a small city in southern Portugal. This energy community, which integrates the city consumers and a local winery, was modeled using the Python-based Calliope framework. Using real electricity demand data from power transformers and an actual winery, the techno-economic feasibility of each configuration was assessed. Results show that all collective arrangements can promote a higher penetration of photovoltaic capacity (up to 23%) and a modest reduction in the overall cost of electricity (up to 8%). However, there are clear trade-offs between the different pathways: more centralized configurations have 53% lower installation costs but are more sensitive to grid use costs (which can represent up to 74% of the total system costs). Moreover, key actor’s individual self-consumption rate may decrease by 10% in order to benefit the energy community as a whole.

ACS Style

Guilherme Pontes Luz; Rodrigo Amaro E Silva. Modeling Energy Communities with Collective Photovoltaic Self-Consumption: Synergies between a Small City and a Winery in Portugal. Energies 2021, 14, 323 .

AMA Style

Guilherme Pontes Luz, Rodrigo Amaro E Silva. Modeling Energy Communities with Collective Photovoltaic Self-Consumption: Synergies between a Small City and a Winery in Portugal. Energies. 2021; 14 (2):323.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Guilherme Pontes Luz; Rodrigo Amaro E Silva. 2021. "Modeling Energy Communities with Collective Photovoltaic Self-Consumption: Synergies between a Small City and a Winery in Portugal." Energies 14, no. 2: 323.

Journal article
Published: 16 October 2020 in Electric Power Systems Research
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Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) and dynamic charging have been pointed out as potential assets to provide grid ancillary services and enable higher levels of renewable generation. However, such strategies may require that EV chargers operate below their nominal power, which can raise power quality (PQ) concerns. This work aims to propose a PQ characterization procedure for V2G systems, as well as to assess their PQ performance. Experimental tests were carried out for a 10-kW V2G charger connected to a Nissan Leaf, operating at different relative power levels in charging and discharging modes. Power factor (PF), harmonic distortion, and voltage unbalance were assessed as PQ metrics. Results show that although the V2G system complies with the limits established in international standards when operating at nominal power, the PQ metrics degrade for lower power values; discharging mode perform worse in terms of electricity pollution. For phase 3, lowering the relative power from 85% to 10% increased total harmonic distortion in current (THDi) from 3.1% to 19% and from 4.6% to 33% when in charge and discharge mode, respectively. Additionally, mathematical models used to describe the PQ behavior of grid connected PV systems proved to accurately describe the behavior of the system under analysis.

ACS Style

Ângelo Casaleiro; Rodrigo Amaro e Silva; Bruno Teixeira; João M Serra. Experimental assessment and model validation of power quality parameters for vehicle-to-grid systems. Electric Power Systems Research 2020, 191, 106891 .

AMA Style

Ângelo Casaleiro, Rodrigo Amaro e Silva, Bruno Teixeira, João M Serra. Experimental assessment and model validation of power quality parameters for vehicle-to-grid systems. Electric Power Systems Research. 2020; 191 ():106891.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Ângelo Casaleiro; Rodrigo Amaro e Silva; Bruno Teixeira; João M Serra. 2020. "Experimental assessment and model validation of power quality parameters for vehicle-to-grid systems." Electric Power Systems Research 191, no. : 106891.

Sports performance
Published: 10 July 2020 in Journal of Sports Sciences
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This study investigated a method for modelling a landscape of opportunities for penetrative passing completed on the ground by ball carriers in association football. Analysis of video footage of competitive, professional football performance was undertaken, identifying a sample (n = 20) of attacking sub-phases of gameplay which ended in a penetrative pass being made between defenders to a receiver. Players’ relative co-positioning during performance was modelled using bi-dimensional x and y coordinates of each player recorded at 25 fps. Data on player movements during competitive interactions were captured using an automatic video tracking system, recording player co-locations emerging over time, as well as current and estimated running velocities. Results revealed that the half spaces between the midfield and both sidelines were the key locations on field providing most affordances for penetrating passes in the competitive performance sample analysed. Due to the dynamics of players’ co-adaptive performance behaviours, it was expected that opportunities for penetrative passing by ball carriers would not display a homogeneous space-time spread across the entire field. Results agreed with these expectations, showing how a landscape of opportunities for penetrative passing might be specified by information emerging from continuous player interactions in competitive performance.

ACS Style

Pedro Passos; Rodrigo Amaro E Silva; Luís Gomez-Jordana; Keith Davids. Developing a two-dimensional landscape model of opportunities for penetrative passing in association football – Stage I. Journal of Sports Sciences 2020, 38, 2407 -2414.

AMA Style

Pedro Passos, Rodrigo Amaro E Silva, Luís Gomez-Jordana, Keith Davids. Developing a two-dimensional landscape model of opportunities for penetrative passing in association football – Stage I. Journal of Sports Sciences. 2020; 38 (21):2407-2414.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Pedro Passos; Rodrigo Amaro E Silva; Luís Gomez-Jordana; Keith Davids. 2020. "Developing a two-dimensional landscape model of opportunities for penetrative passing in association football – Stage I." Journal of Sports Sciences 38, no. 21: 2407-2414.

Journal article
Published: 07 March 2020 in Energies
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Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are expected to play a role as power grid ancillary service providers through vehicle-to-grid (V2G) chargers, enabling higher levels of renewable electricity penetration. However, to fully exploit the storage capacity of PEVs and fast responsiveness, it is crucial to understand their operational characteristics. This work proposes a characterization procedure for V2G systems providing grid services. It extends the existing literature on response time, AC/DC conversion and reactive power assessment. Illustrative results were obtained by implementing the procedure using a Nissan Leaf battery electric vehicle (BEV) connected to a remotely operated commercial V2G CHAdeMO charger. The V2G system was characterized as having a relative inaccuracy and variability of response inferior to 3% and 0.4%, respectively. Its average communication and ramping times are 2.37 s and 0.26 s/kW, respectively. Its conversion efficiency and power factor both showed degradation in the power values below 50% of the charger’s nominal power. Moreover, the proposed visualizations revealed that: i) the V2G system implements power requests for the DC power flow; ii) the power factor control algorithm was nonoperational; and iii) the acquired data can leverage statistical models that describe the operation of V2G systems (which is of extreme value for researchers and operators).

ACS Style

Ângelo Casaleiro; Rodrigo Amaro E Silva; João Serra. Plug-in Electric Vehicles for Grid Services Provision: Proposing an Operational Characterization Procedure for V2G Systems. Energies 2020, 13, 1240 .

AMA Style

Ângelo Casaleiro, Rodrigo Amaro E Silva, João Serra. Plug-in Electric Vehicles for Grid Services Provision: Proposing an Operational Characterization Procedure for V2G Systems. Energies. 2020; 13 (5):1240.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Ângelo Casaleiro; Rodrigo Amaro E Silva; João Serra. 2020. "Plug-in Electric Vehicles for Grid Services Provision: Proposing an Operational Characterization Procedure for V2G Systems." Energies 13, no. 5: 1240.

Journal article
Published: 25 September 2019 in Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy
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Spatio-temporal solar forecasting based on statistical models seldom integrates wind information. An AutoRegressive with eXogenous input (ARX) model was tested using global horizontal irradiation records from a set of pyranometers deployed in Oahu, Hawaii, USA, where northeasterly winds are predominant. When irradiance is forecasted 10-s ahead, interesting forecast skills (up to 30.8%) can be achieved when a site has upwind neighbors available. However, when forecast skill is mapped as a function of wind direction at 850 hPa (from an ERA 5 reanalysis), negative skill values can be observed when nondominant winds occur. A wind regime-based approach is proposed, where different ARX models are built for different wind direction intervals, which substantially improves the forecasting accuracy for the underperforming wind directions. When the regime definition also takes into account wind speed, the ARX model detects spatial patterns for faster winds, with several nondominant directions achieving skill scores higher than 20%. Replacing the wind reanalysis by historical forecasts from ERA 5 reduced the overall skill by less than 0.1%.Spatio-temporal solar forecasting based on statistical models seldom integrates wind information. An AutoRegressive with eXogenous input (ARX) model was tested using global horizontal irradiation records from a set of pyranometers deployed in Oahu, Hawaii, USA, where northeasterly winds are predominant. When irradiance is forecasted 10-s ahead, interesting forecast skills (up to 30.8%) can be achieved when a site has upwind neighbors available. However, when forecast skill is mapped as a function of wind direction at 850 hPa (from an ERA 5 reanalysis), negative skill values can be observed when nondominant winds occur. A wind regime-based approach is proposed, where different ARX models are built for different wind direction intervals, which substantially improves the forecasting accuracy for the underperforming wind directions. When the regime definition also takes into account wind speed, the ARX model detects spatial patterns for faster winds, with several nondominant directions achieving skill scores ...

ACS Style

R. Amaro E Silva; S. E. Haupt; M. C. Brito. A regime-based approach for integrating wind information in spatio-temporal solar forecasting models. Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy 2019, 11, 056102 .

AMA Style

R. Amaro E Silva, S. E. Haupt, M. C. Brito. A regime-based approach for integrating wind information in spatio-temporal solar forecasting models. Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy. 2019; 11 (5):056102.

Chicago/Turabian Style

R. Amaro E Silva; S. E. Haupt; M. C. Brito. 2019. "A regime-based approach for integrating wind information in spatio-temporal solar forecasting models." Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy 11, no. 5: 056102.

Journal article
Published: 25 September 2019 in Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy
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The estimation of photovoltaic (PV) efficiency depends on the solar cell temperature, which varies with ambient temperature and solar irradiation. When only daily averages are available, for instance, when assessing solar potential in a future climate, the standard procedure leads to a non-negligible error in the estimation of PV generation, as it disregards the fact that changes in efficiency at low irradiance are less relevant than changes in efficiency at high irradiance. A correction factor based on a sinusoidal model for solar irradiation and temperature is proposed and tested for locations with diverse latitudes and climates. The results show that this approach features random and bias errors below 2%, at least three times smaller than the standard averaging method, thus validating its application for estimation of PV generation.The estimation of photovoltaic (PV) efficiency depends on the solar cell temperature, which varies with ambient temperature and solar irradiation. When only daily averages are available, for instance, when assessing solar potential in a future climate, the standard procedure leads to a non-negligible error in the estimation of PV generation, as it disregards the fact that changes in efficiency at low irradiance are less relevant than changes in efficiency at high irradiance. A correction factor based on a sinusoidal model for solar irradiation and temperature is proposed and tested for locations with diverse latitudes and climates. The results show that this approach features random and bias errors below 2%, at least three times smaller than the standard averaging method, thus validating its application for estimation of PV generation.

ACS Style

Miguel C. Brito; Rodrigo Amaro E Silva. A sinusoidal model to assess PV generation from daily irradiation data. Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy 2019, 11, 053502 .

AMA Style

Miguel C. Brito, Rodrigo Amaro E Silva. A sinusoidal model to assess PV generation from daily irradiation data. Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy. 2019; 11 (5):053502.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Miguel C. Brito; Rodrigo Amaro E Silva. 2019. "A sinusoidal model to assess PV generation from daily irradiation data." Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy 11, no. 5: 053502.

Journal article
Published: 10 September 2019 in Applied Energy
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Using deployed PV generation as inputs for spatio-temporal forecasting approaches has the potential for fast and scalable very short-term PV forecasting in the urban environment but one has to consider the effect of their tilt and orientation on the forecasting accuracy. To address this issue, tilted irradiance data sets were simulated using state of the art solutions on a horizontal irradiance data set from a pyranometer network deployed in Oahu, Hawaii, and used as inputs to train a 10-s ahead linear ARX model. Results showed that the mismatch in tilt/orientation degrades the forecast skill, justified by the difference in the diffuse fraction of each surface and, thus, how each reacts to changes in cloud cover. From 4000 simulated sets, it was shown that using information from more sites led to better forecasts and made the model performance less sensitive to the PV modules’ tilt and orientation. Forecast skill showed to be quite sensitive to the tilt and orientation ensemble when the inputs consisted of only rooftop or façade systems (between 18.1–29.6% and 8.2–19.4%, respectively). Forecasting a rooftop system with vertically tilted neighbors lead to considerably lower skill values (9.8–16.2%) and benefitted when all shared the same orientation. On the other hand, forecasting a vertically tilted system with rooftop neighbors had a lower impact (9.2–14.7%) and benefitted from diversely oriented neighbors.

ACS Style

R. Amaro e Silva; Miguel Brito. Spatio-temporal PV forecasting sensitivity to modules’ tilt and orientation. Applied Energy 2019, 255, 113807 .

AMA Style

R. Amaro e Silva, Miguel Brito. Spatio-temporal PV forecasting sensitivity to modules’ tilt and orientation. Applied Energy. 2019; 255 ():113807.

Chicago/Turabian Style

R. Amaro e Silva; Miguel Brito. 2019. "Spatio-temporal PV forecasting sensitivity to modules’ tilt and orientation." Applied Energy 255, no. : 113807.

Original paper
Published: 24 April 2018 in physica status solidi (a)
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A one‐step method to obtain boron emitters for n‐type solar cells based on the use of boron tribromide (BBr3) as a dopant source is developed. During this study several experimental parameters are varied. It is observed that besides the diffusion temperature, the nitrogen gas flux and the BBr3 bubbler temperature have a significant impact on the obtained emitter properties. Using the adequate experimental conditions a homogenous boron emitter without boron rich layer (BRL), a sheet resistance of 77 Ω sq−1 and a dark saturation current <100 fA cm−2 is obtained.

ACS Style

José A. Silva; Rodrigo Amaro e Silva; Ana Peral; Carlos Del Cañizo. A One Step Method to Produce Boron Emitters. physica status solidi (a) 2018, 215, 1 .

AMA Style

José A. Silva, Rodrigo Amaro e Silva, Ana Peral, Carlos Del Cañizo. A One Step Method to Produce Boron Emitters. physica status solidi (a). 2018; 215 (17):1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

José A. Silva; Rodrigo Amaro e Silva; Ana Peral; Carlos Del Cañizo. 2018. "A One Step Method to Produce Boron Emitters." physica status solidi (a) 215, no. 17: 1.

Journal article
Published: 05 April 2018 in Solar Energy
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ACS Style

R. Amaro E Silva; J. Monteiro Baptista; M. C. Brito. Data-driven estimation of expected photovoltaic generation. Solar Energy 2018, 166, 116 -122.

AMA Style

R. Amaro E Silva, J. Monteiro Baptista, M. C. Brito. Data-driven estimation of expected photovoltaic generation. Solar Energy. 2018; 166 ():116-122.

Chicago/Turabian Style

R. Amaro E Silva; J. Monteiro Baptista; M. C. Brito. 2018. "Data-driven estimation of expected photovoltaic generation." Solar Energy 166, no. : 116-122.

Journal article
Published: 01 March 2018 in Solar Energy
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Spatio-temporal solar forecasting uses spatially distributed solar radiation or photovoltaic power data to enhance the forecasting at a given site. Two data sets with a wide range of time and spatial resolutions are explored using linear Auto-Regressive models with eXogenous inputs (ARX). Results allow the identification of two different forecasting modes of operation. A short-term mode, where suitable neighbours may significantly improve the forecasting performance, with skill values up to 30–40%, as they provide information on incoming clouds, and a longer-term mode, where the neighbouring sensors’ positioning is less relevant as the positive skill values around 10–20% are associated to a spatial smoothing effect which reduces the occurrence of high forecast errors. For the short-term mode, the correlation between forecast horizons and effective distance to the most contributing neighbours was shown by a normalized weighted average distance (nWAD) parameter. Additionally, this parameter further sustained that the sensor network layout is not relevant for the second mode.

ACS Style

R. Amaro e Silva; M. C. Brito. Impact of network layout and time resolution on spatio-temporal solar forecasting. Solar Energy 2018, 163, 329 -337.

AMA Style

R. Amaro e Silva, M. C. Brito. Impact of network layout and time resolution on spatio-temporal solar forecasting. Solar Energy. 2018; 163 ():329-337.

Chicago/Turabian Style

R. Amaro e Silva; M. C. Brito. 2018. "Impact of network layout and time resolution on spatio-temporal solar forecasting." Solar Energy 163, no. : 329-337.