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Ms. Isabel Meza
United Nations University

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0 Natural Hazards
0 Risk Assessment
0 Vulnerability Assessment
0 Environmental sciences
0 Disaster risk management

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Preprint content
Published: 04 March 2021
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As drought risk is projected to increase in many countries around the world, global drought risk assessments incorporating hazard, exposure, and vulnerability are deemed to be useful to inform decisions on which countries should be targeted for the implementation of risk reduction, risk transfer, risk financing and adaptation strategies. This holds particularly true for existing climate change related financing mechanisms, such as the Adaptation Fund (AF), the Green Climate Fund (GCF) or the InsuResilience Solutions Fund (ISF), which have the mandate to concentrate on the “most vulnerable” or “most at-risk”, and therefore need comparative risk information. However, by virtue of the scale of assessment some countries and regions that experience the negative impacts of drought might not appear in the highest risk categories in global comparisons. This limits, and potentially biases, the ability of decision-makers, regional organisations or funding mechanisms to recognise which countries under their remit should be targeted for assistance.

This research aims to explore and overcome this issue by conducting an indicator-based drought risk assessment for agriculture at the global scale, compare these results to risk assessments for different clusters of countries of particular relevance for international climate and disaster risk policy, and discuss implications for decision making. Clusters of countries considered here include different World Bank income groups, UNFCCC Annex I and Non-Annex I countries, least developed countries (LDCs), the Vulnerable 20 (V20), as well as geographic regions. Additional clusters were created from countries that either rely on the agriculture sector in terms of their GDP, labor force, or are considered breadbaskets. 

Our analysis revealed that when assessed on a global scale, the higher risk is concentrated in Africa, countries with a reliance on agriculture in employment, and low middle income countries. High income countries and Annex I countries display lower risk on average. However, when assessed by cluster, risk patterns change compared to the global assessment. The most change occurs in the High Income, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Breadbasket clusters of countries. The least amount of change is seen in the Non-Annex I and LDC countries. On an individual country level, some countries moved from a lower quintile of risk in the global assessment to the highest quintile in the cluster assessment. For example Romania and Serbia, not classified as high-risk in the global assessment, emerged in the highest quintile in the Europe cluster. 

Findings of this study can be used directly by decision makers targeting regions or specific groups of countries for drought DRR planning or funding. More broadly, this analysis shows the importance of analysing risk at multiple scales, as different patterns emerge that could influence financial flows, decision making, and ultimately disaster risk outcomes.

ACS Style

Alexandra L. Dudley; Isabel Meza; Gustavo Naumann; Michael Hagenlocher. Leaving no country behind? How scale influences outcomes of drought risk assessments. 2021, 1 .

AMA Style

Alexandra L. Dudley, Isabel Meza, Gustavo Naumann, Michael Hagenlocher. Leaving no country behind? How scale influences outcomes of drought risk assessments. . 2021; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Alexandra L. Dudley; Isabel Meza; Gustavo Naumann; Michael Hagenlocher. 2021. "Leaving no country behind? How scale influences outcomes of drought risk assessments." , no. : 1.

Research article
Published: 02 March 2020 in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
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Droughts continue to affect ecosystems, communities and entire economies. Agriculture bears much of the impact, and in many countries it is the most heavily affected sector. Over the past decades, efforts have been made to assess drought risk at different spatial scales. Here, we present for the first time an integrated assessment of drought risk for both irrigated and rainfed agricultural systems at the global scale. Composite hazard indicators were calculated for irrigated and rainfed systems separately using different drought indices based on historical climate conditions (1980–2016). Exposure was analyzed for irrigated and non-irrigated crops. Vulnerability was assessed through a socioecological-system (SES) perspective, using socioecological susceptibility and lack of coping-capacity indicators that were weighted by drought experts from around the world. The analysis shows that drought risk of rainfed and irrigated agricultural systems displays a heterogeneous pattern at the global level, with higher risk for southeastern Europe as well as northern and southern Africa. By providing information on the drivers and spatial patterns of drought risk in all dimensions of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, the presented analysis can support the identification of tailored measures to reduce drought risk and increase the resilience of agricultural systems.

ACS Style

Isabel Meza; Stefan Siebert; Petra Döll; Jürgen Kusche; Claudia Herbert; Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei; Hamideh Nouri; Helena Gerdener; Eklavyya Popat; Janna Frischen; Gustavo Naumann; Jürgen V. Vogt; Yvonne Walz; Zita Sebesvari; Michael Hagenlocher. Global-scale drought risk assessment for agricultural systems. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 2020, 20, 695 -712.

AMA Style

Isabel Meza, Stefan Siebert, Petra Döll, Jürgen Kusche, Claudia Herbert, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Hamideh Nouri, Helena Gerdener, Eklavyya Popat, Janna Frischen, Gustavo Naumann, Jürgen V. Vogt, Yvonne Walz, Zita Sebesvari, Michael Hagenlocher. Global-scale drought risk assessment for agricultural systems. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. 2020; 20 (2):695-712.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Isabel Meza; Stefan Siebert; Petra Döll; Jürgen Kusche; Claudia Herbert; Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei; Hamideh Nouri; Helena Gerdener; Eklavyya Popat; Janna Frischen; Gustavo Naumann; Jürgen V. Vogt; Yvonne Walz; Zita Sebesvari; Michael Hagenlocher. 2020. "Global-scale drought risk assessment for agricultural systems." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 20, no. 2: 695-712.

Journal article
Published: 21 January 2020 in Sustainability
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The devastating impacts of drought are fast becoming a global concern. Zimbabwe is among the countries more severely affected, where drought impacts have led to water shortages, declining yields, and periods of food insecurity, accompanied by economic downturns. In particular, the country’s agricultural sector, mostly comprised of smallholder rainfed systems, is at great risk of drought. In this study, a multimethod approach is applied, including a remote sensing-based analysis of vegetation health data from 1989–2019 to assess the drought hazard, as well as a spatial analysis combined with expert consultations to determine drought vulnerability and exposure of agricultural systems. The results show that droughts frequently occur with changing patterns across Zimbabwe. Every district has been affected by drought during the past thirty years, with varying levels of severity and frequency. Severe drought episodes have been observed in 1991–1992, 1994–1995, 2002–2003, 2015–2016, and 2018–2019. Drought vulnerability and exposure vary substantially in the country, with the south-western provinces of Matabeleland North and South showing particularly high levels. Assessments of high-risk areas, combined with an analysis of the drivers of risk, set the path towards tailor-made adaptation strategies that consider drought frequency and severity, exposure, and vulnerability.

ACS Style

Janna Frischen; Isabel Meza; Daniel Rupp; Katharina Wietler; Michael Hagenlocher. Drought Risk to Agricultural Systems in Zimbabwe: A Spatial Analysis of Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability. Sustainability 2020, 12, 752 .

AMA Style

Janna Frischen, Isabel Meza, Daniel Rupp, Katharina Wietler, Michael Hagenlocher. Drought Risk to Agricultural Systems in Zimbabwe: A Spatial Analysis of Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability. Sustainability. 2020; 12 (3):752.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Janna Frischen; Isabel Meza; Daniel Rupp; Katharina Wietler; Michael Hagenlocher. 2020. "Drought Risk to Agricultural Systems in Zimbabwe: A Spatial Analysis of Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability." Sustainability 12, no. 3: 752.

Preprint content
Published: 06 November 2019
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ACS Style

Isabel Meza. Point by point responses to the referee´s comments #1. 2019, 1 .

AMA Style

Isabel Meza. Point by point responses to the referee´s comments #1. . 2019; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Isabel Meza. 2019. "Point by point responses to the referee´s comments #1." , no. : 1.

Preprint content
Published: 06 November 2019
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ACS Style

Isabel Meza. Point by point responses to Veit Blauhut comments. 2019, 1 .

AMA Style

Isabel Meza. Point by point responses to Veit Blauhut comments. . 2019; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Isabel Meza. 2019. "Point by point responses to Veit Blauhut comments." , no. : 1.

Preprint content
Published: 02 August 2019
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ACS Style

Isabel Meza; Stefan Siebert; Petra Döll; Jürgen Kusche; Claudia Herbert; Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei; Hamideh Nouri; Helena Gerdener; Eklavyya Popat; Janna Frischen; Gustavo Naumann; Jürgen V. Vogt; Yvonne Walz; Zita Sebesvari; Michael Hagenlocher. Supplementary material to "Global-scale drought risk assessment for agricultural systems". 2019, 1 .

AMA Style

Isabel Meza, Stefan Siebert, Petra Döll, Jürgen Kusche, Claudia Herbert, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Hamideh Nouri, Helena Gerdener, Eklavyya Popat, Janna Frischen, Gustavo Naumann, Jürgen V. Vogt, Yvonne Walz, Zita Sebesvari, Michael Hagenlocher. Supplementary material to "Global-scale drought risk assessment for agricultural systems". . 2019; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Isabel Meza; Stefan Siebert; Petra Döll; Jürgen Kusche; Claudia Herbert; Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei; Hamideh Nouri; Helena Gerdener; Eklavyya Popat; Janna Frischen; Gustavo Naumann; Jürgen V. Vogt; Yvonne Walz; Zita Sebesvari; Michael Hagenlocher. 2019. "Supplementary material to "Global-scale drought risk assessment for agricultural systems"." , no. : 1.

Preprint content
Published: 02 August 2019
Reads 0
Downloads 0

Droughts continue to affect ecosystems, communities, and entire economies. Agriculture bears much of the impact, and in many countries it is the most heavily affected sector. Over the past decades, efforts have been made to assess drought risk at different spatial scales. Here, we present for the first time an integrated assessment of drought risk for both irrigated and rain-fed agricultural systems at the global scale. Composite hazard indicators were calculated for irrigated and rain-fed systems separately using different drought indices based on historical climate conditions (1980–2016). Exposure was analyzed for irrigated and non-irrigated crops. Vulnerability was assessed through a social-ecological systems perspective, using social-ecological susceptibility and lack of coping capacity indicators that were weighted by drought experts from around the world. The analysis shows that drought risk of rain-fed and irrigated agricultural systems displays heterogeneous pattern at the global level with higher risk for southeastern Europe, as well as northern and southern Africa. By providing information on the drivers and spatial patterns of drought risk in all dimensions of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability, the presented analysis can support the identification of tailored measures to reduce drought risk and increase the resilience of agricultural systems.

ACS Style

Isabel Meza; Stefan Siebert; Petra Döll; Jürgen Kusche; Claudia Herbert; Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei; Hamideh Nouri; Helena Gerdener; Eklavyya Popat; Janna Frischen; Gustavo Naumann; Jürgen V. Vogt; Yvonne Walz; Zita Sebesvari; Michael Hagenlocher. Global-scale drought risk assessment for agricultural systems. 2019, 1 .

AMA Style

Isabel Meza, Stefan Siebert, Petra Döll, Jürgen Kusche, Claudia Herbert, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Hamideh Nouri, Helena Gerdener, Eklavyya Popat, Janna Frischen, Gustavo Naumann, Jürgen V. Vogt, Yvonne Walz, Zita Sebesvari, Michael Hagenlocher. Global-scale drought risk assessment for agricultural systems. . 2019; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Isabel Meza; Stefan Siebert; Petra Döll; Jürgen Kusche; Claudia Herbert; Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei; Hamideh Nouri; Helena Gerdener; Eklavyya Popat; Janna Frischen; Gustavo Naumann; Jürgen V. Vogt; Yvonne Walz; Zita Sebesvari; Michael Hagenlocher. 2019. "Global-scale drought risk assessment for agricultural systems." , no. : 1.

Accepted manuscript
Published: 17 May 2019 in Environmental Research Letters
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Reducing the social, environmental, and economic impacts of droughts and identifying pathways towards drought resilient societies remains a global priority. A common understanding of the drivers of drought risk and ways in which drought impacts materialize is crucial for improved assessments and for the identification and (spatial) planning of targeted drought risk reduction and adaptation options. Over the past two decades, we have witnessed an increase in drought risk assessments across spatial and temporal scales drawing on a multitude of conceptual foundations and methodological approaches. Recognizing the diversity of approaches in science and practice as well as the associated opportunities and challenges, we present the outcomes of a systematic literature review of the state of the art of people-centered drought vulnerability and risk conceptualization and assessments, and identify persisting gaps. Our analysis shows that, of the reviewed assessments, (i) more than 60% do not explicitly specify the type of drought hazard that is addressed, (ii) 42% do not provide a clear definition of drought risk, (iii) 62% apply static, index-based approaches, (iv) 57% of the indicator-based assessments do not specify their weighting methods, (v) only 11% conduct any form of validation, (vi) only ten percent develop future scenarios of drought risk, and (vii) only about 40% of the assessments establish a direct link to drought risk reduction or adaptation strategies, i.e. consider solutions. We discuss the challenges associated with these findings for both assessment and identification of drought risk reduction measures and identify research needs to inform future research and policy agendas in order to advance the understanding of drought risk and support pathways towards more drought resilient societies.

ACS Style

Michael Hagenlocher; Isabel Meza; Carl Anderson; Annika Min; Fabrice G. Renaud; Yvonne Walz; Stefan Siebert; Zita Sebesvari. Drought vulnerability and risk assessments: state of the art, persistent gaps, and research agenda. Environmental Research Letters 2019, 14, 083002 .

AMA Style

Michael Hagenlocher, Isabel Meza, Carl Anderson, Annika Min, Fabrice G. Renaud, Yvonne Walz, Stefan Siebert, Zita Sebesvari. Drought vulnerability and risk assessments: state of the art, persistent gaps, and research agenda. Environmental Research Letters. 2019; 14 (8):083002.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Michael Hagenlocher; Isabel Meza; Carl Anderson; Annika Min; Fabrice G. Renaud; Yvonne Walz; Stefan Siebert; Zita Sebesvari. 2019. "Drought vulnerability and risk assessments: state of the art, persistent gaps, and research agenda." Environmental Research Letters 14, no. 8: 083002.