An epidemic disease caused by a new coronavirus has spread in Northern Italy with a strong contagion rate. We implement an SEIR model to compute the infected population and the number of casualties of this epidemic. The example may ideally regard the situation in the Italian Region of Lombardy, where the epidemic started on February 24, but by no means attempts to perform a rigorous case study in view of the lack of suitable data and the uncertainty of the different parameters, namely, the variation of the degree of home isolation and social distancing as a function of time, the initial number of exposed individuals and infected people, the incubation and infectious periods, and the fatality rate. First, we perform an analysis of the results of the model by varying the parameters and initial conditions (in order for the epidemic to start, there should be at least one exposed or one infectious human). Then, we consider the Lombardy case and calibrate the model with the number of dead individuals to date (May 5, 2020) and constrain the parameters on the basis of values reported in the literature. The peak occurs at day 37 (March 31) approximately, with a reproduction ratio R₀ of 3 initially, 1.36 at day 22, and 0.8 after day 35, indicating different degrees of lockdown. The predicted death toll is approximately 15,600 casualties, with 2.7 million infected individuals at the end of the epidemic. The incubation period providing a better fit to the dead individuals is 4.25 days, and the infectious period is 4 days, with a fatality rate of 0.00144/day [values based on the reported (official) number of casualties]. The infection fatality rate (IFR) is 0.57%, and it is 2.37% if twice the reported number of casualties is assumed. However, these rates depend on the initial number of exposed individuals. If approximately nine times more individuals are exposed, there are three times more infected people at the end of the epidemic and IFR = 0.47%. If we relax these constraints and use a wider range of lower and upper bounds for the incubation and infectious periods, we observe that a higher incubation period (13 vs. 4.25 days) gives the same IFR (0.6 vs. 0.57%), but nine times more exposed individuals in the first case. Other choices of the set of parameters also provide a good fit to the data, but some of the results may not be realistic. Therefore, an accurate determination of the fatality rate and characteristics of the epidemic is subject to knowledge of the precise bounds of the parameters. Besides the specific example, the analysis proposed in this work shows how isolation measures, social distancing, and knowledge of the diffusion conditions help us to understand the dynamics of the epidemic. Hence, it is important to quantify the process to verify the effectiveness of the lockdown.

Summary. A new formulation for wave propagation in an anelastic medium is developed. The phenomenological theory of linear viscoelasticity provides the basis f

In honor of the new millennium (Y2K), the SEG Research Committee is inviting a series of review articles and tutorials that summarize the state-of-the-art in various areas of exploration geophysics. Further invited contributions will appear during the next year or two—Sven Treitel, Chairman, SEG Research Subcommittee on Y2K Tutorials and Review Articles. Seismic modeling is one of the cornerstones of geophysical data processing. We give an overview of the most common modeling methods in use today: direct methods, integral-equation methods, and asymptotic methods. We also discuss numerical implementation aspects and present a few representative modeling examples for the different methods.

Recent research has established that the dominant P-wave attenuation mechanism in reservoir rocks at seismic frequencies is because of wave-induced fluid flow (mesoscopic loss). The P-wave induces a fluid-pressure difference at mesoscopic-scale inhomogeneities (larger than the pore size but smaller than the wavelength, typically tens of centimeters) and generates fluid flow and slow (diffusion) Biot waves (continuity of pore pressure is achieved by energy conversion to slow P-waves, which diffuse away from the interfaces). In this context, we consider a periodically stratified medium and investigate the amount of attenuation (and velocity dispersion) caused by different types of heterogeneities in the rock properties, namely, porosity, grain and frame moduli, permeability, and fluid properties. The most effective loss mechanisms result from porosity variations and partial saturation, where one of the fluids is very stiff and the other is very compliant, such as, a highly permeable sandstone at shallow depths, saturated with small amounts of gas (around 10% saturation) and water. Grain- and frame-moduli variations are the next cause of attenuation. The relaxation peak moves towards low frequencies as the (background) permeability decreases and the viscosity and thickness of the layers increase. The analysis indicates in which cases the seismic band is in the relaxed regime, and therefore, when the Gassmann equation can yield a good approximation to the wave velocity.

Heterogeneity of rock's fabric can induce heterogeneous distribution of immiscible fluids in natural reservoirs, since the lithological variations (mainly permeability) may affect fluid migration in geological time scales, resulting in patchy saturation of fluids. Therefore, fabric and saturation inhomogeneities both affect wave propagation. To model the wave effects (attenuation and velocity dispersion), we introduce a double double‐porosity model, where pores saturated with two different fluids overlap with pores having dissimilar compressibilities. The governing equations are derived by using Hamilton's principle based on the potential energy, kinetic energy, and dissipation functions, and the stiffness coefficients are determined by gedanken experiments, yielding one fast P wave and four slow Biot waves. Three examples are given, namely, muddy siltstones, clean dolomites, and tight sandstones, where fabric heterogeneities at three different spatial scales are analyzed in comparison with experimental data. In muddy siltstones, where intrapore clay and intergranular pores constitute a submicroscopic double‐porosity structure, wave anelasticity mainly occurs in the frequency range (10⁴–10⁷ Hz), while in pure dolomites with microscopic heterogeneity of grain contacts and tight sandstones with mesoscopic heterogeneity of less consolidated sands, it occurs at 10³–10⁷ Hz and 10¹–10³ Hz (seismic band), respectively. The predicted maximum quality factor of the fast compressional wave for the sandstone is the lowest (approximately 8), and that of the dolomite is the highest. The results of the diffusive slow waves are affected by the strong friction effects between solids and fluids. The model describes wave propagation in patchy‐saturated rocks with fabric heterogeneity at different scales, and the relevant theoretical predictions agree well with the experimental data in fully and partially saturated rocks.