Egypt has recently inaugurated a mega development project aiming to alleviate the overpopulation along the Nile River and to meet the looming food gap. Toshka is a promising area where groundwater-dependent activities are being expanded adjacent to Lake Nasser. Thus, it is of utmost importance to provide a sustainable development approach and to assess the resulting environmental implications. Accordingly, a coupled groundwater flow and transport model was invoked. The generated model was successfully calibrated for the observed water levels and salinity. The proposed exploitation regime of 102 wells each pumping 1000 m³/day was simulated for a 100-year test period. The maximum resulting drawdown was about 25 m, compatible with the advocated sustainable restriction limit. Climate change (CC) impacts of reducing the lake’s storage and increasing the crops’ water requirements were investigated. The lake’s water level fluctuations were a key factor in the aquifer hydraulics and flow direction. The drawdown breakthrough considering the CC catastrophic scenario (RCP8.5) has increased by about 20%. The developed solute transport model was utilized to simulate the salinity spatial distribution and the lateral movement of leaking pollutants from the underway activities. Cultivation activities were found feasible up to 80 km away from the lake border where salinity does not exceed 2000 ppm. Yet, a protection strip of not less than 4.8, 6.0, and 7.2 km according to the lake operating condition is inevitable to ensure that pollutants do not intrude into the lake. These findings will assist the decision-makers in scheming environmental impact assessment criteria for sustainable development.

This study aims at the evaluation of water resources use in Lake Tana sub-basin based on the status of eight development projects that are planned to be executed in this region. Remote sensing and satellite imaging have been used in addition to their product applications. This is vital due to its hydrological significance and direct impact on Egyptian water resources. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has been calculated, for the year 2017, to recognize the agriculture land use and land cover. Then, by integration with the potential agriculture projects basic data, such as water consumption and crop pattern, water resources use in the basin was evaluated and quantified. The analysis performed in this study showed the following: the Koga project was the only implemented project from the proposed eight irrigation and drainage projects; the Megech and South-West (SW) Tana projects are still under construction. The density of the vegetation cover varies yearly from 75% to 100% in the Gumera project, whereas it did not exceed 40% in the North-East and North-West Tana projects. It varies from 15% to 100% in the Megech, Ribb, South-West Tana, and Gilgel Abbay projects. Projects’ calculated NDVI coverages reflect the behavior of the local community in cultivation depending on rainfall (green water), or by direct extraction from rivers as supplementary irrigation (Blue Water). This behavior may be based on their own interests and uses, not based on planning or investment, except for the Koga project. The water consumption from those projects is estimated at about 933 million m³/year.

Synthetic time series created from historical streamflow data are thought of as substitute events with a similar likelihood of recurrence to the real event. This technique has the potential to greatly reduce the uncertainty surrounding measured streamflow. The goal of this study is to create a synthetic streamflow model using a combination of Markov chain and Fourier transform techniques based on long-term historical data for the Nile River. First, the Markov chain’s auto-regression is applied, in which the data’s trend and seasonality are discovered and eliminated before applying the Pearson III distribution function. The Pearson III distribution function is substituted by a discrete Fourier transform (DFT) technique in the second approach. The applicability of the two techniques to simulate the streamflow between 1900 and 1999 is evaluated. The ability of the generated series to maintain the four most important statistical properties of the samples of monthly flows, i.e., the mean, standard deviation, autocorrelation lag coefficient, and cumulative distribution, was used to assess the quality of the series. The results reveal that the two techniques, with small differences in accuracy, reflect the monthly variation in streamflow well in terms of the three mentioned parameters. According to the coefficient of determination (R2) and normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) statistics, the discrete Fourier transform (DFT) approach is somewhat superior for simulating the monthly predicted discharge.

Water scarcity poses a significant challenge in arid and semi-arid regions, necessitating a focused exploration of groundwater resources. Egypt, confronted with various water challenges, particularly in its Western Desert, relies heavily on groundwater as the exclusive water source due to the presence of the Nubian Sandstone aquifer. Effective groundwater management in this region is imperative. This study delves into the hydrogeological characteristics of the Nubian Sandstone aquifer system (NSAS) in the prominent New Valley Oases—Kharga, Dakhla, and Farafra—where agricultural activities heavily depend on groundwater. The primary objective entails a meticulous temporal assessment of the impact of groundwater development on aquifer behavior, groundwater levels, and drawdown. Employing a remote sensing approach, agricultural expansion from 1995 to 2020 was scrutinized. The Visual MODFLOW package served as a robust tool for simulating groundwater flow in the study areas. Noteworthy findings reveal an upward trajectory in agricultural crop areas, escalating by approximately 6% from 1740 km² in 1995 to 1850 km² in 2020. Concurrently, drawdown, influenced by current groundwater extraction, is anticipated to range from 0.5 to 5 meters per year. To ensure the sustainable development of these areas, stringent regulations must be implemented, underscoring the imperative for judicious groundwater management practices. This research underscores the critical need for informed decision-making and proactive measures to address the evolving dynamics of groundwater resources in the New Valley Oases.

Egypt’s Irrigation Improvement Program (IIP) modernizes irrigation water delivery by replacing traditional mesqas (tertiary canals) with pressurized pipelines. IIP faces scalability challenges due to capital cost escalation. Previous research addressed technical performance and institutional arrangements, but absence of inflation-adjusted cost analysis integrated with hydraulic adjustments for optimized improved system remains critical gap. This study addresses this gap by developing and validating an integrated technical and financial framework using Egypt’s formal Consumer Price Index (CPI) applying projections of historical benchmark costs (2000–2016) validated through eight representative model mesqas covering 40,000 feddans and validates hydraulic performance using Darcy-Weisbach and continuity equations. Results demonstrate that traditional IIP design, when inflation-adjusted to 2025 values, costs 34,270 LE (Egyptian pound)/feddan. The optimized design, including reduced pump sizes (30/45 l/s vs. 60/90 l/s), velocity-based hydraulic criteria, and participatory earthworks strategy, achieves a 40% cost reduction to 20,560 LE/feddan, representing potential savings of 13,710 LE/feddan. Sensitivity analysis confirms that savings remain substantial (36–40%) under varying farmer participation (50–100%) and inflation scenarios (± 15%). The findings establish that the proposed optimizations represent prerequisites for program continuation. The adjustments viability depends on two enabling conditions, reliable continuous flow in secondary canals and institutionalized participatory earthworks agreements with Water User Associations.

Egypt has one of the tightest water budgets in the world, while its farmland has been divided into ever-smaller holdings for a century. This paper connects these two issues by pairing a structured literature review with a transparent sensitivity analysis based on Egyptian census data and Nile Delta field studies. It asks how holding size and tenure affect irrigation water application, and how much of the excess consolidation might recover. Holdings rose from about 1.2 million in 1929 to 4.44 million in 2010, while the total holding area grew by only 31%. The average holding fell from 6.1 to 2.2 feddans (0.92 ha), and about 72% of holdings are below 2 feddans. Small, fragmented holdings are assumed to apply 10–20% more water per unit area. Scaled to the Delta, this gives a gross estimate of 1.5–2.7 Bm³ of excess applied water per year. This is applied water, not a basin-scale saving, since part returns to drains and is reused. Crop consolidation could lower applied water by 4–10%, and formal consolidation combined with irrigation modernization by 16–37%. These gains depend on institutional capacity, farmer participation, protection of women and informal rights-holders, and investment in infrastructure and extension. The main limitation is that the estimates rest on assumed and literature-derived parameters, not field measurements. Reducing fragmentation may contribute to improved irrigation water management and water security. A phased path is proposed: crop consolidation and mediated leasing through existing Water User Associations and cooperatives first, then formal consolidation in priority areas.