Diabetes may develop in nondiabetic hypertensive subjects during treatment, but the long-term cardiovascular implications of this phenomenon are not clear. We determined the prognostic value of new diabetes in hypertensive subjects. In a long-term cohort study, 795 initially untreated hypertensive subjects, 6.5% of whom with type 2 diabetes, underwent diagnostic procedures including 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure (BP) monitoring and electrocardiography (ECG). Procedures were repeated after a median of 3.1 years in the absence of cardiovascular events. Follow-up duration was 1 to 16 years (median 6.0). New diabetes occurred in 5.8% of subjects initially without diabetes. Antihypertensive treatment included a diuretic in 53.5% of these subjects, versus 30.4% of those in whom diabetes did not develop ( P =0.002). Plasma glucose at entry ( P =0.0001) and diuretic treatment on follow-up ( P =0.004) were independent predictors of new diabetes. Subsequent to the follow-up visit, a first cardiovascular event occurred in 63 subjects. Event rate in nondiabetic subjects at both visits, new diabetes, and diabetes at entry were 0.97, 3.90, and 4.70×100 person-years, respectively ( P =0.0001). After adjustment for several confounders, including 24-hour ambulatory BP, the relative risk of events was 2.92 (95% CI: 1.33 to 6.41; P =0.007) in the group with new diabetes and 3.57 (95% CI: 1.65 to 7.73; P =0.001) in the group with previous diabetes, when compared with the group persistently free of diabetes. In treated hypertensive subjects, occurrence of new diabetes portends a risk for subsequent cardiovascular disease that is not dissimilar from that of previously known diabetes.

We investigated whether protection from coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke conferred by angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) and calcium channel blockers (CCBs) in hypertensive or high-risk patients may be explained by the specific drug regimen. We extracted summary statistics regarding CHD and stroke from 28 outcome trials that compared either ACEIs or CCBs with diuretics, β-blockers, or placebo for a total of 179 122 patients, 9509 incident cases of CHD, and 5971 cases of stroke. CHD included myocardial infarction and coronary death. In placebo-controlled trials, ACEIs decreased the risk of CHD ( P <0.001), and CCBs reduced stroke incidence ( P <0.001). There were no significant differences in CHD risk between regimens based on diuretics/β-blockers and regimens based on ACEIs ( P =0.46) or CCBs ( P =0.52). The risk of stroke was reduced by CCBs ( P =0.041) but not by ACEIs ( P =0.15) compared with diuretics/β-blockers. Because heterogeneity between trials was significant, we investigated potential sources of heterogeneity by metaregression. Examined covariates were the reduction in systolic blood pressure (BP), drug treatment (ACEIs versus CCBs), their interaction term, sex, age at randomization, year of publication, and duration of treatment. Prevention of CHD was explained by systolic BP reduction ( P <0.001) and use of ACEIs ( P =0.028), whereas prevention of stroke was explained by systolic BP reduction ( P =0.001) and use of CCBs ( P =0.042). These findings confirm that BP lowering is fundamental for prevention of CHD and stroke. However, over and beyond BP reduction, ACEIs appear superior to CCBs for prevention of CHD, whereas CCBs appear superior to ACEIs for prevention of stroke.

Incidence, determinants, and outcome of atrial fibrillation in hypertensive subjects are incompletely known. We followed for up to 16 years 2482 initially untreated subjects with essential hypertension. At entry, all subjects were in sinus rhythm. Subjects with valvular heart disease, coronary artery disease, preexcitation syndrome, thyroid disorders, or lung disease were excluded. During follow-up, a first episode of atrial fibrillation occurred in 61 subjects at a rate of 0.46 per 100 person-years. At entry, subjects with future atrial fibrillation differed (all P <0.05) from those without by age (59 versus 51 years), office, and 24-hour systolic blood pressure (165 and 144 versus 157 and 137 mm Hg, respectively), left ventricular mass (58 versus 49 g/height[m] ^2.7 ), and left atrial diameter (3.89 versus 3.56 cm). Age and left ventricular mass (both P <0.001) were the sole independent predictors of atrial fibrillation. For every 1 standard deviation increase in left ventricular mass, the risk of atrial fibrillation was increased 1.20 times (95% CI, 1.07 to 1.34). Atrial fibrillation became chronic in 33% of subjects. Age, left ventricular mass, and left atrial diameter (all P <0.01) were independent predictors of chronic atrial fibrillation. Ischemic stroke occurred at a rate of 2.7% and 4.6% per year, respectively, among subjects with paroxysmal and chronic atrial fibrillation. These data indicate that in hypertensive subjects with sinus rhythm and no other major predisposing conditions, risk of atrial fibrillation increases with age and left ventricular mass. Increased left atrial size predisposes to chronicization of atrial fibrillation.

We investigated the relationship between the day-night blood pressure (BP) dip and the early morning BP surge in an cohort of 3012 initially untreated subjects with essential hypertension. The day-night reduction in systolic BP showed a direct association with the sleep trough ( r =0.564; P <0.0001) and the preawakening ( r =0.554; P <0.0001) systolic BP surge. Over a mean follow-up period of 8.44 years, 268 subjects developed a major cardiovascular event (composite of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, and heart failure requiring hospitalization) and 220 subjects died. In a Cox model, after adjustment for predictive covariates, including age, sex, diabetes mellitus, cigarette smoking, total cholesterol, left ventricular hypertrophy on ECG, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and average 24-hour systolic BP, a blunted sleep trough (≤19.5 mm Hg; quartile 1) and preawakening (≤9.5 mm Hg; quartile 1) BP surge was associated with an excess risk of events (hazard ratio, 1.66 [95% CI, 1.14–2.42]; P =0.009; hazard ratio, 1.71 [95% CI, 1.12–2.71]; P =0.013). After adjustment for the same covariates, neither the dipping pattern nor the measures of early morning BP surge were independent predictors of mortality. In conclusion, in initially untreated subjects with hypertension, a blunted day-night BP dip was associated with a blunted morning BP surge and vice versa. In these subjects, a blunted morning BP surge was an independent predictor of cardiovascular events, whereas an excessive BP surge did not portend an increased risk of events.