Two billion people are infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis, leading to 10 million new cases of active tuberculosis and 1.5 million deaths annually. Universal access to drug susceptibility testing (DST) has become a World Health Organization priority. We previously developed a software tool, Mykrobe predictor, which provided offline species identification and drug resistance predictions for M. tuberculosis from whole genome sequencing (WGS) data. Performance was insufficient to support the use of WGS as an alternative to conventional phenotype-based DST, due to mutation catalogue limitations. Here we present a new tool, Mykrobe, which provides the same functionality based on a new software implementation. Improvements include i) an updated mutation catalogue giving greater sensitivity to detect pyrazinamide resistance, ii) support for user-defined resistance catalogues, iii) improved identification of non-tuberculous mycobacterial species, and iv) an updated statistical model for Oxford Nanopore Technologies sequencing data. Mykrobe is released under MIT license at https://github.com/mykrobe-tools/mykrobe. We incorporate mutation catalogues from the CRyPTIC consortium et al. (2018) and from Walker et al. (2015), and make improvements based on performance on an initial set of 3206 and an independent set of 5845 M. tuberculosis Illumina sequences. To give estimates of error rates, we use a prospectively collected dataset of 4362 M. tuberculosis isolates. Using culture based DST as the reference, we estimate Mykrobe to be 100%, 95%, 82%, 99% sensitive and 99%, 100%, 99%, 99% specific for rifampicin, isoniazid, pyrazinamide and ethambutol resistance prediction respectively. We benchmark against four other tools on 10207 (=5845+4362) samples, and also show that Mykrobe gives concordant results with nanopore data. We measure the ability of Mykrobe-based DST to guide personalized therapeutic regimen design in the context of complex drug susceptibility profiles, showing 94% concordance of implied regimen with that driven by phenotypic DST, higher than all other benchmarked tools.

Cough assessment is central to the clinical management of respiratory diseases, including tuberculosis (TB), but strategies to objectively and unobtrusively measure cough are lacking. Acoustic epidemiology is an emerging field that uses technology to detect cough sounds and analyze cough patterns to improve health outcomes among people with respiratory conditions linked to cough. This field is increasingly exploring the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) for more advanced applications, such as analyzing cough sounds as a biomarker for disease screening. While much of the data are preliminary, objective cough assessment could potentially transform disease control programs, including TB, and support individual patient management. Here, we present an overview of recent advances in this field and describe how cough assessment, if validated, could support public health programs at various stages of the TB care cascade.

Continuing tuberculosis control with current approaches is unlikely to reach the World Health Organization’s objective to eliminate TB by 2035. Innovative interventions such as unmanned aerial vehicles (or drones) and digital adherence monitoring technologies have the potential to enhance patient-centric quality tuberculosis care and help challenged National Tuberculosis Programs leapfrog over the impediments of conventional Directly Observed Therapy (DOTS) implementation. A bundle of innovative interventions referred to for its delivery technology as the Drone Observed Therapy System (DrOTS) was implemented in remote Madagascar. Given the potentially increased cost these interventions represent for health systems, a cost-effectiveness analysis was indicated. A decision analysis model was created to calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness of the DrOTS strategy compared to DOTS, the standard of care, in a study population of 200,000 inhabitants in rural Madagascar with tuberculosis disease prevalence of 250/100,000. A mixed top-down and bottom-up costing approach was used to identify costs associated with both models, and net costs were calculated accounting for resulting TB treatment costs. Net cost per disability-adjusted life years averted was calculated. Sensitivity analyses were performed for key input variables to identify main drivers of health and cost outcomes, and cost-effectiveness. Net cost per TB patient identified within DOTS and DrOTS were, respectively, $282 and $1,172. The incremental cost per additional TB patient diagnosed in DrOTS was $2,631 and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of DrOTS compared to DOTS was $177 per DALY averted. Analyses suggest that integrating drones with interventions ensuring highly sensitive laboratory testing and high treatment adherence optimizes cost-effectiveness. Innovative technology packages including drones, digital adherence monitoring technologies, and molecular diagnostics for TB case finding and retention within the cascade of care can be cost effective. Their integration with other interventions within health systems may further lower costs and support access to universal health coverage.

Research question: Can smartphones be used to detect individual and population-level changes in cough frequency that correlate with the incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and other respiratory infections?Methods: This was a prospective cohort study carried out in Pamplona (Spain) between 2020 and 2021 using artificial intelligence cough detection software. Changes in cough frequency around the time of medical consultation were evaluated using a randomisation routine; significance was tested by comparing the distribution of cough frequencies to that obtained from a model of no difference. The correlation between changes of cough frequency and COVID-19 incidence was studied using an autoregressive moving average analysis, and its strength determined by calculating its autocorrelation function (ACF). Predictors for the regular use of the system were studied using a linear regression. Overall user experience was evaluated using a satisfaction questionnaire and through focused group discussions.Results: We followed-up 616 participants and collected >62 000 coughs. Coughs per hour surged around the time cohort subjects sought medical care (difference +0.77 coughs·h⁻¹; p=0.00001). There was a weak temporal correlation between aggregated coughs and the incidence of COVID-19 in the local population (ACF 0.43). Technical issues affected uptake and regular use of the system.Interpretation: Artificial intelligence systems can detect changes in cough frequency that temporarily correlate with the onset of clinical disease at the individual level. A clearer correlation with population-level COVID-19 incidence, or other respiratory conditions, could be achieved with better penetration and compliance with cough monitoring.

Universal access to drug susceptibility testing for newly diagnosed tuberculosis patients is recommended. Access to culture-based diagnostics remains limited, and targeted molecular assays are vulnerable to emerging resistance mutations.

Research question: What is the impact of the duration of cough monitoring on its accuracy in detecting changes in the cough frequency?Materials and methods: This is a statistical analysis of a prospective cohort study. Participants were recruited in the city of Pamplona (Northern Spain), and their cough frequency was passively monitored using smartphone-based acoustic artificial intelligence software. Differences in cough frequency were compared using a one-tailed Mann–Whitney U test and a randomisation routine to simulate 24-h monitoring.Results: 616 participants were monitored for an aggregated duration of over 9 person-years and registered 62 325 coughs. This empiric analysis found that an individual's cough patterns are stochastic, following a binomial distribution. When compared to continuous monitoring, limiting observation to 24 h can lead to inaccurate estimates of change in cough frequency, particularly in persons with low or small changes in rate.Interpretation: Detecting changes in an individual's rate of coughing is complicated by significant stochastic variability within and between days. Assessing change based solely on intermittent sampling, including 24-h, can be misleading. This is particularly problematic in detecting small changes in individuals who have a low rate and/or high variance in cough pattern.