Department of Operations Research and Business Intelligence, Wrocław University of Science and Technology, Wyb. Wyspiańskiego 27, 50-370 Wrocław, Poland
Prof. Rafał Weron
Department of Operations Research and Business Intelligence, Wrocław University of Science and Technology, Wyb. Wyspiańskiego 27, 50-370 Wrocław, Poland
A variety of methods and ideas have been tried for electricity price forecasting (EPF) over the last 15 years, with varying degrees of success. This review article aims to explain the complexity of available solutions, their strengths and weaknesses, and the opportunities and threats that the forecasting tools offer or that may be encountered. The paper also looks ahead and speculates on the directions EPF will or should take in the next decade or so. In particular, it postulates the need for objective comparative EPF studies involving (i) the same datasets, (ii) the same robust error evaluation procedures, and (iii) statistical testing of the significance of one model’s outperformance of another
9 October 2020 in IEEE Open Access Journal of Power and Energy
Forecasting has been an essential part of the power and energy industry. Researchers and practitioners have contributed thousands of papers on forecasting electricity demand and prices, and renewable generation (e.g., wind and solar power). This paper offers a brief review of influential energy forecasting papers; summarizes research trends; discusses importance of reproducible research and points out six valuable open data sources; makes recommendations about publishing high-quality research papers; and offers an outlook into the future of energy forecasting.