Natural granular materials widely used in building and infrastructure development consume a considerable number of natural resources. To avoid depleting natural granular materials, recycled concrete aggregates (RCA) from construction and demolition waste are now commonly used as an alternative. The mechanical behavior of RCA used in road construction is highly influenced by field conditions such as traffic load and moisture variation. The particle breakage of RCA influences long-term pavement performance because it changes the RCA grading over time. However, the effect of moisture content (m.c.) on mechanical behavior and particle breakage during compaction and cyclic loading is often neglected. The aims of the study were to investigate the mechanism of permanent deformation development due to moisture change, the breakage response of RCA in this process, and the assessment of existing permanent deformation prediction model. The results showed that initial m.c. effectively controlled the deformation of RCA; the permanent axial strain (ε_pa) was enhanced, and the breakage of coarse fraction (19~9.5 mm) under cyclic loading was reduced at higher levels of m.c. Based on the experimental results, a modified model for predicting ε_pa was proposed, incorporating a deviation factor induced by m.c. The model fitted the experimental data well, suggesting that it is useful to have a quantitative estimation of ε_pa of RCA with different m.c. under cyclic loading.