Global climate change poses one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. Most analyses of the potential biological impacts have focused on changes in mean temperature, but changes in thermal variance will also impact organisms and populations. We assessed the combined effects of the mean and variance of temperature on thermal tolerances, organismal survival, and population growth in Drosophila melanogaster. Because the performance of ectotherms relates nonlinearly to temperature, we predicted that responses to thermal variation (±0° or ±5°C) would depend on the mean temperature (17° or 24°C). Consistent with our prediction, thermal variation enhanced the rate of population growth (r(max)) at a low mean temperature but depressed this rate at a high mean temperature. The interactive effect on fitness occurred despite the fact that flies improved their heat and cold tolerances through acclimation to thermal conditions. Flies exposed to a high mean and a high variance of temperature recovered from heat coma faster and survived heat exposure better than did flies that developed at other conditions. Relatively high survival following heat exposure was associated with low survival following cold exposure. Recovery from chill coma was affected primarily by the mean temperature; flies acclimated to a low mean temperature recovered much faster than did flies acclimated to a high mean temperature. To develop more realistic predictions about the biological impacts of climate change, one must consider the interactions between the mean environmental temperature and the variance of environmental temperature.

Small resident bird species living at northern latitudes increase their metabolism in winter, and this is widely assumed to improve their chances of survival. However, the relationship between winter metabolic performance and survival has yet to be demonstrated. Using capture-mark-recapture, we followed a population of free-living black-capped chickadees (Poecile atricapillus) over 3 yr and evaluated their survival probability within and among winters. We also measured the size-independent body mass (M_s), hematocrit (Hct), basal metabolic rate (BMR), and maximal thermogenic capacity (Msum) and investigated how these parameters influenced survival within and among winters. Results showed that survival probability was high and constant both within (0.92) and among (0.96) winters. They also showed that while M_s, Hct, and BMR had no significant influence, survival was positively related to Msum—following a sigmoid relationship—within but not among winter. Birds expressing an Msum below 1.26 W (i.e., similar to summer levels) had a <50% chance of survival, while birds with an Msum above 1.35 W had at least a 90% chance of surviving through the winter. Our data therefore suggest that black-capped chickadees that are either too slow or unable to adjust their phenotype from summer to winter have little chances of survival and thus that seasonal upregulation of metabolic performance is highly beneficial. This study is the first to document in an avian system the relationship between thermogenic capacity and winter survival, a proxy of fitness.

We examined the diet of 4 annual fishes, Austrolebias viarius, Austrolebias cheradophilus, Austrolebias luteoflammulatus and Cynopoecilus melanotaenia inhabiting temporal ponds of southeastern Uruguay, by analysis of stomach contents. Fishes were captured from fifty ephemeral ponds of Castillos Lagoon basin, in the region of the Humedales del Este. We identified 13099 individual prey items extracted from 669 stomachs of the four captured species. In the studied system, annual killifishes represents the most abundant and conspicuous top predators. Killifishes are generalist key predators at the ephemeral ponds of the studied system, consuming mostly aquatic items. Zooplancton represented the bulk of the diet in the four analyzed species, followed by eggs, algae and diatoms. Insects are the next group in prey number, as follows: Diptera larvae (especially Chironomidae and Cullicidae), Ephemeroptera (especially Betidae), and coleopteran larvae (especially Dytiscidae). Acari are also important prey in number. The four fish species differ in diet composition and in diet richness. A general pattern of differences in diet richness among killifish species and demographic groups could be related to variations in body sizes. As top predators annual killifishes are an important component of the temporal pond ecosystems. Understanding the natural history of this species and their communities is necessary in order to conserve them.

Phenotypic plasticity may increase the performance and fitness and allow organisms to cope with variable environmental conditions. We studied within‐generation plasticity and transgenerational effects of thermal conditions on temperature tolerance and demographic parameters inDrosophila melanogaster. We employed a fully factorial design, in which both parental (P) and offspring generations (F1) were reared in a constant or a variable thermal environment. Thermal variability during ontogeny increased heat tolerance in P, but with demographic cost as this treatment resulted in substantially lower survival, fecundity, and net reproductive rate. The adverse effects of thermal variability (V) on demographic parameters were less drastic in flies from the F1, which exhibited higher net reproductive rates than their parents. These compensatory responses could not totally overcome the challenges of the thermally variable regime, contrasting with the offspring of flies raised in a constant temperature (C) that showed no reduction in fitness with thermal variation. Thus, the parental thermal environment had effects on thermal tolerance and demographic parameters in fruit fly. These results demonstrate how transgenerational effects of environmental conditions on heat tolerance, as well as their potential costs on other fitness components, can have a major impact on populations’ resilience to warming temperatures and more frequent thermal extremes.

Temperature is a major factor affecting population abundance and individual performance. Net reproductive rate (R0) and intrinsic rate of increase (r) differ in their response to different temperature regimes, and much of the difference is mediated by generation time (Tg). Here, we evaluate the effects of thermal mean and variability on R0, r and Tg, at four population densities in Drosophila melanogaster. The results show that R0, r and Tg present differential responses to thermal variation. Although temperature effects on R0 and Tg are non-linear, r response was negligible. R0 and Tg comprise a generational time scale, while r is at a chronological time scale. Thus, we argue that individuals growing under different thermal environments perform similarly on a chronological scale, but differently on a generational scale.