Discharge planning is integral to patient flow as delays can lead to hospital-wide congestion. Because a structured discharge plan can reduce hospital length of stay while enhancing patient satisfaction, this topic has caught the interest of many healthcare professionals and researchers. Predicting discharge outcomes, such as destination and time, is crucial in discharge planning by helping healthcare providers anticipate patient needs and resource requirements. This article examines the literature on the prediction of various discharge outcomes. Our review discovered papers that explore the use of prediction models to forecast the time, volume, and destination of discharged patients. Of the 101 reviewed papers, 49.5% looked at the prediction with machine learning tools, and 50.5% focused on prediction with statistical methods. The fact that knowing discharge outcomes in advance affects operational, tactical, medical, and administrative aspects is a frequent theme in the papers studied. Furthermore, conducting system-wide optimization, predicting the time and destination of patients after discharge, and addressing the primary causes of discharge delay in the process are among the recommendations for further research in this field.

Many countries have aging populations. Thus, the need for palliative care will increase. However, the methods to estimate optimal staffing for specialist palliative care teams are rudimentary as yet. To develop a population-need workforce planning model for community-based palliative care specialist teams and to apply the model to forecast the staff needed to care for all patients with terminal illness, organ failure, and frailty during the next 20 years, with and without the expansion of primary palliative care. We used operations research (linear programming) to model the problem. We used the framework of the Canadian Society of Palliative Care Physicians and the Nova Scotia palliative care strategy to apply the model. To meet the palliative care needs for persons dying across Nova Scotia in 2019, the model generated an estimate of 70.8 nurses, 23.6 physicians, and 11.9 social workers, a total of 106.3 staff. Thereby, the model indicated that a 64% increase in specialist palliative care staff was needed immediately, and a further 13.1% increase would be needed during the next 20 years. Trained primary palliative care providers currently meet 3.7% of need, and with their expansion are expected to meet 20.3% by 2038. Historical, current, and projected data can be used with operations research to forecast staffing levels for specialist palliative care teams under various scenarios. The forecast can be updated as new data emerge, applied to other populations, and used to test alternative delivery models.

Background: The growing demand for healthcare services challenges patient flow management in health systems. Alternative Level of Care (ALC) patients who no longer need acute care yet face discharge barriers contribute to prolonged stays and hospital overcrowding. Predicting these patients at admission allows for better resource planning, reducing bottlenecks, and improving flow. This study addresses three objectives: identifying likely ALC patients, key predictive features, and preparing guidelines for early ALC identification at admission. Methods: Data from Nova Scotia Health (2015-2022) covering patient demographics, diagnoses, and clinical information was extracted. Data preparation involved managing outliers, feature engineering, handling missing values, transforming categorical variables, and standardizing. Data imbalance was addressed using class weights, random oversampling, and the Synthetic Minority Over-Sampling Technique (SMOTE). Three ML classifiers, Random Forest (RF), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), were tested to classify patients as ALC or not. Also, to ensure accurate ALC prediction at admission, only features available at that time were used in a separate model iteration. Results: Model performance was assessed using recall, F1-Score, and AUC metrics. The XGB model with SMOTE achieved the highest performance, with a recall of 0.95 and an AUC of 0.97, excelling in identifying ALC patients. The next best models were XGB with random oversampling and ANN with class weights. When limited to admission-only features, the XGB with SMOTE still performed well, achieving a recall of 0.91 and an AUC of 0.94, demonstrating its effectiveness in early ALC prediction. Additionally, the analysis identified diagnosis 1, patient age, and entry code as the top three predictors of ALC status. Conclusions: The results demonstrate the potential of ML models to predict ALC status at admission. The findings support real-time decision-making to improve patient flow and reduce hospital overcrowding. The ALC guideline groups patients first by diagnosis, then by age, and finally by entry code, categorizing prediction outcomes into three probability ranges: below 30%, 30-70%, and above 70%. This framework assesses whether ALC status can be accurately predicted at admission or during the patient’s stay before discharge.