31 October 2013 in Real Estate Economics
11 July 2017 in The Review of Financial Studies
Direct government intervention in a market may induce violations of the law of one price in other, arbitrage-related markets. I show that a government pursuing a nonpublic, partially informative price target in a model of strategic market-order trading and segmented dealership generates equilibrium price differentials among fundamentally identical assets by clouding dealers’ inference about the targeted asset’s payoff from its order flow, to an extent complexly dependent on existing price formation. I find supportive evidence using a sample of American Depositary Receipts and other cross-listings traded in the major U.S. exchanges, along with currency interventions by developed and emerging countries between 1980 and 2009.Received May 18, 2016; editorial decision May 10, 2017 by Editor Andrew Karolyi.
18 December 2018 in Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
We study the impact of permanent open market operations (POMOs) by the Federal Reserve on U.S. Treasury market liquidity. Using a parsimonious model of speculative trading, we conjecture that i) this form of government interventionimprovesmarket liquidity, contrary to conclusions drawn by existing literature; and ii) the extent of this improvement depends on the market’s information environment. Evidence from a novel sample of Federal Reserve POMOs during the 2000s indicates that bid–ask spreads of on-the-run Treasury securitiesdeclinewhen POMOs are executed, by an amount increasing in proxies for information heterogeneity among speculators, fundamental volatility, and POMO policy uncertainty, consistent with our model.
28 February 2023 in Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
Sophisticated investors frequently choose to publicly disclose private information, a phenomenon inconsistent with most theories of speculation. We propose and test a model to bridge this gap. We show that when a speculator cares about both short-term portfolio value and long-term profit, a disclosure mixing asset fundamentals and her holdings is optimal by inducing competitive dealership to revise prices toward those holdings while alleviating adverse selection. We find that when mutual fund managers have stronger short-term incentives, the frequency of strategic non-anonymous disclosures about their stocks by market-worthy newspaper articles increases and those stocks’ liquidity improves, consistent with our model.
7 March 2022 in The Review of Corporate Finance Studies