Background: Risk factors for developing long COVID are not clearly established. The present study was designed to determine if any sign, symptom, or treatment of the acute phase, or personal characteristics of the patient, is associated with the development of long COVID. Methods: A cohort study was carried out, randomly selecting symptomatic COVID-19 patients and not vaccinated. The severity of the acute illness was assessed through the number of compatible COVID-19 symptoms, hospitalizations, and the symptom severity score using a 10-point visual analog scale. Results: After multivariate analysis, a severity score ≥8 (RR 2.0, 95%CI 1.1–3.5, p = 0.022), hospitalization (RR 2.1, 95%CI 1.0–4.4, p = 0.039), myalgia (RR 1.9, 95%CI 1.08–3.6, p = 0.027), tachycardia (RR 10.4, 95%CI 2.2–47.7, p = 0.003), and use of antibiotics (RR 2.0, 95%CI 1.1–3.5, p = 0.022), was positively associated with the risk of having long COVID. Higher levels of education (RR 0.6, 95%CI 0.4–0.9, p = 0.029) and type positive B blood group (B + AB, RR 0.44, 95%CI 0.2–0.9, p = 0.044) were protective factors. The most important population attributable fractions (PAFs) for long COVID were myalgia (37%), severity score ≥8 (31%), and use of antibiotics (27%). Conclusions: Further studies in diverse populations over time are needed to expand the knowledge that could lead us to prevent and/or treat long COVID.

We use survival analysis to analyze the decay in the protection induced by eight SARS-CoV-2 vaccines using data from 33,418 fully anonymized patients from the IMSS public health system in Mexico, including only previously vaccinated, confirmed SARS-CoV-2 positive with a PCR test. We analyze the waning effect in those with complete vs. incomplete dose fitting a Weibull distribution. We compare these results with an estimate of the waning effect due to active infection. In two-dose vaccines, we found that the average protection time of a complete dose increases 2.6 times compared to that of an incomplete dose. All analyzed vaccines provided a protection that lasted longer than the protection due to active infection, except in those patients that did not fulfilled the complete dose. The average protection of a full dose is 2.2 times larger than that provided by active infection. The average protection of active infection is about the same as the average protection of an incomplete dose. All evaluated vaccines had lost most of their protective effect between 8 and 11 months of application of first shot. Our results highly correlate with NT₅₀ and other estimates of vaccine efficacy. We found that on average, vaccination increases Age₅₀, the age at which there is a 50% probability of severe disease if infected, in 15 years. We also found that Age₅₀ increases with mean protection time.

Background: To identify factors predicting severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in adolescent and adult patients with laboratory-positive (quantitative reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction) infection.Method: A retrospective cohort study took place, and data from 740 subjects, from all 32 states of Mexico, were analyzed. The association between the studied factors and severe (dyspnea requiring hospital admission) COVID-19 was evaluated through risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).Results: Severe illness was documented in 28% of participants. In multiple analysis, male gender (RR = 1.13, 95% CI 1.06–1.20), advanced age ([reference: 15–29 years old] 30–44, RR = 1.02, 95% CI 0.94–1.11; 45–59, RR = 1.26, 95% CI 1.15–1.38; 60 years or older, RR = 1.44, 95% CI 1.29–1.60), chronic kidney disease (RR = 1.31, 95% CI 1.04–1.64) and thoracic pain (RR = 1.16, 95% CI 1.10–1.24) were associated with an increased risk of severe disease.Conclusions: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study evaluating predictors of COVID-19 severity in a large subset of the Latin-American population. Male gender and kidney illness were independently associated with the risk of severe COVID-19. These results may be useful for health care protocols for the early detection and management of patients that may benefit from opportune and specialized supportive medical treatment.