Nigar Nargis

Dr. Nigar Nargis

American Cancer Society, Economic and Health Policy Research, Atlanta, United States
orcid

Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

13Years (2014-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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25 January 2019 in Addiction
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
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Shannon GravelyShannon Gravely
Shannon Gravely
Pete DriezenPete Driezen
Pete Driezen
JOJanine Ouimet
Janine Ouimet
AQAnne C. K. Quah
Anne C. K. Quah
KCK. Michael Cummings
K. Michael Cummings
GFGeoffrey T. Fong
Geoffrey T. Fong
Aims: This paper presents updated prevalence estimates of awareness, ever‐use, and current use of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) from 14 International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project (ITC Project) countries that have varying regulations governing NVP sales and marketing.Design, Setting, Participants and Measurements: A cross‐sectional analysis of adult (≥ 18 years) current smokers and ex‐smokers from 14 countries participating in the ITC Project. Data from the most recent survey questionnaire for each country were included, which spanned the period 2013–17. Countries were categorized into four groups based on regulations governing NVP sales and marketing (allowable or not), and level of enforcement (strict or weak where NVPs are not permitted to be sold): (1) most restrictive policies (MRPs), not legal to be sold or marketed with strict enforcement: Australia, Brazil, Uruguay; (2) restrictive policies (RPs), not approved for sale or marketing with weak enforcement: Canada, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand; (3) less restrictive policies (LRPs), legal to be sold and marketed with regulations: England, the Netherlands, Republic of Korea, United States; and (4) no regulatory policies (NRPs), Bangladesh, China, Zambia. Countries were also grouped by World Bank Income Classifications. Country‐specific weighted logistic regression models estimated adjusted NVP prevalence estimates for: awareness, ever/current use, and frequency of use (daily versus non‐daily).Findings: NVP awareness and use were lowest in NRP countries. Generally, ever‐ and current use of NVPs were lower in MRP countries (ever‐use = 7.1–48.9%; current use = 0.3–3.5%) relative to LRP countries (ever‐use = 38.9–66.6%; current use = 5.5–17.2%) and RP countries (ever‐use = 10.0–62.4%; current use = 1.4–15.5%). NVP use was highest among high‐income countries, followed by upper–middle‐income countries, and then by lower–middle‐income countries.Conclusions: With a few exceptions, awareness and use of nicotine vaping products varied by the strength of national regulations governing nicotine vaping product sales/marketing, and by country income. In countries with no regulatory policies, use rates were very low, suggesting that there was little availability, marketing and/or interest in nicotine vaping products in these countries where smoking populations are predominantly poorer. The higher awareness and use of nicotine vaping products in high income countries with moderately (e.g. Canada, New Zealand) and less (e.g. England, United States) restrictive policies, is likely due to the greater availability and affordability of nicotine vaping products.

11 November 2015 in PLOS ONE
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
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NNNigar Nargis
Nigar Nargis
MTMary E Thompson
Mary E Thompson
GFGeoffrey T Fong
Geoffrey T Fong
Pete DriezenPete Driezen
Pete Driezen
AHA K M Ghulam Hussain
A K M Ghulam Hussain
AAAbu S Abdullah
Abu S Abdullah
Smoking and passive smoking are collectively the biggest preventable cause of death in Bangladesh, with major public health burden of morbidity, disability, mortality and community costs. The available studies of tobacco use in Bangladesh, however, do not necessarily employ nationally representative samples needed to monitor the problem at a national scale. This paper examines the prevalence and patterns of tobacco use among adults in Bangladesh and the changes over time using large nationally representative comparable surveys. Using data from two enumerations of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Bangladesh Project conducted in 2009 and 2012, prevalence estimates are obtained for all tobacco products by socio-economic determinants and sample types of over 90,000 individuals drawn from over 30,000 households. Household level sample weights are used to obtain nationally representative prevalence estimates and standard errors. Statistical tests of difference in the estimates between two time periods are based on a logistic regression model that accounts for the complex sampling design. Using a multinomial logit model, the time trend in tobacco use status is identified to capture the effects of macro level determinants including changes in tobacco control policies. Between 2009 and 2012, overall tobacco use went down from 42.4% to 36.3%. The decline is more pronounced with respect to smokeless tobacco use than smoking. The prevalence of exclusive cigarette smoking went up from 7.2% to 10.6%; exclusive bidi smoking remained stable at around 2%; while smoking both cigarette and bidi went down from 4.6% to 1.8%; exclusive smokeless tobacco use went down from 20.2% to 16.9%; and both smokeless tobacco use and smoking went down from 8.4% to 5.1%. In general, the prevalence of tobacco use is higher among men, increases from younger to older age groups, and is higher among poorer people. Smoking prevalence is the highest among the slum population, followed by the tribal population, the national population and the border area population, suggesting greater burden of tobacco use among the disadvantaged groups. The overall decline in tobacco use can be viewed as a structural shift in the tobacco market in Bangladesh from low value products such as bidi and smokeless tobacco to high value cigarettes, which is expected with the growth in income and purchasing power of the general population. Despite the reduction in overall tobacco use, the male smoking prevalence in Bangladesh is still high at 37%. The world average of daily smoking among men is 31.1%. The Tobacco Control Act 2005 and the Amendment have yet to make a significant impact in curbing tobacco usage in Bangladesh. The findings in this paper further suggest that the tobacco control policies in Bangladesh need to include targeted interventions to restrain the use of particular types of tobacco products among specific demographic and socio-economic groups of the population, such as smoked tobacco among men, smokeless tobacco among women, and both smoked and smokeless tobacco among those living in rural areas, those in low socio-economic status and those belonging to the tribal and the slum population.

17 June 2019 in Tobacco Control
Verified
Journal Article
Closed access
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MSMichal Stoklosa
Michal Stoklosa
ZCZachary Cahn
Zachary Cahn
ALAlex Liber
Alex Liber
NNNigar Nargis
Nigar Nargis
JDJeffrey Drope
Jeffrey Drope
Background Philip Morris International, one of the largest transnational cigarette manufacturers, has heavily invested in its new heated tobacco product, IQOS, marketing it aggressively as a less harmful alternative to cigarette smoking. The company’s assertions that the product replaces cigarettes in a market have never been independently tested. The objective of this study is to determine whether introduction of IQOS affected cigarette sales in a large economy. Data and Methods Using 2014 to 2018 monthly retailer panel data from Japan, we analyse whether different dates of IQOS introduction across Japan’s regions are reflected in the patterns of cigarette sales in those regions. A series of placebo models are estimated to test if events other than IQOS introduction could have better explained the observed trends in cigarette sales. Results Cigarette sales begin to substantially decline at the time of the introduction of IQOS in each of 11 Japanese regions (Chow tests p<0.001). IQOS introduction, which varied across regions, better predicted the timing of cigarette sales decline than any one time applied to all regions simultaneously (a national-level exogenous shock) and than nearly all possible rearrangements of the true IQOS introduction months among the regions (exact permutation test’s p value from 0.02 to 0.13, depending on the study approach). Conclusions The introduction of IQOS likely reduced cigarette sales in Japan. The net population health impact, however, cannot be assessed without resolving several key uncertainties related to the direct harms of IQOS and the precise patterns of both smoking and IQOS use.

6 September 2019 in PLOS ONE
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Journal Article
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NNNigar Nargis
Nigar Nargis
HYHua-Hie Yong
Hua-Hie Yong
Pete DriezenPete Driezen
Pete Driezen
LMLazarous Mbulo
Lazarous Mbulo
LZLuhua Zhao
Luhua Zhao
MSMohammad Siahpush
Mohammad Siahpush
Tobacco smoking is often more prevalent among those with lower socio-economic status (SES) in high-income countries, which can be driven by the inequalities in initiation and cessation of smoking. Smoking is a leading contributor to socio-economic disparities in health. To date, the evidence for any socio-economic inequality in smoking cessation is lacking, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This study examined the association between cessation behaviours and SES of smokers from eight LMICs. Data among former and current adult smokers aged 18 and older came from contemporaneous Global Adult Tobacco Surveys (2008–2011) and the International Tobacco Control Surveys (2009–2013) conducted in eight LMICs (Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, Mexico, Malaysia, Thailand and Uruguay). Adjusted odds ratios (AORs) of successful quitting in the past year by SES indicators (household income/wealth, education, employment status, and rural-urban residence) were estimated using multivariable logistic regression controlling for socio-demographics and average tobacco product prices. A random effects meta-analysis was used to combine the estimates of AORs pooled across countries and two concurrent surveys for each country. Estimated quit rates among smokers (both daily and occasional) varied widely across countries. Meta-analysis of pooled AORs across countries and data sources indicated that there was no clear evidence of an association between SES indicators and successful quitting. The only exception was employed smokers, who were less likely to quit than their non-employed counterparts, which included students, homemakers, retirees, and the unemployed (pooled AOR≈0.8, p<0.10). Lack of clear evidence of the impact of lower SES on adult cessation behaviour in LMICs suggests that lower-SES smokers are not less successful in their attempts to quit than their higher-SES counterparts. Specifically, lack of employment, which is indicative of younger age and lower nicotine dependence for students, or lower personal disposable income and lower affordability for the unemployed and the retirees, may be associated with quitting. Raising taxes and prices of tobacco products that lowers affordability of tobacco products might be a key strategy for inducing cessation behaviour among current smokers and reducing overall tobacco consumption. Because low-SES smokers are more sensitive to price increases, tobacco taxation policy can induce disproportionately larger decreases in tobacco consumption among them and help reduce socio-economic disparities in smoking and consequent health outcomes.

22 July 2020 in Nicotine & Tobacco Research
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Journal Article
Open access
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NNNigar Nargis
Nigar Nargis
MSMichal Stoklosa
Michal Stoklosa
Ce ShangCe Shang
Ce Shang
JDJeffrey Drope
Jeffrey Drope
Introduction: Tobacco product prices and consumers’ income are the two major economic determinants of tobacco demand. The affordability of tobacco products is dependent on the price of tobacco products relative to consumer income. Increase in tobacco tax is expected to lead to higher price, lower affordability, and reduced consumption. Price elasticity and affordability elasticity are used in analyzing the effect of tobacco tax increases on tobacco consumption and public health. The availability of both parameters raises the question of which one to apply in policy discussions. Aims and Methods: Using global data on cigarette consumption, price, income, and tobacco control measures for 169 countries over 2007–2016, this study estimated the price elasticity and affordability elasticity of cigarette consumption by country income classification using country-specific fixed effects model for panel data. Results: The estimates show that the restriction of equal strength of the effects of price and income changes on tobacco consumption maintained in affordability elasticity estimation is valid for low- and middle-income countries, while it is rejected for high-income countries. Conclusions: Affordability elasticity may prove to be a useful parameter to explain and predict the sensitivity of consumers to tobacco tax and price policy changes under conditions of robust economic growth, which are more likely to be observed in countries with initial low- or middle-income setting. It can provide a reasonable benchmark for tobacco tax and price increase necessary to effectively reduce affordability and consumption of tobacco, which can form a basis for building systematic tax and price increases into the tobacco tax policy mechanism. Implications: Price elasticity measures the sensitivity of consumers to changes in real prices, holding real income constant. Affordability elasticity measures the sensitivity of consumers to price changes adjusted for inflation and income changes. Existing scientific literature on tobacco demand abounds in both price and affordability elasticity estimates, without providing a clear explanation of the theoretical and policy implications of using one parameter over the other. By estimating and comparing price and affordability elasticities for high-income and low-and-middle-income countries separately, this article offers a guide to the practitioners in tobacco taxation for evaluating the effectiveness of tax-induced price increases on tobacco consumption.

19 May 2021 in Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention
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Journal Article
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PBPriti Bandi
Priti Bandi
AMAdair K. Minihan
Adair K. Minihan
RSRebecca L. Siegel
Rebecca L. Siegel
FIFarhad Islami
Farhad Islami
NNNigar Nargis
Nigar Nargis
SFStacey A. Fedewa
Stacey A. Fedewa
Cancer prevention and early detection efforts are central to reducing cancer burden. Herein, we present estimates of cancer risk factors and screening tests in 2018 and 2019 among US adults, with a focus on smoking cessation. Cigarette smoking reached a historic low in 2019 (14.2%) partly because 61.7% (54.9 million) of all persons who had ever smoked had quit. Yet, the quit ratio was <45% among lower-income, uninsured, and Medicaid-insured persons, and was <55% among Black, American Indian/Alaska Native, lower-educated, lesbian, gay or bisexual, and recent immigrant persons, and in 12 of 17 Southern states. Obesity levels remain high (2017–2018: 42.4%) and were disproportionately higher among Black (56.9%) and Hispanic (43.7%) women. HPV vaccination in adolescents 13 to 17 years remains underutilized and over 40% were not up-to-date in 2019. Cancer screening prevalence was suboptimal in 2018 (colorectal cancer ≥50 years: 65.6%; breast ≥45 years: 63.2%; cervical 21–65 years: 83.7%), especially among uninsured adults (colorectal: 29.8%; breast: 31.1%). This snapshot of cancer prevention and early detection measures was mixed, and substantial racial/ethnic and socioeconomic disparities persisted. However, gains could be accelerated with targeted interventions to increase smoking cessation in under-resourced populations, stem the obesity epidemic, and improve screening and HPV vaccination coverage.