Marcos E. Orchard

Dr. Marcos E. Orchard

Departamento de Ingeniería Eléctrica, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Región Metropolitana, Chile
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Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

24Years (2003-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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10 June 2009 in Transactions of the Institute of Measurement and Control
Verified
Journal Article
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MOMarcos E. Orchard
Marcos E. Orchard
GVGeorge J. Vachtsevanos
George J. Vachtsevanos
This paper introduces an on-line particle-filtering (PF)-based framework for fault diagnosis and failure prognosis in non-linear, non-Gaussian systems. This framework considers the implementation of two autonomous modules. A fault detection and identification (FDI) module uses a hybrid state-space model of the plant and a PF algorithm to estimate the state probability density function (pdf) of the system and calculates the probability of a fault condition in real-time. Once the anomalous condition is detected, the available state pdf estimates are used as initial conditions in prognostic routines. The failure prognostic module, on the other hand, predicts the evolution in time of the fault indicator and computes the pdf of the remaining useful life (RUL) of the faulty subsystem, using a non-linear state-space model (with unknown time-varying parameters) and a PF algorithm that updates the current state estimate. The outcome of the prognosis module provides information about the precision and accuracy of long-term predictions, RUL expectations and 95% confidence intervals for the condition under study. Data from a seeded fault test for a UH-60 planetary gear plate are used to validate the proposed approach.

17 September 2019 in IEEE Transactions on Reliability
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Journal Article
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Mojtaba KordestaniMojtaba Kordestani
Mojtaba Kordestani
Mehrdad SaifMehrdad Saif
Mehrdad Saif
MOMarcos E. Orchard
Marcos E. Orchard
Roozbeh Razavi-FarRoozbeh Razavi-Far
Roozbeh Razavi-Far
Khashayar KhorasaniKhashayar Khorasani
Khashayar Khorasani
Fault diagnosis and prognosis are some of the most crucial functionalities in complex and safety-critical engineering systems, and particularly fault diagnosis, has been a subject of intensive research in the past four decades. Such capabilities allow for detection and isolation of early developing faults as well as prediction of fault propagation, which can allow for preventive maintenance, or even serve as a countermeasure to the possibility of catastrophic incidence as a result of a failure. Following a short preliminary overview and definitions, this article provides a survey of recent research on fault prognosis. Additionally, we report on some of the significant application domains where prognosis techniques are employed. Finally, some potential directions for future research are outlined.

15 July 2010 in IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics
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Journal Article
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BZBin Zhang
Bin Zhang
CSChris Sconyers
Chris Sconyers
CBCarl Byington
Carl Byington
RPRomano Patrick
Romano Patrick
MOMarcos E. Orchard
Marcos E. Orchard
GVGeorge Vachtsevanos
George Vachtsevanos
This paper introduces a method to detect a fault associated with critical components/subsystems of an engineered system. It is required, in this case, to detect the fault condition as early as possible, with specified degree of confidence and a prescribed false alarm rate. Innovative features of the enabling technologies include a Bayesian estimation algorithm called particle filtering, which employs features or condition indicators derived from sensor data in combination with simple models of the system's degrading state to detect a deviation or discrepancy between a baseline (no-fault) distribution and its current counterpart. The scheme requires a fault progression model describing the degrading state of the system in the operation. A generic model based on fatigue analysis is provided and its parameters adaptation is discussed in detail. The scheme provides the probability of abnormal condition and the presence of a fault is confirmed for a given confidence level. The efficacy of the proposed approach is illustrated with data acquired from bearings typically found on aircraft and monitored via a properly instrumented test rig.

10 December 2010 in IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics
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Journal Article
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CCChaochao Chen
Chaochao Chen
BZBin Zhang
Bin Zhang
GVGeorge Vachtsevanos
George Vachtsevanos
MOMarcos E. Orchard
Marcos E. Orchard
Machine prognosis is a significant part of condition-based maintenance and intends to monitor and track the time evolution of a fault so that maintenance can be performed or the task can be terminated to avoid a catastrophic failure. A new prognostic method is developed in this paper using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFISs) and high-order particle filtering. The ANFIS is trained via machine historical failure data. The trained ANFIS and its modeling noise constitute an m th-order hidden Markov model to describe the fault propagation process. The high-order particle filter uses this Markov model to predict the time evolution of the fault indicator in the form of a probability density function. An online update scheme is developed to adapt the Markov model to various machine dynamics quickly. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated by using the testing data from a cracked carrier plate and a faulty bearing. Results show that it outperforms classical condition predictors.

13 September 2012 in IEEE Transactions on Instrumentation and Measurement
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Journal Article
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BOBenjamín E. Olivares
Benjamín E. Olivares
MMMatías A. Cerda Munoz
Matías A. Cerda Munoz
MOMarcos E. Orchard
Marcos E. Orchard
JSJorge F. Silva
Jorge F. Silva
This paper presents the implementation of a particle-filtering-based prognostic framework that allows estimating the state of health (SOH) and predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of energy storage devices, and more specifically lithium-ion batteries, while simultaneously detecting and isolating the effect of self-recharge phenomena within the life-cycle model. The proposed scheme and the statistical characterization of capacity regeneration phenomena are validated through experimental data from an accelerated battery degradation test and a set of ad hoc performance measures to quantify the precision and accuracy of the RUL estimates. In addition, a simplified degradation model is presented to analyze and compare the performance of the proposed approach in the case where the optimal solution (in the mean-square-error sense) can be found analytically.

12 October 2020 in IEEE Transactions on Instrumentation and Measurement
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Journal Article
Closed access
MRMilad Rezamand
Milad Rezamand
Mojtaba KordestaniMojtaba Kordestani
Mojtaba Kordestani
Rupp CarriveauRupp Carriveau
Rupp Carriveau
DTDavid Ting
David Ting
MOMarcos E. Orchard
Marcos E. Orchard
Mehrdad SaifMehrdad Saif
Mehrdad Saif
As wind energy is becoming a significant utility source, minimizing the Operation and Maintenance (O&M) expenses has raised a crucial issue to make wind energy competitive to fossil fuels. Wind Turbines (WTs) are subject to unexpected failures due to operational and environmental conditions, aging, etc. An accurate estimation of time to failures assures reliable power production and lower maintenance costs. In recent years, a notable amount of research has been undertaken to propose prognosis techniques that can be employed to forecast the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of wind farm assets. This paper provides a recent literature review on modeling developments for the remaining useful life prediction of critical WT components including physics-based, Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based, stochastic-based, and hybrid prognostics. In particular, the pros and cons of the prognosis models are investigated to assist researchers in selecting proper models for certain applications of WT RUL forecast. Our comprehensive review has revealed that hybrid methods are now the leading and most accurate tools for WT failure predictions over individual hybrid components. Strong candidates for future research include the consideration of variable operating environments, component interaction, physicsbased prognostics, and Bayesian application in the development of WT prognosis methods.