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Quantitatively projecting the impact of future climate change on the socio-economy and exploring its internal mechanism are of great practical significance to adapt to climate change and prevent climate risks. Based on the economy-climate (C-D-C) model, this paper introduces a yield impact of climate change (YICC) model that can quantitatively project the climate change impact. The model is based on the YICC as its core concept and uses the impact ratio of climate change (IRCC) indicator to assess the response of the economic system to climate change over a long period of time. The YICC is defined as the difference between the economic output under changing climate condition and that under assumed invariant climate condition. The IRCC not only reflects the sensitivity of economic output to climate change but also reveals the mechanism of the nonlinear interaction between climate change and non-climatic factors on the socio-economic system. Using the main grain-producing areas in China as a case study, we use the data of the ensemble average of 5 GCMs in CMIP6 to project the possible impact of climate change on grain production in the next 15–30 years under three future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5). The results indicate that the long-term climate change in the future will have a restraining effect on production in North region and enhance production in South region. From 2021 to 2035, climate change will reduce production by 0.60–2.09% in North region, and increase production by 1.80–9.01% in South region under three future scenarios. From 2021 to 2050, compared with the climate change impact in 2021–2035, the negative impact of climate change on production in North region will weaken, and the positive impact on production in South region will enhance with the increase in emission concentration. Among them, climate change will reduce grain output in North region by 0.52–1.99%, and increase output in South region by 1.35–9.56% under the three future scenarios. The combination of economic results and climate change research is expected to provide scientific support for further revealing the economic mechanism of climate change impacts.
Jieming Chou; Yuan Xu; Wenjie Dong; Weixing Zhao; Jiangnan Li; Yuanmeng Li. An Economy-Climate Model for Quantitatively Projecting the Impact of Future Climate Change and Its Application. Frontiers in Physics 2021, 9, 1 .
AMA StyleJieming Chou, Yuan Xu, Wenjie Dong, Weixing Zhao, Jiangnan Li, Yuanmeng Li. An Economy-Climate Model for Quantitatively Projecting the Impact of Future Climate Change and Its Application. Frontiers in Physics. 2021; 9 ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJieming Chou; Yuan Xu; Wenjie Dong; Weixing Zhao; Jiangnan Li; Yuanmeng Li. 2021. "An Economy-Climate Model for Quantitatively Projecting the Impact of Future Climate Change and Its Application." Frontiers in Physics 9, no. : 1.
As global warming issues become increasingly serious, grain yield and socioeconomic development have been seriously threatened. The key to ensuring grain yield is to recognize the risks caused by climate change. In this paper, the trends of temperature and precipitation over the next thirty years in China are analysed using CMIP6 under the SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5 and SSP 5–8.5 climate scenarios. The resilience indicators of grain yield are proposed for the first time. We find that the higher the emission concentration is, the greater the temperature increase will be and further northward the precipitation belt will move. Meanwhile, the resilience varies across different climate zones. The temperate monsoon climate zone has a stronger resilience to adapt to climate change compared to that of other areas. The resilience of the temperate continental and plateau alpine climate zones are moderate. However, the resilience of the subtropical and tropical monsoon climates zones are poor.
Jieming Chou; Mingyang Sun; Yuan Xu; Fan Yang; Jiangnan Li; Weixing Zhao. Resilience of Grain Yield in China Under Climate Change Scenarios. Frontiers in Environmental Science 2021, 9, 1 .
AMA StyleJieming Chou, Mingyang Sun, Yuan Xu, Fan Yang, Jiangnan Li, Weixing Zhao. Resilience of Grain Yield in China Under Climate Change Scenarios. Frontiers in Environmental Science. 2021; 9 ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJieming Chou; Mingyang Sun; Yuan Xu; Fan Yang; Jiangnan Li; Weixing Zhao. 2021. "Resilience of Grain Yield in China Under Climate Change Scenarios." Frontiers in Environmental Science 9, no. : 1.
Quantitatively assessing the spatial divergence of the sensitivity of crop yield to climate change is of great significance for reducing the climate change risk to food production. We use socio-economic and climatic data from 1981 to 2015 to examine how climate variability led to variation in yield, as simulated by an economy–climate model (C-D-C). The sensitivity of crop yield to the impact of climate change refers to the change in yield caused by changing climatic factors under the condition of constant non-climatic factors. An ‘output elasticity of comprehensive climate factor (CCF)’ approach determines the sensitivity, using the yields per hectare for grain, rice, wheat and maize in China’s main grain-producing areas as a case study. The results show that the CCF has a negative trend at a rate of −0.84/(10a) in the North region, while a positive trend of 0.79/(10a) is observed for the South region. Climate change promotes the ensemble increase in yields, and the contribution of agricultural labor force and total mechanical power to yields are greater, indicating that the yield in major grain-producing areas mainly depends on labor resources and the level of mechanization. However, the sensitivities to climate change of different crop yields to climate change present obvious regional differences: the sensitivity to climate change of the yield per hectare for maize in the North region was stronger than that in the South region. Therefore, the increase in the yield per hectare for maize in the North region due to the positive impacts of climate change was greater than that in the South region. In contrast, the sensitivity to climate change of the yield per hectare for rice in the South region was stronger than that in the North region. Furthermore, the sensitivity to climate change of maize per hectare yield was stronger than that of rice and wheat in the North region, and that of rice was the highest of the three crop yields in the South region. Finally, the economy–climate sensitivity zones of different crops were determined by the output elasticity of the CCF to help adapt to climate change and prevent food production risks.
Yuan Xu; Jieming Chou; Fan Yang; Mingyang Sun; Weixing Zhao; Jiangnan Li. Assessing the Sensitivity of Main Crop Yields to Climate Change Impacts in China. Atmosphere 2021, 12, 172 .
AMA StyleYuan Xu, Jieming Chou, Fan Yang, Mingyang Sun, Weixing Zhao, Jiangnan Li. Assessing the Sensitivity of Main Crop Yields to Climate Change Impacts in China. Atmosphere. 2021; 12 (2):172.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYuan Xu; Jieming Chou; Fan Yang; Mingyang Sun; Weixing Zhao; Jiangnan Li. 2021. "Assessing the Sensitivity of Main Crop Yields to Climate Change Impacts in China." Atmosphere 12, no. 2: 172.
With the increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events caused by global climate change, the risks to grain production have become more and more prominent. This paper uses the economic and climate data from 1981 to 2016 in China's main grain-producing areas as its source data. The economic-climate model is combined with the grey model GM(1,1) and the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) the second generation Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM2-MR) to further explore the impacts of climate change on China's grain production, and to estimated regional differences in China's grain production under different scenarios. The thresholds of grain production risk from climate change is mainly the value of the risks to the per capita grain production and to the grain yield per hectare under the SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5 and SSP5-RCP8.5 scenarios. Starting with historical data, we assess the safety and risk thresholds of China's grain production. The results show that the grain production in the northern region of China will gradually increase with the increase of emission intensity in different scenarios of climate change: SSP1-RCP26, SSP2-RCP45 and SSP5-RCP85, while that in the southern region is just the opposite in 2016–2050. The risks to grain production are mainly concentrated in southern region of China under the different emission scenarios, and the risks of grain production tends to decrease gradually over time. The northward shift of the grain production center further changes China's grain production and sales pattern from "sending grain from the South to the North" in to "sending grain from the North to the South". In order to understand the further climate situation from the perspective of economic, this study provides scientific support for the study of the main impacts of climate change on China's main grain-production areas.
Mingyang Sun; Jieming Chou; Yuan Xu; Fan Yang; Jiangnan Li. Study on the thresholds of grain production risk from climate change in China's main grain-producing areas. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C 2020, 116, 102837 .
AMA StyleMingyang Sun, Jieming Chou, Yuan Xu, Fan Yang, Jiangnan Li. Study on the thresholds of grain production risk from climate change in China's main grain-producing areas. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C. 2020; 116 ():102837.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMingyang Sun; Jieming Chou; Yuan Xu; Fan Yang; Jiangnan Li. 2020. "Study on the thresholds of grain production risk from climate change in China's main grain-producing areas." Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C 116, no. : 102837.
Climate change elements are important indicators for assessing the impact of climate change on the agricultural economy. A Comprehensive Climate Factor (CCF) that is composed of three indicators, growing season mean temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours indicators was developed. These indicators are aggregated into a single index that is a measure of the sensitivity of regionally integrated climate change. This paper uses this factor to explore the integrated climate variations over China's grain-producing areas in 1981–2015, divide the areas into climate change-sensitive zones, and quantitatively assess the impact intensity of CCF variation on grain yield. The results indicate that the growing season mean CCF basically increased in most grain-producing areas. The climatic tendency of the North plate is greater than that of the South plate, reaching 0.52 decade−1, and the South plate has a quasi-4a periodic variation. The patterns of the impact of climate change on grain yield show that the impact intensity of climate change gradually decreased in each decade (from 0.25 to 0.2) and was stronger in the southwest than in the northeast. This research can be applied to improve the accuracy of economic-climate model simulations and predictions and to provide a theoretical reference and scientific support for assessing the impact and risk of climate change.
Jieming Chou; Yuan Xu; Wenjie Dong; Tian Xian; Hong Xu; Zheng Wang. Comprehensive climate factor characteristics and quantitative analysis of their impacts on grain yields in China's grain-producing areas. Heliyon 2019, 5, e02846 .
AMA StyleJieming Chou, Yuan Xu, Wenjie Dong, Tian Xian, Hong Xu, Zheng Wang. Comprehensive climate factor characteristics and quantitative analysis of their impacts on grain yields in China's grain-producing areas. Heliyon. 2019; 5 (12):e02846.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJieming Chou; Yuan Xu; Wenjie Dong; Tian Xian; Hong Xu; Zheng Wang. 2019. "Comprehensive climate factor characteristics and quantitative analysis of their impacts on grain yields in China's grain-producing areas." Heliyon 5, no. 12: e02846.
Climate elements are important indicators of climate change in China’s main grain-producing areas during the April–September growth season and affect the growth and yield of crops. This paper combines grain concentration and geographical detector to divide the North and South regions of China’s main grain production. The linear trend and Morlet wavelet transform methods are used to analyse the characteristics of climate change based on observational climate data from April to September 1981–2015. The results show that the climate in the North region is warm and dry during the growth season, whereas the climate is warm and humid in the South region. The main periods of the change in temperature in the North and South regions are 3 years, and that in precipitation is 5 years, and that in sunshine hours is 3–4 years. Changes in the climate elements in various provinces show complex, varying and regional characteristics of cold-warm and dry-wet cycles. The changes in climate elements are significant and different climatic conditions and regions have various possible impacts on grain production in China during the growth season. For China’s agricultural-economy sustainable development and grain security, the study suggests that governments should place more emphasis on climatic element changes during the growth season and invest more money in disaster prevention and mitigation, especially in the main grain-producing areas.
Jieming Chou; Yuan Xu; Wenjie Dong; Tian Xian; Zheng Wang. Research on the variation characteristics of climatic elements from April to September in China’s main grain-producing areas. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 2019, 137, 3197 -3207.
AMA StyleJieming Chou, Yuan Xu, Wenjie Dong, Tian Xian, Zheng Wang. Research on the variation characteristics of climatic elements from April to September in China’s main grain-producing areas. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics. 2019; 137 (3-4):3197-3207.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJieming Chou; Yuan Xu; Wenjie Dong; Tian Xian; Zheng Wang. 2019. "Research on the variation characteristics of climatic elements from April to September in China’s main grain-producing areas." Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 137, no. 3-4: 3197-3207.