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I am a Senior Research Associate at University College London, researching aviation environmental impacts, policy assessment, airline competition, fleet turnover, transport system disruption and crisis response.
Theoretical analyses of the impact of airport capacity expansion must model or make assumptions about the effect of capacity on demand, airline competition, aircraft types, fares and other characteristics of a given airport. In this paper, we use empirical data on historical schedules, fares, delays and demand for the busiest 150 airports in 2015 to examine the typical impact of historical capacity expansions. We find significant diversity in outcomes, with over half the expanded airports either using less than their pre-expansion capacity or remaining constrained even at post-expansion capacity by 2016. Many of the expected impacts, such as reductions in typical aircraft size, either do not materialise or are dominated by other effects (for example, recessions; airlines beginning or ending operations at an airport; changes in regulation). Behaviour on expansion is affected by slot control regulations and whether the airport is initially capacity-constrained. In particular, slot-controlled airports typically add new destinations and carriers on expansion rather than making significant changes to existing schedules.
Lynnette Dray. An empirical analysis of airport capacity expansion. Journal of Air Transport Management 2020, 87, 101850 .
AMA StyleLynnette Dray. An empirical analysis of airport capacity expansion. Journal of Air Transport Management. 2020; 87 ():101850.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLynnette Dray. 2020. "An empirical analysis of airport capacity expansion." Journal of Air Transport Management 87, no. : 101850.
The inherently global, connected nature of aviation means that carbon leakage from aviation policy does not necessarily behave similarly to leakage from other sectors. We model carbon leakage from a range of aviation policy test cases applied to a specific country (the United Kingdom), motivated by a desire to reduce aviation CO2 faster than achievable by currently-planned global mitigation efforts in pursuit of a year-2050 net zero CO2 target. We find that there are two main components to leakage: one related to passenger behaviour, which tends to result in emissions reductions outside the policy area (negative leakage), and one related to airline behaviour, which tends to result in emissions increases outside the policy area (positive leakage). The overall leakage impact of a policy, and whether it is positive or negative, depends on the balance of these two components and the geographic scope used, and varies for different policy types. In our simulations, carbon pricing-type policies were associated with leakage of between +50 and −150% depending on what is assumed about scope and the values of uncertain parameters. Mandatory biofuel use was associated with positive leakage of around 0–40%, and changes in airport landing costs to promote more fuel-efficient aircraft were associated with positive leakage of 50–150%. Key policy insights
Lynnette Dray; Khan Doyme. Carbon leakage in aviation policy. Climate Policy 2019, 19, 1284 -1296.
AMA StyleLynnette Dray, Khan Doyme. Carbon leakage in aviation policy. Climate Policy. 2019; 19 (10):1284-1296.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLynnette Dray; Khan Doyme. 2019. "Carbon leakage in aviation policy." Climate Policy 19, no. 10: 1284-1296.
Policies aimed at influencing air transportation must operate in a complex, interacting global system of passengers, airlines, airports and other stakeholders. Tools which are capable of assessing policy outcomes in this situation are vital. Given the high uncertainty about future demand, costs and technology characteristics on policy-relevant timescales, such tools also need to allow the evaluation of outcomes from a wide range of plausible futures. This paper presents the validation study and initial baseline results from a comprehensive, open source update of the global AIM aviation systems model. We show that running the model from 2005 to 2015 using 2005 base year data reproduces well the observed demand levels and patterns of growth. Running from a 2015 base year, we project global demand in 2050 of between 13,800 billion and 46,000 billion revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), respectively 2.2 and 7.4 times year 2015 values, depending primarily on the future scenario for population, income and oil price assumed. Absent any radical change in aircraft technology, this would lead to global direct CO2 emissions from aviation of between 876 and 2,500 Mt, or 1.5 to 4.4 times the year-2015 level. This wide level of baseline variation may present a challenge for long-term aviation policy and its adaptability to different futures.
Lynnette M. Dray; Philip Krammer; Khan Doyme; Bojun Wang; Kinan Al Zayat; Aidan O'sullivan; Andreas W. Schäfer. AIM2015: Validation and initial results from an open-source aviation systems model. Transport Policy 2019, 79, 93 -102.
AMA StyleLynnette M. Dray, Philip Krammer, Khan Doyme, Bojun Wang, Kinan Al Zayat, Aidan O'sullivan, Andreas W. Schäfer. AIM2015: Validation and initial results from an open-source aviation systems model. Transport Policy. 2019; 79 ():93-102.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLynnette M. Dray; Philip Krammer; Khan Doyme; Bojun Wang; Kinan Al Zayat; Aidan O'sullivan; Andreas W. Schäfer. 2019. "AIM2015: Validation and initial results from an open-source aviation systems model." Transport Policy 79, no. : 93-102.
This paper demonstrates the ability of a model, which simulates competition between airlines in a domestic aviation market, to accurately reproduce real-world behavior. The Australian market was chosen as a test case as it is a geographically isolated region with significant demand and complexity, including one of the busiest routes in the world, where connecting international passengers do not significantly skew the market. The model is based on an n-player noncooperative game, in which each airline represents a player within the game. The primary assumption is that each airline attempts to maximize profits by adjusting the decision variables of airfares, flight frequency, and choice of aircraft on routes within its network. The approach works iteratively, allowing each airline to respond to the decisions made by other airlines during each successive optimization. The model is said to reach convergence when there is no significant change in any airline’s profit from one iteration to the next. Once this occurs, the predictions of each airline’s decision variables can be compared with real data. The model gives highly detailed predictions of airline specific airfares, flight frequencies on segments, passenger flows, and airline market share, which strongly correlate with observed values.
Khan Doyme; Lynnette Dray; Aidan O’Sullivan; Andreas Schäfer. Simulating Airline Behavior: Application for the Australian Domestic Market. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2019, 2673, 104 -112.
AMA StyleKhan Doyme, Lynnette Dray, Aidan O’Sullivan, Andreas Schäfer. Simulating Airline Behavior: Application for the Australian Domestic Market. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board. 2019; 2673 (2):104-112.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKhan Doyme; Lynnette Dray; Aidan O’Sullivan; Andreas Schäfer. 2019. "Simulating Airline Behavior: Application for the Australian Domestic Market." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2673, no. 2: 104-112.
Andreas W. Schäfer; Steven R. H. Barrett; Khan Doyme; Lynnette Dray; Albert R. Gnadt; Rod Self; Aidan O’Sullivan; Athanasios Synodinos; Antonio J. Torija. Technological, economic and environmental prospects of all-electric aircraft. Nature Energy 2018, 4, 160 -166.
AMA StyleAndreas W. Schäfer, Steven R. H. Barrett, Khan Doyme, Lynnette Dray, Albert R. Gnadt, Rod Self, Aidan O’Sullivan, Athanasios Synodinos, Antonio J. Torija. Technological, economic and environmental prospects of all-electric aircraft. Nature Energy. 2018; 4 (2):160-166.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAndreas W. Schäfer; Steven R. H. Barrett; Khan Doyme; Lynnette Dray; Albert R. Gnadt; Rod Self; Aidan O’Sullivan; Athanasios Synodinos; Antonio J. Torija. 2018. "Technological, economic and environmental prospects of all-electric aircraft." Nature Energy 4, no. 2: 160-166.
Studies assessing the impact of market-based environmental policies in aviation rely on various scenarios of airline cost pass-through, because there is little empirical evidence with respect to the impacts of airline costs on airfares. Instead, the costs effect has been indirectly measured by proxy variables such as distance, fuel price, and aircraft sizes. This paper provides empirical evidence of airline cost pass-through by developing an airfare model that explicitly captures airline operating costs. Using a feasible generalized two-stage least squares (FG2SLS) approach, we obtained coefficients of airline fuel costs per passenger, non-fuel costs per passenger, and non-fuel costs per flight modeling for seven world regions (20 region-pair markets). A comparison of the estimated cost pass-through elasticities conducted across regional markets suggests that airlines may respond to the cost increases differently, depending on the cost types and the markets they operate in. Based on the estimated coefficients, we systematically evaluate the potential impacts of introducing a carbon tax policy within two major regional markets with distinct cost pass-through elasticities.
Bojun Wang; Aidan O’Sullivan; Lynnette Dray; Andreas W. Schäfer. Modeling Airline Cost Pass-Through within Regional Aviation Markets. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2018, 2672, 146 -157.
AMA StyleBojun Wang, Aidan O’Sullivan, Lynnette Dray, Andreas W. Schäfer. Modeling Airline Cost Pass-Through within Regional Aviation Markets. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board. 2018; 2672 (23):146-157.
Chicago/Turabian StyleBojun Wang; Aidan O’Sullivan; Lynnette Dray; Andreas W. Schäfer. 2018. "Modeling Airline Cost Pass-Through within Regional Aviation Markets." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2672, no. 23: 146-157.
We analyze the costs of CO2 emissions mitigation measures available to aviation using a global aviation systems model. In that context, we discuss the relationship between mitigation potential and scenario characteristics, and how these interact with policy measures that increase the effective price of fuel, for example, ICAO’s CORSIA emissions offset scheme. We find that global fuel lifecycle CO2 emissions per revenue passenger km could be reduced by 1.9% to 3.0% per year on average by the use of a combination of cost-effective measures, for oil prices which reach $75 to $185 per barrel by 2050. Smaller additional emissions reductions, of the order of 0.1% per year, are possible if carbon prices of $50 to $150/tCO2 are assumed by 2050. These outcomes strongly depend on assumptions about biofuels, which account for about half of the reduction potential by 2050. Absolute reductions in emissions are limited by the relative lack of mitigation options for long-haul flights, coupled with strong demand growth.
Lynnette M. Dray; Andreas W. Schäfer; Kinan Al Zayat. The Global Potential for CO2 Emissions Reduction from Jet Engine Passenger Aircraft. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2018, 2672, 40 -51.
AMA StyleLynnette M. Dray, Andreas W. Schäfer, Kinan Al Zayat. The Global Potential for CO2 Emissions Reduction from Jet Engine Passenger Aircraft. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board. 2018; 2672 (23):40-51.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLynnette M. Dray; Andreas W. Schäfer; Kinan Al Zayat. 2018. "The Global Potential for CO2 Emissions Reduction from Jet Engine Passenger Aircraft." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2672, no. 23: 40-51.
An investigation was made into whether passenger delays and airline costs due to disruptive events affecting European airports could be reduced by a coordinated strategy of using alternative flights and ground transportation to help stranded passengers reach their final destination using airport collaborative decision-making concepts. Optimizing for airline cost for hypothetical disruptive events suggests that, for airport closures of up to 10 h, airlines could benefit from up to a 20% reduction in passenger delay-related costs. The mean passenger delay could be reduced by up to 70%, mainly via a reduction in very long delays.
Lynnette Dray; Isabelle LaPlace; Aude Marzuoli; Eric Feron; Antony Evans. Using Ground Transportation for Aviation System Disruption Alleviation. Journal of Air Transportation 2017, 25, 95 -107.
AMA StyleLynnette Dray, Isabelle LaPlace, Aude Marzuoli, Eric Feron, Antony Evans. Using Ground Transportation for Aviation System Disruption Alleviation. Journal of Air Transportation. 2017; 25 (3):95-107.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLynnette Dray; Isabelle LaPlace; Aude Marzuoli; Eric Feron; Antony Evans. 2017. "Using Ground Transportation for Aviation System Disruption Alleviation." Journal of Air Transportation 25, no. 3: 95-107.
In response to strong growth in air transportation CO2 emissions, governments and industry began to explore and implement mitigation measures and targets in the early 2000s. However, in the absence of rigorous analyses assessing the costs for mitigating CO2 emissions, these policies could be economically wasteful. Here we identify the cost-effectiveness of CO2 emission reductions from narrow-body aircraft, the workhorse of passenger air transportation. We find that in the US, a combination of fuel burn reduction strategies could reduce the 2012 level of life cycle CO2 emissions per passenger kilometre by around 2% per year to mid-century. These intensity reductions would occur at zero marginal costs for oil prices between US$50–100 per barrel. Even larger reductions are possible, but could impose extra costs and require the adoption of biomass-based synthetic fuels. The extent to which these intensity reductions will translate into absolute emissions reductions will depend on fleet growth. Owing to increases in aircraft fuel efficiency improvements, the CO2 intensity of the US aircraft fleet declined by nearly 5% per year between 1970 and 1980, and by 2% per year thereafter. Despite the past achievements, there continue to exist opportunities for further strong reductions at least to 2050. Data sources for historical trends: refs 12,13. Mitigation options are ranked in sequence of declining cost-effectiveness. Around one-quarter of the cumulative CO2 emissions of 4.0 billion tonnes that are based on fleet turnover and growth (1.5% per year) could be mitigated if employing all options. At least 75% of that potential could be reduced at zero marginal costs. In light of the anticipated fleet growth rate of 1.5% per year, life cycle CO2 emissions from the US narrow-body aircraft fleet could be reduced by about 10% between 2012 and 2050, even without the introduction of synthetic fuels from cellulosic biomass. Already a subscriber? Log in now or Register for online access.
Andreas W. Schäfer; Antony D. Evans; Tom G. Reynolds; Lynnette Dray. Costs of mitigating CO2 emissions from passenger aircraft. Nature Climate Change 2015, 6, 412 -417.
AMA StyleAndreas W. Schäfer, Antony D. Evans, Tom G. Reynolds, Lynnette Dray. Costs of mitigating CO2 emissions from passenger aircraft. Nature Climate Change. 2015; 6 (4):412-417.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAndreas W. Schäfer; Antony D. Evans; Tom G. Reynolds; Lynnette Dray. 2015. "Costs of mitigating CO2 emissions from passenger aircraft." Nature Climate Change 6, no. 4: 412-417.
Carbon-fibre-reinforced polymers (CFRP) have been developed by the aviation industry to reduce aircraft fuel burn and emissions of greenhouse gases. This study presents a life cycle assessment (LCA) of an all-composite airplane, based on a Boeing 787 Dreamliner. The global transition of aircraft to those of composite architecture is estimated to contribute 20–25 % of industry CO2 reduction targets. A secondary stage of the cradle-to-grave analysis expands the study from an individual aircraft to the global fleet. An LCA was undertaken utilising SimaPro 7.2 in combination with Ecoinvent. Eco-indicator 99 (E) V2.05 Europe EI 99 E/E was the chosen method to calculate the environmental impact of the inventory data. The previously developed aviation integrated model was utilised to construct a scenario analysis of the introduction of composite aircraft against a baseline projection, through to 2050, to model CO2 emissions due to their particular relevance in the aviation sector. The analysis demonstrated CFRP structure results in a reduced single score environmental impact, despite the higher environmental impact in the manufacturing phase, due to the increased fossil fuel use. Of particular importance is that CFRP scenario quickly achieved a reduction in CO2 and NOx atmospheric emissions over its lifetime, due to the reduced fuel consumption. The modelled fleet-wide CO2 reduction of 14–15 % is less than the quoted emission savings of an individual aircraft (20 %) because of the limited fleet penetration by 2050 and the increased demand for air travel due to lower operating costs. The introduction of aircraft based on composite material architecture has significant environmental benefits over their lifetime compared to conventional aluminium-based architecture, particularly with regards to CO2 and NOx a result of reduced fuel burn. The constructed scenario analyses the interactions of technology and the markets they are applied in, expanding on the LCA, in this case, an observed fleet-wide reduction of CO2 emission of 14–15 % compared to an individual aircraft of 20 %.
Andrew J. Timmis; Alma Hodzic; Lenny Koh; Michael Bonner; Constantinos Soutis; Andreas W. Schäfer; Lynnette Dray. Environmental impact assessment of aviation emission reduction through the implementation of composite materials. The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment 2014, 20, 233 -243.
AMA StyleAndrew J. Timmis, Alma Hodzic, Lenny Koh, Michael Bonner, Constantinos Soutis, Andreas W. Schäfer, Lynnette Dray. Environmental impact assessment of aviation emission reduction through the implementation of composite materials. The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment. 2014; 20 (2):233-243.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAndrew J. Timmis; Alma Hodzic; Lenny Koh; Michael Bonner; Constantinos Soutis; Andreas W. Schäfer; Lynnette Dray. 2014. "Environmental impact assessment of aviation emission reduction through the implementation of composite materials." The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment 20, no. 2: 233-243.
Lynnette Dray. Time constants in aviation infrastructure. Transport Policy 2014, 34, 29 -35.
AMA StyleLynnette Dray. Time constants in aviation infrastructure. Transport Policy. 2014; 34 ():29-35.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLynnette Dray. 2014. "Time constants in aviation infrastructure." Transport Policy 34, no. : 29-35.
Stimulating fleet renewal and attaching a price to carbon dioxide emissions have both been suggested as ways of reducing aviation׳s environmental impact. One potential route for emissions reduction is to combine these policy options, by applying a carbon tax which is used to subsidize fleet renewal. Such a policy would have impacts on many aspects of the aviation system, including demand, fleet composition, traffic delays, and airfares. Therefore, its impacts need to be considered holistically, taking into account likely interaction and feedback effects. In this paper, we apply a model of the global aviation system, the Aviation Integrated Model (AIM), to assess the demand and emissions response from passenger aviation following the application of such an aviation sector policy. We find that by 2050, aviation lifecycle carbon dioxide emissions may be reduced by up to 34% compared to the no-policy case for a policy aimed at retiring aircraft over 20 years old.
Lynnette Dray; Antony Evans; Tom Reynolds; Andreas W. Schäfer; María Vera-Morales; Wolfram Bosbach. Airline fleet replacement funded by a carbon tax: An integrated assessment. Transport Policy 2014, 34, 75 -84.
AMA StyleLynnette Dray, Antony Evans, Tom Reynolds, Andreas W. Schäfer, María Vera-Morales, Wolfram Bosbach. Airline fleet replacement funded by a carbon tax: An integrated assessment. Transport Policy. 2014; 34 ():75-84.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLynnette Dray; Antony Evans; Tom Reynolds; Andreas W. Schäfer; María Vera-Morales; Wolfram Bosbach. 2014. "Airline fleet replacement funded by a carbon tax: An integrated assessment." Transport Policy 34, no. : 75-84.
We model global aviation biofuel uptake under a future emissions trading policy, and compare aviation CO2 emission reductions with climate impact reductions (CO2 and non-CO2). We find that climate impacts in terms of global warming potential are less favourable than CO2 climate impacts for biofuel use, dependent on the time horizon of the chosen output climate metric. Results indicate that widespread use of aviation biofuel may lead to a scenario in which aviation growth is accompanied by flat or decreasing carbon emissions but an increasing total climate impact
Philip Krammer; Lynnette Dray; Marcus Köhler. Climate-neutrality versus carbon-neutrality for aviation biofuel policy. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 2013, 23, 64 -72.
AMA StylePhilip Krammer, Lynnette Dray, Marcus Köhler. Climate-neutrality versus carbon-neutrality for aviation biofuel policy. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment. 2013; 23 ():64-72.
Chicago/Turabian StylePhilip Krammer; Lynnette Dray; Marcus Köhler. 2013. "Climate-neutrality versus carbon-neutrality for aviation biofuel policy." Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 23, no. : 64-72.
Many options for mitigating aviation's environmental impact rely on introduction of new aircraft technology, retrofits or early retirement of older aircraft. Using a global fleet database, we analyse aircraft lifecycles and their interaction with fuel price, demand, policy and economic cycles. Simple relationships, including aircraft retirement curves, are estimated to allow insight into the effectiveness and timescales of emissions reductions from these measures. We find variations in retirement age and retrofits have historically had little effect on global emissions. The design and purchasing stages offer a more promising target, subject to long timescales and demand growth rates.
Lynnette Dray. An analysis of the impact of aircraft lifecycles on aviation emissions mitigation policies. Journal of Air Transport Management 2013, 28, 62 -69.
AMA StyleLynnette Dray. An analysis of the impact of aircraft lifecycles on aviation emissions mitigation policies. Journal of Air Transport Management. 2013; 28 ():62-69.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLynnette Dray. 2013. "An analysis of the impact of aircraft lifecycles on aviation emissions mitigation policies." Journal of Air Transport Management 28, no. : 62-69.
Using a new data set describing the techno-economic characteristics of current and projected future transport technologies and a synthesis of existing transport demand models, lifecycle CO(2) emissions from 27 EU countries (EU27) were estimated in the absence and presence of new policy interventions to 2050. Future CO(2) emissions are strongly dependent on geographical scope and economic growth assumptions, and to a lesser extent on uncertainties in technology characteristics, but in the absence of new policy intervention they continue to rise from present-day values in all three scenarios examined. Consequently, EU27 emissions goals, which may require a 60% decrease in transport sector greenhouse gas emissions from year-1990 values by 2050, will be difficult to meet. This is even the case under widespread adoption of the most promising technologies for all modes, due primarily to limitations in biofuel production capacity and a lack of technologies that would drastically reduce CO(2) emissions from heavy trucks and intercontinental aviation.
Lynnette M. Dray; Andreas Schäfer; Moshe E. Ben-Akiva. Technology Limits for Reducing EU Transport Sector CO2Emissions. Environmental Science & Technology 2012, 46, 4734 -4741.
AMA StyleLynnette M. Dray, Andreas Schäfer, Moshe E. Ben-Akiva. Technology Limits for Reducing EU Transport Sector CO2Emissions. Environmental Science & Technology. 2012; 46 (9):4734-4741.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLynnette M. Dray; Andreas Schäfer; Moshe E. Ben-Akiva. 2012. "Technology Limits for Reducing EU Transport Sector CO2Emissions." Environmental Science & Technology 46, no. 9: 4734-4741.
Global aviation is a complex system, with many interactions between individual subsystems on different timescales. For example, setting carbon dioxide emissions standards for new aircraft models could reduce airline fuel use, leading to lower fuel costs. However, under competition this could lead to airlines lowering ticket prices, leading to increased passenger demand, which in turn may partially offset the emissions reduction potential of the new technology. Integrated assessment modeling seeks to better understand these interactions, and their impacts, by explicitly modeling aviation subsystems and the feedback between them. In this chapter, we discuss the principles behind aviation integrated assessment modeling, the types of systems that can be included, typical modeling strategies in each area, and the interactions between them. We survey existing models that look at aviation policy assessment in an integrated way and discuss the future prospects for integrated modeling as available computing power increases.
Lynnette M. Dray; Antony D. Evans. Integrated Assessment Modeling. Encyclopedia of Aerospace Engineering 2010, 1 -11.
AMA StyleLynnette M. Dray, Antony D. Evans. Integrated Assessment Modeling. Encyclopedia of Aerospace Engineering. 2010; ():1-11.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLynnette M. Dray; Antony D. Evans. 2010. "Integrated Assessment Modeling." Encyclopedia of Aerospace Engineering , no. : 1-11.
Lynnette Dray; Antony Evans; Andreas Schäfer. The Impact of Economic Mitigation Measures on Global Aircraft Emissions. 10th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations (ATIO) Conference 2010, 1 .
AMA StyleLynnette Dray, Antony Evans, Andreas Schäfer. The Impact of Economic Mitigation Measures on Global Aircraft Emissions. 10th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations (ATIO) Conference. 2010; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLynnette Dray; Antony Evans; Andreas Schäfer. 2010. "The Impact of Economic Mitigation Measures on Global Aircraft Emissions." 10th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations (ATIO) Conference , no. : 1.
This paper investigates the interaction between economic, technological, and operational measures intended to reduce air transport-related emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2). In particular, the introduction of aviation to the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) in 2012 may prompt increased uptake of presently available options for emission reduction (e.g., retrofitting winglets, expanding maintenance programs) by airlines operating in Europe. Carbon prices may also determine the use of options currently under development [e.g., open-rotor engines, second-generation biofuels, and improved air traffic management (ATM)]. The results of a several studies analyzing airline costs and emission reductions that are possible from different mitigation options are applied to a systems model of European aviation. With a set of nine scenarios (three internally consistent projections for future population, gross domestic product, oil and carbon prices, each run with three policy cases), technology uptake and the resulting effect on fuel life cycle CO2 emissions with and without an ETS are analyzed. Some options are rapidly taken up under all scenarios (e.g., improved ATM), others are taken up more slowly by specific aircraft classes depending on the scenario (e.g., biofuels), and others have negligible impact in the cases studied. High uptake of one mitigation option may also reduce the uptake of other options. European aviation fuel life cycle emissions could be reduced below 2005 levels before 2050 if cellulosic biomass fuels are made available by 2020. However, the land use requirements in this scenario may limit its practicality at currently projected cellulosic biomass yields.
Lynnette Dray; Antony Evans; Tom Reynolds; Andreas Schäfer. Mitigation of Aviation Emissions of Carbon Dioxide. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2010, 2177, 17 -26.
AMA StyleLynnette Dray, Antony Evans, Tom Reynolds, Andreas Schäfer. Mitigation of Aviation Emissions of Carbon Dioxide. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board. 2010; 2177 (1):17-26.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLynnette Dray; Antony Evans; Tom Reynolds; Andreas Schäfer. 2010. "Mitigation of Aviation Emissions of Carbon Dioxide." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2177, no. 1: 17-26.
Lynnette Dray; Antony Evans; Tom Reynolds; Andreas Schäfer. A Comparison of Aviation Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation Policies for Europe. 9th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations Conference (ATIO) 2009, 1 .
AMA StyleLynnette Dray, Antony Evans, Tom Reynolds, Andreas Schäfer. A Comparison of Aviation Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation Policies for Europe. 9th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations Conference (ATIO). 2009; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLynnette Dray; Antony Evans; Tom Reynolds; Andreas Schäfer. 2009. "A Comparison of Aviation Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation Policies for Europe." 9th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations Conference (ATIO) , no. : 1.
Lynnette Dray; Antony Evans; Tom Reynolds; Andreas Schafer; Maria Vera-Morales. Network and Environmental Impacts of Passenger and Airline Response to Cost and Delay. The 26th Congress of ICAS and 8th AIAA ATIO 2008, 1 .
AMA StyleLynnette Dray, Antony Evans, Tom Reynolds, Andreas Schafer, Maria Vera-Morales. Network and Environmental Impacts of Passenger and Airline Response to Cost and Delay. The 26th Congress of ICAS and 8th AIAA ATIO. 2008; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLynnette Dray; Antony Evans; Tom Reynolds; Andreas Schafer; Maria Vera-Morales. 2008. "Network and Environmental Impacts of Passenger and Airline Response to Cost and Delay." The 26th Congress of ICAS and 8th AIAA ATIO , no. : 1.