Purpose: We studied BCR-ABL1 transcript levels in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia in chronic phase (CML-CP) at 3, 6, and 12 months after starting imatinib to identify molecular milestones that would predict for overall survival (OS) and other outcomes more reliably than serial marrow cytogenetics. Patients and Methods: We analyzed 282 patients with CML-CP who received imatinib 400 mg/d as first-line therapy followed by dasatinib or nilotinib if treatment with imatinib failed. We used a receiver operating characteristic curve to identify the cutoffs in transcript levels at 3, 6, and 12 months that would best predict patient outcome. We validated our findings in an independent cohort of 95 patients treated elsewhere. Results: Patients with transcript levels of more than 9.84% (n = 68) at 3 months had significantly lower 8-year probabilities of OS (56.9% v 93.3%; P < .001), progression-free survival, cumulative incidence of complete cytogenetic response, and complete molecular response than those with higher transcript levels. Similarly, transcript levels of more than 1.67% (n = 87) at 6 months and more than 0.53% (n = 93) at 12 months identified high-risk patients. However, transcript levels at 3 months were the most strongly predictive for the various outcomes. When we compared OS for the groups defined molecularly at 6 and 12 months with the usual cytogenetic milestones, categorization by transcript numbers was the only independent predictor for OS (relative risk, 0.207; P < .001 and relative risk, 0.158; P < .001, respectively). Conclusion: A single measurement of BCR-ABL1 transcripts performed at 3 months is the best way to identify patients destined to fare poorly, thereby allowing early clinical intervention.

Key Points: Imatinib improves outcomes for adults with Ph+ ALL at least in part by facilitating allogeneic stem cell transplant. Allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant is not dispensible in Ph+ ALL in the imatinib era.

The molecular basis of the progression of chronic myeloid leukaemia from the chronic stage to the acute phase is poorly understood. Now, work in mouse models of chronic myeloid leukaemia shows that this progression is controlled by the cell fate regulator Musashi2, which in turn regulates Numb, Notch and p53 to block cellular differentiation. Musashi2 expression can be increased by aberrant transcription factors found in leukaemia and is observed during cancer progression in human patients with leukaemia, where it is associated with poorer prognosis. This raises the possibility that modulating Musashi–Numb associated signalling may serve as a new approach to therapies against this disease. Chronic myelogenous leukaemia (CML) can progress from a chronic to an acute phase. These authors show in mouse models that leukaemia progression is controlled by the cell-fate regulator Musashi2, which in turn regulates Numb, Notch and p53 to block cellular differentiation. Musashi2 expression can be increased by aberrant transcription factors found in leukaemia, is observed during cancer progression in human CML patients and is associated with poorer prognosis. Chronic myelogenous leukaemia (CML) can progress from a slow growing chronic phase to an aggressive blast crisis phase1, but the molecular basis of this transition remains poorly understood. Here we have used mouse models of CML2,3 to show that disease progression is regulated by the Musashi–Numb signalling axis4,5. Specifically, we find that the chronic phase is marked by high levels of Numb expression whereas the blast crisis phase has low levels of Numb expression, and that ectopic expression of Numb promotes differentiation and impairs advanced-phase disease in vivo. As a possible explanation for the decreased levels of Numb in the blast crisis phase, we show that NUP98–HOXA9, an oncogene associated with blast crisis CML6,7, can trigger expression of the RNA-binding protein Musashi2 (Msi2), which in turn represses Numb. Notably, loss of Msi2 restores Numb expression and significantly impairs the development and propagation of blast crisis CML in vitro and in vivo. Finally we show that Msi2 expression is not only highly upregulated during human CML progression but is also an early indicator of poorer prognosis. These data show that the Musashi–Numb pathway can control the differentiation of CML cells, and raise the possibility that targeting this pathway may provide a new strategy for the therapy of aggressive leukaemias.

We studied the relation between adherence to imatinib measured with microelectronic monitoring systems and the probabilities of losing a complete cytogenetic response (CCyR) and of imatinib failure in 87 CCyR chronic myeloid leukemia patients receiving long-term therapy. We included in our analysis the most relevant prognostic factors described to date. On multivariate analysis, the adherence rate and having failed to achieve a major molecular response were the only independent predictors for loss of CCyR and discontinuation of imatinib therapy. The 23 patients with an adherence rate less than or equal to 85% had a higher probability of losing their CCyR at 2 years (26.8% vs 1.5%, P = .0002) and a lower probability of remaining on imatinib (64.5% vs 90.6%, P = .006) than the 64 patients with an adherence rate more than 85%. In summary, we have shown that poor adherence is the principal factor contributing to the loss of cytogenetic responses and treatment failure in patients on long-term therapy.