The NEMS GFS Aerosol Component Version 2.0 (NGACv2) for global multispecies aerosol forecast has been developed at the National Centers of Environment Prediction (NCEP) in collaboration with the NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR), the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), and the University at Albany, State University of New York (SUNYA). This paper describes the continuous development of the NGAC system at NCEP after the initial global dust-only forecast implementation (NGAC version 1.0, NGACv1). With NGACv2, additional sea salt, sulfate, organic carbon, and black carbon aerosol species were included. The smoke emissions are from the NESDIS STAR's Global Biomass Burning Product (GBBEPx), blended from the global biomass burning emission product from a constellation of geostationary satellites (GBBEP-Geo) and GSFC's Quick Fire Emission Data Version 2 from a polar-orbiting sensor (QFED2). This implementation advanced the global aerosol forecast capability and made a step forward toward developing a global aerosol data assimilation system. The aerosol products from this system have been used by many applications such as for regional air quality model lateral boundary conditions, satellite sea surface temperature (SST) physical retrievals, and the global solar insolation estimation. Positive impacts have been seen in these applications.

For a variational data assimilation (DA) system that assimilates radiance observations, the simulated brightness temperature (BT) at the top of the atmosphere and the corresponding Jacobians carried out by the radiance observation operator are needed information. Previous studies reported that the incorporation of aerosol information into the radiance observation operator leads to cooler simulated infrared (IR) BTs and warmer temperature analyses at low levels of the atmosphere. However, the role of the aerosol-affected Jacobians in the DA system, which not only affect the determination of analysis increments but also influence the quality control and the bias correction algorithm, is yet to be investigated. This study examines the aerosol impacts on the sensitivity of IR radiance simulations, Jacobians, and the analysis increments by conducting two experiments: (i) sensitivity tests to assess how the different aspects of the aerosol profiles (i.e., mass loading, peak aerosol level, aerosol thickness layer, and bin partition) affect the simulated BT and the Jacobians from the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM), which is the radiance observation operator in the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis system; (ii) single IR observation experiments using GSI to investigate how the aerosol-affected atmospheric Jacobians influence the analysis increment. The results show that dust aerosols produce the strongest cooling to simulated BTs under similar aerosol optical depths; simulated BTs and Jacobians are most sensitive to the loading and peak altitude of the aerosol layer; simulated BTs become more sensitive to the temperature of the aerosol layer; aerosol-induced differences in atmospheric Jacobians lead to considerable changes to temperature and moisture increments. These results provide a better understanding of the aerosol impacts on each component involved in radiance DA, which can provide guidance for assimilating aerosol-affected IR observations.

Aerosol radiative effects have been studied extensively by climate and weather research communities. However, aerosol impacts on radiance in the context of data assimilation (DA) have received little research attention. In this study, we investigated the aerosol impacts on the assimilation of satellite radiances by incorporating time-varying three-dimensional aerosol distributions into the radiance observation operator. A series of DA experiments was conducted for August 2017. We assessed the aerosol impacts on the simulated brightness temperatures (BTs), bias correction and quality control (QC) algorithms for the assimilated infrared sensors, and analyzed temperature fields. We found that taking the aerosols into account reduces simulated BT in thermal window channels (8 to 13 μm) by up to 4 K over dust-dominant regions. The cooler simulated BTs result in more positive first-guess departures, produce more negative biases, and alter the QC checks about 20%/40% of total/assimilated observations at the wavelength of 10.39 μm. As a result, assimilating aerosol-affected BTs produces a warmer analyzed lower atmosphere and sea surface temperature which have better agreement with measurements over the trans-Atlantic region.

The Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM), a sensor-based radiative transfer model, has been used within the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system for directly assimilating radiances from infrared and microwave sensors. We conducted numerical experiments to illustrate how including aerosol radiative effects in CRTM calculations changes the GSI analysis. Compared to the default aerosol-blind calculations, the aerosol influences reduced simulated brightness temperature (BT) in thermal window channels, particularly over dust-dominant regions. A case study is presented, which illustrates how failing to correct for aerosol transmittance effects leads to errors in meteorological analyses that assimilate radiances from satellite infrared sensors. In particular, the case study shows that assimilating aerosol-affected BTs significantly affects analyzed temperatures in the lower atmosphere across several regions of the globe. Consequently, a fully cycled aerosol-aware experiment improves 1–5 d forecasts of wind, temperature, and geopotential height in the tropical troposphere and Northern Hemisphere stratosphere. Whilst both GSI and CRTM are well documented with online user guides, tutorials, and code repositories, this article is intended to provide a joined-up documentation for aerosol absorption and scattering calculations in the CRTM and GSI. It also provides guidance for prospective users of the CRTM aerosol option and GSI aerosol-aware radiance assimilation. Scientific aspects of aerosol-affected BT in atmospheric data assimilation are briefly discussed.

This study incorporates aerosol effects into satellite radiance calculations within the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) to investigate its impact on the analyses and forecasts of African easterly waves (AEWs). Analysis fields from the aerosol-aware assimilation experiment were compared to an aerosol-blind control during August 2017. The results showed that the aerosol-aware assimilation warmed the Saharan boundary layer, accelerated the African easterly jet, and modified the time-averaged AEWs by enhancing the northern track and reducing the southern track. The changes to the tracks are qualitatively consistent with arguments of baroclinic and barotropic instability. During the time period, we also examined two AEWs that developed hurricanes Gert and Harvey over the Atlantic but were structurally different over Africa; the AEW for Gert consisted of a southern vortex, while the AEW for Harvey consisted of a northern and southern vortex. Analysis differences of the cases showed stronger vorticity changes for the AEW that developed Harvey, which we attribute to the aerosol-aware assimilation capturing the radiative effects of a large-scale Saharan dust plume interacting with the northern vortex of the wave. Subsequent forecasts for the AEW cases using the Global Forecast System (GFS, v14) showed that the aerosol-aware assimilation reduced errors in the downstream vorticity structure for the AEW that developed Harvey; neutral improvement was found for the AEW that developed Gert. Thus, aerosol-affected radiances in the assimilation system have the ability to account for dust radiative effects on the analyzed AEWs, which, in turn, can improve the forecasting of AEWs downstream.

In this study, we describe the first prototype version of global aerosol reanalysis at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the prototype NOAA Aerosol Reanalysis version 1.0 (pNARA v1.0) that was produced for the year 2016. In pNARA v1.0, the forecast model is an early version of the operational Global Ensemble Forecast System-Aerosols (GEFS-Aerosols) model. The three-dimensional ensemble-variational (3D-EnVar) data assimilation (DA) system configuration is built using elements of the Joint Effort for Data Assimilation Integration (JEDI) framework being developed at the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA). The Neural Network Retrievals (NNR) of aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments are assimilated to provide reanalysis of aerosol mass mixing ratios. We evaluate pNARA v1.0 against a wide variety of Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) observations, against the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications 2 (MERRA-2; Gelaro et al., 2017; Randles et al., 2017; Buchard et al., 2017) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service Reanalysis (CAMSRA; Inness et al., 2019), and against measurements of surface concentrations of particulate matter 2.5 (PM_2.5) and aerosol species. Overall, the 3D-EnVar DA system significantly improves AOD simulations compared with observations, but the assimilation has limited impact on chemical composition and size distributions of aerosols. We also identify deficiencies in the model's representations of aerosol chemistry and their optical properties elucidated from evaluation of pNARA v1.0 against AERONET observations. A comparison of seasonal profiles of aerosol species from pNARA v1.0 with the other two reanalyses exposes significant differences among datasets. These differences reflect uncertainties in simulating aerosols in general.