Only a minority of studies addressing the association between immune-related adverse events (IrAE) and outcome considered the immortal time bias, with conflicting results. PubMed, Embase, Web of Sc...

To assess prognostic value of pre-therapy carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and cytokeratin-19 fragments (CYFRA 21-1) blood levels in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients treated with immune-checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) and their early change as predictor of benefit. This is a retrospective cohort study including patients with stage IIIB–IV NSCLC who received anti PD-1/PD-L1 in first or advanced lines of therapy in two institutions. A control cohort of patients treated only with chemotherapy has been enrolled as well. A total of 133 patients treated with nivolumab or atezolizumab were included in the test set, 74 treated with pembrolizumab first line in the validation set and 89 in the chemotherapy only cohort. CYFRA 21-1 >8 ng/mL was correlated with overall survival (OS) in the test set, validation set and in univariate and multivariate analysis (pooled cohort hazard ratio (HR) 1.90, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.24–2.93, p 0.003). Early 20% reduction after the third cycle was correlated with OS for CEA (HR 0.12; 95% CI 0.04–0.33; p < 0.001), and for CYFRA 21-1 (HR 0.19; 95% CI 0.07–0.55; p 0.002) CYFRA 21-1 pre-therapy assessment provides clinicians with relevant prognostic information about patients treated with ICI. CEA and CYFRA 21-1 repeated measures could be useful as an early marker of benefit.

The densities of CD3+ and CD8+ tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs), combined with tumor–node–metastasis (TNM) staging, have prognostic value for patients with nonmetastatic colorectal cancer. We compared the prognostic value of CD3+ and FoxP3+ TILs at the invasive front, TNM classifiers, and microsatellite (MS) status in a trial set of patients with stage II and III colorectal cancer (n = 413), by recursive partitioning with a classification and regression tree (CART). Significant prognostic factors and interactions were reassessed by logistic regression and Cox proportional-hazards modeling in the trial and a validation set (n = 215) of patients with stage II colorectal cancer. In the trial set, CART indicated that TIL numbers were of value only in predicting recurrence risk for stage II cancers, where low densities of FoxP3+ TILs ranked first and low densities of CD3+ TILs further stratifying risk. Multivariate analysis showed that TILs interacted with tumor stage (FoxP3+, P = 0.06; CD3+, P = 0.02) and MS instability (MSI; FoxP3+; P = 0.02). In stage II MS-stable cancers, concomitant low densities of both FoxP3+ and CD3+ TILs identified patients with the highest progression risk in the trial [HR 7.24; 95% confidence interval (CI), 3.41–15.4; P < 0.001] and the validation (HR 15.16; 95% CI, 3.43–66.9; P < 0.001) sets. FoxP3+ and CD3+ TIL load in colorectal cancer was more informative than other prognostic factors before the cancer progressed to lymph nodes. This prognostic information about TILs, including FoxP3+ cells, suggests that randomized controlled trials might be refined to include interactions between TNM status, molecular classifiers, and postsurgical treatments.