Understanding trends or changes in biomass and biodiversity around conservation areas in Africa is important and has economic and societal impacts on the surrounding communities. Gorongosa National Park, Mozambique was established under unique conditions due to its complex history. In this study, we used a time-series of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to explore seasonal trends in biomass between 2000 and 2016. In addition, vegetation directional persistence was created. This product is derived from the seasonal NDVI time series-based analysis and represents the accumulation of directional change in NDVI relative to a fixed benchmark (2000–2004). Trends in precipitation from Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) was explored from 2000–2016. Different vegetation covers are also considered across various landscapes, including a comparison between the Lower Gorongosa (savanna), Mount Gorongosa (rainforest), and surrounding buffer zones. Important findings include a decline in precipitation over the time of study, which most likely drives the observed decrease in NDVI. In terms of vegetation persistence, Lower Gorongosa had stronger positive trends than the buffer zone, and Mount Gorongosa had higher negative persistence overall. Directional persistence also varied by vegetation type. These are valuable findings for park managers and conservationists across the world.

Global change, particularly climate change, poses a risk of altering vegetation composition and health. The consequences manifest throughout Earth’s system as a change in ecosystem services and socioecological stability. It is therefore critical that vegetation dynamics are monitored to establish baseline conditions and detect shifts. Africa is at high risk of environmental change, yet evaluation of the link between climate and vegetation is still needed for some regions. This work expands on more frequent local and multinational scale studies of vegetation trends by quantifying directional persistence (DP) at a national scale for Ethiopia, based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) between 2000 and 2016. The DP metric determines cumulative change in vegetation greenness and has been applied to studies of ecological stability and health. Secondary analysis utilizing panel regression methodologies is carried out to measure the effect of climate on NDVI. Models are developed to consider spatial dependence by including fixed effects and spatial weights. Results indicate widespread cumulative declines in NDVI, with the greatest change during the dry season and concentrated in northern Ethiopia. Regression analyses suggest significant control from climatic variables. However, temperature has a larger effect on NDVI, which contrasts with findings of some previous studies.

We present a global analysis of the changing face of vegetation persistence in savanna ecosystems by boreal seasons. We utilized nearly 30 years of monthly normalized difference vegetation index data in an innovative time-series approach and developed associated statistical significance tests, making the application of continuous vegetation metrics both more rigorous and more useful to research. We found that 8,000,000–11,000,000 km² of savanna have experienced significant vegetation decline during each season, while 20,000,000–23,000,000 km² have experienced an increase in vegetation persistence during each season, relative to the baseline period (1982–1985). In addition, with the exception of the March–April–May season, which is mixed, the pattern of significant vegetation persistence in the Northern Hemisphere is almost exclusively positive, while it is negative in the Southern Hemisphere. This finding highlights the increasing vulnerability of the Southern Hemisphere savanna landscapes; either resulting from changing precipitation regimes (e.g., southern Africa) or agricultural pressures and conversions (e.g., South America).

Terrestrial LiDAR (light detection and ranging) has been used to quantify micro-topographic changes using high-density 3D point clouds in which extracting the ground surface is susceptible to off-terrain (OT) points. Various filtering algorithms are available in classifying ground and OT points, but additional research is needed to choose and implement a suitable algorithm for a given surface. This paper assesses the performance of three filtering algorithms in classifying terrestrial LiDAR point clouds: a cloth simulation filter (CSF), a modified slope-based filter (MSBF), and a random forest (RF) classifier, based on a typical use-case in quantifying soil erosion and surface denudation. A hillslope plot was scanned before and after removing vegetation to generate a test dataset of ground and OT points. Each algorithm was then tested against this dataset with various parameters/settings to obtain the highest performance. CSF produced the best classification with a Kappa value of 0.86, but its performance is highly influenced by the ‘time-step’ parameter. MSBF had the highest precision of 0.94 for ground point classification but the highest Kappa value of only 0.62. RF produced balanced classifications with the highest Kappa value of 0.75. This work provides valuable information in optimizing the parameters of the filtering algorithms to improve their performance in detecting micro-topographic changes.

The savannas of Southern Africa are an important dryland ecosystem as they cover up to 54% of the landscape and support a rich variety of biodiversity. This paper evaluates landscape change in savanna vegetation along Chobe Riverfront within Chobe National Park Botswana, from 1982 to 2011 to understand what change may be occurring in land cover. Classifying land cover in savanna environments is challenging because the vegetation spectral signatures are similar across distinct vegetation covers. With vegetation species and even structural groups having similar signatures in multispectral imagery difficulties exist in making discrete classifications in such landscapes. To address this issue, a Random Forest classification algorithm was applied to predict land-cover classes. Additionally, time series vegetation indices were used to support the findings of the discrete land cover classification. Results indicate that a landscape level vegetation shift has occurred across the Chobe Riverfront, with results highlighting a shift in land cover towards more woody vegetation. This represents a degradation of vegetation cover within this savanna landscape environment, largely due to an increasing number of elephants and other herbivores utilizing the Riverfront. The forested area along roads at a further distance from the River has also had a loss of percent cover. The continuous analysis during 1982–2011, utilizing monthly AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) values, also verifies this change in amount of vegetation is a continuous and ongoing process in this region. This study provides land use planners and managers with a more reliable, efficient and relatively inexpensive tool for analyzing land-cover change across these highly sensitive regions, and highlights the usefulness of a Random Forest classification in conjunction with time series analysis for monitoring savanna landscapes.