Ongoing and projected changes in climate are expected to alter discharge and water temperature in riverine systems, thus resulting in degraded habitat. Climate adaptation management strategies are proposed to serve as buffers to changes in air temperature and precipitation, with these strategies potentially providing relatively stable protection for flow and thermal regimes. Using a hydrologic and water temperature modeling approach in the Meramec River basin in eastern Missouri, U.S.A., we examined the ability of forested riparian buffers to serve as a useful climate adaptation strategy against ongoing and projected changes in climate. We developed a multi-scale approach using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic and water temperature models as well as a Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP) with different amounts of simulated riparian vegetation to estimate streamflow and water temperature variation within the Meramec River basin under both contemporary and projected future climate conditions. Our results suggest that riparian buffers offer benefits to mitigating increases in water temperature due to shading effects; however, patterns in discharge did not vary substantially based on simulations. From an ecological perspective, the addition of riparian buffers is also projected to reduce the impacts of climate change on Smallmouth Bass (Micropterus dolomieu) by decreasing the number of days water temperatures exceed the thermal tolerance of this species.

Climate change is a primary factor influencing alterations in watershed hydrology. Associated changes in temperature and precipitation can influence the fate and transport of non-point source pollution within a watershed, which complicates the application of best management practices (BMPs) for pollution mitigation. Understanding the sensitivity of BMP implementation as climate change is critical for proper management of water resources. The objective of this study is to understand the effects of BMPs on sediment and nutrient yields in the Meramec River watershed in eastern Missouri, U.S.A due to changes in climate. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model the flow, sediment and nutrient yields across the watershed. Multi-site calibration (1996-2012) and validation (1981-1995; 2012-2014) gave varied results, ranging from very good to acceptable, for the monthly flow, sediment load, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP). Various BMPs were implemented into the calibrated model in conjunction with climate data from four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) projections to estimate the effects of climate change on watershed yields. Implemented BMPs include riparian buffers, vegetated filter strips, terrace, grassed waterway, and tillage. BMPs were implemented in subwatersheds with high sediment and nutrient outputs as well as relatively high ecological value. Results indicate that BMPs could achieve reductions in a range from 2 to 76% for sediment loss, 1 to 64% for TN loss, and 5 to 54% for TP loss. Among the individual BMPs assessed, vegetated filter strips were most effective when considering the reduction in sediment and nutrient loads. This study highlights the effectiveness of a range of BMPs in reducing the sediment and nutrient loads and provides quantitative measures for determining the most effective individual BMP and the optimal combination of BMPs based on current and future climate scenarios.