Widespread ice shelf thinning has been recorded in the Amundsen Sea in recent decades, driven by basal melting and intrusions of relatively warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) onto the continental shelf. The Dotson Ice Shelf (DIS) is located to the south of the Amundsen Sea polynya, and has a high basal melting rate because modified CDW (mCDW) fills the Dotson‐Getz Trough (DGT) and reaches the base of the ice shelf. Here, hydrographic data in the DGT obtained during seven oceanographic surveys from 2007 to 2018 were used to study the interannual variation in mCDW volume and properties and their causes. Although mCDW volume showed relatively weak interannual variations at the continental shelf break, these variations intensified southward and reached a maximum in front of the DIS. There, the mCDW volume was ∼8,000 km³ in 2007, rapidly decreased to 4,700 km³ in 2014 before rebounding to 7,300 km³ in 2018. We find that such interannual variability is coherent with local Ekman pumping integrated along the DGT modulated by the presence of sea ice, and complementing earlier theories involving shelf break winds only. The interannual variability in strength of the dominant south‐southeast coastal wind modulates the amplitude of Ekman upwelling along the eastern boundary of the Amundsen Sea polynya during the austral summers of the surveyed years, apparently leading to change in the volume of mCDW along the DGT. We note a strong correlation between the wind variability and the longitudinal location of the Amundsen Sea Low.

Global climate models (GCMs) have limited capacity in simulating spatially non-uniform sea-level rise owing to their coarse resolutions and absence of tides in the marginal seas. Here, regional ocean climate models (RCMs) that consider tides were used to address these limitations in the Northwest Pacific marginal seas through dynamical downscaling. Four GCMs that drive the RCMs were selected based on a performance evaluation along the RCM boundaries, and the latter were validated by comparing historical results with observations. High-resolution (1/20°) RCMs were used to project non-uniform changes in the sea-level under intermediate (RCP 4.5) and high-end emissions (RCP 8.5) scenarios from 2006 to 2100. The predicted local sea-level rise was higher in the East/Japan Sea (EJS), where the currents and eddy motions were active. The tidal amplitude changes in response to sea-level rise were significant in the shallow areas of the Yellow Sea (YS). Dynamically downscaled simulations enabled the determination of practical sea-level rise (PSLR), including changes in tidal amplitude and natural variability. Under RCP 8.5 scenario, the maximum PSLR was ∼85 cm in the YS and East China Sea (ECS), and ∼78 cm in the EJS. The contribution of natural sea-level variability changes in the EJS was greater than that in the YS and ECS, whereas changes in the tidal contribution were higher in the YS and ECS. Accordingly, high-resolution RCMs provided spatially different PSLR estimates, indicating the importance of improving model resolution for local sea-level projections in marginal seas.

Shaha, D. C.; Cho, Y.-K., and Kim, T.-W., 2013. Effects of river discharge and tide driven sea level variation on saltwater intrusion in Sumjin River estuary: An application of finite-volume coastal ocean model. Salinity intrusion is one of the major problems in the Sumjin River Estuary (SRE). An unstructured-grid finite-volume coastal ocean model (FVCOM) was used to investigate the influence of different river discharges and tide driven sea level variation on salinity intrusion in the SRE. The variation of salt intrusion was predicted according to the variation of sea level driven by tide along the open boundary and the river discharge upstream. The model simulation results are in qualitative agreement with the available field data. The model provided a skilled reproduction of the observed temporal and spatial variability in salinity. The ebb flow is seaward from upstream to the mouth of the SRE. The river discharge is a dominant factor affecting salinity intrusion in this estuarine system durin...

To examine the evolution of the wind‐driven flows in the Yellow Sea (YS) during winter, ocean circulation was simulated using a three‐dimensional ocean model with realistic topography and atmospheric forcing. The simulated sea surface temperature, ocean currents, and path of the Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC) agreed with observations. Southward currents along the Korean coast and the Chinese coast in winter were also effectively identified. Spectra of the daily mean winds and the YSWC velocities in the subsurface layer had dominant peaks at 12 and 20 day periods. Time‐lagged correlation analysis suggested that the downwind flow in the surface layer reacts concurrently to the northwesterly wind in winter whereas the subsurface layer responds with a delay. One day after the wind burst, an upwind current in the subsurface layer appeared in the center of the trough, whereas the downwind flow in the surface layer decreased significantly. Two days later, the upwind flow in the subsurface layer shifted to the west of the trough while the downwind flow along the Korean coast strengthened. These flow responses to the wind variations resulted in a clockwise circulation in the YS during winter.

This study presents future climate change projections in the Northwest Pacific (NWP) marginal seas using dynamic downscaling from global climate models (GCMs). A regional climate model (RCM) for the Northwest Pacific Ocean was setup and integrated over the period from 2001 to 2100. The model used forcing fields from three different GCM simulations to downscale the effect of global climate change. MIROC, ECHAM, and HADCM were selected to provide climate change signals for the RCM. These signals were calculated from the GCMs using Cyclostationary Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis and added to the present lateral open boundary and the surface forcing. The RCM was validated by comparing hindcast result with the observation. It was able to project detailed regional climate change processes that GCMs were not able to resolve. A relatively large increases of water temperature were found in the marginal seas. However, only a marginal change was found along the Kuroshio path. Heat supply to the atmosphere decreases in most study areas due to a slower warming of the sea surface compared to the atmosphere. The RCM projection suggests that the temperature of the Yellow Sea Bottom Cold Water will gradually increase by 2100. Volume transports through major straits except the Taiwan Strait in the marginal seas are projected to increase slightly in future. Increased northeasterly wind stress in the East China Sea may also result in the transport change.