Departament de Física de la Matèria Condensada and Institute of Complex Systems (UBICS), Universitat de Barcelona, Martí i Franquès 1, E-08028 Barcelona, Spain
Prof. Dr. Miquel Montero
Departament de Física de la Matèria Condensada and Institute of Complex Systems (UBICS), Universitat de Barcelona, Martí i Franquès 1, E-08028 Barcelona, Spain
We apply the formalism of the continuous-time random walk to the study of financial data. The entire distribution of prices can be obtained once two auxiliary densities are known. These are the probability densities for the pausing time between successive jumps and the corresponding probability density for the magnitude of a jump. We have applied the formalism to data on the U.S. dollar-deutsche mark future exchange, finding good agreement between theory and the observed data.
In this paper we consider a stochastic process that may experience random reset events which suddenly bring the system to the starting value and analyze the relevant statistical magnitudes. We focus our attention on monotonic continuous-time random walks with a constant drift: The process increases between the reset events, either by the effect of the random jumps, or by the action of the deterministic drift. As a result of all these combined factors interesting properties emerge, like the existence (for any drift strength) of a stationary transition probability density function, or the faculty of the model to reproduce power-law-like behavior. General formulas for two extreme statistics, the survival probability, and the mean exit time are also derived. To corroborate in an independent way the results of the paper, Monte Carlo methods were used. These numerical estimations are in full agreement with the analytical predictions.
In this paper we consider a particular version of the random walk with restarts: random reset events which suddenly bring the system to the starting value. We analyze its relevant statistical properties, like the transition probability, and show how an equilibrium state appears. Formulas for the first-passage time, high-water marks, and other extreme statistics are also derived; we consider counting problems naturally associated with the system. Finally we indicate feasible generalizations useful for interpreting different physical effects.
25 September 2017 in The European Physical Journal B
We present a general formulation of the resetting problem which is valid for any distribution of resetting intervals and arbitrary underlying processes. We show that in such a general case, a stationary distribution may exist even if the reset-free process is not stationary, as well as a significant decreasing in the mean first-passage time. We apply the general formalism to anomalous diffusion processes which allow simple and explicit expressions for Poissonian resetting events.
1 August 2006 in Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization