Prenatal screening for Down syndrome (DS) is widely performed at 11 to 14 weeks of gestation by using a combination of maternal age, measurements of fetal nuchal translucency by ultrasonography, and maternal serum concentrations of free human chorionic gonadotropin and plasma protein A.
1 Various cutoffs of risk have been chosen to offer invasive testing (IT) as a second step, usually between 1 in 100 and 1 in 300.
1 More recently, noninvasive prenatal testing (NIPT) using cell-free DNA circulating in maternal plasma has emerged as an intermediate step within a conditional screening algorithm, as the positive predictive value of combined screening is around 1 in 16 for DS.
2-7 In contrast with IT, which involves a risk of miscarriage but provides full information on all possible chromosomal abnormalities, NIPT carries no risk of miscarriage but only provides information on the targeted abnormalities and only in terms of very high likelihood of their presence or absence. Indeed, the accuracy of cell-free-DNA to detect DS is around 99% with a 0.1% false-positive rate, and IT is carried out to confirm a positive result.
8 As a result, NIPT therefore involves both a risky, although almost certain, component about targeted abnormalities together with an uncertain component about nontargeted abnormalities. In addition to the well-known attractiveness of certainty in decision making (also known as the certainty effect
9,10), presenting information involving both risky and uncertain components is known to trigger ambiguity aversion
11,12 as a result of a preference for known risks (probabilities) over unknown risks.
13 Decision making between IT and NIPT could therefore be driven by aversion toward ambiguous information as much as by IT-related pregnancy loss risk aversion.